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USFS 2018 Science Forum Chapters 2 - 6
- 1. Chapter 2: Climate, Disturbance, and Vulnerability to Vegetation Change in the Northwest Forest Plan Area Speaker: Matthew Reilly, Humboldt State University
- 2. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Authors Matthew J. Reilly1, Thomas. A. Spies2, Jeremy Littell3, Ramona Butz4, and John Kim5 1Humboldt State University, 2USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3USGS Alaska Climate Center, 4USFS Region 5 Area Ecology Program, 5USFS Pacific Northwest Research Station
- 3. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Biogeographic Framework • Multiple physiographic provinces • Diverse assemblage of forested vegetation zones Simpson 2014
- 4. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Diverse Biophysical Setting • ~24.4 million acres of forest land • Wide range of environmental and climatic gradients
- 5. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Forested Vegetation Zones Western Hemlock Subalpine Ponderosa Pine Silver Fir White Fir/Grand Fir Mountain Hemlock Wet/Moist Zones Dry Zones
- 6. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Millennial Scale Climate Change Long et al. 1998 Walsh et al. 2015 Cool/ Wet Cool / Wet Warm / Dry
- 7. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon 20th Century Warming Abatozoglou et al. 2014 Temperature Trends
- 8. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon 20th Century Drying Abatozoglou et al. 2014 Precipitation Trends
- 9. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Ongoing Impacts of Climate Change • Earlier spring snowmelt • Decreased coastal clouds and fog • Heat waves, extreme temperatures, intensified hydrologic regimes
- 10. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Tree Growth and Mortality van Mantgem et al. 2009 • Tree mortality rates in old- growth forests have increased since the 1960’s • Decreased growth in dry forests and increased growth in some high elevation
- 11. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Increasing Wildfire Activity
- 12. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon 21st Century Temperature Projections Snover et al. 2013 • Consistent agreement on increased temperature • Greatest increases projected in the summer
- 13. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon 21st Century Precipitation Projections Snover et al. 2013 • More uncertainty in precipitation, but projections suggest increases • Increases in winter and spring • Decreases in summer and fall
- 14. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Increased Water Balance Deficit following Littell et al. 2016 wetter drier Water Balance Deficit • Less water available for plant growth during the growing season
- 15. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Topographic Refugia • Heterogenous effects across topographically complex landscapes • Dense, multilayered forests can mitigate temperature increases Daly et al. 2010
- 16. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Future Fire Activity Mote et al. 2014
- 17. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Biotic Disturbances • Lower productivity and increased susceptibility to native insects and pathogens • Nonnative pathogens are of particular concern • Swiss needle cast, sudden oak death, white pine blister rust
- 18. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Projected Changes in Vegetation • Loss of subalpine forests except in the north • Loss of conifers and increased dominance of hardwoods in central and southern parts of the region • Little agreement on dry coniferous forests • Persistence of maritime coniferous forests
- 19. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Vulnerability to Climate Change • Decreased growth and increased mortality in dry forests • Larger fires/more area burned • Nonnative species • Decreased coastal summer fog • Loss of subalpine forests • Loss of conifer forests in the south Lenihan et al. (2008) Historical 2070- 2099
- 20. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Adaptation to Climate Change from Peterson et al. 2011 modified from Halofsky and Peterson 2016
- 21. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Climate Change Mitigation Creutzburg et al. 2016 • Increasing harvest rotation length in moist forests • Dry forests will be less stable due to fire
- 22. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Conclusions • Models predict a warmer and potentially wetter 21st century • Greatest changes are projected in the drier eastern and southern portion of the region • Consideration of biophysical setting will be essential when developing strategies for mitigation and adaptation
- 23. Chapter 3: Old Growth, Disturbance, Forest Succession, and Management in the Area of the Northwest Forest PlanSpeaker : Thomas Spies, Emeritus Scientist, PNW Research Station
- 24. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Chapter Authors • Thomas Spies, PNW Research Station, Emeritus • Paul Hessburg, PNW Research Station • Carl Skinner, PSW Research Station, Retired • Klaus Puettmann, Oregon State University • Matthew Reilly, Humbolt State University • Raymond Davis, USFS Region 6 • Jane Kertis, USFS Region 6 • Jonathan Long, PNW Research Station • David Shaw, Oregon State University
- 25. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Timber Management Threat to Old Growth
- 26. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Dynamics of Old Growth Since 1994 Dynamics of Old growth in Late Successional Reserves 1994-2013 • Currently 6-12 million ac of OG on federal land (definition dependent) • Gains and losses • Losses to fire were expected • Regionally variable • Small net overall decline (~3%)
- 27. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Diversity of Old Growth Moist Forests Dry Forests No Recent Fire History of Low severity fire
- 28. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Regional Variation in Historical Fire Regimes Fire Frequency: 10 to 1000 years Severity: Low to High
