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U.S. homeownership rate declines to
63.7 percent, a 20-year low
Residential vacancies and homeownership Q1 2015
1.
2.
3.
Homeownership continues two decade, structural decline
• This figure is 110 bps lower year-on-year; 30 bps lower quarter-on-quarter
• Homeownership rates decline in spite of steady employment growth since
fourth quarter 2009
Millennial homeownership further declines to 34.6 percent
• Reported homeownership declines for under-35 householders in nearly every
quarter from the start of 2005, down 330 bps from the first quarter of 2011
• Homeownership for those aged 35 to 44 demonstrated the starkest decline in
the same time frame, falling 6.0 percent to a reading of 58.4 percent
Vacancy rates continue to drop in all geographies
• The national rental housing vacancy rate was reported at 7.1 percent, 120
basis points lower than the previous year’s first quarter reading of 8.3 percent
• Rental vacancy rates in all regions of the country have declined year-on-year
U.S. homeownership rate declines to 63.7 percent in first
quarter, representative of continued structural shifts
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
2
The homeownership rate was recorded at 63.7 percent for first
quarter 2015, the lowest reading in over 20 years
3
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
64.2%
63.7%
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
66.0
67.0
68.0
69.0
70.0
Homeownership(%)
… And this shift is happening across geographies
4
Homeownership declines in excess of 1.0 percent year-over-year in Northeast, Midwest and South
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
55.0
57.0
59.0
61.0
63.0
65.0
67.0
69.0
71.0
73.0
75.0
Homeownership(%)
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
Renter-occupied households increased 26.9 percent since 2005
5
This increase parallels the decrease in under-35 homeownership in the same time period
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Renter-occupiedhouseholds(thousands)
Homeownership(%)
Renter-occupied households U.S. homeownership Under 35 homeownership
43.3%
(2005 Q1)
34.6%
(2015 Q1)
Inverse relationship between ownership and employment growth
6
Steady homeownership rate declines since peaking at 69.0 percent in 2004 persist despite continued
employment gains in current cycle
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau,, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
140,000
142,000
144,000
146,000
148,000
150,000
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
Employed,16yearsandover(seasonallyadjusted,thousands)
Homeownership(%)
U.S. Employed, 16 years and over - SA
Cities outpacing suburbs in rate of homeownership declines
7
The share of U.S. homebuyers making their first purchase dropped in 2014 to the lowest level in
three decades
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors (NAR)
Percent Change,
2005 - 2015
-7.8%
U.S.
-8.5%
Cities
-8.1%
Suburbs
69.1
67.1
63.7
54.1 52.6
49.5
76.9
74.2
70.7
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Homeownership(%)
U.S. Cities Suburbs
Homeownership rates slide across all age cohorts
8
Pronounced declines of over 7.0 percent nationally over a decade, as well as throughout age
cohorts—notably from the millennial and gen x segment
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
-7.2
-18.1
-15.6
-8.1
-6.0
-1.4
-20.0
-18.0
-16.0
-14.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
U.S. Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over
Declineinhomeownership2005-2014(%)
With millennials seeing declines in nearly every quarter since Q1
2005, down 330 bps from Q1 2011
9
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1
Homeownershiprateannualchange(bps)
U.S. Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years
43.3%
(2005 Q1)
34.6%
(2015 Q1)
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
… And these declines continued this quarter
10
Millennial homeownership declined 2.0 percent in the first quarter alone, a rate exceeding the U.S.
average by a multiple of four
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Urban Land Institute
-0.5
-2.0
-0.7
-0.6
0.0
-0.6
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
U.S. Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over
Declineinhomeownership,Q-o-Q(%)
… Driving rates for millennials to decline to 34.6 percent
11
Endemic debt and lagging wages are two reasons keeping millennials out of homeownership, driving
a 20.1 percent decline over the past ten years
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
64.2
67.1
69.1
67.1
63.7
37.7
40.5
43.3
38.9
34.6
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
Homeownership(%)
U.S. Under 35 Years
-7.8%
U.S.
