Visualising and forming a context based agile strategy

17/08/2020 Craig Cockburn, www.craigcockburn.com @siliconglen #strategymaps
Hello, I’m Craig Cockburn*
www.craigcockburn.com
Twitter: @siliconglen #strategymaps
*Same pronunciation as Alistair, Agile Manifesto co-author
Visualising the “Why” - Strategy and Roadmaps in context
How to form an agile strategy and visualise it in a complex landscape
licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license

Strategy matters to all of us
• People who create strategy
• Review strategy
• Implement any part of a strategy
• Have strategic insight
• Coach others in strategy
• At any level of the organisation
Audience

1. What strategy is
2. Why this matters
3. A worked example
4. A visualisation template
5. Practices to build strategy
6. Key takeaways
7. Any Questions
What I’ll cover

Intro Problem Using the proposal Recap OngoingProposed solution
Structure of the talk

A story of discovery
via Roman Pichler’s
roadmaps and Simon
Wardley’s mapping

Battle of Thermopalae 480BC
“Corporate strategy”:
• Be the leading army!
• Win 3 battles this year!
• Expand territory!
• Be in the magic quadrant for territory expanders this year!
Slide pictures: Simon Wardley

1. Understand the landscape where the battle will likely take place
2. Lay traps in the land.
3. Defend ourselves using protective shielded formation (shiltrons)
4. Take the high ground, this conferring an advantage of line of sight and battle attack.
5. Hem the English army in between the Scots army, the boggy ground and the Bannock Burn.
6. This caused them to break rank, lose coordination and flee homeward (to think again!)
Landscape, situational tactics, purpose. Only 2 days.
Strategy not just for multi year big spends
Also, all maps are wrong but some are useful
The Scots defeated an English army more than double their size
by using an effective strategy
Battle of Bannockburn, 23/24 June 1314

Intro Problem Proposed solution Using the proposal Recap Ongoing
Time
Talk Progress 1/6
How
ContentKeyPoints
Intro
Battles
Wardley
Roman
Pichler
Mapping
Who is
Craig &
how this
originated

Understanding the
strategy problem

Poll: What's your
knowledge of strategy?

Strategy: A coherent & contextual plan to deliver outcomes
Outcome: Has lasting value in realising the vision
Vision: The desired future state
Tactics: Supporting activities in the strategy which affect the
likelihood of success
Definitions

• Vision (future state) realised by outcomes
(or mission or objectives)
• Outcomes delivered by Strategy
• Strategy supported by Tactics
• Progress Measured by key results
A “to do list” is not a strategy. Beware cargo cult
Definition Context

Culture Eats Strategy for
Breakfast
Peter Drucker
Common Myths Debunked

Culture Myths Debunked
It is your culture which helps your strategy.
Therefore, these are complimentary rather than exclusive.
Drucker isn’t attributable as the source
See http://bit.ly/CultureStrategyQuote and
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/05/23/culture-eats/
“Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast”

The seven deadly sins
of cargo cult
1. Copying what other people do without context
Even this bridge has context!

17/08/2020
Craig Cockburn, www.craigcockburn.com @siliconglen
#strategymaps
We still have cameras.
We still watch films.
We still buy phones.
We still buy toys. ☺
e.g. Kodak, Blockbuster, Nokia, Toys ‘R Us
We’re sometimes poor at applying
effective strategy in business
Made respirators
from 1930s to 1990s
*

We’re sometimes poor at applying
effective strategy in other things…

Poll: How often is
your strategy updated?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/palomacanterogomez/2019/02/05/the-7-critical-skills-of-successful-strategic-thinkers
In a study conducted by
Harvard Business Review,
97% of the 10,000 senior executives
asked chose
strategy
as the most critical leadership behaviour
to their organizations’ future success
The need

