SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Expansionary leasing activity
driving growth across markets
United States Office Review Q4 2014
The increase in corporate profitability and
economic growth will continue to result in
headcount increases and expansionary leasing
activity across markets. As a result, the rate of
absorption will likely reach 2.0 percent of total
inventory in 2015, a 25 percent increase from
2014 levels.
Fundamentals are tightening across markets, particularly
absorption, fueling new development
2
Source: JLL Research
Leasing activity
• Leasing activity declined by 10.2 percent overall in the fourth quarter as a result of quarterly declines in 50.0
percent of markets that JLL tracks. Leasing activity, yet, was up in the large-block segment (20K and >) and is
expected to pick up again in 2015 as employment gains continue to surpass pre-recession employment totals
and rightsizing is showing signs of plateauing.
Absorption
• Net absorption in the fourth quarter was the highest on record since the recession at 16.8 million square feet
and 54.7 million square feet in 2014. This is nearly four times the amount recorded at year-end 2010 and 37
percent higher than 2013. At year-end, New York, Houston and Chicago alone contributed to more than 30
percent of total net absorption for 2014.
Vacancy
• With absorption at a post-recession high, vacancy is at its lowest point in the cycle at 15.6 percent with New
York, San Francisco, Portland and Salt Lake City all at 10.0 percent vacancy or less. As tenants plan for further
expansion in 2015, vacancy is expected to decline further, especially in Class A segments and CBDs.
Rents
• Rent growth was relatively flat across markets in the fourth quarter, but saw more significant growth in the Class
A and B segments of suburban markets, largely a result of greater expansionary activity as vacancy rates in
CBDs tighten.
Construction
• Construction activity increased by 12.2 percent from the third to fourth quarter with nearly 80 million square feet
under construction at year-end, 77.8 percent of which is speculative. Only 10 markets tracked by JLL are
without construction activity while markets like Houston, Silicon Valley, Austin and San Francisco (energy and
tech) continue to top lead in terms of construction as a percent of total inventory.
Leasing activity
Following several quarters of strong leasing activity, Q4 posted
lower results
4
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Slowdowns in New York, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston
pushed year-end totals 5.2 percent below 2013 activity
5
258,547,529
246,521,385
228,764,145
275,274,581
282,356,988
234,094,033
249,187,644
236,140,690
0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Leasing activity (s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Outside of top markets, leasing activity relatively even across
geographies, similar to previous quarters
6
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
NewYork
Washington,DC
Boston
Dallas
LosAngeles
Chicago
NewJersey
Denver
OrangeCounty
SanFrancisco
SiliconValley
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Seattle
SanDiego
Houston
Oakland-EastBay
Austin
Phoenix
Minneapolis
Detroit
Portland
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Charlotte
St.Louis
FairfieldCounty
Indianapolis
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
Cleveland
WestPalmBeach
Tampa
Sacramento
Miami
Columbus
FortLauderdale
Orlando
SanFranciscoPeninsula
Raleigh-Durham
SaltLakeCity
WestchesterCounty
LongIsland
HamptonRoads
SanAntonio
Jacksonville
Richmond
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
41.8% 20.4% 37.8%
7
29.3 MSF
total square feet leased in Q4 in
transactions 20,000 s.f. or larger
101
average term in months
48% / 11% / 37%
of tenants are growing / shrinking / stable
(respectively)
52% / 48%
urban / suburban breakdown
of Q4 volume
Large-block leasing activity increased by 3.5 percent compared
to Q3
Source: JLL Research
8
54% of total leasing activity over 20,000 s.f.
46% of tenants are growing
16% of tenants are shrinking
23 companies were ‘new to market’
Banking, finance, and insurance generated the
most activity at 3.3MSF leased
Technology followed, leasing 2.8MSF
46% of total leasing activity over 20,000 s.f.
51% of tenants are growing
6% of tenants are shrinking
14 companies were ‘new to market’
Technology generated the most activity at 3.6MSF
leased
Banking, finance, and insurance followed, leasing
1.8MSF
Companies that ignored the debate all together in Q4?
WeWork and Regus
Traditional industries, such as finance, continue to dominate core
leasing activity; tech’s campus preference make it lead suburbs
Source: JLL Research
9
Urban Suburban Total metro
397,525
412,940
447,220
584,063
717,839
754,502
939,491
1,147,817
2,016,105
3,952,458
0 5,000,000
Minneapolis
Atlanta
Houston
Boston
San Francisco
Seattle-Bellevue
Chicago
New Jersey
Washington, DC
New York
450,791
454,524
465,752
498,688
519,785
636,858
809,550
894,578
1,096,835
2,546,429
- 5,000,000
Charlotte
Northern Virginia
San Francisco
Peninsula
Atlanta
Dallas
Oakland-East Bay
Philadelphia
Los Angeles
Orange County
Silicon Valley
878,203
911,628
1,023,561
1,096,835
1,161,837
1,288,716
1,558,642
2,016,105
2,566,775
3,952,458
- 5,000,000
Boston
Atlanta
Los Angeles
Orange County
Philadelphia
Chicago
New Jersey
Washington, DC
Silicon Valley
New York
New York and Silicon Valley lead large-block leasing volume
across markets
Source: JLL Research
10
However, large leasing is taking place throughout the United
States, with a focus on gateway markets
Seattle CBD
Zillow: 155,000 s.f.
Pleasanton North (East Bay)
Workday: 151,000 s.f.
Sunnyvale (Silicon Valley)
Google: 946,000 s.f.
North County (Orange County)
St. Joseph Heritage
Medical Group: 192,000 s.f.
Dallas CBD
Crosstex Energy: 158,000 s.f.
Minneapolis CBD
Seed Partners: 280,000 s.f.
West Loop (Chicago)
Hyatt: 229,000 s.f.
Hudson Waterfront (NJ)
ISO Insurance: 392,000 s.f.
Penn Plaza/Garment (NYC)
Amazon: 470,000 s.f.
Southwest (DC)
U.S. Dep’t of Education: 314,000 s.f.
Source: JLL Research
Month 00, 2014 11
Unknown
Creative
Consumer-oriented
Non-profit
Professional and business services
Finance
Scientific & technical
- 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000
Unknown
Manufacturing & distribution
Retail & hospitality
Marketing, advertising,…
Media & entertainment
Association, non-profit, union
Education
Government
Accounting, consulting, research,…
Other professional and business…
Law firm
Real estate
Banking, finance, insurance
Aerospace, defense, transportation
Energy & utilities
Architecture, engineering,…
Life sciences
Telecom/Mobile
Healthcare
Technology
- 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000
Leasing activity within the scientific and technical industry cluster… …dominated by technology companies, led activity in the fourth quarter
Tech and finance drove fourth-quarter leasing activity, with law,
health and life sciences also boosting volumes
Source: JLL Research
Month 00, 2014 12
199
83 50
83
39 44
17
0
50
100
150
200
250
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Numberoftransactions(s.f.)
Leasingactivity(s.f.)
s.f. leased number of transactions
Leasing continues to be divided between large (100,000+) and
small (< 30,000) transactions, seeing new growth in middle
Source: JLL Research
13
485,234
6,597,165
18,216,762
4,038,366
- 10,000,000 20,000,000
C
B
A
Trophy
41% of tenants signed leases
that represented growth in
Trophy buildings in Q4
Life sciences
Architecture, engineering,…
Real estate
Manufacturing & distribution
Government
Telecom/Mobile
Healthcare
Law firm
Banking, finance, insurance
Technology
- 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000
Tenants continue to seek high quality space, even as rents rise in top
metros across the country
Within the Trophy segment, technology tenants leased the largest share
of space in Q4
Tenants continue to take up space in Class A buildings, although
dwindling space options are picking up Class B’s share
Source: JLL Research
14
48%
of companies grew in Q4
11%
of companies shrunk in
Q4
37%
of companies were stable
in Q4
Technology
• 17.8% of companies
Banking, finance, insurance
• 7.1% of companies
Healthcare
• 3.6% of companies
Banking, finance, insurance
• 7.0% of companies
Technology
• 3.4% of companies
Government
• 3.3% of companies
Law firm
• 3.8% of companies
Banking, finance, insurance
• 1.9% of companies
Manufacturing & distribution
• 0.9% of companies
Nearly half of all companies grew during the quarter, while law
and finance remain flat
Source: JLL Research
Absorption
After a recovery high in Q3, Q4 demonstrated even more gains in
occupancy, with 16.8 million square feet of net absorption
16
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterlynetabsorption(as%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing annual average
As a percent of total inventory, YTD net absorption posts highest
level since 2007
17
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
YTDnetabsorption(as%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
15-year trailing
annual average
Absorption in CBD and Suburban Class A continued to mount in
2014, but Suburban markets maintain the lead
18
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
Quarterly Class B absorption over the past four quarters is taking
place 4x faster than from 2010 to Q3 2013…
19
Source: JLL Research
14,049,878
15,493,469
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
2010-Q3 2013 Past four quarters
ClassBnetabsorption(s.f.)
936,658 s.f. per quarter 3,873,367 s.f. per quarter
With demand for creative office space strengthening Class B in
many submarkets across the United States
20
9.6%
7.8%
5.9%
4.6%
3.7%
3.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Boston
(East Cambridge)
San Francisco
(SOMA)
Philadelphia
(The Navy Yard)
Chicago
(River West)
Portland
(Lloyd District)
New York
(Penn Plaza/Garment)
YTDCBDClassBnetabsorption(%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
U.S. average
Only four markets experienced a net loss of occupancy in 2014,
all of which were greater than -100,000 square feet
21
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
NewYork
Houston
Chicago
Boston
Atlanta
Phoenix
SiliconValley
Dallas
LosAngeles
Seattle
SanFrancisco
OrangeCounty
Denver
Philadelphia
Raleigh/Durham
Charlotte
SanDiego
Baltimore
Minneapolis
Portland
Detroit
Miami
SaltLakeCity
SanFranciscoPeninsula
Austin
WestPalmBeach
TampaBay
Cincinnati
FortLauderdale
KansasCity
St.Louis
Columbus
Sacramento
Milwaukee
Oakland-EastBay
FairfieldCounty
Indianapolis
Richmond
Jacksonville
Cleveland
SanAntonio
Pittsburgh
Orlando
HamptonRoads
NewJersey
WestchesterCounty
LongIsland
Washington,DC
YTDnetabsorption(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
YTD net occupancy losses amount to
1.0 million square feet
in Washington, DC
Diversification of absorption prominent heading into 2015: New
York, Florida, Atlanta and Philadelphia boost East Coast in Q4
22
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Shareofquarterlynetabsorption
East Coast Central West Coast
Source: JLL Research
More than one-fifth of absorption took place outside a specialized
industry or geographic segment in 2014 as recovery broadens
23
Source: JLL Research
NYC and DC (*excludes Midtown South)
Tech markets (*includes Midtown South)
Energy markets
Sunbelt
All other markets
70.0%
29.7%
6.4%
2010
5.1%
33.5%
19.0%
18.4%
23.9%
2011
0.0%
37.5%
26.0%
29.1%
7.4%
2012
11.1%
21.6%
22.3%
18.6%
26.4%
2013
13.7%
23.1%
15.3%
20.1%
27.8%
2014
Tech and Sunbelt markets all posting above-average absorption;
energy markets expected to slow in 2015
24
1.4%
1.6%
2.6%
1.5%
2.5%
2.4%
2.5%
3.6%
1.9%
2.4%
3.0%
2.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
YTDnetabsorption(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Energy Tech Sunbelt
U.S. average
Atlanta and South Florida maintain absorption levels as New
York, Boston, Philly and Carolinas boost East Coast gains
25
Source: JLL Research
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Netabsorption(s.f.)
Atlanta South Florida Rest of the East Coast
4.6x as much Trophy and Class A space has been absorbed than
Class B and C during the same time period from 2010-2014
26
Source: JLL Research
Trophy and Class A
net absorption
140.2
m.s.f.2010-2014
Class B and C net
absorption
30.5
m.s.f.2011-2014
-4,000,000
-3,000,000
-2,000,000
-1,000,000
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Netabsorption(s.f.)
Atlanta Chicago Los Angeles Miami Philadelphia Phoenix
Diversified markets hit another recovery high with 3.8 million
square feet of occupancy gains this quarter, led by Chicago
27
Source: JLL Research
Atlanta and Phoenix have
absorbed a combined 14.7
million square feet since
2010, or 54.5 percent of
cumulative total.
Lack of available Class A space keeping absorption volume
steady quarter-over-quarter
28
133.5%
93.9%
74.5% 76.3%
295.2%
98.5%
82.0% 78.3%
45.2%
73.4%
63.5%
80.9%
57.3%
82.3%
66.9% 69.8%
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
150.0%
200.0%
250.0%
300.0%
350.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption
Source: JLL Research
CBD absorption remains somewhat volatile; declining by 49.0
percent since Q3
29
166.2%
90.4% 88.8%
80.8%
100.0%
106.1%
74.8%
0.0%
88.1% 86.5%
49.6%
92.0%
48.8%
100.9%
66.4%
32.6%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption
Source: JLL Research
Absorption in Class A space maintains largest share, with CBDs
and suburbs nearly evenly split
30
116.9%
97.9%
62.3%
75.1%
167.8%
102.5%
84.3% 85.3%
43.2%
73.4% 72.8% 70.3%
61.1%
67.6% 67.4% 66.8%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%
160.0%
180.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption
Source: JLL Research
But demand for creative office space is strengthening Class B in
many submarkets across the United States
31
7.3%
5.9%
5.6%
4.7%
3.3%
2.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
San Francisco
(SOMA)
Philadelphia
(The Navy Yard)
Boston
(East Cambridge)
Chicago
(River West)
Portland
(Lloyd District)
New York
(Penn Plaza/Garment)
YTDCBDClassBnetabsorption(%ofinventory)
Source: JLL Research
U.S. average
Still, Class A continues to trump Class B according to most
indicators
32
Source: JLL Research
of absorbed space in 2014
has been Class A
per square foot difference
between Class A and B space…
premium charged for Class A space
versus Class B
difference between Class A and
Class B total vacancy
Vacancy
The steep decline in vacancy this year, currently at 15.6 percent,
is the result of nearly 55 million square feet of absorption
34
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Totalvacancy(%)
Source: JLL Research
Vacancy now at lowest level since 2008 and expected to decline
even more until new space comes to the market
35
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Totalvacancy(%)
Source: JLL Research
Total vacancy declining overall, but Class B in CBDs posting
sharpest decline amidst falling Class A vacancy
36
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
22.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Totalvacancy(%)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
As office-using employment increased by 877,000 net new jobs
in 2014, vacancy declines to 15.6 percent
37
14.0%
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
17.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
26,000
26,500
27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
30,500
2011 2012 2013 2014
Totalvacancy(%)
Office-usingemployment(thousands)
Office-using employment (thousands) Total vacancy (%)
