Potential Crisis Management Roles for Europe What Do Asia-Pacific States Want? What Could Europe Do? Presentation delivered by Vice Admiral (Retd) Yoji Koda at the RUSI European Crisis Management in the Asia-Pacific Conference, March 2017

1. Potential Crisis Management Roles for Europe
What Do Asia-Pacific States Want?
What Could Europe Do?
South China Sea and North Korea as Cases
Vice Admiral(R) Yoji KODA
Former Commander in Chief, JMSDF Fleet
European Crisis Management
in the Asia-Pacific
RUSI, London
Wednesday, 22nd March, 2017

2. JS Kaga Commissions: “017 March 22

3. South China Sea

4. Three Fundamental Issues
● Territorial Disputes
Maritime Features: What belongs Who?
- Islands, Rocks, Reefs, Atolls, Sand-bars, etc.
● Artificial Islands/Land Reclamation
Interpretation of UNCLOS
● High-Sea vs Nine Doted Line (China’s Water)
High Sea = Free Use for Everybody
China’s Water: = China’s Jurisdiction
Restricted Water against Free Use
Note: China Seemed Stop using “Nine Dash-Line”
After October. 2016=Xiangshan Forum

5. Territorial Disputes

6. Territorial Disputes
Natural Features in the Spratlys
Vietnam: 5
Philippines: 6
Malaysia: 1
Taiwan: 1
China: 0
PRC=Rocks
Reefs
Total: 13
Island with
Airstrip: 4

7. Spratly Islands (Controllers and Claimants)
Island’s Name Area
(SQ km)
Practical
Controllers
Claimants Air Facility
(R/W)
Itu Aba Is. 0.43 Taiwan V, P, PRC 1,150m
Thitu Is. 0.37 The Philippines V, PRC, T 1,300m
West York Is. 0.18 The Philippines V, PRC, T
Spratly Is. 0.13 Vietnam PRC, T 500m to1,200m
Northwest Cay 0.13 The Philippines V, PRC, T
Southwest Cay 0.12 Vietnam V, PRC, T
Sin Cowe Is 0.08 Vietnam V, PRC, T
Loaita Is. 0.07 Vietnam V, PRC, T
Nanshan Is. 0.08 The Philippines V, PRC, T
Swallow Reef 0.06 Malaysia PRC, T 1,300m
Mamyit Is. 0.05 Vietnam V, PRC, T
Flat Is. 0.04 The Philippines V, PRC, T
Central Reef 0.04 Vietnam V, PRC, T

8. Artificial Islands
Land Reclamation

9. Position of China
Why only me? Other nations are the same.
China: 3,200 Acres = 13,000 km2
400m x 3.3km x 3 Plus
Vietnam: 110 Acres = 450 km2
400m x 1.1km
Taiwan: 20 Acres = 80 km2
400m x 200m
Philippines: 10 Acres = 41 km2
60m x 700m
Malaysia: 70 Acres = 290 km2
200m x 1.4km

10. Reclamation(Expansion): Vietnam
Spratly Is. (V)
1,200m : 2016.11
Spratly Is. (V)
500m : 2014

11. Reclamation (Improvements): Taiwan
Itu Aba Is. (T) : 1,150m
2014
Itu Aba Is. (T) : 1,150m
2016: New Port Facility

12. Others Islands
The Philippines, Malaysia
Swallow Reef (M): 1,300m
Thitu Is. (P) : 1,300m

13. Reclamation (Improvements): China
20142017
RW: 2,400mRW: 2,700m
Woody Is. in Paracels

14. Artificial Island: Fiery Cross 2014-2016
From 0 (LTE) to An Is. With A/F and Port in Two Years

15. Artificial Island: China-1
3,150 x 60 m RW
First Landing
A-320
2016.1.6

16. Artificial Island: China-2
First Landing
B-737
2016.7.13
3,200 x 60 m RW

17. Artificial Island: China-3
First Landing
A-320
2016.7.13
2,650 x 55 m RW

18. Permanent Court of Arbitration

19. Verdict/Ruling-Subjects
• Nine-Dash Line
• Status of features as above/below water at high tide
• Status of features as rocks/islands
• Philippines' sovereign rights in its EEZ/Continental-shelf
• Preventing Chinese from exploiting the Philippines' resources
• China's actions on fishing at Scarborough Shoal
• Failure to protect and preserve the marine environment
• Occupation and construction activities on Mischief Reef
• Law enforcement vessels in a dangerous manner
• Aggravation or extension of the dispute between the parties
• Future conduct

20. Verdict/Ruling-Highlights
July 12, 2016
● A verdict by PCA:
China has no legal basis/historic claim
on the Nine-dash line.
● China: Rejected the ruling.