Business Agility Institute report 2018
https://agilityhealthradar.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/BAI-Business-Agility-Report-2018.pdf, Page 12
By a large margin, leadership is the biggest challenge to business agility
adoption that most organizations face.
With the right mindset and associated organizational support, a leader sets the
tone for the entire organization.
Yet, often, the inverse is also true - in the absence of a motivating leader, the
organization can stagnate. Respondents to the survey raised a lack of agile
mindset, unclear or changing vision, and limited practical support for the
transformation as the top three challenges for (and from) leaders.
The reality

#strategymaps
17/08/2020
Short URL: http://bit.ly/Agile-Failure-Patterns
Information from
• Surveys (e.g. Version One)
• Consulting groups
• Agile coaches
• Newspaper articles
It’s about leadership.
Agile Failure Patterns

Time
Talk Progress 2/6
How
ContentKeyPoints
Intro
Corporate
Failures
Agile
Failures
Brexit
Struggles
Battles
Wardley
Roman
Pichler
Cargo
Cult
DruckerMapping
Language
Who is
Craig &
how this
originated
Case studies
and impact of
getting things
wrong

What does SAFe® say?
“Most strategy dialogues end up with executives talking at cross-purposes because …
nobody knows exactly what is meant by vision and strategy, and no two people ever
quite agree on which topics belong where*.
That is why, when you ask members of an executive team to describe and explain the
corporate strategy, you frequently get wildly different answers. We just don’t have a
good business discipline for converging on issues this abstract.”
—Geoffrey Moore, “Escape Velocity”
https://www.scaledagileframework.com/organizational-agility/
*My definitions were covered earlier
17/08/2020
#strategymaps

Strategy Agility
Strategy Agility is the ability to change and implement new strategies quickly and
decisively when necessary, and to persevere on the strategies that are working—or
will work—if given sufficient focus and time.
Two of SAFe’s four core values are Alignment and Transparency
https://www.scaledagileframework.com/lean-agile-leadership/
17/08/2020
#strategymaps

17/08/2020
#strategymaps
Strategy Agility – The enterprise is Agile enough to continuously
sense the market, and quickly change strategy when necessary

Poll: Is your strategy
useful in your daily job?

17/08/2020
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Strategy
in product based settings

https://www.romanpichler.com/blog/should-product-roadmaps-have-dates/
From Company vision to product backlog
From Roman Pichler,
“Strategize”
The Product Roadmap in context

17/08/2020
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Strategy cycle

Description of the environment
Forces that affect the environment
Operating
techniques and
beliefs
Context specific decisions
Why does this matter to us?

• Strategy needs a compelling story and committed people.
• The dynamics of competitors and when you need to act
• Also remember culture & strategy are not mutually exclusive
• Half of the Agile manifesto values –
Individuals & Interactions and Customer Collaboration…
• Regular updates in line with feedback and changing
circumstances because of complexity
• Not a to-do list to fossilise on a slide deck for 5 years.
Frequently missing

https://human.associates/category/spaces/
Ian McLaren Wallace
winner of Excellent Innovation in Business Psychology
If this is how we
process evolving
knowledge
Then why do we
assume a fixed
strategy?

Devising strategy in a complex, uncertain,
evolving landscape with competing parties
- or -
Understanding strategic moves
from the chaos that was Brexit

• Leave? What sort of leave?
• Remain? How?
What are the other motives?
• Irish unionism or nationalism?
• Scottish nationalism or unionism?
• Toppling government or supporting it?
• Profit by shorting stocks or currency?

• Competing groups
• Fractured groups
• No clear majority
• Hidden private strategy
• Lack of compromise
• Lots at stake
• No precedent as reference
Landscape static –
just have to work with it

• This was rapidly evolving
• The clock was running down
• The government lost its majority
• Legal action changed things
• Propaganda / Misinformation
The climate is dynamic and alters the
effect of the landscape

Brexit
representing
competing
outcomes,
probabilities,
pathways and
decisions
(Strategy absent)
https://jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/
11th April 2019
Source:

Visualise the Brexit Diagram above on its
side. Time is on the X axis going left to
right. Position has meaning, the map shows
time mapped against the probability of
achieving an outcome with intermediary
steps and resultant probabilities for the
outcomes you want and the outcomes that
are favourable to the competition (not unlike
business, or playing chess).

