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Us economy
- 1. US Economy –Prelim GDP q/q Source : National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2014 (advance estimate) By Bharat Pandya bharat@brichmoney.com Cell: 91 9624044866
- 2. Gross GDP 3.9 4.9 3.7 4.1 Gross domesticproduct (GDP).... Gross domestic product (GDP).... 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.8 2.8 -1.3 3.2 1.4 1.2 2.8 0.1 1.1 2.5 2.6 0.1 2011 2012 2013 2010Q22010Q32010Q42011Q12011Q22011Q32011Q42012Q12012Q22012Q32012Q42013Q12013Q22013Q32013Q42014Q1 Prediction is low it may be up.....
- 3. Net exports ofgoods and services...... 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 AxisTitle Exports.............................. Goods.............................. Services........................... -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 AxisTitle Axis Title Imports.............................. Goods.............................. Services........................... Goods & Service data released are better than this prediction
- 4. Government consumption expenditures -5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 1 23 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Federal.............................. National defense................... -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 National defense................... Nondefense.........................
- 5. Final sales ofdomestic product.... Gross domestic purchases........... 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Final sales of domestic product.... Gross domestic purchases........... CB Consumer Confidence data released is flat so this should not be so negative see column 19
- 6. expenditures (for services)...... 1.50 2.00 2.50 expenditures(for services)...... 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 expenditures (for services)...... It supports data released for services
- 7. Gross domestic product............. 109.000 109.500 110.000 110.500 111.000 Grossdomestic product............. 106.500 107.000 107.500 108.000 108.500 109.000 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 Gross domestic product............. Economy is improving......
- 8. Exports of goodsand services.............. 128.000 130.000 132.000 Exports of goods and services.............. Durable Goods Orders m/m & Flash Services PMI are positive so this may be higher than this predicted one 120.000 122.000 124.000 126.000 1 2 3 4 5 Exports of goods and services..............
- 9. Imports of goodsand services.............. 123.000 124.000 125.000 Imports of goods and services.............. Decreasing Import is good for economy.... 118.000 119.000 120.000 121.000 122.000 1 2 3 4 5 Imports of goods and services..............
- 10. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)... 106.000 107.000 108.000 109.000 Personalconsumption expenditures (PCE)... This is improving and supported by Consumer Confidence data 102.000 103.000 104.000 105.000 106.000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)...
- 11. Personal income1........................... 13800.0 14000.0 14200.0 14400.0 14600.0 Personal income1........................... PersonalIncome is Improving...... 12400.0 12600.0 12800.0 13000.0 13200.0 13400.0 13600.0 2011 2012 2013 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 Personal income1...........................
- 12. Wages & Salary 7000.0 7200.0 7400.0 Wagesand salaries..................... 6200.0 6400.0 6600.0 6800.0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Wages and salaries..................... Wages &Salary – Income is Improving......
- 13. Observations: • Technical Supports: –Gold: 1255 – 1246 – 1240 – Dollar Index: Fibo Levels: • Trend up – Presently at 38.2 % Level may reach 50% level at 80.90 • 23.6% level – 79.95 Economy is Improving Income is Improving Data released this week supports improvement Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Durable Goods Orders m/m Flash Services PMI Richmond Manufacturing Index Richmond Manufacturing Index 23.6% level – 79.95 • Fundamental: – If GDP data shows improvement Gold price may go down Richmond Manufacturing Index