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Weak signals
A weak signal is an indicator of a potentially emerging issue that may become significant in the future. Weak signals supplement trend analysis and can be used to expand alternate futures by challenging assumptions. Weak signals are characterized by novelty, surprise, challenging existing assumptions, potential future significance, and a delay before becoming important. They can be identified through horizon scanning and used to highlight future assumptions and expand the selection of alternate futures.
Weak signals
- 1. What is aweak signal?
- 2. What is aweak signal? A weak signal is an indicator of a potentially emerging issue, that may become significant in the future. Weak signals supplement trend analysis and they can be used to expand on alternate futures.
- 3. There are threeways to approach the future. 1. Identify the development trends that are clearly evident in the present and to consider their consequences. 2. Discuss the desired alternate futures and how they should be constructed 3. Often receives less attention, is expanding on the futures. Its goal is to expand on the selection of futures and to challenge the assumptions made about the future.
- 4. The third approach,which often receives less attention, is expanding on the futures. Its goal is to expand on the selection of futures and to challenge the assumptions made about the future. This is beneficial both to planning futures and preparing for them. With more identified futures, one encounters fewer surprising situations and preparing for them becomes easier. From a vast selection of futures, it may also be possible to discover desirable futures that one had not considered before.
- 5. Weak signals asexpanders of futures A weak signal is the first indicator of a change or an emerging issue that may become significant in the future.
- 6. Weak signals areoften identified as a part of horizon scanning (environmental scanning) that supplements trend analysis and can be used as a foundation for defining wild cards.
- 7. Weak signals canalso be used to highlight future assumptions, challenge our perceptions of futures and to expand the selection of alternate futures.
- 8. What actually isa weak signal? 1. The thing or phenomenon itself 2. The signal – the news items, photo, service, object, story or event that describes the subject 3. The interpretation, which refers to how the signal is received, how it is linked to the interpreter’s own view and world view and how it is used.
- 9. Weak signals comprisethe following characteristics: 1. Novelty: a weak signal is an indicator of something new or a new perspective on a known subject 2. Surprising: a weak signal is surprising to its interpreter 3. Challenging: a weak signal forces one to challenge existing assumptions and is therefore often difficult to detect or easy to overlook 4. Significance: a weak signal describes something that may have an impact on the future 5. Delay: a weak signal describes something that is not yet significant but requires time to mature
- 10. Similar concepts toweak signals include silent signals, seeds of change and advance warning indicators. Occasionally, wild cards and black swans are also associated with weak signals. However, they are more about a sudden event or phenomenon that may have generated weak signals.
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