Source: JLL Research
CBD vacancy just 70 basis points from historic low, but
Suburban vacancy still relatively high
38
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
Totalvacancy(%)
Source: JLL Research
Sublease vacancy inched upward in Q4 as a result of Covington
moving into new development in DC, leaving old space behind
for a few years
39
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Subleasespace(s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Rents
Q4 2014 U.S. overall office clock
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Houston, San Francisco, Silicon Valley
Boston, Denver, Los Angeles,
Miami, Tampa, United States
Cincinnati, Detroit, Hampton Roads, Long Island,
San Antonio, St. Louis, Westchester County
Phoenix, Salt Lake City
Atlanta, Fort Lauderdale, Indianapolis,
Kansas City, Orange County, Orlando, Richmond
Sacramento, West Palm Beach
Baltimore, Columbus,
Washington, DC
Dallas
Austin, Pittsburgh, Portland
San Francisco Peninsula
Jacksonville New Jersey
Chicago, Cleveland, Fairfield County,
Oakland-East Bay, Raleigh-Durham, San Diego
New York
Charlotte, Milwaukee, Philadelphia
Seattle-Bellevue
Minneapolis
Source: JLL Research
Q4 2014 U.S. CBD office clock
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Austin, Houston, Portland, San Jose CBD
Miami, Seattle CBD
Dallas, Indianapolis, Salt Lake City, Stamford CBD
Atlanta, Fort Lauderdale, Greenwich CBD,
Los Angeles, Midtown (New York), Orlando,
United States
Cincinnati, Washington, DC, West Palm Beach
Boston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Tampa
Richmond, San Antonio, San Diego
Baltimore, Columbus,
Kansas City, White Plains CBD
Jacksonville, Oakland CBD
Midtown South (New York), San Francisco
Chicago, Downtown (New York), Philadelphia
Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Raleigh-Durham
St. Louis
Milwaukee, Phoenix
Sacramento
Minneapolis
Source: JLL Research
Peaking
phase
Falling
phase
Rising
phase
Bottoming
phase
Q4 2014 U.S. suburban office clock
Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, East Bay Suburbs, Hampton Roads
(Peninsula), Miami, Milwaukee, Raleigh-Durham, San Diego,
Westchester County
Boston, Long Island (Nassau), Portland,
Salt Lake City
Long Island (Suffolk)
Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, Oakland Suburbs, Orlando, Philadelphia
Columbus, Lehigh Valley,
Northern Delaware,
West Palm Beach
Central New Jersey, Northern
New Jersey, Northern Virginia,
Suburban Maryland
Dallas
Denver, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Tampa
Chicago, Cincinnati, Fairfield County,
Hampton Roads (Southside), Sacramento, San Antonio
Bellevue CBD, Richmond
Austin, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Phoenix
Cambridge, Houston,
San Francisco (non-CBD)
San Francisco Peninsula
Silicon Valley
Southern New Jersey
Los Angeles, Pittsburgh
Seattle-Bellevue, United States
DetroitSource: JLL Research
Rent growth remains subdued, but is expected to jump as lack of
availability, combined with higher growth, is forecasted for 2015
44
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterlyrentgrowth(%)
Source: JLL Research
CBD segments posting negative or nearly flat results, while
suburban segments record 2.0 percent or more, year-over-year
45
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
$50.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Averageaskingrents($p.s.f.)
Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban)
Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban)
Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban)
Source: JLL Research
But quarterly rent growth was slightly higher in CBDs than
suburbs, though still below historic norms
46
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Quarterlyrentgrowth(%)
CBD rent growth Suburban rent growth
Source: JLL Research
CBD average: 0.9%
Suburban average: 0.2%
The rent gap is growing between CBD and Suburbs, increasing
by $0.07 in Q4
47
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Averageaskingrent($p.s.f)
CBD Suburbs
Source: JLL Research
$11.36
$15.05
However, the rent gap between Class A and overall rents inching
downward as demand for all other classes increases
48
$3.40
$3.49 $3.49
$3.53
$3.68
$3.81
$3.97 $3.99
$4.21
$4.26
$4.37 $4.38
$4.86
$4.71
$4.82
$4.76
$4.97
$4.92 $4.90
$4.81
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$5.50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ClassApremium($p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
TI allowances are beginning to elevate due to new construction
providing higher concessions
49
3.5
4.1
5.1
6.1 6.2
5.7
5.1
5.3
5.8
$23.00
$24.00
$25.00
$26.00
$27.00
$28.00
$29.00
$30.00
$31.00
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TIallowance($p.s.f.)
Freemonthsofrent
Free months of rent TI allowance ($ p.s.f.)
Source: JLL Research
Construction
Completions are at their highest rate since 2009, but still far
below pre-recession peaks
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Annualcompletions(s.f.)
51
Source: JLL Research
-60.5%
Geographic diversity of construction starts in Q4 helped to push
volumes to roughly 80.0 million square feet
52
Source: JLL Research – numbers represent Q4 starts in square feet
2,496,472
Seattle
221,827
Portland
1,233,071
Bay Area
252,164
San Diego
499,200
Phoenix
416,531
Denver
590,000
Houston
314,964
Dallas
1,036,769
DC
3,029,952
New York
934,850
Charlotte
753,000
Chicago
With starts 76.3 percent higher than 2013 levels
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Annualstarts(s.f.)
53
Source: JLL Research
Starts of major developments continue to rise: seven of more than
500,000 s.f. broke ground in Q4 totaling more than 6.8 m.s.f.
54
Source: JLL Research
3 World Trade Center (New York)
2,861,402 s.f.
Silverstein
18.0% pre-leased (Group M)
Central Place (Northern Virginia)
552,781 s.f.
JBG
64.6% pre-leased (CEB)
Zurich North America HQ (Chicago)
753,000 s.f.
Stonemont
100.0% pre-leased (Zurich)
400 Bellevue Square (Bellevue)
724,693 s.f.
Kemper
0.0% pre-leased
Partners Healthcare (Boston)
700,000 s.f.
Federal Realty
100.0% pre-leased (Partners Healthcare)
300 South Tryon Street (Charlotte)
630,000 s.f.
Spectrum/Mass Mutual
31.7% pre-leased (Babson Capital)
Moffett Gateway (Silicon Valley)
600,864 s.f.
Jay Paul
0.0% pre-leased
6,822,740 s.f.
3,882,576 s.f. available
2,568,295 s.f. pre-leased
37.6% pre-leased
Over the course of 2014, tightening fundamentals have led to a
surge of UC totals, up 68.9 percent year-on-year
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Underconstruction(s.f.)
55
Source: JLL Research
Market Under construction (s.f.) Share
Houston 16,225,602 20.3%
Bay Area 8,246,777 10.3%
Dallas 5,245,160 6.6%
New York 5,203,624 6.5%
Seattle-Bellevue 5,144,406 6.4%
Washington, DC 4,779,129 6.0%
Silicon Valley 4,284,425 5.4%
Boston 4,017,760 5.0%
Chicago 3,692,067 4.6%
San Francisco 3,618,785 4.5%
Philadelphia 3,585,450 4.5%
Austin 3,444,990 4.3%
Phoenix 2,345,759 2.9%
Los Angeles 2,099,739 2.6%
Denver 1,813,315 2.3%
Raleigh-Durham 1,694,995 2.1%
Cincinnati 1,679,533 2.1%
All other markets 10,951,731 13.7%
United States 79,826,470 100.0%
As the recovery broadens, construction is moving away from just
tech and energy and into a variety of markets
Houston Dallas New York Seattle Washington, DC
Silicon Valley Boston Chicago San Francisco Philadelphia
Austin Phoenix Los Angeles Denver Raleigh-Durham
Cincinnati All other markets
56
Source: JLL Research
Typical floor plate Share of s.f.
< 20,000 s.f. 8.2%
20,000-29,999 s.f. 27.9%
30,000-39,999 s.f. 18.9%
40,000-49,999 s.f. 10.1%
50,000+ s.f. 34.9%
< 50,000 s.f. 50,000-99,999 s.f. 100,000-249,999 s.f.
250,000-499,999 s.f. 500,000+ s.f.
Building size Share of s.f.
< 50,000 s.f. 1.6%
50,000-99,999 s.f. 4.6%
100,000-249,999 s.f. 25.3%
250,000-499,999 s.f. 35.4%
500,000+ s.f. 33.2%
The average development is now 250,070 s.f., with a typical floor
plate of 33,657 s.f.
57
< 20,000 s.f. 20,000-29,999 s.f. 30,000-39,999 s.f.
40,000-49,999 s.f. 50,000+ s.f.
Source: JLL Research
Urban Suburban
Most construction is taking place in Suburban and non-CBD
locations, largely due to booms in energy and tech markets
58
CBD Non-CBD
Source: JLL Research
Market Under construction (s.f.) Share
Hines 4,126,714 5.9%
Trammell Crow 3,083,604 4.4%
Silverstein 2,861,402 4.1%
Boston Properties 2,568,963 3.7%
KDC 2,421,167 3.5%
Jay Paul 1,962,886 2.8%
Related 1,700,000 2.4%
Liberty 1,570,077 2.2%
O'Donnell 1,200,000 1.7%
Skanska 1,142,045 1.6%
Tishman Speyer 1,131,840 1.6%
Kilroy 1,045,895 1.5%
All others 45,011,877 64.5%
United States 79,826,470 100.0%
Hines, Trammell Crow, Silverstein, Boston Properties and KDC
are all developing more than 2.0 million square feet
Hines Trammell Crow Silverstein Boston Properties
KDC Jay Paul Related Liberty
O'Donnell Skanska Tishman Speyer Kilroy
All other developers
59
Source: JLL Research
Most construction underway will be completed in late 2015 and
throughout 2016, when the national office market will peak
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Projectedcompletions(s.f.)
Spec BTS
60
Source: JLL Research
A similar pattern emerges when only looking at available space;
the vast majority will come online in 2015 and 2016
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2015 2016 2017 2018
Projectedcompletions(s.f.)
Spec BTS
61
Source: JLL Research
Investment sales
Office investment sales up 21.3 percent year-over-year, seeing its
highest volume since 2007
63
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Officeinvestmentsalevolumes(billionsof$US)
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: JLL Research
Market Sales volume ($) Share
New York $2,426,600,000 13.7%
Boston $2,065,599,379 11.6%
Washington, DC $1,623,250,000 9.1%
Chicago $1,152,925,000 6.5%
Northern Virginia $973,304,190 5.5%
San Francisco
Peninsula
$925,233,131 5.2%
Los Angeles $863,145,000 4.9%
Houston $724,800,000 4.1%
Seattle-Bellevue $566,070,260 3.2%
Minneapolis $484,504,900 2.7%
Denver $469,779,843 2.6%
Atlanta $393,431,088 2.2%
Portland $362,150,000 2.0%
Oakland-East Bay $361,510,000 2.0%
Phoenix $354,078,825 2.0%
All other markets $4,021,912,058 22.6%
United States $17,768,293,674 100.0%
Primary markets driving quarterly volumes, followed by select
secondary markets
New York Boston Washington, DC Chicago
Northern Virginia San Francisco Peninsula Los Angeles Houston
Seattle-Bellevue Minneapolis Denver Atlanta
Portland Oakland-East Bay Phoenix All other markets
64
Source: JLL Research
A trend consistent across CBD, Suburban markets
Primary markets continued to see highest velocity of CBD and Non-CBD transaction activity this
quarter by dollar volume
65
$2,427
$1,571
$1,248
$773
$622
$925 $899 $817
$481 $380
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
New York Washington,
DC
Boston Chicago Houston San
Francisco
Peninsula
Northern
Virginia
Boston Minneapolis Chicago
Q4officeinvestmentsalevolume(millionsof$US)
Most active CBD markets Most active Non-CBD markets
Of CBD volumes in Primary markets
Of Non-CBD volumes in Primary markets
Source: JLL Research
6.9%
64.5%
28.7%
Trophy Class A Class B
Trophy and Class B segments similarly saw transaction volumes
rise in 2014…
66
8.1%
58.2%
33.7%
Trophy Class A Class B
Source: JLL Research
56.7%
43.3%
Primary markets Secondary markets
…but secondary market activity rising on a square footage basis,
accounting for 52.9 percent of 2014 activity
67
47.1%
52.9%
Primary markets Secondary markets
Source: JLL Research
Secondary CBD investment rising with noteworthy activity in
Tampa, Atlanta and Philadelphia this quarter
68
54% 55%
62%
79%
51%
71%
49%
45%
46% 45%
38%
21%
49%
29%
51%
55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4
CBDtransactionvolumesas%oftotal
Primary Secondary
Most active
secondary
CBDs:
Tampa, Atlanta,
Philadelphia
Source: JLL Research
Florida, Texas and California seeing noteworthy turnover in
annual investment sale volumes, surpassing the U.S. average
69
32%
21%
20% 20%
19%
17%
16%
15% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
CBDassetturnoverratio,2014(%)
United States: 11.0%
Source: JLL Research
While majority of markets have seen suburban investment overtake
CBDs, 67.0 percent of sales volume took place in urban markets
70
2%
16%
19%
19%
27%
28%
30%
52%
53%
55%
56%
59%
59%
60%
72%
73%
74%
75%
81%
92%
95%
97%
100%
100%
100%
100%
98%
84%
81%
81%
73%
72%
70%
48%
47%
45%
44%
41%
41%
40%
28%
27%
26%
25%
19%
8%
5%
3%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Suburban Urban
Source: JLL Research
With leading suburban submarkets driving 52.5 percent of U.S.
suburban transaction activity in H2 2014
71
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
Submarkettransactionvolumes
(asa%ofsuburbanmarket,H22014)
Source: JLL Research
... And secondary suburban markets accounting for 63.0 percent
of Q4 activity
72
53% 49% 51%
44%
48% 49%
30%
37%
47% 51% 49%
56%
52% 51%
70%
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4
Suburbantransactionvolumesas%oftotal
Primary Secondary
Most active
secondary
suburbs:
Denver, Minneapolis,
St. Louis, Portland,
Dallas
Source: JLL Research
Outlook
74
Source: JLL Research
2015 outlook strongest in nearly a decade
U.S. GDP and consumer spending levels are forecasted to grow by 3.2 and 2.5 percent, respectively
in 2015, which will lead to further corporate expansion and real estate demand.
The increase in corporate profitability and economic growth will continue to result in headcount
increases and expansionary leasing activity across markets. As a result, the rate of absorption will
likely reach 2.0 percent of total inventory in 2015, a 25 percent increase from 2014 levels.
Vacancy rates in many CBDs and select non-CBD markets on the edge of CBDs will see vacancy
rates decline to single-digits, but fundamentals will also become increasingly tighter in suburban
markets as lack of vacancy, coupled with increasing rents, pushes tenants outside of the core CBD.
JLL forecasts over the next 27 months call for rent increases nationally of 13.0 to 14.0 percent,
driven largely by a new wave of developments delivering, priced at 20.0 to 25.0 percent premiums,
which will trickle down to reset market pricing.
Exactly half of all markets are now posting under construction levels equating to 1.0 percent of
inventory levels. With many developers increasingly thinking about commencing construction on
proposed sites, the market over the next 36 months will likely shift from an under-supplied market to
an over-supplied one by late 2016. Geographies with substantial amount of construction underway
already (Texas, Bay Area), could see momentum turn a year earlier for tenants.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The slowdown in the energy industry, as a
result of the decline in oil prices in recent
weeks, will yield a slower demand environment
in energy hotbeds such as Houston over the
short to mid-term. Likewise, absorption in
high-priced tech markets like San Francisco
and Silicon Valley could also slow as rental
rates reach peak levels amidst declining
vacancy.
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015
John Sikaitis
Managing Director – Office and Local Markets Research
+1 202 719 5839
John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com
Julia Georgules
Associate Director – Office Research
+1 415 354 6908
Julia.Georgules@am.jll.com
Sean Coghlan
Manager – Capital Markets Research
+1 215 988 5556
Sean.Coghlan@am.jll.com
Phil Ryan
Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research
+1 202 719 6295
Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com
>> Click to learn more, and see
market-by-market data

