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Build Your Own Valley: Engineering Startup & Investor Ecosystems in Emerging Markets Around the World (Hong Kong, April 2016)

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slides for my talk on Startup + Investor Ecosystems (Cyberport, Hong Kong, April 2016)

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Build Your Own Valley: Engineering Startup & Investor Ecosystems in Emerging Markets Around the World (Hong Kong, April 2016)

  1. @DaveMcClure @500Startups http://500.co Hong Kong - April 2016 Build Your Own Valley Engineering Startup + Investor Ecosystems In Emerging Markets Around the World
  2. • What is 500? – $250M silicon valley VC fund + startup accelerator – 125 people / 30 partners / 25 languages / 20 countries – 1500+ Companies / 3000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors – Investment, Accelerator, Distro, Marketing, Events, Education – Community + Content + Conferences • 1500+ Co’s / 50+ Countries – Credit Karma ($3.5B) – Twilio ($1B+) – Grab ($1B+) – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) – Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) – Behance (acq Adobe, $150M) – Simple (acq BBVA, $117M) – Sunrise (acq MSFT, $100M) – Udemy – Ipsy – TalkDesk – Intercom – 9GAG 500 Startups
 Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
  3. Dave McClure
 Founding Partner, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, Wildfire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq’d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  4. [ This Talk ] • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Building Tech Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • The “Lean” Investor + Portfolio Approach • Engineering Investor Ecosystems in Emerging Markets • Q&A
  5. Re-engineering a 50 year old sport: Venture Capital 2.0
  6. Football West Coast Offense Baseball MoneyBall Basketball 3 point revolution Venture Capital 500 Startups “Lots of little bets” 500 Strategy: MoneyBall for Startups Re-inventing a 50-year old sport
  7. 500 Startups Mission 1. Find Smart People. 2. Give Them Money. 3. Wait for Good Sh*t to Happen.
  8. 500 Startups: a Platform made of People #500STRONG #500LOVE #HFGSD
  9. 125 People, 20 Countries, 25 Languages
  10. Year People Locations AUM $ Companies 2010 5 MV 10 75 2011 10 BRZ 30 250 2012 15 MX, IND 50 450 2013 30 CHN, SEA 75 650 2014 50 SF, MENA 125 900 2015 100 Korea, UK, Thailand, Vietnam, Germany, EU, Israel, Japan, Turkey 200 1400 2016 150+ +10-20 More ??? 2000+ 500 Startups History: What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been
  11. Building Startup Ecosystems
  12. 500 Startups Mission • Provide capital, community, education to smart people (founders, investors) • Build functional startup ecosystems (founders, team, angels, accelerators, VC funds, capital, exits, liquidity, etc) • #HFGSD: Have Fun, Get Sh*t Done.
  13. [ This Talk ] • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Building Tech Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • The “Lean” Investor + Portfolio Approach • Engineering Investor Ecosystems in Emerging Markets • Q&A
  14. Changes in Tech Startups • LESS Capital required to build product, get to market – Dramatically reduced cost for servers, software, bandwidth – Funding Platforms: KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc – Access to online platforms for 100M-1B+ consumers, smallbiz, etc • MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) – Search (Google, Baidu) – Social (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn) – Mobile (Apple, Android) – E-Commerce (Amazon, PayPal, Alibaba) – Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram) – Comm/Msgs (WeChat, WhatsApp, SnapChat, Email, Voice, SMS, etc) • LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits – Capital + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
  15. Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes
 LEAN Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter Before 2000 ”Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup” • Sun Servers • Oracle DB • Exodus Hosting • 12-24mo dev cycle • 6-18mo sales cycle • <100M people online • $1-2M seed round • $3-5M Series A • Sand Hill Road crawl After 2008 ”Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup” • AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW • Cloud + Open Source SW • Lean Startup / Startup Wknd • 3-90d dev cycle • SaaS / online sales • >3B people online • <$100K incub + <$1M seed • $1-3M Series A • Angel List global visibility
  16. Platforms 2.0
 Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Messaging
  17. Startup Risk Reduction Concept Early Customer Usage Scalable Customer Acquisition [about to be] Profitable Unit Economics Scalable Profitable Business Functional Prototype PRODUCT MARKET REVENUE Exit? When 500 Likes to Invest
  18. [ This Talk ] • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Building Tech Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • The “Lean” Investor + Portfolio Approach • Engineering Investor Ecosystems in Emerging Markets • Q&A