The seven Brexit goals in
the diagram are scored in
according to their coherence
with outcomes you prefer

Evaluate the pathway options leading to
the desired outcomes and avoiding the
worst outcomes. Discover the risky
points which you need to traverse but
which could also be favourable to
opponents if they go the wrong way for
you. These need particular attention.
See Red Team Thinking

Using this information you can formulate a context
specific flexible strategy based on the pathways
which lead to successful outcomes and steer you
away from the worst outcomes.
Proactive agile + reactive agile
together

See Strategy Maps http://bit.ly/Strategy-Maps
Revoke A50
Peoples Vote
General Election
Softer Brexit
Unclear Extension
May’s Deal
No Deal Brexit
(11th April 2019)
Reflection points

Simplified
See Strategy Maps http://bit.ly/Strategy-Maps
• The points on the Brexit diagram leading to the outcome(s) you want
become your roadmap
• You look at where you are going and where your opponents are
trying to go in order to shift the odds in your favour
• You update the roadmap when you reach a reflection point
• If things aren’t going your way, maybe you need a different strategy
(before it’s too late and your party loses the election and its leader!)

Reflection
So how did the Brexit map do in amongst all this complexity? It worked.
• Series 1 just showed what could happen (no probabilities)
• Series 2 had Brexit Delay. That's what we got (in March/April 2019)
• Series 3 foresaw a General Election called. That's what we got (in October 2019)
• Series 4 showed Brexit with Johnson's Deal as most likely. (happened). Data here.
Covered by press in Germany, Netherlands, NY Times. Despite being useful, largely
ignored by the UK media (and political parties that ended up losing their leaders)
In the world of strategic decision making we should be guided by facts rather than
opinions no matter how many inconvenient truths we uncover
https://jonworth.eu/brexit-where-now-the-flow-diagrams/
17/08/2020
#strategymaps

Time
Talk Progress 3/6
How
ContentKeyPoints
Intro
Corporate
Failures
Agile
Failures
Brexit
Struggles
Battles
Wardley
Roman
Pichler
Cargo
Cult
DruckerMapping
Language
Who is
Craig &
how this
originated
Case studies
and impact of
getting things
wrong
Strategy in SAFe
Strategy
informing
roadmaps and
backlogs
Strategy and
human knowledge
Human space arcs
Strategy Cycle /
OODA
Application of
strategy
cycle to Brexit
Traverse
diagram to
produce
roadmap
Review of the
Brexit diagram
Use and review of a
visualisation practice
using Brexit model
Strategy in
context

Applying this approach

SituationalContext
(landscape,climateanddoctrine)
Neutral or unknown
Tactical Advantage,
opportunity enablement,
increased capability
Advantageous to competitors.
Risks, dysfunctions, group think,
Insufficient corporate practices/leadership
Now Future
Time
Embedded gains / Successful delivery
Embedded losses / Competitor’s delivery
IncreasingAdvantage(KeyResults)
FavourableoutcomesUnfavourableoutcomes
Strategy map template
VisionCompetitor’svision

SituationalContext
Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
Example
VisionCompetitor’sVision
Usually
start
here
Usually
aim here

Tryingtodoagiletransformation
Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
The Plan
Old job
roles
Roll out
new roles
All rolled
out
Transformed!

Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
The Reality
Old job
roles
Roll out
new roles
Fear and
distrust
Entrenched
resistance
Fail

Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
SuccessfulagilepeopleGreatpeoplehavegone
Try this
OrganisationalsuccessCompetitor’sVision
Old job
roles
Pilot new
roles
Inspect &
adapt
Change
approach
Get pilot
group
All rolled
out
Different
approachExpand pilot
Potential fail

Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
Initial roadmap
Old job
roles
Pilot new
roles
Inspect &
adapt
Change
approach
Get pilot
group
All rolled
out
Different
Potential fail

Now Future
Time
IncreasingAdvantage
..and Initial Plan B!
Old job
roles
Pilot new
roles
Inspect &
adapt
Change
approach
Get pilot
group
All rolled
out
Different
Potential fail

1. Understand the present — where are we now?
2. What outcomes support the vision? Futurespectives
3. Use red team thinking to explore alternative views (premortem)
4. Plan to a realistic horizon —too deep or far is waste. (Cynefin)
5. Connect the present to the future — primary path and alternatives
– right to left & left to right
6. Refine the model — evaluate probabilities, risks, impacts on
people and the system, who are the actors and lines of influence?
7. Regularly inspect and adapt – via reflection points/OKRs/ Heart of
Agile - reflect to Improve.
Suggested approach
More detail at http://bit.ly/Strategy-Maps
Have open, effective collaboration

Do we need much
planning here? If it’s
obvious, the plan
should be very simple
Use specialist
knowledge to plan
and optimise with
certainty
Requires regular review,
feedback points, appropriate
experiments, highlighting of
unknowns, risks, and
alternate pathways
In a complex situation cause
and effect is non predictive.
Know the vision and the
goal, but act first. High risk,
unpredictable. Detailed
planning of limited value
Cynefin®
© 2020 Cognitive Edge
Employ Cynefin

Each reflection point in a
strategy map will correspond
to a domain in a Cynefin
diagram in order to guide how
you plan
Respect for Cynefin dynamics needed
Employ Cynefin

Earlier Strategy Maps
You may have heard the term strategy maps before - Appears in a book Strategy Maps:
Converting Intangible Assets into Tangible Outcomes by Robert S. Kaplan and David P. Norton.
Robert Kaplan is a US accounting academic and Emeritus Professor of Leadership Development at
the Harvard Business School
Originator of the balanced scorecard.
• Looks at financial, customer, internal and growth perspectives
• Doesn’t emphasise ordering, complexity, the how or the why of movement, therefore not a plan
• Doesn’t visualise tactics or non linear advantage,
• PowerPoint friendly
Read and contrast: https://hbr.org/2000/09/having-trouble-with-your-strategy-then-map-it
17/08/2020
#strategymaps

Time
Talk Progress 4/6
How
ContentKeyPoints
Intro
Corporate
Failures
Agile
Failures
Brexit
Struggles
Battles
Wardley
Roman
Pichler
Cargo
Cult
DruckerMapping
Language
Who is
Craig &
how this
originated
Case studies
and impact of
getting things
wrong
Strategy in SAFe
Strategy
informing
roadmaps and
backlogs
Strategy and
human knowledge
Human space arcs
Strategy Cycle /
OODA
Application of
strategy
cycle to Brexit
Traverse
diagram to
produce
roadmap
Review of the
Brexit diagram
Use and review of a
using Brexit model
Strategy in
context
Applying
the
temple
New
strategy
template
Template
Example
in action
Cynefin
Earlier
maps
compared
Like Football
Advantage is
non linear
Tactics for
usage

17/08/2020
#strategymaps
What about Wardley maps?

1. Wardley maps typically visualise movement in relation to
technical maturity and value stream
2. Wardley maps and strategy maps can work well together
3. Strategy maps aren’t just about technical maturity
4. Strategy maps are a generic way of visualising future
work, like a Kanban board
Helpful in context

Simon Wardley Keynote
“Crossing the river by feeling the stones”
-- Quote from Deng Xiaoping–
Available at:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IW9L1uNMCs
Wardley link

SituationalContext
Neutral or unknown
Tactical Advantage,
opportunity enablement,
increased capability
Advantageous to competitors,
opponents. Risks, things that slow
us down
Now Future
Time
Tactical Gains / Tactical Delivery
Tactical losses / Competitor’s delivery
IncreasingAdvantage
The river and the stones…