More Related Content

What's hot

Top tech cities: Exploring demand, leasing growth, VC funding and more
Top tech cities: Exploring demand, leasing growth, VC funding and more Top tech cities: Exploring demand, leasing growth, VC funding and more
Top tech cities: Exploring demand, leasing growth, VC funding and more
JLL
 
January 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
January 2016 U.S. employment update and outlookJanuary 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
January 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
March 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
March 2016 U.S. employment update and outlookMarch 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
March 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
Five up and coming real estate markets for 2016
Five up and coming real estate markets for 2016Five up and coming real estate markets for 2016
Five up and coming real estate markets for 2016
JLL
 
U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013
U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013
U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013
JLL
 
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q4 2015)
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q4 2015)U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q4 2015)
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q4 2015)
JLL
 
U.S. Office Market Statistics: Q1 2014
U.S. Office Market Statistics: Q1 2014U.S. Office Market Statistics: Q1 2014
U.S. Office Market Statistics: Q1 2014
JLL
 
Detroit's Year in Charts: 2015
Detroit's Year in Charts: 2015Detroit's Year in Charts: 2015
Detroit's Year in Charts: 2015
Aaron Moore
 
St. Louis Office Insight Q1 2015
St. Louis Office Insight Q1 2015St. Louis Office Insight Q1 2015
St. Louis Office Insight Q1 2015
Blaise Tomazic
 
