LONGWave 04-04-13 - sub- The MARKET TRAP is Being Set

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  • IT IS ONE THING FOR THE MARKETS TO START EXHIBTING AN INITIAL NEW PATTERN OF LOWER LOWS AND LOWER HIGHS THAT SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND CHANNELIT IS ANOTHER FOR THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE TO CROSS THROUGH AND BELOW THE 200 DAY MOING AVERAGE.WHEN THIS OCCURS IT IS REFERRED TO AS A “DEATH CROSS” AND IS A FAIRLY RELIABLE CONFIRMATION THAT AN INTERMEDIATE DOWNWARD TRENDD IS IN PLACE.MARKETS AND TRADERS REACT BADLY TO SUCH A TECHNICAL SIGNAL.LET’S EXAMINE THE MARKET TO SEE WHAT WE FIND.
  • IT IS ONE THING FOR THE MARKETS TO START EXHIBTING AN INITIAL NEW PATTERN OF LOWER LOWS AND LOWER HIGHS THAT SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND CHANNELIT IS ANOTHER FOR THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE TO CROSS THROUGH AND BELOW THE 200 DAY MOING AVERAGE.WHEN THIS OCCURS IT IS REFERRED TO AS A “DEATH CROSS” AND IS A FAIRLY RELIABLE CONFIRMATION THAT AN INTERMEDIATE DOWNWARD TRENDD IS IN PLACE.MARKETS AND TRADERS REACT BADLY TO SUCH A TECHNICAL SIGNAL.LET’S EXAMINE THE MARKET TO SEE WHAT WE FIND.
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  • Today, lets look at another interesting data point from AAII: Cash allocations reached a 16-month high in March. Individual investors pulled money from both equities and bonds last month.We have shown the flip side of this chart in the past — equity allocation — which is similarly moderate.Equity allocations fell 3.0 percentage points to 59.5% in March. Surprisingly, the past 15 months have not seen much variation in equity allocations stuck in a range from 58.8% (June 2012) to 62.5% (February 2013). The historical average is 60%.March AAII Asset Allocation Survey results:• Stocks Total: 59.5%, down 3.0 percentage points• Bonds Total: 17.7%, down 1.5 percentage points• Cash: 22.8%, up 4.6 percentage pointsHistorical Averages:• Stocks/Stock Funds: 60%• Bonds/Bond Funds: 16%• Cash: 24%
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  • A rather skewed distribution in asset returns Year to Date (through March 31), with the winners so far i) the Nikkei, in both JPY and USD terms, on endless jawboning out of the Japanese political apparatus that it may do virtually anything - although in a few hours we will see just what the BOJ actually will do, the S&P on the $85 billion in monthly liquidity injections, and finally the FTSE on expectations the arrival of yet another Goldman central planner will unleash yet another epic episode of monetization in July, just as the Japan effect is fading. The losers: pretty much everyone else. (BitCoin was not included in the sample).
  • IT IS ONE THING FOR THE MARKETS TO START EXHIBTING AN INITIAL NEW PATTERN OF LOWER LOWS AND LOWER HIGHS THAT SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND CHANNELIT IS ANOTHER FOR THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE TO CROSS THROUGH AND BELOW THE 200 DAY MOING AVERAGE.WHEN THIS OCCURS IT IS REFERRED TO AS A “DEATH CROSS” AND IS A FAIRLY RELIABLE CONFIRMATION THAT AN INTERMEDIATE DOWNWARD TRENDD IS IN PLACE.MARKETS AND TRADERS REACT BADLY TO SUCH A TECHNICAL SIGNAL.LET’S EXAMINE THE MARKET TO SEE WHAT WE FIND.
  • LONGWave 04-04-13 - sub- The MARKET TRAP is Being Set

    1. 1. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    2. 2. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set RISK • CHARTS: Right Shoulder Fibonacci Relationships, • Three Key Divergences, SENTIMENT • Rethinking Contrarian Sentiment, • The “Flawed” Belief that Precedes Market Corrections, ECONOMICS • Key Charts Worth Revisiting, • Increasing EU Concerns, FUNDAMENTALS • Q1 Earnings Pre-Announcements, • PE’s, Earning Forecasts and YTD Returns. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    3. 3. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    4. 4. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    5. 5. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    6. 6. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    7. 7. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    8. 8. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Fear Occurs Quickly Likely Scare Ahead Fully Invested but Getting Nervous Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    9. 9. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Over a Decade of Increasing Bearishness Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    10. 10. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    11. 11. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    12. 12. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    13. 13. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set “Trouble Coming to Paradise” - February 2013 Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    14. 14. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    15. 15. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    16. 16. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    17. 17. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    18. 18. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set This is Simply NOT going to happen! Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    19. 19. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    20. 20. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    21. 21. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    22. 22. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set  Expect a Q2 Market Scare,  We are putting in a MAJOR, Long Term Right Shoulder,  Head & Shoulders or Megaphone -Not Important to Investors -Only Traders and Speculators  Gold Charts may be the best clue of what is ahead, Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    23. 23. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report April 4th, 2013 The MARKET TRAP is Being Set Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
    24. 24. DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWaveThe content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of thisslide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

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