Leadership: Proactive anticipation.
Vision of meaningful outcomes.
Supporting people, innovation, culture
Agility: Responding to complexity.
Includes feedback, low cost of change.
Collaborate, Deliver, Reflect, Improve
Lean: improvement where
complicated. Includes visualisation
and elimination of waste. Flow
Effective Strategy
Areas of emphasis:
Individuals, People = Circle
Waste reduction = Lean
Complexity and Feedback = Agile
Responsible Strategy =
Leadership
Overlapping skills, tactics
and culture in support of
successful outcomes

Understand
context
Avoid to-do
lists
Open to all
Invite
feedback
Sufficient
planning
Account for
uncertainty
Make it visible
Shared
understanding
Review and
reflect
Steps for success

1. What you are doing & why you are doing it
2. Visual representation of being on track and the current situation
3. Intermediate tactical goals and how to achieve them
4. Multiple routes to favourable outcomes & avoiding pitfalls
5. Complexity
6. What your opponents might do
7. Unexploited opportunities
8. Timing and dependencies
9. Risks and consequences (involve Red Team Thinking)
10.Estimated probabilities
11.Pivot points
12.Everyone sharing the same view and able to provide feedback.
Strategy as an ongoing collaboration

Time
Talk Progress 5/6
How
ContentKeyPoints
Intro
Corporate
Failures
Agile
Failures
Brexit
Struggles
Battles
Wardley
Roman
Pichler
Cargo
Cult
DruckerMapping
Language
Who is
Craig &
how this
originated
Case studies
and impact of
getting things
wrong
Strategy in SAFe
Strategy
informing
roadmaps and
backlogs
Strategy and
human knowledge
Human space arcs
Strategy Cycle /
OODA
Application of
strategy
cycle to Brexit
Traverse
diagram to
produce
roadmap
Review of the
Brexit diagram
Use and review of a
using Brexit model
Strategy in
context
Key plus
points
Applying
the
temple
New
strategy
template
Template
Example
in action
Cynefin
Earlier
maps
compared
Wardley
link
Like Football
Advantage is
non linear
Tactics for
usage
Crossing
the river
by feeling
the stones
People,
Culture
Agile and
Lean
Key
steps
Main
plus
points

Strategy Maps - http://bit.ly/Strategy-Maps
Product delivery mapping - http://bit.ly/Delivery-Mapping
Wardley Maps – https://medium.com/wardleymaps
Roman Pichler - https://www.romanpichler.com/blog/elements-definition-product-strategy/
Declaration of Interdependence - http://bit.ly/Declaration-of-Interdependence
Heart of Agile - https://heartofagile.com/
Management 3.0 - https://management30.com/
Cynefin - http://alumni.media.mit.edu/~brooks/storybiz/kurtz.pdf and
https://cognitive-edge.com/videos/cynefin-framework-introduction/
Contact me: craig@siliconglen.com www.craigcockburn.com #strategymaps
Further Reading

Time
Summary
How
ContentKeyPoints
Intro
Corporate
Failures
Agile
Failures
Brexit
Struggles
Battles
Wardley
Roman
Pichler
Cargo
Cult
Drucker
Mapping
Language
Who is
Craig &
how this
originated
Case studies
and impact of
getting things
wrong
Strategy in SAFe
Strategy
informing
roadmaps and
backlogs
Strategy and
human knowledge
Human space arcs
Strategy Cycle /
OODA
Application of
strategy
cycle to Brexit
Traverse
diagram to
produce
roadmap
Review of the
Brexit diagram
Use and review of a
using Brexit model
Strategy in
context
Books
and
articles
Key plus
points
Applying
the
temple
New
strategy
template
Template Example
in action
Cynefin
Earlier
maps
compared
Wardley
link
Like Football
Advantage is
non linearTactics for
usage
Crossing
the river
by feeling
the stones
People,
Culture
Agile and
Lean
Key
steps
Main
plus
points
Books
Blogs
Key
people
Q&A
Key links

Visualising and forming a context based agile strategy

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