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Under the lens-audio_slides-09-30-11-sub-test_results_in
- 1. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 2. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 3. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Protectionism beckons as leaders push world into Depression Pritchard Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 4. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 5. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 6. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 7. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 8. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 9. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 10. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 11. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 12. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 13. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 14. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 15. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 16. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 17. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 18. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 19. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 20. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 21. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 22. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 23. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 24. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 INSOLVENT BANKS Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 25. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 26. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 27. Global Macro Tipping Points β October 2011September 30th, 2011 EURO EXPERIMENT: Test Results In! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
- 28. DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/UnderTheLens
Editor's Notes
- IMFβs Quarterly Global Financial Stability Map was just released and it reflects increasing Global Risk β especially in the four areas of: 1- Credit Risk, 2- Market and Liquidity Risks,3-Macroeconomic Risk and 4-Emerging Markets Risk.
- It almost seems quaint already to talk about the European "debt crisis" as sharp commenters are moving onto a deeper realization, that the problem in Europe is not about debt, but rather trade, or more specifically trade imbalances.In a post at the NYT Economix blog, Simon Johnson hits the nail on the head here, explaining that when Mexico got bailed out in the mid-90s, its economy was able to rebound via a devaluation fo the peso, leading to more competitive exports, leading to a trade surplus.Important parts of the euro zone, like Portugal, Greece and perhaps Italy, badly need a reduction in their real costs of production. If their currencies were independent, this could be achieved by a depreciation of their market value. But this is not an option within the euro zone, and it is within the zone that they need to become more competitive.These countries could cut nominal wages β a course of action being pursued, for example, in Latvia. But Latvia is a special case for many reasons, including its desire to become much closer with the euro zone, which it aspires to join. It is unlikely that any Western European government making such a proposal would last long.Unable to move the exchange rate and unwilling to cut wages, the Portuguese government is embarked on an innovative course of βfiscal devaluation,β meaning it will cut payroll taxes, to reduce the cost of labor, while increasing the value added tax, or VAT (a tax on consumption), as a way to maintain fiscal revenues.And this inability to devalue isn't just an impediment to a PIIGS recovery. It's fundamental to what caused the crisis in the first place.KashMansouri (via Krugman) recently posted this very useful table showing the big current account deficits racked up by the PIIGS nations from 2000 to 2007. The worst five countries from a current acount perspective were exactly the PIIGS: Portugal, Greece, Spain, Ireland, and Italy.Image: Street Light BlogGiven that a negative current account balance is a negative for growth, it's obvious that these countries had to fill the gap with deficit spending, because in the absence of natural trade adjustments, there was no other way to keep growth up.All of this is a good reminder about the absurdify of German or Finnish anger at the bailouts: For years they've enjoyed big trade surpluses with their neighbors, allowing them to grow without racking up huge debts. Now of course they're furious at the idea of money going in the other direction.Ultimately, any "deal" that just addresses the acute financial crisis without getting at this issue is going to fail pretty soon.Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fundamental-problem-in-the-eurozone-trade-2011-9#ixzz1Zi4oJwoZ