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State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 1
International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide
Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget
Objectives trends, FY15-17
($ million)
FY17
Services
1%
Education
2%
Admin.
5%
Democracy
8%
Economic
14%
Humanitarian
18%
Security
25%
Health
27%
Traffic Light color key:
red decreased 10+%
yellow between -10% & 10%
green increased 10+%
Objective FY15
actual
FY17
request
+/-
TOTAL 32,737 34,001 1,264 4%
Health 9,295 9,270 -25 -0%
Security 8,676 8,396 -280 -3%
Humanitarian 6,333 5,964 -369 -6%
Economic 3,912 4,838 926 24%
Democracy 1,934 2,720 786 41%
Admin. 1,411 1,687 276 20%
Education 906 788 -118 -13%
Services 271 388 117 43%
State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 2
International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide
Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget
Health Programs trends, FY15-17
($ million)
FY17
Security
1%
Other
1%
Tuberculosis
2%
Water
2%Nutrition
3%
Family
7%
Malaria
8%
Maternal
11% HIV/AIDS
65%
Program FY15
actual
FY17
request
+/-
TOTAL 9,295 9,270 -25 -0%
HIV/AIDS 6,000 6,000 0 0%
Maternal 988 1,055 67 7%
Malaria 670 745 75 11%
Family 616 620 4 1%
Nutrition 267 243 -24 -9%
Water 313 223 -90 -29%
Tuberculosis 242 195 -47 -19%
Other 126 117 -9 -7%
Security 73 73 0 0%
State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 3
International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide
Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget
Security Programs trends, FY15-17
($ million)
FY17
Crime
1%
WMD
4%Terror
4%Conflcit
5%
Narcotics
6%
Stabilization
80%
Program FY15
actual
FY17
request
+/-
TOTAL 8,676 8,396 -280 -3%
Stabilization 6,970 6,748 -222 -3%
Narcotics 542 514 -28 -5%
Conflict 420 411 -9 -2%
Terror 326 328 2 1%
WMD 299 300 1 0%
Crime 120 95 -25 -21%
State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 4
International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide
Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget
Humanitarian, Administration trends, FY15-17
($ million)
Humanitarian programs
Program FY15
actual
FY17
request
+/-
TOTAL 6,333 5,964 -369 -6%
Protection 6,205 5,780 -425 -7%
Readiness 89 155 66 74%
Migration 38 30 -8 -21%
Administration
Program FY15
actual
FY17
request
+/-
TOTAL 1,411 1,687 276 20%
Administration 1,410 1,685 275 20%
Program design 1.5 1.3 -0.2 -13%
State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 5
International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide
Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget
Economic Programs trends, FY15-17
($ million)
FY17
Finance
1%
Opportunity
5%Trade
5%
Infrastructure
12%
Private sector
12%
Macroecon.