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook: Q3 2016
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook: Q3 2016JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook: Q3 2016
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook: Q3 2016
Peter McStravick
 
Q2 2014 Austin Office Market Research Report
Q2 2014 Austin Office Market Research ReportQ2 2014 Austin Office Market Research Report
Q2 2014 Austin Office Market Research Report
Colliers International | Houston
 
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q2 2016
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q2 2016JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q2 2016
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q2 2016
Aaron Moore
 
2017 Law Firm office market overview
2017 Law Firm office market overview2017 Law Firm office market overview
2017 Law Firm office market overview
JLL
 
1Q17 ISG Index Infographic
1Q17 ISG Index Infographic1Q17 ISG Index Infographic
1Q17 ISG Index Infographic
Information Services Group (ISG)
 
Q1 2018 | Houston Office | Research & Forecast Report
Q1 2018 | Houston Office | Research & Forecast ReportQ1 2018 | Houston Office | Research & Forecast Report
Q1 2018 | Houston Office | Research & Forecast Report
Colliers International | Houston
 
Q410 qer singlepages
Q410 qer singlepagesQ410 qer singlepages
Q410 qer singlepagesTeam NEO
 
JLL Louisville Industrial Outlook - Q1 2018
JLL Louisville Industrial Outlook - Q1 2018 JLL Louisville Industrial Outlook - Q1 2018
JLL Louisville Industrial Outlook - Q1 2018
Alex Westcott
 
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook - Q4 2020
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook - Q4 2020JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook - Q4 2020
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook - Q4 2020
Emma Gresky
 
Auto Summit 2015
Auto Summit 2015Auto Summit 2015
Auto Summit 2015
Nicole Scott
 

What's hot (20)

Top tech cities: Exploring demand, leasing growth, VC funding and more
Top tech cities: Exploring demand, leasing growth, VC funding and more Top tech cities: Exploring demand, leasing growth, VC funding and more
Top tech cities: Exploring demand, leasing growth, VC funding and more
 
January 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
January 2016 U.S. employment update and outlookJanuary 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
January 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
March 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
March 2016 U.S. employment update and outlookMarch 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
March 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
February 2016 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
Five up and coming real estate markets for 2016
Five up and coming real estate markets for 2016Five up and coming real estate markets for 2016
Five up and coming real estate markets for 2016
 
U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013
U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013
U.S. office market trends: Q4 2013
 
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q4 2015)
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q4 2015)U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q4 2015)
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q4 2015)
 
U.S. Office Market Statistics: Q1 2014
U.S. Office Market Statistics: Q1 2014U.S. Office Market Statistics: Q1 2014
U.S. Office Market Statistics: Q1 2014
 
Detroit's Year in Charts: 2015
Detroit's Year in Charts: 2015Detroit's Year in Charts: 2015
Detroit's Year in Charts: 2015
 
St. Louis Office Insight Q1 2015
St. Louis Office Insight Q1 2015St. Louis Office Insight Q1 2015
St. Louis Office Insight Q1 2015
 
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook: Q3 2016
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook: Q3 2016JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook: Q3 2016
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook: Q3 2016
 
Q2 2014 Austin Office Market Research Report
Q2 2014 Austin Office Market Research ReportQ2 2014 Austin Office Market Research Report
Q2 2014 Austin Office Market Research Report
 
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q2 2016
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q2 2016JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q2 2016
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q2 2016
 
2017 Law Firm office market overview
2017 Law Firm office market overview2017 Law Firm office market overview
2017 Law Firm office market overview
 
1Q17 ISG Index Infographic
1Q17 ISG Index Infographic1Q17 ISG Index Infographic
1Q17 ISG Index Infographic
 
Q1 2018 | Houston Office | Research & Forecast Report
Q1 2018 | Houston Office | Research & Forecast ReportQ1 2018 | Houston Office | Research & Forecast Report
Q1 2018 | Houston Office | Research & Forecast Report
 
Q410 qer singlepages
Q410 qer singlepagesQ410 qer singlepages
Q410 qer singlepages
 
JLL Louisville Industrial Outlook - Q1 2018
JLL Louisville Industrial Outlook - Q1 2018 JLL Louisville Industrial Outlook - Q1 2018
JLL Louisville Industrial Outlook - Q1 2018
 
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook - Q4 2020
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook - Q4 2020JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook - Q4 2020
JLL Columbus Industrial Outlook - Q4 2020
 
Auto Summit 2015
Auto Summit 2015Auto Summit 2015
Auto Summit 2015
 

Similar to U.S. office market statistics (Q4 2014) and 2015 outlook

U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014
U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014
U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014
JLL
 
Chicago Tech Book 2016 FINAL
Chicago Tech Book 2016 FINALChicago Tech Book 2016 FINAL
Chicago Tech Book 2016 FINALMatthew Walaszek
 
St. Louis Office Insight
St. Louis Office InsightSt. Louis Office Insight
St. Louis Office Insight
Blaise Tomazic
 
Q3 2015 Industrial Brief
Q3 2015 Industrial BriefQ3 2015 Industrial Brief
Q3 2015 Industrial Brief
Ryan Searle
 
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q3 2016
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q3 2016JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q3 2016
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q3 2016
Harrison West
 
Atlanta Q4 Market Update - Office
Atlanta Q4 Market Update - Office Atlanta Q4 Market Update - Office
Atlanta Q4 Market Update - Office
James Koontz
 
Office insight-q1-2015-chicago-suburban
Office insight-q1-2015-chicago-suburbanOffice insight-q1-2015-chicago-suburban
Office insight-q1-2015-chicago-suburban
JLL_Midwest_Great_Lakes_Research
 
Atlanta Office Sector Report (Q2 2016)
Atlanta Office Sector Report (Q2 2016)Atlanta Office Sector Report (Q2 2016)
Atlanta Office Sector Report (Q2 2016)
Savills Studley
 
US Construction Trends
US Construction TrendsUS Construction Trends
US Construction Trends
BEA Inc
 
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q2 2015)
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q2 2015)U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q2 2015)
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q2 2015)
JLL
 
Kilroy jll high tech industry outlook fall 2011
Kilroy jll high tech industry outlook fall 2011Kilroy jll high tech industry outlook fall 2011
Kilroy jll high tech industry outlook fall 2011
Risa Tenwong
 
St. Louis Office Insight
St. Louis Office InsightSt. Louis Office Insight
St. Louis Office Insight
Blaise Tomazic
 
Jll commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
Jll   commercial real estate market report toronto 2014Jll   commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
Jll commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
Chris Fyvie
 
Q2 2016 industrial brief 7 29-16 final
Q2 2016 industrial brief 7 29-16 finalQ2 2016 industrial brief 7 29-16 final
Q2 2016 industrial brief 7 29-16 final
Justin B. Smith
 
C&W MARKETBEAT- U.S. Office Q4 2018
C&W MARKETBEAT- U.S. Office Q4 2018C&W MARKETBEAT- U.S. Office Q4 2018
C&W MARKETBEAT- U.S. Office Q4 2018
Guy Masse
 
Top Office Metros 2015 4Q
Top Office Metros 2015 4Q Top Office Metros 2015 4Q
Top Office Metros 2015 4Q
Coy Davidson
 
JLL September 2015 Baltimore Employment Update
JLL September 2015 Baltimore Employment UpdateJLL September 2015 Baltimore Employment Update
JLL September 2015 Baltimore Employment Update
Patrick Latimer
 
Toronto office market report q3 2014
Toronto office market report q3 2014Toronto office market report q3 2014
Toronto office market report q3 2014
Chris Fyvie
 

Similar to U.S. office market statistics (Q4 2014) and 2015 outlook (20)

U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014
U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014
U.S. office market statistics: Q2 2014
 
Chicago Tech Book 2016 FINAL
Chicago Tech Book 2016 FINALChicago Tech Book 2016 FINAL
Chicago Tech Book 2016 FINAL
 
St.
St. St.
St.
 
St. Louis Office Insight
St. Louis Office InsightSt. Louis Office Insight
St. Louis Office Insight
 
Q3 2015 Industrial Brief
Q3 2015 Industrial BriefQ3 2015 Industrial Brief
Q3 2015 Industrial Brief
 
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q3 2016
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q3 2016JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q3 2016
JLL Detroit Industrial Insight & Statistics - Q3 2016
 
Atlanta Q4 Market Update - Office
Atlanta Q4 Market Update - Office Atlanta Q4 Market Update - Office
Atlanta Q4 Market Update - Office
 
Office insight q1 2015-chicago suburban
Office insight q1 2015-chicago suburbanOffice insight q1 2015-chicago suburban
Office insight q1 2015-chicago suburban
 
Office insight-q1-2015-chicago-suburban
Office insight-q1-2015-chicago-suburbanOffice insight-q1-2015-chicago-suburban
Office insight-q1-2015-chicago-suburban
 
Atlanta Office Sector Report (Q2 2016)
Atlanta Office Sector Report (Q2 2016)Atlanta Office Sector Report (Q2 2016)
Atlanta Office Sector Report (Q2 2016)
 
US Construction Trends
US Construction TrendsUS Construction Trends
US Construction Trends
 
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q2 2015)
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q2 2015)U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q2 2015)
U.S. construction trends and outlook (Q2 2015)
 
Kilroy jll high tech industry outlook fall 2011
Kilroy jll high tech industry outlook fall 2011Kilroy jll high tech industry outlook fall 2011
Kilroy jll high tech industry outlook fall 2011
 
St. Louis Office Insight
St. Louis Office InsightSt. Louis Office Insight
St. Louis Office Insight
 
Jll commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
Jll   commercial real estate market report toronto 2014Jll   commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
Jll commercial real estate market report toronto 2014
 
Q2 2016 industrial brief 7 29-16 final
Q2 2016 industrial brief 7 29-16 finalQ2 2016 industrial brief 7 29-16 final
Q2 2016 industrial brief 7 29-16 final
 
C&W MARKETBEAT- U.S. Office Q4 2018
C&W MARKETBEAT- U.S. Office Q4 2018C&W MARKETBEAT- U.S. Office Q4 2018
C&W MARKETBEAT- U.S. Office Q4 2018
 
Top Office Metros 2015 4Q
Top Office Metros 2015 4Q Top Office Metros 2015 4Q
Top Office Metros 2015 4Q
 
JLL September 2015 Baltimore Employment Update
JLL September 2015 Baltimore Employment UpdateJLL September 2015 Baltimore Employment Update
JLL September 2015 Baltimore Employment Update
 
Toronto office market report q3 2014
Toronto office market report q3 2014Toronto office market report q3 2014
Toronto office market report q3 2014
 