  19. Industry Changes • Financial Market Crises (2000, 2008) • Startup Efficiency, Lean Startup Movement, Reduced Capital Costs • Growing Market, Global Distribution Platforms, “Growth Hacking” • Improved Monetization, Payments Infrastructure • Developing Startup Ecosystems, Global M&A • Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: First Round Capital) • Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator, 500 Startups) • Funding Platforms (ex: Angel List, Kickstarter) • Global Market of Angel Investors, Accelerators, Seed Funds more info: http://PreMoney.co
  20. http://bit.ly/99VCProblems
  21. Portfolio Diversification “Spray, not Pray”
  22. Q: Chances of spotting unicorn?/ a) 1% b) 2% c) 5% d) 10% e) ZERO
  23. Chances of spotting unicorn = ~1%/
  24. If portfolio size = 15 companies/
  25. / If portfolio size = 30 companies
  26. / If portfolio size = 100 companies
  27. 500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets* 1) make lots of little bets on pre-traction, early-stage startups 3) wait 5-10 years for returns: -10-20% small exits @1-5X ($5-25M+) -5-10% larger exits @5-20X ($25-250M+) -1-2% unicorns @20-50X+ ($250M-1B+) *See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets” 2) over the next five years, double-down on top 20-30% ~500 co’s @ $100K 1st checks 100-200 co’s @ $200-500K 2nd/3rd checks (target 25-50 exits @ $100M+) (assume high failure rate ~50-80%)
  28. [ This Talk ] • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Building Tech Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • The “Lean” Investor + Portfolio Approach • Engineering Investor Ecosystems in Emerging Markets • Q&A
  29. Startup Investment Stages • Concept • Product • Functional Prototype • Early Users/Customers • Other Investors • Profitable Unit Economics? • Scalable Cust Acquisition? • Profitable Business • Scalable Organization • Exit / Liquidity? 29
  30. Startup Risk Reduction Concept Early Customer Usage Scalable Customer Acquisition [about to be] Profitable Unit Economics Scalable Profitable Business Functional Prototype PRODUCT MARKET REVENUE Exit? When 500 Likes to Invest
  31. The Lean Investor Make lots of little bets: • Start with many small “experiments” • Filter out failures + small wins • Double-down on stuff that looks like it’s working • Incubation: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
  32. Investment Stage #1: 
 Product Validation + Customer Usage • Structure – 1-3 founders – $0-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors • Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” – Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics – Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users) • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
  33. Investment Stage #2: 
 Market Validation + Revenue Testing • Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds • Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” – Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost – Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  34. Investment Stage #3: 
 Revenue Validation + Growth • Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors • Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-24 months – Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” – Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  35. [ This Talk ] • What is 500 Startups? • Changes in Building Tech Startups • Changes in Venture Capital Investing • The “Lean” Investor + Portfolio Approach • Engineering Investor Ecosystems in Emerging Markets • Q&A
  36. Critical Ecosystem Factors • Optimism & Belief (“Silicon Valley”) • Mentorship + Education (Knowledge) • Universities + Companies (People) • Capital, Legal, Finance (Infrastructure) • Engineering + Design / UX (Product) • Platforms + Distribution (Customers) • Online Payments (Monetization) • IPO / M&A Market (Exits) 36
  37. We live in a World of ABUNDANCE • There are LOTS of talented people in the world • There are LOTS of entrepreneurs everywhere • There is a LOT of capital sitting around, BUT…. • Not much is available for un-tested entrepreneurs :( • 500 Startups plans to change that.
  38. Who, What is an Entrepreneur?
  39. Who/What is an Entrepreneur? • someone who WANTS to start a business • someone who can RUN a business • someone who can run a SUSTAINABLE business • someone who can run a PROFITABLE business that creates VALUE & employs LARGE # people • someone who can run a $10M/yr business that employs 100+people
  40. Building Startup Ecosystems
  41. Challenges for VCs & Angels in Emerging Markets • Smaller Markets than USA, UK/EU, CH/JPN • Limited Internet / Mobile / Smartphone • Tough Online Payments / Physical Logistics • Small # of Early-Stage Capital / Firms • Long Time to Exits /Liquidity (7-10 years) • Small # IPOs (0?) / Small # Local Acquirers 41
  42. Solutions for VCs & Angels in Emerging Markets • Increase #, frequency of early-stage investors • Increase portfolio size, Decrease check size • Increase #, frequency of acquirers • Fund of Funds for Countries / Regions • Liquidity Funds for Repurchase of Series A/B • Use of Real Estate as Hedge / Synthetic Liquidity • Tax Incentives for Global, Local Acquirers • Tax Incentives for Investing in Startups, Innovation 42
  43. Questions? Comments? • More Info? – http://500.co (our company) – http://500hats.com (my blog) – https://angel.co/500startups (our fund) – Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure

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