21. Artificial Island Building/Reclamation
Militarization or Commercial Developments

22. ????
BBC NEWS: August 10, 2016
But didn’t China promise it wouldn’t militarize the
SCS?
In his state visit to the US in September 2015, Xi
Jinping stated that China did not intend to pursue
militarisation of the Spratly islands.

23. Militarization: Fighter and SAM Deployment
Woody Island 2016.7.4
Su-24
Fiery Cross 2017.2.7
S-400

24. Scarborough Shoal: Potential Game Changer
23km-14mile
15km-9mile
16km-10mile
Possible Reclamation Area:
3,000m R/W x 2
Port Facility for Deep Draft Ships
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25. ●
China’s Objective
China’s Strategic Triangle in SCS
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Scarborough Shoal
Fiery Cross Reef
Woody Island
Sanya
700km
900km
650km
1,100km
Riau Islands (Indonesia)
Thitu Is. (P)
Spratly Is. (V)
Swallow Reef (M)
Itu Aba Is. (T)
Pratas Is. (T)
●
700km
Da Nang
Cam Ranh

26. Scarborough Shoal: Incident in 2016.4

27. China’s Position on Islands Militarization
● Force-deployment on the Islands: National Sovereignty
● Homeland Defensive Measure as a Sovereign Nation
● Not China but USA: Violation of Summit Agreement
Freedom Of Navigation Operations
- 2015.10: USS Lassen
- 2016. 1: USS Curtis Wilbur
- 2016. 5: USS W. P. Lawrence
- 2016.10: USS Decatur
U.S. Presence and Joint EXs with Regional Nations
Raise Tension and De-stabilize the Situation

28. High-Sea vs China’s Claimed Waters
Free Use of the High Seas

29. High-Sea vs China’s Claimed Waters
Japan and USA: Seafaring Nations
High Sea = Free Use for Everybody
Indisputable Universal Concept
China: Ground Power
South China Sea
China’s Water: = China’s Jurisdiction
Domestic Laws
Restricted Waters
No Free Use

30. SCS Summary

31. Position of Japan on SCS Issues-1
● Territorial Disputes
- Geographic Outsider
- Neutral to Any Nation’s Claim
- To Be Settled by Nations Concerned
Exception: China’s Use of Military Power for Settlement
Matters of International Cooperation: Europe`s Role
● Artificial Island Building/Reclamation
- China’s Self-righteous/Unilateral Maneuver
- Out of UNCLOS
- Potential Destruction of Global Maritime Order
Matter of Internationals Cooperation: Europe’s Role

32. Position of Japan on SCS Issues-2
● High-Sea vs China’s Claimed Waters
- Free Use of Sea: Universal Right of Humankind
- Japan: A Member of Free Use of Sea School
- Against Any Restrictive Attempts on Free Use
- China’s Claim: No Ground and Out of UNCLOS
- All Nations: Stakeholder on SCS Issues
China: Japan and USA=Geo-Outsider
Strongly Disagree
Cold Reality: Failure of U.S. Rebalancing
Matters of International Cooperation: Europe’s Role

33. North Korea

34. NK’s Ballistic Missiles
14,000km
2016.9 2017.3

35. Submarine Launched BM
Shinpo Class SSB
KN-11 SLBM
KN-11
Range：
500-1,000 km
Operation Area：
Sea of Japan
Target Nation：
ROK (S-Korea)
Japan

36. US’s Response-1
2016.10.6
PACOM Commander
Admiral H. Harris
Most serious threat that
keeps me awake: North Korea

37. US’s Response-2
U.S. SECSTATE Rex Tillerson
Beijing, March 19

38. USFK’s THAAD Deployment
RADAR Range
MSL Range
Protection Foot Print
Key: Sub Launched Ballistic Missiles
SLBM

39. THAAD and China
●
●
Kyo ga Saki
Shyariki

40. Position of China
Six Party Talks
Political Success but Widespread N-Korea Fatigue
• All N-Korea Issues Under China’s Supervision
• No USA’s Unilateral Action
N-Korea
Does not want Unified Democratic Korea
Keep N-Korea in Death Bed but Alive
S-Korea
Stronger Influence but Failing
Divide/Weaken Japan - USA - S-Korea Ties

41. Others

42. Another Destabilizer: Mekong River

43. Questions