More from JLL

September 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
September 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookSeptember 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
September 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
August 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
August 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookAugust 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
August 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
July 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
July 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJuly 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
July 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
June 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
June 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJune 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
June 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
May 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
May 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookMay 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
May 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
Capital Markets: Slicing the debt pie
Capital Markets: Slicing the debt pieCapital Markets: Slicing the debt pie
Capital Markets: Slicing the debt pie
JLL
 
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, March 2018
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, March 2018JLL Retail: Store closure summary, March 2018
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, March 2018
JLL
 
March 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
March 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookMarch 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
March 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
February 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
February 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookFebruary 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
February 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
January 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
January 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJanuary 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
January 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
December 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
December 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookDecember 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
December 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
JLL London Office Market Seminar
JLL London Office Market SeminarJLL London Office Market Seminar
JLL London Office Market Seminar
JLL
 
November 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
November 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookNovember 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
November 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
Central London Office Market Report Q3 2017
Central London Office Market Report Q3 2017Central London Office Market Report Q3 2017
Central London Office Market Report Q3 2017
JLL
 
2017 JLL Energy Outlook
2017 JLL Energy Outlook2017 JLL Energy Outlook
2017 JLL Energy Outlook
JLL
 
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, October 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, October 2017 JLL Retail: Store closure summary, October 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, October 2017
JLL
 
October 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
October 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookOctober 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
October 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, September 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, September 2017 JLL Retail: Store closure summary, September 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, September 2017
JLL
 
September 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
September 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookSeptember 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
September 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
JLL
 
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, August 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, August 2017JLL Retail: Store closure summary, August 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, August 2017
JLL
 

More from JLL (20)

September 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
September 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookSeptember 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
September 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
August 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
August 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookAugust 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
August 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
July 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
July 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJuly 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
July 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
June 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
June 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJune 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
June 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
May 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
May 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookMay 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
May 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
Capital Markets: Slicing the debt pie
Capital Markets: Slicing the debt pieCapital Markets: Slicing the debt pie
Capital Markets: Slicing the debt pie
 
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, March 2018
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, March 2018JLL Retail: Store closure summary, March 2018
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, March 2018
 
March 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
March 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookMarch 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
March 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
February 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
February 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookFebruary 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
February 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
January 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
January 2018 U.S. employment update and outlookJanuary 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
January 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
December 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
December 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookDecember 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
December 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
JLL London Office Market Seminar
JLL London Office Market SeminarJLL London Office Market Seminar
JLL London Office Market Seminar
 
November 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
November 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookNovember 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
November 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
Central London Office Market Report Q3 2017
Central London Office Market Report Q3 2017Central London Office Market Report Q3 2017
Central London Office Market Report Q3 2017
 
2017 JLL Energy Outlook
2017 JLL Energy Outlook2017 JLL Energy Outlook
2017 JLL Energy Outlook
 
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, October 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, October 2017 JLL Retail: Store closure summary, October 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, October 2017
 
October 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
October 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookOctober 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
October 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, September 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, September 2017 JLL Retail: Store closure summary, September 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, September 2017
 
September 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
September 2017 U.S. employment update and outlookSeptember 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
September 2017 U.S. employment update and outlook
 
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, August 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, August 2017JLL Retail: Store closure summary, August 2017
JLL Retail: Store closure summary, August 2017
 

Recently uploaded

Hawthorn Module 1 Coverted to Slide Show - 04.06.2024.docx
Hawthorn Module 1 Coverted to Slide Show - 04.06.2024.docxHawthorn Module 1 Coverted to Slide Show - 04.06.2024.docx
Hawthorn Module 1 Coverted to Slide Show - 04.06.2024.docx
anothershaneroberts
 
HollandRow_17x11_Insert_Floorplan_Feature sheet.pdf
HollandRow_17x11_Insert_Floorplan_Feature sheet.pdfHollandRow_17x11_Insert_Floorplan_Feature sheet.pdf
HollandRow_17x11_Insert_Floorplan_Feature sheet.pdf
VickyAulakh1
 
Sense Levent Kagithane Catalog - Listing Turkey
Sense Levent Kagithane Catalog - Listing TurkeySense Levent Kagithane Catalog - Listing Turkey
Sense Levent Kagithane Catalog - Listing Turkey
Listing Turkey
 
Omaxe Sports City Dwarka A Comprehensive Guide
Omaxe Sports City Dwarka A Comprehensive GuideOmaxe Sports City Dwarka A Comprehensive Guide
Omaxe Sports City Dwarka A Comprehensive Guide
omaxesportscitydwark
 
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus o...
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024:  Focus o...Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024:  Focus o...
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus o...
Joseph Lewis Aguirre
 
Biography and career about Lixin Azarmehr
Biography and career about Lixin AzarmehrBiography and career about Lixin Azarmehr
Biography and career about Lixin Azarmehr
Lixin Azarmehr
 
Dynamics 365 Bid Management for Construction Projects
Dynamics 365 Bid Management for Construction ProjectsDynamics 365 Bid Management for Construction Projects
Dynamics 365 Bid Management for Construction Projects
Dynamic Netsoft
 
The KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing Turkey
The KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing TurkeyThe KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing Turkey
The KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing Turkey
Listing Turkey
 
Victory by Maskeen Group Surrey Floor plans June 2024 PDF
Victory by Maskeen Group Surrey Floor plans June 2024 PDFVictory by Maskeen Group Surrey Floor plans June 2024 PDF
Victory by Maskeen Group Surrey Floor plans June 2024 PDF
VickyAulakh1
 
SVN Live 6.3.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
SVN Live 6.3.24 Weekly Property BroadcastSVN Live 6.3.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
SVN Live 6.3.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
SVN International Corp.
 
Total Environment Tangled Up In The Green - Residential Plots Where Nature an...
Total Environment Tangled Up In The Green - Residential Plots Where Nature an...Total Environment Tangled Up In The Green - Residential Plots Where Nature an...
Total Environment Tangled Up In The Green - Residential Plots Where Nature an...
JagadishKR1
 
Listing Turkey - Yeni Eyupevleri Istanbul
Listing Turkey - Yeni Eyupevleri IstanbulListing Turkey - Yeni Eyupevleri Istanbul
Listing Turkey - Yeni Eyupevleri Istanbul
Listing Turkey
 
One20 North Vancouver Floor Plans by Three Shores Development.
One20 North Vancouver Floor Plans by Three Shores Development.One20 North Vancouver Floor Plans by Three Shores Development.
One20 North Vancouver Floor Plans by Three Shores Development.
VickyAulakh1
 
Simpolo Company Profile & Corporate Logo
Simpolo Company Profile & Corporate LogoSimpolo Company Profile & Corporate Logo
Simpolo Company Profile & Corporate Logo
simpolosparkteam
 
Serviced Apartment Ho Chi Minh For Rental
Serviced Apartment Ho Chi Minh For RentalServiced Apartment Ho Chi Minh For Rental
Serviced Apartment Ho Chi Minh For Rental
GVRenting
 
How to keep your Home naturally Cool and Warm
How to keep your Home naturally Cool and WarmHow to keep your Home naturally Cool and Warm
How to keep your Home naturally Cool and Warm
Vinra Construction
 
Revenue Keys- Begur Village Survey-Sketch
Revenue Keys- Begur Village Survey-SketchRevenue Keys- Begur Village Survey-Sketch
Revenue Keys- Begur Village Survey-Sketch
revenuekeys
 
Things to Consider When Selling Your House - Summer 2024 Edition
Things to Consider When Selling Your House - Summer 2024 EditionThings to Consider When Selling Your House - Summer 2024 Edition
Things to Consider When Selling Your House - Summer 2024 Edition
Tom Blefko
 
Riverview City Loni Kalbhor Pune Brochure
Riverview City Loni Kalbhor Pune BrochureRiverview City Loni Kalbhor Pune Brochure
Riverview City Loni Kalbhor Pune Brochure
kishor21012022
 
G+10 apartment 1- Sustainable apartment building.pdf
G+10 apartment 1- Sustainable apartment building.pdfG+10 apartment 1- Sustainable apartment building.pdf
G+10 apartment 1- Sustainable apartment building.pdf
hawifitumaed
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Hawthorn Module 1 Coverted to Slide Show - 04.06.2024.docx
Hawthorn Module 1 Coverted to Slide Show - 04.06.2024.docxHawthorn Module 1 Coverted to Slide Show - 04.06.2024.docx
Hawthorn Module 1 Coverted to Slide Show - 04.06.2024.docx
 
HollandRow_17x11_Insert_Floorplan_Feature sheet.pdf
HollandRow_17x11_Insert_Floorplan_Feature sheet.pdfHollandRow_17x11_Insert_Floorplan_Feature sheet.pdf
HollandRow_17x11_Insert_Floorplan_Feature sheet.pdf
 
Sense Levent Kagithane Catalog - Listing Turkey
Sense Levent Kagithane Catalog - Listing TurkeySense Levent Kagithane Catalog - Listing Turkey
Sense Levent Kagithane Catalog - Listing Turkey
 
Omaxe Sports City Dwarka A Comprehensive Guide
Omaxe Sports City Dwarka A Comprehensive GuideOmaxe Sports City Dwarka A Comprehensive Guide
Omaxe Sports City Dwarka A Comprehensive Guide
 
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus o...
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024:  Focus o...Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024:  Focus o...
Presentation to Windust Meadows HOA Board of Directors June 4, 2024: Focus o...
 
Biography and career about Lixin Azarmehr
Biography and career about Lixin AzarmehrBiography and career about Lixin Azarmehr
Biography and career about Lixin Azarmehr
 
Dynamics 365 Bid Management for Construction Projects
Dynamics 365 Bid Management for Construction ProjectsDynamics 365 Bid Management for Construction Projects
Dynamics 365 Bid Management for Construction Projects
 
The KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing Turkey
The KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing TurkeyThe KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing Turkey
The KA Housing - Catalogue - Listing Turkey
 
Victory by Maskeen Group Surrey Floor plans June 2024 PDF
Victory by Maskeen Group Surrey Floor plans June 2024 PDFVictory by Maskeen Group Surrey Floor plans June 2024 PDF
Victory by Maskeen Group Surrey Floor plans June 2024 PDF
 
SVN Live 6.3.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
SVN Live 6.3.24 Weekly Property BroadcastSVN Live 6.3.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
SVN Live 6.3.24 Weekly Property Broadcast
 
Total Environment Tangled Up In The Green - Residential Plots Where Nature an...
Total Environment Tangled Up In The Green - Residential Plots Where Nature an...Total Environment Tangled Up In The Green - Residential Plots Where Nature an...
Total Environment Tangled Up In The Green - Residential Plots Where Nature an...
 
Listing Turkey - Yeni Eyupevleri Istanbul
Listing Turkey - Yeni Eyupevleri IstanbulListing Turkey - Yeni Eyupevleri Istanbul
Listing Turkey - Yeni Eyupevleri Istanbul
 
One20 North Vancouver Floor Plans by Three Shores Development.
One20 North Vancouver Floor Plans by Three Shores Development.One20 North Vancouver Floor Plans by Three Shores Development.
One20 North Vancouver Floor Plans by Three Shores Development.
 