- 29. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Biodiversity is More than the Old-growth Stage of Succession Multiple Successional Pathways: Moist Forests 0-30 y 30-80 y 20 ~ 100 y 80 ~200 y 200~800 y Early Successional Stages Old Growth
- 30. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Ecological Effects of Fire Suppress Dry Forests • More dense old growth • Less fire-resilient old growth • Larger patches of high severity fire • Less early seral/non-forest Moist Forests • Less Early Seral • Reduced Landscape Diversity
- 31. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Restoration in Moist Forests Plantations in a late-successional reserve Variable Density Thinning
- 32. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Managing for Resilience to Fire and Climate Change in Dry Forests • Thinning and prescribed fire • Promoting large fire-resistant trees • Reducing fuel continuity • Patchwork of open and closed forest • Use topography as a guide
- 33. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Summary • Old growth ecology and conservation differs regionally • NWFP stopped logging of old growth—slight declines • Conservation is more than protecting old growth • Importance of other successional stages • Important role for fire in dry and some “moist” forests • Active management to restore structure and function inside and outside reserves • Approaches differ by fire regime and forest type
- 34. Speaker: Damon Lesmeister, PNW Research Station Chapter 4: Northern Spotted Owl Habitat and Populations— Status andThreats
- 35. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Authors • Damon Lesmeister • PNW, Research Wildlife Biologist • Ray Davis • Region 6, Monitoring Lead, older forests and spotted owls • Peter Singleton • PNW, Research Wildlife Biologist • Dave Wiens • USGS, Research Wildlife Biologist
- 36. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Northern Spotted Owls • Decades of Science and Conservation • 1990 ESA Listing – Threatened • 1994 Northwest Forest Plan
- 37. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Northern Spotted Owls • Territorial • Non-migratory • K-selected species • Lifespan of 20+ years • Low fecundity • Old forest obligate
- 38. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Long-term Demography • NWFP Effectiveness Monitoring • Anthony et al. 2006 • 1985-2003 • Forsman et al. 2011 • 1985-2008 • Dugger et al. 2016 • 1985-2013
- 39. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Mark-Resight Data • Apparent survival • Reproduction • Territory occupancy • Population change (λ)
- 40. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Range Wide Population Trends 1993 Anthony et al. 2006 Forsman et al. 2011 Dugger et al. 2016 Stable population (λ = 1) 59-77% 31-64% 32-55%
- 41. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Habitat • Resources and environmental conditions to support occupancy, reproduction, and survival
- 42. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Habitat Mapping Suitable Nesting and Roosting Forest ESA Critical Habitat
- 43. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Habitat: Patterns of Change • 3.4% net decrease • Non-federal • Timber harvest • Federal • Wildfire Losses Gains
- 44. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Effects of Habitat Loss Dugger et al. 2005 Franklin et al. 2000 High Fitness Territory Scale Core Area Scale Survival % Old Forest Reproduction Low Fitness
- 45. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Protection of Suitable Forest • LSR Network • Nest sites in matrix • National Parks, Wilderness Areas
- 46. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Barred Owls Livezey 2009
- 47. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Prey Spotted Owl Barred Owl
- 48. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Barred Owl Effect on Spotted Owls • Occupancy • Survival • Reproduction • Population size • Detection rates Olympic Peninsula Coast Range Tyee Klamath Cle Elum HJ Andrews South Cascades NW California
- 49. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Wildfire Survival Proportion of Territory Burned at Mod or High severity Rockweit et al. 2017
- 50. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Forest Restoration – Driest Forest • Thinning • Fire resiliency
- 51. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Forest Restoration – Moist Forest • Thinning • Vegetation diversity • Structural complexity
- 52. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Climate Change • Wet winters • Hot dry summers Spotted owls • Old-growth more resistant to climate change
- 53. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Information Needs Prey Populations Disease Barred Owls Climate Change Wildfire Forest Management Stress Old forest connectivity
- 54. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Conclusions • Northwest Forest Plan and Spotted Owl Conservation • NECESSARY • Populations would have declined more rapidly without the plan • But alone is NOT SUFFICIENT USFWS 2011 SpottedOwls Years in future With Barred Owls Without Barred Owls
- 55. Chapter 5: Marbled Murrelet Speaker: Martin G. Raphael, Emeritus Scientist, PNW Research Station
- 56. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Authors • Martin G. Raphael, Emeritus Scientist, PNW Research Station • Gary Falxa, US Fish and Wildlife Service, CA (retired) • Alan Burger, University of Victoria, BC Canada
- 57. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Nests in trees, feeds in seas
- 58. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Distribution of nesting habitat
- 59. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Key Findings: Population density and distribution Highly variable across range Highest numbers offshore of nesting habitatMean Density Low High
- 60. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Key Findings: Population trend
- 61. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Habitat loss from 1993 to 2012 by zone