-20.1%
Under-35 years
Percent Change,
2005 - 2015
Only 70.1 percent of those aged 45 to 54 currently own a home
12
This figure has declined from a high of 77.4 percent in the second half of 2004; those aged 55 to 64
have experienced similar declines over the same time frame
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau,
76.5
74.8
70.1
81.8
79.1
75.8
64.0
66.0
68.0
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
Homeownership(%)
45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years
-7.3%
55 to 64 years
-8.4%
45 to 54 years
Percent Change,
2005 - 2015
Those below median family income now below 50.0 percent
13
Those with means actively choosing mobility and freedom, whereas those with comparatively less are unable to
grow wealth through the traditional means of homeownership and thus renting
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
-5.1%
U.S.
-4.4%
Above or equal to
median family income
67.1 66.4
65.4 65.0 64.8
63.7
82.0 81.5
80.3 80.0 79.8
78.4
52.2
51.4
50.4 50.0 49.8
48.9
48.0
53.0
58.0
63.0
68.0
73.0
78.0
83.0
Homeownership(%)
U.S. Above or equal Below
-6.3%
Below median
family income
Percent Change,
2010 - 2015
U.S. vacancy rates reported at 7.1 percent for rental housing
14
Year-on-year vacancies in metros are declining at the fastest rate–14.8 percent
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Rentalvacancy(%)
U.S. Metros Cities
Tightening vacancies across regions led by Northeast, Midwest
15
Rental vacancies have declined in each region by at least 70 bps compared to rates from Q1 2014
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Rentalvacancy(%)
U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015
For more information, please contact:
Sean Coghlan
Director
Investor Research
+1 215 988 5556
Sean.Coghlan@am.jll.com
Mike Morrone
Research Analyst, Multifamily
Investor Research
+1 312 228 2304
Michael.Morrone@am.jll.com
Or, find more multifamily real estate research at jll.com.
>>> Click here to check it out.

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U.S. homeownership rate and trends (Q1 2015)

  • 1. U.S. homeownership rate declines to 63.7 percent, a 20-year low Residential vacancies and homeownership Q1 2015
  • 2. 1. 2. 3. Homeownership continues two decade, structural decline • This figure is 110 bps lower year-on-year; 30 bps lower quarter-on-quarter • Homeownership rates decline in spite of steady employment growth since fourth quarter 2009 Millennial homeownership further declines to 34.6 percent • Reported homeownership declines for under-35 householders in nearly every quarter from the start of 2005, down 330 bps from the first quarter of 2011 • Homeownership for those aged 35 to 44 demonstrated the starkest decline in the same time frame, falling 6.0 percent to a reading of 58.4 percent Vacancy rates continue to drop in all geographies • The national rental housing vacancy rate was reported at 7.1 percent, 120 basis points lower than the previous year’s first quarter reading of 8.3 percent • Rental vacancy rates in all regions of the country have declined year-on-year U.S. homeownership rate declines to 63.7 percent in first quarter, representative of continued structural shifts Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2
  • 3. The homeownership rate was recorded at 63.7 percent for first quarter 2015, the lowest reading in over 20 years 3 Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau 64.2% 63.7% 60.0 61.0 62.0 63.0 64.0 65.0 66.0 67.0 68.0 69.0 70.0 Homeownership(%)
  • 4. … And this shift is happening across geographies 4 Homeownership declines in excess of 1.0 percent year-over-year in Northeast, Midwest and South Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau 55.0 57.0 59.0 61.0 63.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 73.0 75.0 Homeownership(%) U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
  • 5. Renter-occupied households increased 26.9 percent since 2005 5 This increase parallels the decrease in under-35 homeownership in the same time period Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Renter-occupiedhouseholds(thousands) Homeownership(%) Renter-occupied households U.S. homeownership Under 35 homeownership 43.3% (2005 Q1) 34.6% (2015 Q1)
  • 6. Inverse relationship between ownership and employment growth 6 Steady homeownership rate declines since peaking at 69.0 percent in 2004 persist despite continued employment gains in current cycle Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau,, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 132,000 134,000 136,000 138,000 140,000 142,000 144,000 146,000 148,000 150,000 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 Employed,16yearsandover(seasonallyadjusted,thousands) Homeownership(%) U.S. Employed, 16 years and over - SA
