20240429 Calibre April 2024 Investor Presentation.pdf
Global insights audio-slides-11-11-11
1. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
WHO ARE THESE MEN?
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
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2. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
WHO ARE THESE MEN?
ITALY GREECE
MARIO MONTI LUCAS PAPADEMOS
ECONOMIST ECONOMIST
Education: Yale (Keynesian) Education: MIT (Keynesian)
Professor: Turin, Bocconi (25 years) Professor: Columbia, Athens (20 Years)
Distinction: Klein-Monti Model Distinction: BoG Governor (Drachma)
Technocrat: EC Since 1994 Technocrat: ECB Since 2002
Tri-Lateral Commission Tri-Lateral Commission – Since 1998
European Chair
Bilderberger Steering Committee
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
3. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
GREECE’S PAPADEMOS
His first task will be to THE Banker’s Banker in
secure a badly needed €8b Charge of Negotiations?
aid tranche from the EU & Its Official : The fox is in
IMF charge of hen house!
Only an INTERIM until Feb 90 Days (No Referendum -
19th, 2010 Elections the dirty work)
Papademos sought a cabinet New Democracy leader Antonis
that included members of the Samaras fought having
top parties (for demonstrate heavyweights from his party
broad support). associated with the unpopular
cuts as elections loomed.
“Though it remains to be seen “the reported concessions
whether the major parties will appear to give him a strong
fully back Mr. Papademos — starting position”. (Yeh, right -
their eyes are cast to the next its all yours baby as politicians
elections, and have little go to the mattresses!)
“Mr. Papademos sought an interim appetite for tough reform”
tenure free of political interference”
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
4. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
ITLAY’S MONTI
THE Banker’s Banker in
Charge of Negotiations?
Its Official : The fox is in
charge of hen house!
Only an INTERIM until Non-confidence likely as
Elections called –’An soon as dirty work is done.
Emergency Government’
THE SET-UP: THE SPIN (WSJ):
In a highly critical editorial in Il "He doesn't owe anything to any
Corriere, Mr. Monti chastised the political party. He's not there to be a
premier for saying that the euro politician. He's there to do what's
wasn't a convincing currency. necessary" said Gaia Gualtieri, 32,
"Every time [borrowing] rates rise who helps her father run a small
because of scant faith in Italy, you textile manufacturer in Prato. Ms.
impose even more sacrifices upon Gualtieri hopes Mr. Monti will free
Italians." businesses from labor codes that
make it hard to hire and fire.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
5. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
GREECE: FOLLOW THE MONEY
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
6. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
RING FENCING FRANCE
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
7. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
FRENCH MAGINOT LINE
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
8. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
FRENCH MAGINOT LINE
Sarkozy Making Panic Cuts
€ 65B Post G-20 Summit
€ 47B Post EU Summit (Aug)
======
€ 112B
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
9. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
FRENCH MAGINOT LINE
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
10. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
WE ARE A LONG WAY FROM THIS BEING OVER!
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The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
11. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
BANK RUNS
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
12. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 11th, 2011
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE
THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE
INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and
any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and
investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary
is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine
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Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
Editor's Notes
As you recall when Christina Lagarde was appointed I always research who these people are - not the carefully crafted images presented to the media- for what ever reason and by whoever – but the reality.MARIO MONTI He is European Chairman of the Trilateral Commission, a think tank founded in 1973 by David Rockefeller[3] and is also importantly a member of the Bilderberg GroupHe completed graduate studies at Yale University, where he studied under James Tobin, the Nobel prize-winning economist => Proven KeynesianHis research has helped to create the Klein-Monti model, aimed at describing the behaviour of banks operating under monopoly circumstances.In 2010, Monti produced a Report on the future of the Single Market proposing further measures towards the completion of the EU single marketOn 15 September 2010 Monti supported the new initiative Spinelli Group, which was founded to reinvigorate the strive for Federalisation of the European Union (EU). A BANKER WITHIN THE INNER CIRCLE – A BUREAUCRAT – Never elected, always “appointed” by the powers to be.LUCAS PAPADEMOS Member of the Tri-Lateral Commission Taught at Columbia and Athens for close to 20 years Bank of Greece in 1985 and rose to Governor in 2002. During his time as Governor of the national bank, Papadimos was involved in Greece's transition from the drachma to the euro as its national currency. Moved to ECB in 2002 as VP under Jean-Claude Trichet.A BANKER WITHIN THE INNER CIRCLE – A BUREAUCRAT – Never elected, always “appointed” by the powers to be.MY VIEWS ON ACADEMICS : Needy for Recognition more than anything – Collectors of Gold Stars (not money -> Titles mixed with altruism = They can be manipulated by those who can flatter and have more sinister motivations and
A SHAM – PUBLIC MONEY PUMPING Greece is about to get another installment of 8b Euro which has been coming more or less on a quarterly installment basis. Greece is running a primary deficit of approximately 6b Euro. So that is 1.5 billion per quarter. So about 19 cents of every Euro of bailout money makes it way to fund Greece's current overspending.Greek banks hold about 75 billion of debt and other Greek entities hold about 25 billion, bringing the total to 100 billion. Assuming about 350 billion in total debt that means about 23 cents go to Greek entities as debt service. That number is a bit misleading, as much of this has been pledged to the ECB for funding, so although it supports the Greek banks, it also goes to the ECB. The ECB holds 55 billion of Greek bonds directly. So 18 cents of every Euro of the bailout goes to the ECB. The "market" and "bilateral loans" total about 175 billion from what we could find. This is a bit lower than the 205 billion the IIF is talking about, but seems in the right ballpark. So about 40 cents of every Euro of the bailout is used to service debt held by non Greek banks and financial institutions.We didn't look at the specific maturities, and just used averages. To the extent Greek pension funds for example, hold longer dated maturities, less of the money is really going to them, but for now lets assume that each group holds a similarly balanced portfolio. We also haven't figured out about the 90 billion of derivative exposures Greece has and whether any bailout money is being used to pay on those. In the end less than 19 cents of the bailout are going to allow Greece to continue its overspending. About 23 cents goes to Greek institutions, though at this point, all of that is held by the ECB, so it is not fully benefiting Greece.18 cents are going to the ECB directly and 40 cents are going to banks and insurance companies outside of Greece. So at least 58 cents of every bailout Euro is going outside of Greece, and depending on how you treat the repo agreements, that number could easily be 70 cents.THE PATIENT IS DEAD!!!!! IT IS THE HOST THE PARAPSITES ARE LIVING OFF!!!