- 62. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Habitat loss, Federal and Nonfederal On Federal Lands: • 2% Loss • Due to fire On Nonfederal Lands: • 27% Loss • Due to harvest
- 63. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Limiting factors: Is it the seas or the trees? Component % Influence Trees 55.3 Seas 33.3
- 64. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Key Uncertainties • Future nesting habitat • Factors affecting rate of nest depredation • Foraging habitat and prey biomass • Drivers of annual population change • Climate change
- 65. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Conclusions Conservation of nesting habitat seems to be key to murrelet conservation So far, NWFP reserve system is protecting nesting habitat NWFP goal to conserve murrelets by maintaining (short-term), and increasing (long term) nesting habitat remains valid
- 66. Chapter 6: Other Species and Biodiversity of Older Forests Speaker: Bruce Marcot, PNW Research Station
- 67. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Authors Bruce Marcot Karen L. Pope Keith Slauson Harwell H. Welsh Clara A. Wheeler Matthew J. Reilly William J. Zielinski
- 68. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Other Species and Biodiversity
- 69. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon NWFP Survey and Manage Program • Annual Species Reviews • Identified species for specific survey & management protocols • ~400 species initially listed • ~68,000 sites surveyed • ~100 species removed from list
- 70. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Agency Species Programs Survey and Manage Program Interagency Special Status and Sensitive Species Program (USFS & BLM)
- 71. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Is the NWFP Working for Other Species & Biodiversity? • Scientific understanding has expanded • occurrence, distribution, ecology, threats • Surveys revealed many more locations • species removed from survey lists
- 72. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon • Many old-forest spp. remain rare & vulnerable • need fine-filter management • viability studies • Biodiversity depends on coarse-filter assumptions • protecting ecosystems will protect species Is the NWFP Working for Other Species & Biodiversity?
- 73. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Widening the Playing Field • Early seral vegetation • Full range of conditions & environments
- 74. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Widening the Playing Field • Consider key biotic functions • Project climate change indicators & thresholds of change
- 75. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Issues -- Fungi, Lichens, Bryophytes, Vascular Plants • Key ecological roles, 234 species rare or little-known
- 76. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Issues -- Invertebrates • Key ecological roles • Fire sensitive • Headwater streams • Invasive species
- 77. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Issues -- Amphibians Values • 50-ft stream buffers • down log retention • headwater streams Threats • fire • timber harvest • climate change • fungal pathogens
- 78. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Issues -- Carnivores • Fisher, Pacific Marten, Lynx, Wolverine • value – large legacy trees, large down wood • threats – habitat fragmentation, predation, rodenticides, wildfire, down wood removal
- 79. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Overall Challenges • Testing efficacy of coarse- and fine-filter approach
- 80. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon • Maintaining old-forest biodiversity • imbalances in seral stages • increases in fire severity • climate change shifts of forest vulnerability Overall Challenges
- 81. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Overall Challenges • Studies to identify popn isolates, new taxa • Humboldt’s flying squirrel, Glaucomys oregonensis • Humboldt marten, Martes caurina humboldtensis • Scott Bar salamander, Plethodon asupak • Forest sharp-tailed snake, Contia longicaudae • Aquatic snails, Fluminicola spp., Colligyrus greggi
- 82. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Biodiversity ... ? • No biodiversity monitoring program • No effectiveness monitoring program
- 83. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Solutions • Restoring natural early seral vegetation and a full range of environmental conditions • Novel species combinations & ecosystems
- 84. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Solutions • Connecting old-forest reserves through matrix lands and across elevations
- 85. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon • Balancing fuels management with reestablishment of natural disturbances • Continuing species and biodiversity studies Solutions
- 86. Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon Current Agency Directions • BLM: Resource Management Plans • USFS: 2012 Planning Rule - Coarse- & fine-filter management - Species of Conservation Concern - Interagency Special Status and Sensitive Species Program
- 87. Break We will take a 15 minute break then resume with presentations During break to prepare for upcoming Questions & Answers -- • Portland attendees • If you wish to ask questions, pick up a number from the registration desk • Questions will be queued up in chronological order • When you ask your question, please say the chapter or topic it pertains to • Webcast attendees • At any time type your question in the comment box, indicating which chapter it pertains to • We wil likely not have time to respond to all questions Northwest Forest Plan Science Synthesis – Science Forum | Tuesday, June 26, 2018 | Portland, Oregon
Editor's Notes
- Climate change is expected to alter the forested ecosystems across the Northwest Forest Plan area. Increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature, as well as altered precipitations and disturbance regimes, will likely have profound effects on biodiversity and the delivery of ecosystem services over the next century.