  • 7. Cities outpacing suburbs in rate of homeownership declines 7 The share of U.S. homebuyers making their first purchase dropped in 2014 to the lowest level in three decades Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors (NAR) Percent Change, 2005 - 2015 -7.8% U.S. -8.5% Cities -8.1% Suburbs 69.1 67.1 63.7 54.1 52.6 49.5 76.9 74.2 70.7 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 Homeownership(%) U.S. Cities Suburbs
  • 8. Homeownership rates slide across all age cohorts 8 Pronounced declines of over 7.0 percent nationally over a decade, as well as throughout age cohorts—notably from the millennial and gen x segment Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau -7.2 -18.1 -15.6 -8.1 -6.0 -1.4 -20.0 -18.0 -16.0 -14.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 U.S. Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over Declineinhomeownership2005-2014(%)
  • 9. With millennials seeing declines in nearly every quarter since Q1 2005, down 330 bps from Q1 2011 9 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 Homeownershiprateannualchange(bps) U.S. Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 43.3% (2005 Q1) 34.6% (2015 Q1) Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau
  • 10. … And these declines continued this quarter 10 Millennial homeownership declined 2.0 percent in the first quarter alone, a rate exceeding the U.S. average by a multiple of four Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Urban Land Institute -0.5 -2.0 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.6 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 U.S. Under 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years 65 years and over Declineinhomeownership,Q-o-Q(%)
  • 11. … Driving rates for millennials to decline to 34.6 percent 11 Endemic debt and lagging wages are two reasons keeping millennials out of homeownership, driving a 20.1 percent decline over the past ten years Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau 64.2 67.1 69.1 67.1 63.7 37.7 40.5 43.3 38.9 34.6 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 Homeownership(%) U.S. Under 35 Years -7.8% U.S. -20.1% Under-35 years Percent Change, 2005 - 2015
  • 12. Only 70.1 percent of those aged 45 to 54 currently own a home 12 This figure has declined from a high of 77.4 percent in the second half of 2004; those aged 55 to 64 have experienced similar declines over the same time frame Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau, 76.5 74.8 70.1 81.8 79.1 75.8 64.0 66.0 68.0 70.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 80.0 82.0 84.0 Homeownership(%) 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years -7.3% 55 to 64 years -8.4% 45 to 54 years Percent Change, 2005 - 2015
  • 13. Those below median family income now below 50.0 percent 13 Those with means actively choosing mobility and freedom, whereas those with comparatively less are unable to grow wealth through the traditional means of homeownership and thus renting Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau -5.1% U.S. -4.4% Above or equal to median family income 67.1 66.4 65.4 65.0 64.8 63.7 82.0 81.5 80.3 80.0 79.8 78.4 52.2 51.4 50.4 50.0 49.8 48.9 48.0 53.0 58.0 63.0 68.0 73.0 78.0 83.0 Homeownership(%) U.S. Above or equal Below -6.3% Below median family income Percent Change, 2010 - 2015
  • 14. U.S. vacancy rates reported at 7.1 percent for rental housing 14 Year-on-year vacancies in metros are declining at the fastest rate–14.8 percent Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Rentalvacancy(%) U.S. Metros Cities
  • 15. Tightening vacancies across regions led by Northeast, Midwest 15 Rental vacancies have declined in each region by at least 70 bps compared to rates from Q1 2014 Source: JLL Research, U.S. Census Bureau 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Rentalvacancy(%) U.S. Northeast Midwest South West
  • 16. COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2015 For more information, please contact: Sean Coghlan Director Investor Research +1 215 988 5556 Sean.Coghlan@am.jll.com Mike Morrone Research Analyst, Multifamily Investor Research +1 312 228 2304 Michael.Morrone@am.jll.com Or, find more multifamily real estate research at jll.com. >>> Click here to check it out.