It is hard to see how the resignation of Silvio Berlusconi makes any difference. He has run one of Italy's most stable post-war governments. Elections are likely to throw up a splintered political mix, with gains for the Left but no one bloc able to put together a strong coalition. The nation remains bitterly divided on redundancy law and "firm-level" wage bargaining. The trade unions remain militant.
GREEK BANK RUNAccording to just released data by the Bank of Greece, the September collapse in gross deposits from €188.7 billion to €183.2 billion was the largest ever, and took the total to an amount last seen in June 2007. Indicatively Greek deposits peaked at €237.8 billion in September 2009. Said otherwise, in addition to being massively undercapitalized, banks cash in the form of deposit liabilities has plunged 23% from its all time highs. Look for this number to continue dropping month after month as more and more Greeks move their cash offshore. Additionally, the ECB announced that financing to Greek banks in September was €77.8 billion while Greek reliance on the "temporary" Emergency Liquidity Assistance program hit €26.6 billion according to Bloomberg. With every additional deposit outflow, expect ever more money to be needed to keep the Greek sham of a banking system afloat, and more and more Germans getting very, very angry.A SHAM – PUBLIC MONEY PUMPING Greece is about to get another installment of 8b Euro which has been coming more or less on a quarterly installment basis. Greece is running a primary deficit of approximately 6b Euro. So that is 1.5 billion per quarter. So about 19 cents of every Euro of bailout money makes it way to fund Greece's current overspending.Greek banks hold about 75 billion of debt and other Greek entities hold about 25 billion, bringing the total to 100 billion. Assuming about 350 billion in total debt that means about 23 cents go to Greek entities as debt service. That number is a bit misleading, as much of this has been pledged to the ECB for funding, so although it supports the Greek banks, it also goes to the ECB. The ECB holds 55 billion of Greek bonds directly. So 18 cents of every Euro of the bailout goes to the ECB. The "market" and "bilateral loans" total about 175 billion from what we could find. This is a bit lower than the 205 billion the IIF is talking about, but seems in the right ballpark. So about 40 cents of every Euro of the bailout is used to service debt held by non Greek banks and financial institutions.We didn't look at the specific maturities, and just used averages. To the extent Greek pension funds for example, hold longer dated maturities, less of the money is really going to them, but for now lets assume that each group holds a similarly balanced portfolio. We also haven't figured out about the 90 billion of derivative exposures Greece has and whether any bailout money is being used to pay on those. In the end less than 19 cents of the bailout are going to allow Greece to continue its overspending. About 23 cents goes to Greek institutions, though at this point, all of that is held by the ECB, so it is not fully benefiting Greece.18 cents are going to the ECB directly and 40 cents are going to banks and insurance companies outside of Greece. So at least 58 cents of every bailout Euro is going outside of Greece, and depending on how you treat the repo agreements, that number could easily be 70 cents.THE PATIENT IS DEAD!!!!! IT IS THE HOST THE PARAPSITES ARE LIVING OFF!!!
GREEK BANK RUNAccording to just released data by the Bank of Greece, the September collapse in gross deposits from €188.7 billion to €183.2 billion was the largest ever, and took the total to an amount last seen in June 2007. Indicatively Greek deposits peaked at €237.8 billion in September 2009. Said otherwise, in addition to being massively undercapitalized, banks cash in the form of deposit liabilities has plunged 23% from its all time highs. Look for this number to continue dropping month after month as more and more Greeks move their cash offshore. Additionally, the ECB announced that financing to Greek banks in September was €77.8 billion while Greek reliance on the "temporary" Emergency Liquidity Assistance program hit €26.6 billion according to Bloomberg. With every additional deposit outflow, expect ever more money to be needed to keep the Greek sham of a banking system afloat, and more and more Germans getting very, very angry.
