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Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP Presidential Professor and Director of Metropolitan Research University of Utah University ...
<ul><li>Changing Demographic Profile </li></ul><ul><li>Changing Preferences </li></ul><ul><li>Housing Tenure Changes </li>...
<ul><li>Percent of households with and without children, 1960, 2000, and 2040 </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Househ...
Distribution of Household Growth  by Type, 2000-2040 Household Type Growth   Share Total Growth   54M With Children     7M...
Source:  US Census Bureau  – 65+ in the United States: 2005;  Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A ...
Source :  National Association of Realtors, American Preference Survey 2004.
<ul><li>Unit Type   Share </li></ul><ul><li>Attached 38% </li></ul><ul><li>  Apartments   14% </li></ul><ul><li>  Condos, ...
<ul><li>Seniors who prefer city or </li></ul><ul><li>close-in suburban location 51% </li></ul><ul><li>(National Associatio...
<ul><li>Year Units  Detached  Share  Own </li></ul><ul><li>2003 1,889  1,461   77%  67% </li></ul><ul><li>2004 2,052  1,59...
<ul><li>Year   Owner Reasons </li></ul><ul><li>1960   62% *Sub-prime fallout </li></ul><ul><li>1970   63% *Rising fuel pri...
<ul><li>Dwellings  2005  2040  Change  Share </li></ul><ul><li>Occupied 109m  155m   46m </li></ul><ul><li>Owner   75m  93...
<ul><li>Geography  2005  2040  Rent2040 </li></ul><ul><li>Central Cities    29%  30%  65% </li></ul><ul><li>Suburbs    49%...
<ul><li>Nonresidential Space 2005   35B </li></ul><ul><li>Nonresidential Space 2040   50B </li></ul><ul><li>Growth-related...
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THE NEW URBANITY

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Arthur C. Nelson's presentation for the Penn IUR conference

"The Shape of the New American City"

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THE NEW URBANITY

  1. 1. Arthur C. Nelson, Ph.D., FAICP Presidential Professor and Director of Metropolitan Research University of Utah University of Pennsylvania October 24, 2008
  2. 2. <ul><li>Changing Demographic Profile </li></ul><ul><li>Changing Preferences </li></ul><ul><li>Housing Tenure Changes </li></ul><ul><li>Trends to Mid Century </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Percent of households with and without children, 1960, 2000, and 2040 </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Household Type 1960 2000 2040 </li></ul><ul><li>HH with Children 48% 33% 26% </li></ul><ul><li>HH w/o Children 52% 67% 74% </li></ul><ul><li> Single/Other HH 13% 30% 34% </li></ul>
  4. 4. Distribution of Household Growth by Type, 2000-2040 Household Type Growth Share Total Growth 54M With Children 7M 14% Without Children 47M 86% Single/Other 20M 38%
  5. 5. Source: US Census Bureau – 65+ in the United States: 2005; Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, & Kimberly A DeBarros. December 2005 .
  6. 6. Source : National Association of Realtors, American Preference Survey 2004.
  7. 7. <ul><li>Unit Type Share </li></ul><ul><li>Attached 38% </li></ul><ul><li> Apartments 14% </li></ul><ul><li> Condos, Coops 9% </li></ul><ul><li> Townhouses 15% </li></ul><ul><li>Detached 62% </li></ul><ul><li> Small Lot (<7,000 sf) 37% </li></ul><ul><li> Large Lot (>7,000 sf) 25% </li></ul><ul><li>Source : Low range of surveys reviewed by Arthur C. Nelson, “Planning for a New Era,” </li></ul><ul><li>Journal of the American Planning Association , Fall 2006. </li></ul>
  8. 8. <ul><li>Seniors who prefer city or </li></ul><ul><li>close-in suburban location 51% </li></ul><ul><li>(National Association of Realtors & Smart Growth </li></ul><ul><li>America 2004 – pre meltdown) </li></ul><ul><li>Households who prefer urban- </li></ul><ul><li>related neighborhood attributes 33% </li></ul><ul><li>(RCLCo controlled preference surveys 2005 – pre meltdown) </li></ul><ul><li>Households who prefer urban- </li></ul><ul><li>related neighborhood attributes 50% </li></ul><ul><li>(Handy et al. JAPA 2008) </li></ul>
  9. 9. <ul><li>Year Units Detached Share Own </li></ul><ul><li>2003 1,889 1,461 77% 67% </li></ul><ul><li>2004 2,052 1,596 78% 69% </li></ul><ul><li>2005 2,070 1,613 78% 69% </li></ul><ul><li>2006 2,155 1,682 78% 69% </li></ul><ul><li>2007 1,839 1,378 75% 68% </li></ul><ul><li>Total 10,006 7,731 77% </li></ul><ul><li>Ave. 2,001 1,546 77% 68% </li></ul><ul><li>Source : Census data compiled by Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor and Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah. </li></ul>
  10. 10. <ul><li>Year Owner Reasons </li></ul><ul><li>1960 62% *Sub-prime fallout </li></ul><ul><li>1970 63% *Rising fuel prices </li></ul><ul><li>1980 64% *Rigorous underwriting </li></ul><ul><li>1990 65% - Private sector </li></ul><ul><li>2000 67% - New Fed oversight </li></ul><ul><li>2010 65% *Gen-X, Y, Z+ mobility pref. </li></ul><ul><li>2020 62% *Senior tenure shifts? </li></ul><ul><li>2030 60% *Stifled mortgage innovation </li></ul><ul><li>2040 60% *Rising urban land prices </li></ul><ul><li>*Better investments alts. </li></ul>
  11. 11. <ul><li>Dwellings 2005 2040 Change Share </li></ul><ul><li>Occupied 109m 155m 46m </li></ul><ul><li>Owner 75m 93m 18m 40% </li></ul><ul><li>Renter 34m 62m 28m 60% </li></ul><ul><li>Dwellings 2005 2020 Change Share </li></ul><ul><li>Occupied 109m 127m 18m </li></ul><ul><li>Owner 75m 80m 5m 28% </li></ul><ul><li>Renter 34m 47m 13m 72% </li></ul>
  12. 12. <ul><li>Geography 2005 2040 Rent2040 </li></ul><ul><li>Central Cities 29% 30% 65% </li></ul><ul><li>Suburbs 49% 55% 30% </li></ul><ul><li>Nonmetropolitan 22% 15% 25% </li></ul><ul><li>Geography Rent2005 Rent2040 Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Central Cities 14m 30m 108% </li></ul><ul><li>Suburbs 14m 26m 87% </li></ul><ul><li>Nonmetropolitan 6m 6m 5% </li></ul><ul><li>Source : Arthur C. Nelson, Presidential Professor and Director of Metropolitan Research, University of Utah. </li></ul>
  13. 13. <ul><li>Nonresidential Space 2005 35B </li></ul><ul><li>Nonresidential Space 2040 50B </li></ul><ul><li>Growth-related space 15B </li></ul><ul><li>Rebuilt space 40B </li></ul><ul><li>Total nonresidential constructed 55B </li></ul><ul><li>Value $7.0T </li></ul><ul><li>Growth-related residential units 15m </li></ul><ul><li>Rebuilt residential units 8m </li></ul><ul><li>Total units built 23m </li></ul><ul><li>Total residential construction $9.0T </li></ul><ul><li>Total construction (excl. infrastructure) $16.0T </li></ul><ul><li>Share of total US construction 50% </li></ul>

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