14%
Agriculture
23%
Environment
26%
Objective FY15
actual
FY17
request
+/-
TOTAL 3,912 4,838 926 24%
Environment 860 1,276 416 48%
Agriculture 1,083 1,130 47 4%
Macroecon. 474 696 222 47%
Private sector 350 584 234 67%
Infrastructure 460 580 120 26%
Trade 157 264 107 68%
Opportunity 271 250 -21 -8%
Finance 258 59 -199 -77%
State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 6
International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide
Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget
Democracy Programs trends, FY15-17
($ million)
FY17
Competition
6%
Civil Society
24%
Rule of Law
28%
Governance
42%
Program FY15
actual
FY17
request
+/-
TOTAL 1,934 2,720 786 41%
Governance 716 1,130 414 58%
Rule of Law 659 765 106 16%
Civil Society 396 652 256 65%
Competition 163 173 10 6%
State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 7
International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide
Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget
Education Programs trends, FY15-17
($ million)
FY17
Higher
29%
Basic
71%
Program FY15
actual
FY17
request
+/-
TOTAL 906 788 -118 -13%
Basic 676 562 -114 -17%
Higher 230 226 -4 -2%
State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 8
International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide
Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget
Services Programs trends, FY15-17
($ million)
FY17
Policies
6%
Services
22%
Assistance
72%
Program FY15
actual
FY17
request
+/-
TOTAL 271 338 67 25%
Assistance 155 243 88 57%
Services 107 75 -32 -30%
Policies 9 20 11 122%
Policies
6%
Services
22%
Assistance
72%
State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 9
short full (State/AID)
Health Health
Security Peace and Security
Humanitarian Humanitarian Assistance
Economic Economic Growth
Democracy Governing Justly and Democratically
Admin. Program Support
Education Education
Services Social and Economic Services and
Protection for Vulnerable Populations
HIV/AIDS HIV/AIDS
Maternal Maternal and Child Health
Malaria Malaria
Family Family Planning and Reproductive
Health
Nutrition Nutrition
Water Water Supply and Sanitation
Tuberculosis Tuberculosis
Other Other Public Health Threats
Security [health] Global Health Security in Development
(GHSD)
Stabilization Stabilization Operations and Security
Sector Reform
Narcotics Counter-Narcotics
Conflict Conflict Mitigations and Reconciliation
Terror Counterterrorism
WMD Combating Weapons of Mass
destruction (WMD)
Crime Transnational Crime
Key to Objectives, Program Areas
short full (State/AID)
Protection Protection, Assistance & Solutions
Readiness Disaster Readiness
Migration Migration Management
Environment Environment
Agriculture Agriculture
Macroecon. Macroeconomic Foundations
for Growth
Private sector Private Sector Competitiveness
Infrastructure Infrastructure
Trade Trade and Investment
Opportunity Economic Opportunity
Finance Financial Sector
Governance Good Governance
Rule of law Rule of Law and Human Rights
Civil society Civil Society
Competition Political Competition and
Consensus-Building
Administration Administration and oversight
Program Design Program Design and Learning
Basic Basic Education
Higher Higher Education
Assistance Social Assistance
Services Social Services
Policies Policies, Regulations and Systems

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Fair Trash Reduction - West Hartford, CT
 

US foreign aid, FY15-17: Economic & Political up, Education down

  • 1. State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 1 International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget Objectives trends, FY15-17 ($ million) FY17 Services 1% Education 2% Admin. 5% Democracy 8% Economic 14% Humanitarian 18% Security 25% Health 27% Traffic Light color key: red decreased 10+% yellow between -10% & 10% green increased 10+% Objective FY15 actual FY17 request +/- TOTAL 32,737 34,001 1,264 4% Health 9,295 9,270 -25 -0% Security 8,676 8,396 -280 -3% Humanitarian 6,333 5,964 -369 -6% Economic 3,912 4,838 926 24% Democracy 1,934 2,720 786 41% Admin. 1,411 1,687 276 20% Education 906 788 -118 -13% Services 271 388 117 43%
  • 2. State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 2 International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget Health Programs trends, FY15-17 ($ million) FY17 Security 1% Other 1% Tuberculosis 2% Water 2%Nutrition 3% Family 7% Malaria 8% Maternal 11% HIV/AIDS 65% Program FY15 actual FY17 request +/- TOTAL 9,295 9,270 -25 -0% HIV/AIDS 6,000 6,000 0 0% Maternal 988 1,055 67 7% Malaria 670 745 75 11% Family 616 620 4 1% Nutrition 267 243 -24 -9% Water 313 223 -90 -29% Tuberculosis 242 195 -47 -19% Other 126 117 -9 -7% Security 73 73 0 0%
