Vulnerability of Uttarakhand State against Covid 19
1. VULNERABILITY OF UTTARAKHAND STATE
AGAINST COVID 19
G.B.P.I.E.T. Pauri, Garhwal
Dr. Dilip Kumar(Asst. Professor) 1
Under the Supervision of :
Presented By
Aakash Joshi (160501)
Devashish Negi (160517)
Shivam Badoni (160555)
Sachin Mohan Singh(160551)
7/31/2023
2. INTRODUCTION
• News about the coronavirus pandemic is alarming.
• Overwhelming number of cases and fatalities everyday.
• Social distancing, lockdown, quarantine and many more measures are taken into
account to prevent the spread.
• Preliminary analysis shows that the drop in the country GDP will be sustained.
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3. WHY THIS PROJECT?
• This project will focus on information about vulnerability against COVID-19.
• This project will also focus on the vulnerability index of different regions.
• Awareness on stress management and resilience of workers working in the
pandemic.
• Need of resilience at the community level.
• Challenges ahead and lessons to learn.
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5. STRESS RESILIENCE
• Distress and anxiety are normal reactions to a situation like a coronavirus
pandemic.
• It results in a change in concentration, irritability, anxiety, insomnia, reduced
productivity and interpersonal conflicts.
• To keep stress level to the minimum we should seek information only from a
trusted source.
• Fact check information with World Health Organization.
• Protect yourself and be supportive of others.
• Proper sleep and healthy eating habits should be maintained.
• Keep in regular contact with your family members.
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6. RESILIENCE IN HEALTHCARE WORKERS
• Healthcare workers work at the front lines of the coronavirus outbreak.
• They are particularly at increased risk for ‘MORAL INJURY’ when dealing with
the ethical challenges of the coronavirus pandemic.
• Several resources and strategies are recommended as-
1. team support
2. stress monitoring
3. taking care of oneself
4. taking breaks regularly
5. connecting with others
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7. RESILIENCE AT COMMUNITY LEVEL
• Resilience also exists at the community level.
• Certain level of shared resilience needed to overcome stress.
• Shared resilience is needed not only at the national level but at a global level.
• Government should provide quick and accurate information interpreted by all
individuals of the community.
• Communication process will increase perceived control and likely reduces
psychological stress.
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8. STATE RESPONSE
• Implementation of lockdown was abrupt, poorly
conceived and underprepared.
• The country failed to prevent the import of the
virus and break the channel even with the early
shutdown of international travels.
• Even though certain other measures were also
taken but the implementation was not proper.
• The country also failed to check the interstate
and urban to rural mobility-related issues until
the first lockdown.
• After the first lockdown there was no thermal
screening of enormous working-age population
moving to their hometown.
SOURCE : MOHFW ( www.mohfw.gov.in)
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9. EDUCATION DISRUPTIONS
• Decision was taken to close academic institution in the mid of the outbreak.
• Lack of planning will have a long-term repercussion on ongoing academic year
and mental health outcomes of students.
• Parents are less likely to send their children unless a pandemic is declared over.
• A majority of academic institutions do not have a catastrophic resilient system,
unlike its developed counterparts.
• Online classes was not the proper solution due to lack of proper interaction and
poor internet connectivity.
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10. CHALLENGES AHEAD AND LESSONS
• Lack of preparedness for COVID-19 resulted in a huge social, economic and
health consequences.
• Sudden lockdown was a result of poor resilience of the country’s socio-economic
and health care system to tackle the disease outbreak.
• High time to foresee impact of pandemic and take adequate steps to be resilience
to face the future pandemic.
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11. LITERATURE REVIEW
Work of Lucy Platt
• Focuses mainly on vulnerability of minorities.
• Simply comparing mortalities with overall population fails to take account of key
characteristics of different groups.
• In varied profiles of different ethnic groups, some are more likely to be vulnerable
than the others.
• Based on UK’s minority ethnic groups.
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12. LITERATURE REVIEW
Key findings:
• Most minorities are also younger on average than the population as a whole,
which should make them less vulnerable.
• Men from minority groups are more likely to be affected by the shutdown.
• Black Africans and Pakistanis would be expected to have fewer fatalities per
capita than white British.
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13. LITERATURE REVIEW
Work of Luba Sominsky
• Focuses on vulnerability of children, women and old people.
• Suggest children are not likely to be at high risk of severe damage.
• The elderly and those suffering from chronic medical conditions are also at high
risk.
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14. LITERATURE REVIEW
Work of E. Jordan
• Focuses mainly on health vulnerability.
• Case fatality rates are difficult to assess with certainty .
• Obesity and Smoking were associated with increased risks.
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15. METHODOLOGY
• Vulnerability Index
“Evaluation and Quantification of mortality and morbidity risk”
• Data from different sources was taken.
