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Global insights audio-slides-11-14-11
1. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 14th, 2011
CONTAGION BROADENING
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
2. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 14th, 2011
WHO ARE THESE MEN?
“Neither Tremonti nor Monti!”
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
3. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 14th, 2011
SPAIN
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
4. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 14th, 2011
SPAIN
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
5. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 14th, 2011
AUSTRIA => CEE =>
HUNGARY – SLOVENIA
UNFUNDABLE YIELDS
HUNGARIAN 10 YEAR = 8.33%
SLOVENIA 10 YEAR = 7.14%
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
6. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 14th, 2011
EFSF FAILING FAST
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
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7. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 14th, 2011
ITALY
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
8. This chart accompanies the podcast recorded
November 14th, 2011
CONTAGION BROADENING
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Listen to the original podcast for this slide at either www.GordonTLong.com/GlobalInsights or www.TraderView.com/GlobalInsights
Editor's Notes
What's the deal with Austria? Well there have been persistent rumors about a downgrade, but furthermore, Austrian banks are famously exposed to Eastern Europe. And now you see stuff about how Slovenian yields are surging.Too many fires to put out.For a good background story on Austrian banks and exposure to Eastern Europe, see this NYT piece from last year.Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/oh-crap-austria-2011-11#ixzz1dgL8xHUlSlovenian Bond Yield Breaks 7%, First Time Since Euro Entryhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-11/slovenian-bond-yield-breaks-7-first-time-since-euro-entry.htmlCDS= 395Slovenian bond yields started to advance since voters rejected pension changes in a June referendum. The spread versus German debt at the time was 147 basis pointsSlovenia, which holds early elections next month, was cut by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings on the government’s collapse, the poor economic outlook and a weak banking industry. The former Yugoslav republic is also a victim of its “proximity” to Italy, which is struggling to fend off an investor crisis of confidence.“The worry is that turmoil in Italy will last for some time, pushing Slovenian bond yields even higher,”
The Telegraph reports Eurozone bail-out fund has to resort to buying its own debtThe European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) last week announced it had successfully sold a €3bn 10-year bond in support of Ireland.However, The Sunday Telegraph can reveal that target was only met after the EFSF resorted to buying up several hundred million euros worth of the bonds.Sources said the EFSF had spent more than € 100m buying up its own bonds to help it achieve its funding target after the banks leading the deal were only able to find about €2.7bn of outside demand for the debt.The failure of the EFSF will increase pressure on the European Central Bank to effectively become the lender of last resort for the eurozone, a move it has strongly resisted. Bizarre SetupThe EFSF raises money by selling bonds that few investors want. So it buys its own debt effectively raising no cash. Is this supposed to work?Given there are:still no terms on the EFSF debt, agreements on leverage, amount of guarantees, etc., the amazing thing is not that the EFSF had to buy some of its debt, but rather anyone else was interested at all.This helps explain why the IMF went on a tour of Russia and China begging them to buy the garbage. No one else wants it, and the EFSF suspected as much in advance.