- Climate change is expected to alter the forested ecosystems across the Northwest Forest Plan area. Increases in atmospheric CO2 and temperature, as well as altered precipitations and disturbance regimes, will likely have profound effects on biodiversity and the delivery of ecosystem services over the next century.
- The ecological interactions and diversity of biophysical settings in the region are complex. Understanding and incorporating how climate change projections and potential effects vary geographically is essential in developing strategies for adaptation and mitigation to climate change
- Climate is cooler and wetter towards the north in the coastal and inland mountains, but transitions to a more Mediterranean climate with warmer, drier summers and greater inter-annual variability to the south. Most precipitation falls during the winter, often a snow at higher elevations
- The broad range of environmental and climatic gradients is reflected in the distribution of several potential vegetation zones across the region. Vegetation zones represent a unique set of biophysical conditions and species assemblages with characteristic disturbance regimes. Wet or moist vegetation zones make most the region and are most abundant on the west-side of the Cascades, with dry vegetation zones becoming more important in the east and to the south.
- The climate and vegetation of the region have gone through continuous change over the past 12,000 years during the Holocene. Complex interactions between a fluctuating climate and fire drove vegetation change at millennial scales, and contemporary species assemblages appeared between 5,000 and 2,500 years ago.
- Temperature increase during the 20th century have exceeded global averages and equate to almost 1 degree C. There is evidence supporting both anthropogenic climate change and change associated with natural variability, but natural factors alone cannot explain warming.
- Trends in precipitation have been more variable and depend on season. Despite an increase in spring precipitation, decreased summer and fall precipitation have resulted in larger climatic water deficits over the past four decades.
- Recent trends also indicate changes in several forest relevant components of climate and weather including earlier spring snowmelt, decreases in coastal fog, and prolonged heat waves accompanied by the occurrence of extremely high temperatures.
- Recent changes in climate have also affected tree demographic rates. These include increased mortality rates of old-growth forests. While water limited forests have experienced decreased growth, there is also evidence of increased growth in energy limited, higher elevation forests.
- Although the wetter part of the region has experienced very little recent fire, wildfire activity has been increasing across drier parts of the region. There has generally been less than expected under historical regimes, but recent fires include in greater proportions and larger patches of high severity fire in dry forests. Recent wildfires …………..
- Although the magnitude of change varies, there is consistent agreement among model projections that the region will experience significant warming in the future. Warming is projected across all four seasons, with the greatest increases during the summer months. Under RCP 8.5, much of the region is projected to depart from their historical climate regime by 2050, when the mean annual temperature of a given location will exceed the 20th-century range of variability.
- Projections for precipitation are more uncertain but generally suggest increased precipitation in the future. However, these projections differ by season with increases in the winter and spring and decreases in the summer and fall.
- Changes in temperature and precipitation will most likely affect vegetation by altering the availability of water in the soil through changes in the amount and timing of precipitation. Cumulatively, these are expected to be experienced ecologically through hotter periods of drought and greater deficits in water balance. Most of the region is projected to be drier during the summer, especially in the eastern and southern parts of the region, though mountainous areas to the north may actually become wetter.