Simpolo Company Profile & Corporate Logo
Simpolo Company Profile & Corporate LogoSimpolo Company Profile & Corporate Logo
Simpolo Company Profile & Corporate Logo
 
Serviced Apartment Ho Chi Minh For Rental
Serviced Apartment Ho Chi Minh For RentalServiced Apartment Ho Chi Minh For Rental
Serviced Apartment Ho Chi Minh For Rental
 
How to keep your Home naturally Cool and Warm
How to keep your Home naturally Cool and WarmHow to keep your Home naturally Cool and Warm
How to keep your Home naturally Cool and Warm
 
Revenue Keys- Begur Village Survey-Sketch
Revenue Keys- Begur Village Survey-SketchRevenue Keys- Begur Village Survey-Sketch
Revenue Keys- Begur Village Survey-Sketch
 
Things to Consider When Selling Your House - Summer 2024 Edition
Things to Consider When Selling Your House - Summer 2024 EditionThings to Consider When Selling Your House - Summer 2024 Edition
Things to Consider When Selling Your House - Summer 2024 Edition
 
Riverview City Loni Kalbhor Pune Brochure
Riverview City Loni Kalbhor Pune BrochureRiverview City Loni Kalbhor Pune Brochure
Riverview City Loni Kalbhor Pune Brochure
 
G+10 apartment 1- Sustainable apartment building.pdf
G+10 apartment 1- Sustainable apartment building.pdfG+10 apartment 1- Sustainable apartment building.pdf
G+10 apartment 1- Sustainable apartment building.pdf
 