  • 3. State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 3 International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget Security Programs trends, FY15-17 ($ million) FY17 Crime 1% WMD 4%Terror 4%Conflcit 5% Narcotics 6% Stabilization 80% Program FY15 actual FY17 request +/- TOTAL 8,676 8,396 -280 -3% Stabilization 6,970 6,748 -222 -3% Narcotics 542 514 -28 -5% Conflict 420 411 -9 -2% Terror 326 328 2 1% WMD 299 300 1 0% Crime 120 95 -25 -21%
  • 4. State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 4 International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget Humanitarian, Administration trends, FY15-17 ($ million) Humanitarian programs Program FY15 actual FY17 request +/- TOTAL 6,333 5,964 -369 -6% Protection 6,205 5,780 -425 -7% Readiness 89 155 66 74% Migration 38 30 -8 -21% Administration Program FY15 actual FY17 request +/- TOTAL 1,411 1,687 276 20% Administration 1,410 1,685 275 20% Program design 1.5 1.3 -0.2 -13%
  • 5. State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 5 International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget Economic Programs trends, FY15-17 ($ million) FY17 Finance 1% Opportunity 5%Trade 5% Infrastructure 12% Private sector 12% Macroecon. 14% Agriculture 23% Environment 26% Objective FY15 actual FY17 request +/- TOTAL 3,912 4,838 926 24% Environment 860 1,276 416 48% Agriculture 1,083 1,130 47 4% Macroecon. 474 696 222 47% Private sector 350 584 234 67% Infrastructure 460 580 120 26% Trade 157 264 107 68% Opportunity 271 250 -21 -8% Finance 258 59 -199 -77%
  • 6. State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 6 International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget Democracy Programs trends, FY15-17 ($ million) FY17 Competition 6% Civil Society 24% Rule of Law 28% Governance 42% Program FY15 actual FY17 request +/- TOTAL 1,934 2,720 786 41% Governance 716 1,130 414 58% Rule of Law 659 765 106 16% Civil Society 396 652 256 65% Competition 163 173 10 6%
  • 7. State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 7 International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget Education Programs trends, FY15-17 ($ million) FY17 Higher 29% Basic 71% Program FY15 actual FY17 request +/- TOTAL 906 788 -118 -13% Basic 676 562 -114 -17% Higher 230 226 -4 -2%
  • 8. State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 8 International Insights, LLC risk & opportunity worldwide Traffic Light analysis: Foreign Operations budget Services Programs trends, FY15-17 ($ million) FY17 Policies 6% Services 22% Assistance 72% Program FY15 actual FY17 request +/- TOTAL 271 338 67 25% Assistance 155 243 88 57% Services 107 75 -32 -30% Policies 9 20 11 122% Policies 6% Services 22% Assistance 72%
  • 9. State/AID Cong’l Justification, Annex III, p. 518 Copyright © 2015 Daniel Friedheim. All rights reserved. 9 short full (State/AID) Health Health Security Peace and Security Humanitarian Humanitarian Assistance Economic Economic Growth Democracy Governing Justly and Democratically Admin. Program Support Education Education Services Social and Economic Services and Protection for Vulnerable Populations HIV/AIDS HIV/AIDS Maternal Maternal and Child Health Malaria Malaria Family Family Planning and Reproductive Health Nutrition Nutrition Water Water Supply and Sanitation Tuberculosis Tuberculosis Other Other Public Health Threats Security [health] Global Health Security in Development (GHSD) Stabilization Stabilization Operations and Security Sector Reform Narcotics Counter-Narcotics Conflict Conflict Mitigations and Reconciliation Terror Counterterrorism WMD Combating Weapons of Mass destruction (WMD) Crime Transnational Crime Key to Objectives, Program Areas short full (State/AID) Protection Protection, Assistance & Solutions Readiness Disaster Readiness Migration Migration Management Environment Environment Agriculture Agriculture Macroecon. Macroeconomic Foundations for Growth Private sector Private Sector Competitiveness Infrastructure Infrastructure Trade Trade and Investment Opportunity Economic Opportunity Finance Financial Sector Governance Good Governance Rule of law Rule of Law and Human Rights Civil society Civil Society Competition Political Competition and Consensus-Building Administration Administration and oversight Program Design Program Design and Learning Basic Basic Education Higher Higher Education Assistance Social Assistance Services Social Services Policies Policies, Regulations and Systems