- It’s important to remember that climate projections are made at coarse spatial scale, and that the effects will likely vary at smaller landscape scales, especially in heterogeneous mountain environments. Complex topography and dense old-growth vegetation have the potential to mitigate some effects and provide the potential for climate change refugia
- A number of studies project have made projections about future fire activity across the region. The studies use different methods and results vary some what, but most project increases in fire activity in the next century.
- Native insects and pathogen activity is expected to increase as trees experience more stress associated with growing-season drought; however, the implications and magnitude of their effects are likely to be variable and differ geographically as well as among species. In addition to affecting host species, climate change will also affect population dynamics and geographic distributions of pathogen and insect species.
- Several key vulnerabilities have been identified in the literature and are
- Several key vulnerabilities have been identified in the literature
- Adaptation options include management actions at stand and landscape scales to reduce vulnerabilities. These include manipulation of stand and landscape structure to increase resilience to drought, fire, and insects, while also increasing connectivity to facilitate species migration. Monitoring for to facilitate early detection and rapid response to ongoing changes
- Mitigation includes efforts to increase carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems. Longer harvest rotations has the potential to increase carbon stores in moist forests, but carbon stores in dry forests will likely be less stable given projected increases in wildfire activity.
- Spotted owls were listed as threatened in 1990 and providing adequate amounts of suitable forest cover has been a cornerstone of all recovery plans and a major driver for developing the Forest Plan. It is now one of the most studied birds in the world.
- Spotted owls are territorial, have high site fidelity and are non-migratory. They have a long life span and with low overall annual fecundity. Spotted owls need old forest for survival, reproduction, foraging, and ultimately population growth.
- Spotted owl population dynamics have been studied throughout the subspecies’ range for decades and is part of effectiveness monitoring of the Forest Plan. These award-winning studies have provided crucial information for management and conservation of spotted owls and their habitat.
- The long-term demography studies collected data to quantify survival, fecundity, recruitment, territory occupancy, and rate of population change of spotted owls on the 11 demographic study areas.
- When the Forest Plan was developed populations were estimated to be declining at about 4.5% per year, well below the threshold for a stable population. Declines have continued and populations are between 31 and 77% lower today.
- Suitable habitat is critical for spotted owl persistence. These areas have abundant prey and other resources, and have a suitable climate and forest structure, as well as few or no barred owls. Habitat supports occupancy, reproduction, and survival.
- Forest types that are suitable for nesting and roosting are monitored under the Forest Plan. Endangered species act critical habitat designation also includes areas that important for foraging by spotted owls.
- Spotted owl habitat has declined by about 3.4%. Some gains have occurred in moist forest through succession. Losses have been mostly on non-federal land due to timber harvest. Losses on federal land are primarily due to wildfire.
- At the smaller core area scale survival and reproduction increase with the percentage of old forest. At the territory scale fitness is maximized with a mix of old forest with other forest types. The lowest fitness occurs with extreme high and low amount of old forest.
- The Late-Successional Reserve network, protection of nest sites in the matrix, and other types of reserves have successfully created and maintained forest critical for spotted owl recovery, but challenges remain for spotted owls.
- Barred owls are a medium-sized congener that have expanded their range from the eastern US westward and now occur sympatrically throughout the range of spotted owls. Competition has emerged as an important and complex threat to spotted owl populations.
- In addition to being a more habitat generalist, barred owls have a more diverse diet than spotted owl, which is primarily flying squirrels, tree voles, and woodrats. Barred owls eat a wider array of mammal species and also exploit many other taxa a prey.
- Yellow lines show that barred owl occupancy has increased throughout the Forest Plan area, while spotted owls have steadily declined. Barred owls also negatively impact spotted owl survival, reproduction, detection rates, and ultimately population growth.
- Wildfires can impact spotted owls in various ways. The upper figure shows a decrease in habitat suitability, especially with high severity fire. Spotted owl survival declines with greater amounts of their territories that burn at moderate or high severity.
- In drier forests wildfire was historically frequent and low severity. Forest managers in these areas are challenged with balancing the negative impacts on spotted owls and the benefits of restoring fire-resilient forest structure and species composition.
- In moist forest, thinning is used to accelerate development of old forest conditions in younger stands. These treatments increase understory diversity, but primary prey species may be negatively impacted for several decades.
- With climate change, we expect spotted owl populations to be stressed with wetter winters and drier summers. It is important to note that the cooler and moister conditions of old, complex forest may buffer against the negative impacts of climate change on biodiversity.