U.S. office market statistics (Q4 2014) and 2015 outlook

  • 1. Expansionary leasing activity driving growth across markets United States Office Review Q4 2014
  • 2. The increase in corporate profitability and economic growth will continue to result in headcount increases and expansionary leasing activity across markets. As a result, the rate of absorption will likely reach 2.0 percent of total inventory in 2015, a 25 percent increase from 2014 levels.
  • 3. Fundamentals are tightening across markets, particularly absorption, fueling new development 2 Source: JLL Research Leasing activity • Leasing activity declined by 10.2 percent overall in the fourth quarter as a result of quarterly declines in 50.0 percent of markets that JLL tracks. Leasing activity, yet, was up in the large-block segment (20K and >) and is expected to pick up again in 2015 as employment gains continue to surpass pre-recession employment totals and rightsizing is showing signs of plateauing. Absorption • Net absorption in the fourth quarter was the highest on record since the recession at 16.8 million square feet and 54.7 million square feet in 2014. This is nearly four times the amount recorded at year-end 2010 and 37 percent higher than 2013. At year-end, New York, Houston and Chicago alone contributed to more than 30 percent of total net absorption for 2014. Vacancy • With absorption at a post-recession high, vacancy is at its lowest point in the cycle at 15.6 percent with New York, San Francisco, Portland and Salt Lake City all at 10.0 percent vacancy or less. As tenants plan for further expansion in 2015, vacancy is expected to decline further, especially in Class A segments and CBDs. Rents • Rent growth was relatively flat across markets in the fourth quarter, but saw more significant growth in the Class A and B segments of suburban markets, largely a result of greater expansionary activity as vacancy rates in CBDs tighten. Construction • Construction activity increased by 12.2 percent from the third to fourth quarter with nearly 80 million square feet under construction at year-end, 77.8 percent of which is speculative. Only 10 markets tracked by JLL are without construction activity while markets like Houston, Silicon Valley, Austin and San Francisco (energy and tech) continue to top lead in terms of construction as a percent of total inventory.
  • 5. Following several quarters of strong leasing activity, Q4 posted lower results 4 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Leasingactivity(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 6. Slowdowns in New York, San Francisco, Chicago and Boston pushed year-end totals 5.2 percent below 2013 activity 5 258,547,529 246,521,385 228,764,145 275,274,581 282,356,988 234,094,033 249,187,644 236,140,690 0 50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Leasing activity (s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 7. Outside of top markets, leasing activity relatively even across geographies, similar to previous quarters 6 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 NewYork Washington,DC Boston Dallas LosAngeles Chicago NewJersey Denver OrangeCounty SanFrancisco SiliconValley Atlanta Philadelphia Seattle SanDiego Houston Oakland-EastBay Austin Phoenix Minneapolis Detroit Portland Baltimore Pittsburgh Charlotte St.Louis FairfieldCounty Indianapolis Milwaukee Cincinnati Cleveland WestPalmBeach Tampa Sacramento Miami Columbus FortLauderdale Orlando SanFranciscoPeninsula Raleigh-Durham SaltLakeCity WestchesterCounty LongIsland HamptonRoads SanAntonio Jacksonville Richmond Leasingactivity(s.f.) Source: JLL Research 41.8% 20.4% 37.8%
  • 8. 7 29.3 MSF total square feet leased in Q4 in transactions 20,000 s.f. or larger 101 average term in months 48% / 11% / 37% of tenants are growing / shrinking / stable (respectively) 52% / 48% urban / suburban breakdown of Q4 volume Large-block leasing activity increased by 3.5 percent compared to Q3 Source: JLL Research
  • 9. 8 54% of total leasing activity over 20,000 s.f. 46% of tenants are growing 16% of tenants are shrinking 23 companies were ‘new to market’ Banking, finance, and insurance generated the most activity at 3.3MSF leased Technology followed, leasing 2.8MSF 46% of total leasing activity over 20,000 s.f. 51% of tenants are growing 6% of tenants are shrinking 14 companies were ‘new to market’ Technology generated the most activity at 3.6MSF leased Banking, finance, and insurance followed, leasing 1.8MSF Companies that ignored the debate all together in Q4? WeWork and Regus Traditional industries, such as finance, continue to dominate core leasing activity; tech’s campus preference make it lead suburbs Source: JLL Research
  • 10. 9 Urban Suburban Total metro 397,525 412,940 447,220 584,063 717,839 754,502 939,491 1,147,817 2,016,105 3,952,458 0 5,000,000 Minneapolis Atlanta Houston Boston San Francisco Seattle-Bellevue Chicago New Jersey Washington, DC New York 450,791 454,524 465,752 498,688 519,785 636,858 809,550 894,578 1,096,835 2,546,429 - 5,000,000 Charlotte Northern Virginia San Francisco Peninsula Atlanta Dallas Oakland-East Bay Philadelphia Los Angeles Orange County Silicon Valley 878,203 911,628 1,023,561 1,096,835 1,161,837 1,288,716 1,558,642 2,016,105 2,566,775 3,952,458 - 5,000,000 Boston Atlanta Los Angeles Orange County Philadelphia Chicago New Jersey Washington, DC Silicon Valley New York New York and Silicon Valley lead large-block leasing volume across markets Source: JLL Research
  • 11. 10 However, large leasing is taking place throughout the United States, with a focus on gateway markets Seattle CBD Zillow: 155,000 s.f. Pleasanton North (East Bay) Workday: 151,000 s.f. Sunnyvale (Silicon Valley) Google: 946,000 s.f. North County (Orange County) St. Joseph Heritage Medical Group: 192,000 s.f. Dallas CBD Crosstex Energy: 158,000 s.f. Minneapolis CBD Seed Partners: 280,000 s.f. West Loop (Chicago) Hyatt: 229,000 s.f. Hudson Waterfront (NJ) ISO Insurance: 392,000 s.f. Penn Plaza/Garment (NYC) Amazon: 470,000 s.f. Southwest (DC) U.S. Dep’t of Education: 314,000 s.f. Source: JLL Research
  • 12. Month 00, 2014 11 Unknown Creative Consumer-oriented Non-profit Professional and business services Finance Scientific & technical - 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 Unknown Manufacturing & distribution Retail & hospitality Marketing, advertising,… Media & entertainment Association, non-profit, union Education Government Accounting, consulting, research,… Other professional and business… Law firm Real estate Banking, finance, insurance Aerospace, defense, transportation Energy & utilities Architecture, engineering,… Life sciences Telecom/Mobile Healthcare Technology - 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 Leasing activity within the scientific and technical industry cluster… …dominated by technology companies, led activity in the fourth quarter Tech and finance drove fourth-quarter leasing activity, with law, health and life sciences also boosting volumes Source: JLL Research
  • 13. Month 00, 2014 12 199 83 50 83 39 44 17 0 50 100 150 200 250 - 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 Numberoftransactions(s.f.) Leasingactivity(s.f.) s.f. leased number of transactions Leasing continues to be divided between large (100,000+) and small (< 30,000) transactions, seeing new growth in middle Source: JLL Research
  • 14. 13 485,234 6,597,165 18,216,762 4,038,366 - 10,000,000 20,000,000 C B A Trophy 41% of tenants signed leases that represented growth in Trophy buildings in Q4 Life sciences Architecture, engineering,… Real estate Manufacturing & distribution Government Telecom/Mobile Healthcare Law firm Banking, finance, insurance Technology - 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 Tenants continue to seek high quality space, even as rents rise in top metros across the country Within the Trophy segment, technology tenants leased the largest share of space in Q4 Tenants continue to take up space in Class A buildings, although dwindling space options are picking up Class B’s share Source: JLL Research
  • 15. 14 48% of companies grew in Q4 11% of companies shrunk in Q4 37% of companies were stable in Q4 Technology • 17.8% of companies Banking, finance, insurance • 7.1% of companies Healthcare • 3.6% of companies Banking, finance, insurance • 7.0% of companies Technology • 3.4% of companies Government • 3.3% of companies Law firm • 3.8% of companies Banking, finance, insurance • 1.9% of companies Manufacturing & distribution • 0.9% of companies Nearly half of all companies grew during the quarter, while law and finance remain flat Source: JLL Research
  • 17. After a recovery high in Q3, Q4 demonstrated even more gains in occupancy, with 16.8 million square feet of net absorption 16 -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterlynetabsorption(as%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research 15-year trailing annual average
  • 18. As a percent of total inventory, YTD net absorption posts highest level since 2007 17 -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTDnetabsorption(as%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research 15-year trailing annual average
  • 19. Absorption in CBD and Suburban Class A continued to mount in 2014, but Suburban markets maintain the lead 18 -10,000,000 -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterlynetabsorption(s.f.) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 20. Quarterly Class B absorption over the past four quarters is taking place 4x faster than from 2010 to Q3 2013… 19 Source: JLL Research 14,049,878 15,493,469 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 2010-Q3 2013 Past four quarters ClassBnetabsorption(s.f.) 936,658 s.f. per quarter 3,873,367 s.f. per quarter
  • 21. With demand for creative office space strengthening Class B in many submarkets across the United States 20 9.6% 7.8% 5.9% 4.6% 3.7% 3.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Boston (East Cambridge) San Francisco (SOMA) Philadelphia (The Navy Yard) Chicago (River West) Portland (Lloyd District) New York (Penn Plaza/Garment) YTDCBDClassBnetabsorption(%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research U.S. average
  • 22. Only four markets experienced a net loss of occupancy in 2014, all of which were greater than -100,000 square feet 21 -2,000,000 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 NewYork Houston Chicago Boston Atlanta Phoenix SiliconValley Dallas LosAngeles Seattle SanFrancisco OrangeCounty Denver Philadelphia Raleigh/Durham Charlotte SanDiego Baltimore Minneapolis Portland Detroit Miami SaltLakeCity SanFranciscoPeninsula Austin WestPalmBeach TampaBay Cincinnati FortLauderdale KansasCity St.Louis Columbus Sacramento Milwaukee Oakland-EastBay FairfieldCounty Indianapolis Richmond Jacksonville Cleveland SanAntonio Pittsburgh Orlando HamptonRoads NewJersey WestchesterCounty LongIsland Washington,DC YTDnetabsorption(s.f.) Source: JLL Research YTD net occupancy losses amount to 1.0 million square feet in Washington, DC
  • 23. Diversification of absorption prominent heading into 2015: New York, Florida, Atlanta and Philadelphia boost East Coast in Q4 22 -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Shareofquarterlynetabsorption East Coast Central West Coast Source: JLL Research
  • 24. More than one-fifth of absorption took place outside a specialized industry or geographic segment in 2014 as recovery broadens 23 Source: JLL Research NYC and DC (*excludes Midtown South) Tech markets (*includes Midtown South) Energy markets Sunbelt All other markets 70.0% 29.7% 6.4% 2010 5.1% 33.5% 19.0% 18.4% 23.9% 2011 0.0% 37.5% 26.0% 29.1% 7.4% 2012 11.1% 21.6% 22.3% 18.6% 26.4% 2013 13.7% 23.1% 15.3% 20.1% 27.8% 2014
  • 25. Tech and Sunbelt markets all posting above-average absorption; energy markets expected to slow in 2015 24 1.4% 1.6% 2.6% 1.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 3.6% 1.9% 2.4% 3.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% YTDnetabsorption(s.f.) Source: JLL Research Energy Tech Sunbelt U.S. average
  • 26. Atlanta and South Florida maintain absorption levels as New York, Boston, Philly and Carolinas boost East Coast gains 25 Source: JLL Research -10,000,000 -5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Netabsorption(s.f.) Atlanta South Florida Rest of the East Coast
  • 27. 4.6x as much Trophy and Class A space has been absorbed than Class B and C during the same time period from 2010-2014 26 Source: JLL Research Trophy and Class A net absorption 140.2 m.s.f.2010-2014 Class B and C net absorption 30.5 m.s.f.2011-2014
  • 28. -4,000,000 -3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Netabsorption(s.f.) Atlanta Chicago Los Angeles Miami Philadelphia Phoenix Diversified markets hit another recovery high with 3.8 million square feet of occupancy gains this quarter, led by Chicago 27 Source: JLL Research Atlanta and Phoenix have absorbed a combined 14.7 million square feet since 2010, or 54.5 percent of cumulative total.
  • 29. Lack of available Class A space keeping absorption volume steady quarter-over-quarter 28 133.5% 93.9% 74.5% 76.3% 295.2% 98.5% 82.0% 78.3% 45.2% 73.4% 63.5% 80.9% 57.3% 82.3% 66.9% 69.8% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 250.0% 300.0% 350.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption Source: JLL Research
  • 30. CBD absorption remains somewhat volatile; declining by 49.0 percent since Q3 29 166.2% 90.4% 88.8% 80.8% 100.0% 106.1% 74.8% 0.0% 88.1% 86.5% 49.6% 92.0% 48.8% 100.9% 66.4% 32.6% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption Source: JLL Research
  • 31. Absorption in Class A space maintains largest share, with CBDs and suburbs nearly evenly split 30 116.9% 97.9% 62.3% 75.1% 167.8% 102.5% 84.3% 85.3% 43.2% 73.4% 72.8% 70.3% 61.1% 67.6% 67.4% 66.8% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0% 160.0% 180.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 ClassAshareofquarterlyabsorption Source: JLL Research
  • 32. But demand for creative office space is strengthening Class B in many submarkets across the United States 31 7.3% 5.9% 5.6% 4.7% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% San Francisco (SOMA) Philadelphia (The Navy Yard) Boston (East Cambridge) Chicago (River West) Portland (Lloyd District) New York (Penn Plaza/Garment) YTDCBDClassBnetabsorption(%ofinventory) Source: JLL Research U.S. average
  • 33. Still, Class A continues to trump Class B according to most indicators 32 Source: JLL Research of absorbed space in 2014 has been Class A per square foot difference between Class A and B space… premium charged for Class A space versus Class B difference between Class A and Class B total vacancy
  • 35. The steep decline in vacancy this year, currently at 15.6 percent, is the result of nearly 55 million square feet of absorption 34 12.0% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Totalvacancy(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 36. Vacancy now at lowest level since 2008 and expected to decline even more until new space comes to the market 35 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Totalvacancy(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 37. Total vacancy declining overall, but Class B in CBDs posting sharpest decline amidst falling Class A vacancy 36 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Totalvacancy(%) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 38. As office-using employment increased by 877,000 net new jobs in 2014, vacancy declines to 15.6 percent 37 14.0% 14.5% 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5% 17.0% 17.5% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500 30,000 30,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 Totalvacancy(%) Office-usingemployment(thousands) Office-using employment (thousands) Total vacancy (%) Source: JLL Research