• There were 5 major factors, each of which have their own sub factors.
• Due to lack of personal data of the patients, weightage has to be assumed.
• Final vulnerability index was calculated.
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16. SOURCES
• National Family Health Survey 2015–16
• Census of India 2011
• Rural Health Statistics 2018
• National Health Profile 2019
• Factsheet Uttarakhand 2018
• Uttarakhand -Census of India 2011
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17. FACTORS UNDER CONSIDERATION
• Socioeconomic condition
• Demographic composition
• Housing and hygiene condition
• Availability of health-care facilities
• Epidemiological factors
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23. DATA COLLECTION
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Uttarakhand Almora Bageshwar Chamoli Champawat Dehradun Haridwar Nainital Pauri Garhwal Pithoragarh Rudraprayag Tehri Garhwal Udham Singh
Nagar
Uttarkashi
PERCENTAGE
DISTRICT
IMMUNIZATION
Children aged 12-23 months having Immunization Card (%) Children aged 12-23 months who have received BCG (%) Children aged 12-23 months who have received 3 doses of Polio vaccine (%)
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24. DATA COLLECTION
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Almora Bageshwar Chamoli Champawat Dehradun Haridwar Nainital Pauri Garhwal Pithoragarh Rudraprayag Tehri Garhwal Udham Singh
Nagar
Uttarkashi
NUMBER
OF
INFECTED
PERSONS
PER
YEAR
DISTRICT
DIFFERENT DISEASES
Diarrhoea AIR Fever Hyper Tension Diabetes TB Asthma Arthritis
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25. CALCULATIONS
• Due to lack of information about infected persons, a proper and exact vulnerability
factor can’t be calculated.
• Therefore we have to assume the weightage for different factors.
• This assumption is based on many previously mentioned factors.
• Many time we have gone through hit and trials.
• The model can give precise results if the government provide data in public
domain, which is near to impossible.
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26. CALCULATIONS
Weightage
Different Factors Weightage
percentage of people under 5000INR wage -0.00005
literacy rate -0.00833
sex ratio -0.00013
population density 0.000875
percentage of people with age between (15-59 years) 0.015
percentage of urban population -0.0025
percentage of children fully immunized -0.004
number of people suffering from acute respiratory disease 0.013
number of people suffering from fever 0.0015
number of people suffering from tuberculosis 0.0025
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27. CALCULATIONS
• Calculations were made to get the final Vulnerability Index.
• An example on one of the calculations is
Haridwar
• 62(-0.00005) + 73(-0.0083) + 88(-0.0001) + 319(0.00088) + 54(0.015) + 38(-
0.0025) + 61(-0.004) + 42(0.013) + 220(0.0015) + 37(0.0025) + 7(0.0125) =
0.892966
• The final result is shown in the next slide.
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28. RESULTS Final Vulnerability Index of all Districts of Uttarakhand
District Vulnerability Index
Almora 0.02735
Bageshwar 0.195325
Chamoli 0.165725
Champawat 0.222675
Dehradun 0.264458
Haridwar 0.892966
Nainital 0.139725
Pauri 0.149775
Pithoragarh 0.127625
Rudraprayag 0.246025
Tehri Garhwal 0.7303
Udham Singh Nagar 0.230775
Uttarkashi 0.391125 28
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30. CONCLUSION (Regarding Initial Studies)
• The success stories of other countries shows massive tracing and testing can slow
the process.
• Education system, job opportunities, health care and daily wage workers were
highly affected.
• Pandemic make women more vulnerable and increase gender-based violence so
gender-responsive measures are critically needed.
• Fake news increases stress level so it should be avoided as much as possible.
• Massive fall in GDP is observed after the removal of lockdown.
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31. CONCLUSION (Regarding Vulnerability Index)
• Our calculations provides a relative position of a district compared with other
districts in the state, rather than being an absolute score.
• Testing of our vulnerability index is not possible as there is no known measure of
comparison.
• Equal weights were given to each parameter which will lead to variation from
correct index.
• The use of an overall index alongside domain-specific vulnerability index is
recommended.
• HARIDWAR is more vulnerable to the spread of virus (but the data was
incomplete).
• The study of such factors is must so that we can be prepared for future pandemic.
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32. REFERENCES
1. M.I. Khan, A. Abraham - No ‘room’ for social distancing: a look at India's
housing and sanitation conditions, p-55
2. Government of India - Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment. State-
wise percentage of population below poverty line by social groups, 2004–05
3. World Health Organization, 2020 - Rolling updates on coronavirus disease -
coping with stress
4. Annual Health Survey (2012-13) - Fact Sheet
5. E.R. de Kloet - Stress and the brain: from adaptation to disease, pp. 463-475
6. MoHFW – Ministry of health and Family Welfare, Government of India
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