- Spotted owls are a highly studied species, but we still need more information on the interactions between climate change, forest management, and barred owls, wildfire, disease, stress, prey population, connectivity of old forest, and many others.
- The Forest Plan has put federal lands on a trajectory for providing most forest types needed by spotted owls. However, for long-term persistence of spotted owls additional habitat conservation and control of barred owls will likely be needed.
- Much research has been conducted in recent years on various aspects of biodiversity and many taxa associated with old forests within the area of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP). In this talk, I’ll be addressing other species and biodiversity of older forests.
- I want to herald my coauthors here, who contributed so much to this synthesis. My thanks to one and all.
- Here, “Other species” refers to all taxonomic groups of organisms. And “Biodiversity” is more than just species; it also refers to hierarchical levels of organization from genes to landscapes ... and also to the ecological functions and roles that organisms play in the ecosystem. These roles are key to ecosystem productivity and sustainability.
- The NWFP Survey and Manage Program conducted Annual Species Reviews that identified species for specific survey and management protocols, with about 400 species initially listed, about 68,000 sites surveyed, and about 100 species removed from the list ... being deemed secure enough under the NWFP guidelines that they did NOT need additional protection protocols.
- Much of the Survey and Manage Program, established for the area of the Northwest Forest Plan, has now been enfolded into the Interagency Special Status and Sensitive Species Program that covers all of Washington and Oregon.
- So, is the NWFP working? Generally yes, and our scientific understanding has greatly expanded on some species' attributes, and surveys have revealed many new locations allowing species to be removed from survey lists.
- BUT many old-forest species remain rare and vulnerable, and may need continued management and study ... ... Also, conservation of other aspects of biodiversity – mostly species conservation -- depends largely on the assumptions of the coarse-filter approach, which presumes that broad protection of ecosystems will protect all species therein.
- So what are some options? We can widen the scope of the NWFP ... to account for early seral vegetation and the value of the full range of conditions and environments in the managed forest matrix.
- Widening the scope can also include consideration of key biotic functions of all organisms, and projecting climate change indicators and thresholds of change, those "tipping points."
- So what are some species issues? For plants and allies, many play key ecological roles ... many are rare and remain little-known ... and many are difficult to detect, inventory, and monitor, especially the hypogeous fungi.
- The wide array of invertebrates in old forests highlights their many key ecological roles – such as in nutrient cycling, decomposition of organic matter, and control of insect pests. Many soil invertebrates are fire sensitive and occur in high diversity in upper watersheds. Threats include invasive species, and many species groups are just poorly studied.
- Recent conservation assessments conducted on seven salamander species highlight the value of riparian buffers, down log retention, and protection of headwater streams. Other work has focused on threats and impacts of fire, harvest, climate change, pests, and fungal pathogens.
- For carnivores, studies have reinforced guidelines for conserving large trees and down wood, and with new locations being discovered ... but threats now include habitat fragmentation, predation, rodenticides, wildfire, and down wood removal.
- Overall challenges that remain include testing the efficacy of the coarse- and fine-filter approach ... that is, to provide ecosystem diversity and resilience, while also protecting rare and little-known species and their habitats, sometimes on a site-specific basis.
- Another challenge is maintaining old-forest biodiversity in the face of imbalanced seral stages, increased fire severity, and climate change impacts on forest conditions and disturbances.
- Also needed are continued population studies to identify isolates and new taxa -- such as the newly-described species listed here -- and their distributions, habitats, and conservation needs.
- And, as with our previous synthesis, there are no overall biodiversity and effectiveness monitoring programs as called for under the NWFP. Many species and habitats have been surveyed and studied, but many other aspects of biodiversity remain unmonitored.
- And finally ... Solutions -- may include restoring early seral vegetation and a full range of environmental conditions, in a sustainable balance under changing climate and disturbance regimes. And accounting for novel species combinations and ecosystems that will arise from changing climates and conditions.
- Solutions – also may include connecting old-forest reserves through matrix lands and across elevations ... particularly for carnivore habitat.
- And also balancing fuels management with reestablishment of natural disturbances, and continuing species and biodiversity studies, especially on ecological functions and processes.
- And finally, BLM and the US Forest Service are currently updating their land management plans, addressing many of these solutions through mandates for coarse- and fine-filter management, for listing Species of Conservation Concern, and through the ongoing Interagency Species Program. Thank you very much.