  • 39. CBD vacancy just 70 basis points from historic low, but Suburban vacancy still relatively high 38 5.0% 7.0% 9.0% 11.0% 13.0% 15.0% 17.0% 19.0% 21.0% 23.0% Totalvacancy(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 40. Sublease vacancy inched upward in Q4 as a result of Covington moving into new development in DC, leaving old space behind for a few years 39 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Subleasespace(s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 41. Rents
  • 42. Q4 2014 U.S. overall office clock Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Houston, San Francisco, Silicon Valley Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, Miami, Tampa, United States Cincinnati, Detroit, Hampton Roads, Long Island, San Antonio, St. Louis, Westchester County Phoenix, Salt Lake City Atlanta, Fort Lauderdale, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Orange County, Orlando, Richmond Sacramento, West Palm Beach Baltimore, Columbus, Washington, DC Dallas Austin, Pittsburgh, Portland San Francisco Peninsula Jacksonville New Jersey Chicago, Cleveland, Fairfield County, Oakland-East Bay, Raleigh-Durham, San Diego New York Charlotte, Milwaukee, Philadelphia Seattle-Bellevue Minneapolis Source: JLL Research
  • 43. Q4 2014 U.S. CBD office clock Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Austin, Houston, Portland, San Jose CBD Miami, Seattle CBD Dallas, Indianapolis, Salt Lake City, Stamford CBD Atlanta, Fort Lauderdale, Greenwich CBD, Los Angeles, Midtown (New York), Orlando, United States Cincinnati, Washington, DC, West Palm Beach Boston, Denver, Pittsburgh, Tampa Richmond, San Antonio, San Diego Baltimore, Columbus, Kansas City, White Plains CBD Jacksonville, Oakland CBD Midtown South (New York), San Francisco Chicago, Downtown (New York), Philadelphia Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Raleigh-Durham St. Louis Milwaukee, Phoenix Sacramento Minneapolis Source: JLL Research
  • 44. Peaking phase Falling phase Rising phase Bottoming phase Q4 2014 U.S. suburban office clock Atlanta, Baltimore, Cleveland, East Bay Suburbs, Hampton Roads (Peninsula), Miami, Milwaukee, Raleigh-Durham, San Diego, Westchester County Boston, Long Island (Nassau), Portland, Salt Lake City Long Island (Suffolk) Charlotte, Fort Lauderdale, Oakland Suburbs, Orlando, Philadelphia Columbus, Lehigh Valley, Northern Delaware, West Palm Beach Central New Jersey, Northern New Jersey, Northern Virginia, Suburban Maryland Dallas Denver, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Tampa Chicago, Cincinnati, Fairfield County, Hampton Roads (Southside), Sacramento, San Antonio Bellevue CBD, Richmond Austin, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Phoenix Cambridge, Houston, San Francisco (non-CBD) San Francisco Peninsula Silicon Valley Southern New Jersey Los Angeles, Pittsburgh Seattle-Bellevue, United States DetroitSource: JLL Research
  • 45. Rent growth remains subdued, but is expected to jump as lack of availability, combined with higher growth, is forecasted for 2015 44 -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterlyrentgrowth(%) Source: JLL Research
  • 46. CBD segments posting negative or nearly flat results, while suburban segments record 2.0 percent or more, year-over-year 45 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 $50.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Averageaskingrents($p.s.f.) Class A (CBD) Class A (suburban) Class B (CBD) Class B (suburban) Class C (CBD) Class C (suburban) Source: JLL Research
  • 47. But quarterly rent growth was slightly higher in CBDs than suburbs, though still below historic norms 46 -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterlyrentgrowth(%) CBD rent growth Suburban rent growth Source: JLL Research CBD average: 0.9% Suburban average: 0.2%
  • 48. The rent gap is growing between CBD and Suburbs, increasing by $0.07 in Q4 47 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 $45.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Averageaskingrent($p.s.f) CBD Suburbs Source: JLL Research $11.36 $15.05
  • 49. However, the rent gap between Class A and overall rents inching downward as demand for all other classes increases 48 $3.40 $3.49 $3.49 $3.53 $3.68 $3.81 $3.97 $3.99 $4.21 $4.26 $4.37 $4.38 $4.86 $4.71 $4.82 $4.76 $4.97 $4.92 $4.90 $4.81 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ClassApremium($p.s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 50. TI allowances are beginning to elevate due to new construction providing higher concessions 49 3.5 4.1 5.1 6.1 6.2 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.8 $23.00 $24.00 $25.00 $26.00 $27.00 $28.00 $29.00 $30.00 $31.00 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TIallowance($p.s.f.) Freemonthsofrent Free months of rent TI allowance ($ p.s.f.) Source: JLL Research
  • 52. Completions are at their highest rate since 2009, but still far below pre-recession peaks 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annualcompletions(s.f.) 51 Source: JLL Research -60.5%
  • 53. Geographic diversity of construction starts in Q4 helped to push volumes to roughly 80.0 million square feet 52 Source: JLL Research – numbers represent Q4 starts in square feet 2,496,472 Seattle 221,827 Portland 1,233,071 Bay Area 252,164 San Diego 499,200 Phoenix 416,531 Denver 590,000 Houston 314,964 Dallas 1,036,769 DC 3,029,952 New York 934,850 Charlotte 753,000 Chicago
  • 54. With starts 76.3 percent higher than 2013 levels 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Annualstarts(s.f.) 53 Source: JLL Research
  • 55. Starts of major developments continue to rise: seven of more than 500,000 s.f. broke ground in Q4 totaling more than 6.8 m.s.f. 54 Source: JLL Research 3 World Trade Center (New York) 2,861,402 s.f. Silverstein 18.0% pre-leased (Group M) Central Place (Northern Virginia) 552,781 s.f. JBG 64.6% pre-leased (CEB) Zurich North America HQ (Chicago) 753,000 s.f. Stonemont 100.0% pre-leased (Zurich) 400 Bellevue Square (Bellevue) 724,693 s.f. Kemper 0.0% pre-leased Partners Healthcare (Boston) 700,000 s.f. Federal Realty 100.0% pre-leased (Partners Healthcare) 300 South Tryon Street (Charlotte) 630,000 s.f. Spectrum/Mass Mutual 31.7% pre-leased (Babson Capital) Moffett Gateway (Silicon Valley) 600,864 s.f. Jay Paul 0.0% pre-leased 6,822,740 s.f. 3,882,576 s.f. available 2,568,295 s.f. pre-leased 37.6% pre-leased
  • 56. Over the course of 2014, tightening fundamentals have led to a surge of UC totals, up 68.9 percent year-on-year 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Underconstruction(s.f.) 55 Source: JLL Research
  • 57. Market Under construction (s.f.) Share Houston 16,225,602 20.3% Bay Area 8,246,777 10.3% Dallas 5,245,160 6.6% New York 5,203,624 6.5% Seattle-Bellevue 5,144,406 6.4% Washington, DC 4,779,129 6.0% Silicon Valley 4,284,425 5.4% Boston 4,017,760 5.0% Chicago 3,692,067 4.6% San Francisco 3,618,785 4.5% Philadelphia 3,585,450 4.5% Austin 3,444,990 4.3% Phoenix 2,345,759 2.9% Los Angeles 2,099,739 2.6% Denver 1,813,315 2.3% Raleigh-Durham 1,694,995 2.1% Cincinnati 1,679,533 2.1% All other markets 10,951,731 13.7% United States 79,826,470 100.0% As the recovery broadens, construction is moving away from just tech and energy and into a variety of markets Houston Dallas New York Seattle Washington, DC Silicon Valley Boston Chicago San Francisco Philadelphia Austin Phoenix Los Angeles Denver Raleigh-Durham Cincinnati All other markets 56 Source: JLL Research
  • 58. Typical floor plate Share of s.f. < 20,000 s.f. 8.2% 20,000-29,999 s.f. 27.9% 30,000-39,999 s.f. 18.9% 40,000-49,999 s.f. 10.1% 50,000+ s.f. 34.9% < 50,000 s.f. 50,000-99,999 s.f. 100,000-249,999 s.f. 250,000-499,999 s.f. 500,000+ s.f. Building size Share of s.f. < 50,000 s.f. 1.6% 50,000-99,999 s.f. 4.6% 100,000-249,999 s.f. 25.3% 250,000-499,999 s.f. 35.4% 500,000+ s.f. 33.2% The average development is now 250,070 s.f., with a typical floor plate of 33,657 s.f. 57 < 20,000 s.f. 20,000-29,999 s.f. 30,000-39,999 s.f. 40,000-49,999 s.f. 50,000+ s.f. Source: JLL Research
  • 59. Urban Suburban Most construction is taking place in Suburban and non-CBD locations, largely due to booms in energy and tech markets 58 CBD Non-CBD Source: JLL Research
  • 60. Market Under construction (s.f.) Share Hines 4,126,714 5.9% Trammell Crow 3,083,604 4.4% Silverstein 2,861,402 4.1% Boston Properties 2,568,963 3.7% KDC 2,421,167 3.5% Jay Paul 1,962,886 2.8% Related 1,700,000 2.4% Liberty 1,570,077 2.2% O'Donnell 1,200,000 1.7% Skanska 1,142,045 1.6% Tishman Speyer 1,131,840 1.6% Kilroy 1,045,895 1.5% All others 45,011,877 64.5% United States 79,826,470 100.0% Hines, Trammell Crow, Silverstein, Boston Properties and KDC are all developing more than 2.0 million square feet Hines Trammell Crow Silverstein Boston Properties KDC Jay Paul Related Liberty O'Donnell Skanska Tishman Speyer Kilroy All other developers 59 Source: JLL Research
  • 61. Most construction underway will be completed in late 2015 and throughout 2016, when the national office market will peak 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 Projectedcompletions(s.f.) Spec BTS 60 Source: JLL Research
  • 62. A similar pattern emerges when only looking at available space; the vast majority will come online in 2015 and 2016 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 Projectedcompletions(s.f.) Spec BTS 61 Source: JLL Research
  • 64. Office investment sales up 21.3 percent year-over-year, seeing its highest volume since 2007 63 $0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Officeinvestmentsalevolumes(billionsof$US) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Source: JLL Research
  • 65. Market Sales volume ($) Share New York $2,426,600,000 13.7% Boston $2,065,599,379 11.6% Washington, DC $1,623,250,000 9.1% Chicago $1,152,925,000 6.5% Northern Virginia $973,304,190 5.5% San Francisco Peninsula $925,233,131 5.2% Los Angeles $863,145,000 4.9% Houston $724,800,000 4.1% Seattle-Bellevue $566,070,260 3.2% Minneapolis $484,504,900 2.7% Denver $469,779,843 2.6% Atlanta $393,431,088 2.2% Portland $362,150,000 2.0% Oakland-East Bay $361,510,000 2.0% Phoenix $354,078,825 2.0% All other markets $4,021,912,058 22.6% United States $17,768,293,674 100.0% Primary markets driving quarterly volumes, followed by select secondary markets New York Boston Washington, DC Chicago Northern Virginia San Francisco Peninsula Los Angeles Houston Seattle-Bellevue Minneapolis Denver Atlanta Portland Oakland-East Bay Phoenix All other markets 64 Source: JLL Research
  • 66. A trend consistent across CBD, Suburban markets Primary markets continued to see highest velocity of CBD and Non-CBD transaction activity this quarter by dollar volume 65 $2,427 $1,571 $1,248 $773 $622 $925 $899 $817 $481 $380 $- $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 New York Washington, DC Boston Chicago Houston San Francisco Peninsula Northern Virginia Boston Minneapolis Chicago Q4officeinvestmentsalevolume(millionsof$US) Most active CBD markets Most active Non-CBD markets Of CBD volumes in Primary markets Of Non-CBD volumes in Primary markets Source: JLL Research
  • 67. 6.9% 64.5% 28.7% Trophy Class A Class B Trophy and Class B segments similarly saw transaction volumes rise in 2014… 66 8.1% 58.2% 33.7% Trophy Class A Class B Source: JLL Research
  • 68. 56.7% 43.3% Primary markets Secondary markets …but secondary market activity rising on a square footage basis, accounting for 52.9 percent of 2014 activity 67 47.1% 52.9% Primary markets Secondary markets Source: JLL Research
  • 69. Secondary CBD investment rising with noteworthy activity in Tampa, Atlanta and Philadelphia this quarter 68 54% 55% 62% 79% 51% 71% 49% 45% 46% 45% 38% 21% 49% 29% 51% 55% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 CBDtransactionvolumesas%oftotal Primary Secondary Most active secondary CBDs: Tampa, Atlanta, Philadelphia Source: JLL Research
  • 70. Florida, Texas and California seeing noteworthy turnover in annual investment sale volumes, surpassing the U.S. average 69 32% 21% 20% 20% 19% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 11% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% CBDassetturnoverratio,2014(%) United States: 11.0% Source: JLL Research
  • 71. While majority of markets have seen suburban investment overtake CBDs, 67.0 percent of sales volume took place in urban markets 70 2% 16% 19% 19% 27% 28% 30% 52% 53% 55% 56% 59% 59% 60% 72% 73% 74% 75% 81% 92% 95% 97% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 81% 81% 73% 72% 70% 48% 47% 45% 44% 41% 41% 40% 28% 27% 26% 25% 19% 8% 5% 3% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Suburban Urban Source: JLL Research
  • 72. With leading suburban submarkets driving 52.5 percent of U.S. suburban transaction activity in H2 2014 71 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% Submarkettransactionvolumes (asa%ofsuburbanmarket,H22014) Source: JLL Research
  • 73. ... And secondary suburban markets accounting for 63.0 percent of Q4 activity 72 53% 49% 51% 44% 48% 49% 30% 37% 47% 51% 49% 56% 52% 51% 70% 63% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 Suburbantransactionvolumesas%oftotal Primary Secondary Most active secondary suburbs: Denver, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Portland, Dallas Source: JLL Research
  • 75. 74 Source: JLL Research 2015 outlook strongest in nearly a decade U.S. GDP and consumer spending levels are forecasted to grow by 3.2 and 2.5 percent, respectively in 2015, which will lead to further corporate expansion and real estate demand. The increase in corporate profitability and economic growth will continue to result in headcount increases and expansionary leasing activity across markets. As a result, the rate of absorption will likely reach 2.0 percent of total inventory in 2015, a 25 percent increase from 2014 levels. Vacancy rates in many CBDs and select non-CBD markets on the edge of CBDs will see vacancy rates decline to single-digits, but fundamentals will also become increasingly tighter in suburban markets as lack of vacancy, coupled with increasing rents, pushes tenants outside of the core CBD. JLL forecasts over the next 27 months call for rent increases nationally of 13.0 to 14.0 percent, driven largely by a new wave of developments delivering, priced at 20.0 to 25.0 percent premiums, which will trickle down to reset market pricing. Exactly half of all markets are now posting under construction levels equating to 1.0 percent of inventory levels. With many developers increasingly thinking about commencing construction on proposed sites, the market over the next 36 months will likely shift from an under-supplied market to an over-supplied one by late 2016. Geographies with substantial amount of construction underway already (Texas, Bay Area), could see momentum turn a year earlier for tenants. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
  • 76. The slowdown in the energy industry, as a result of the decline in oil prices in recent weeks, will yield a slower demand environment in energy hotbeds such as Houston over the short to mid-term. Likewise, absorption in high-priced tech markets like San Francisco and Silicon Valley could also slow as rental rates reach peak levels amidst declining vacancy.
  • 77. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015 John Sikaitis Managing Director – Office and Local Markets Research +1 202 719 5839 John.Sikaitis@am.jll.com Julia Georgules Associate Director – Office Research +1 415 354 6908 Julia.Georgules@am.jll.com Sean Coghlan Manager – Capital Markets Research +1 215 988 5556 Sean.Coghlan@am.jll.com Phil Ryan Research Analyst – Office and Economy Research +1 202 719 6295 Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com >> Click to learn more, and see market-by-market data