Steve Moore's talk to the CAE in Minneapolis, February 2018

1. Trumponomics

2. Reaganomics vs. Obamanomics
Growth Gap – $3.1 Trillion vs. Reagan and $1.8 Trillion vs. Average

4. The Greatest Story Never Told

5. America’s Oil Boom
Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Feb-07
May-07
Aug-07
Nov-07
Feb-08
May-08
Aug-08
Nov-08
Feb-09
May-09
Aug-09
Nov-09
Feb-10
May-10
Aug-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-11
Aug-11
Nov-11
Feb-12
May-12
Aug-12
Nov-12
Feb-13
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Feb-15
May-15
Aug-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
Aug-16
Nov-16
Growth in Oil & Gas Employment Outpaces the Rest of the
Economy
Oil and Gas
Total Nonfarm

6. The Falling Cost of Energy
Source: Energy Information Administration
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120 Jan-2013
Mar-2013
May-2013
Jul-2013
Sep-2013
Nov-2013
Jan-2014
Mar-2014
May-2014
Jul-2014
Sep-2014
Nov-2014
Jan-2015
Mar-2015
May-2015
Jul-2015
Sep-2015
Nov-2015
Jan-2016
Mar-2016
May-2016
Jul-2016
Sep-2016
Nov-2016
Jan-2017
Mar-2017
May-2017
Jul-2017
Sep-2017
Nov-2017

7. America’s Soaring Gas and Oil Output
Source: Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review
The growth in oil & gas production in the eight years exceeds by nearly two fold the total current
production of energy from all renewable resources (excluding hydro dams). Most recent annual
data through 2015.
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Billionsofbarrelsofoilequivalent
Growth in Production Since
2006
Oil & Gas
Renewables other than
hydro
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Billionsofbarrelsofoilequivalent
Total Production Since 2000
Oil & Gas
Renewables other than

8. 0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
MicrogramsperCubicMeterofAir
PartsperMillion(Index:1980=1) National Ambient Air Quality Ozone
Sulfur Dioxide
Carbon Monoxide
Nitrogen Dioxide
Lead (Right Axis)
Source:
epa.gov

9. Don’t Forget to Turn the Lights On

10. Red States vs Blue States
1,475,425
779,441
-1,381,449
-1,103,301
(2,000,000)
(1,500,000)
(1,000,000)
(500,000)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Texas Florida New York California
Absolute Domestic Migration 2006 - 2015
Source: Rich States Poor States, Tenth Edition, American Legislative Exchange Council

11. During and After Recession
Texas - 1.1 Million Jobs Created
Rest of the U.S. - 350 Thousand Jobs Lost

12. State Economic Outlook Ranking
Rank Top Ten States Ran
k
Bottom Ten States
1. Utah 41. Oregon
2. Indiana 42. Maine
3. North Carolina 43. Hawaii
4. North Dakota 44. Illinois
5. Tennessee 45. Minnesota
6. Florida 46. Connecticut
7. Wyoming 47. California
8. Arizona 48. New Jersey
9 Texas 49. Vermont
10. Idaho 50. New York
Source: ALEC, Rich States Poor States, 2017

13. Low Rates = More Revenue
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Top1%IncomeTaxShare
TopMarginalIncomeTaxRate
Top Marginal Rate
Top 1% Income Tax Share
Source: TaxFoundation.org

15. 2018 U.S. Corporate Tax Rate Compared with the OECD Average
20
25
30
35
40
45
COMBINEDCENTRALANDSUBCENTRAL
GOVERNMENTCORPORATETAXRATE
New U.S. Federal and State Corporate Tax Rate
Old U.S. Federal and State Corporate Tax Rate
Note: The bars are the average tax rate in the rest of the world.
Source: OECD Tax Policy Analysis

16. Old and New Corporate Rates
40.10%
26.10%
24.20%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
OLD U.S. Rates NEW U.S. Rates OECD Average
Rates
Average Federal and State Corporate Rates

17. 43.4%
23.8%
23.8%
40%
35%
15%
15%
35%
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00%
Income tax rate
Capital Gains
Dividends
Death Tax
Tax Hikes Under Obama
Old Rate Obama Rate
Taxmageddon

18. 21%
29.60%
37.00%
35%
39.60%
39.60%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Corporate Tax
Small Business Tax
Top Income Bracket
Obama Era TCJA
Old Tax Rates vs Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Source: Tax Foundation

19. Source: Internal Revenue Service, Statistics on Income Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Top 1 Percent Contributes As Much As Bottom 95 Percent
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
PercentageofTotal
Bottom 95% Share Top 1% Share

20. Rich Pay More Than Their Fair Share
2014 Income and Income Tax Shares
20.6%
39.5%
11.3%
2.8%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
Income Share Income Tax Share
Top 1% Bottom 50%
Tax Foundation: Summary of the Latest
Federal Income Tax Data, 2016 Update

21. Growth in Manufacturing, Mining, Construction Since Election
12200
12250
12300
12350
12400
12450
12500
12550
12600
Manufacturing
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
Mining
6300
6400
6500
6600
6700
6800
6900
7000
7100
Construction
Source: Bureau of
Labor Statistics

22. 4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan'15
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'16
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'17
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
PercentageWorkforce
6.8% -
Record
Low
Source: Bureau of
Labor Statistics
Black Unemployment Rate

23. 60
60.5
61
61.5
62
62.5
63
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
PercentofPopulation
Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Black Labor Participation Rate

24. 4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
PopulationPercentage
Record
Lows
Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics
Latino Unemployment Rate

25. Consumer Confidence Index
85.0
87.0
89.0
91.0
93.0
95.0
97.0
99.0
101.0
103.0
105.0
ConfidenceValue
Source: University
at Michigan

26. Small Business Optimism
85
90
95
100
105
110
IndexValue(1986=100)
Post Election
Effect
Source: NFIB

27. 15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
Price Dow Jones Monthly Price Averages

28. 3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
Price
Source: Wall Street
Journal
NASDAQ Monthly Price Averages

29. S&P 500 Monthly Price Averages
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
Price
Source: Wall Street
Journal

30. Inflation Rate 1947 -2017

31. 10 -Year Treasury Note Yield
February 1962 to January 2018

32. Real Interest Rate on 10-year U.S Bonds
January 2003 to December 2017

33. Education and Medical Prices Increase
While Import Prices Drop
*Data from 2005
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
123%
81%
67%
42% 41%
-3% -3% -4% -45% -58%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Inflation by Sector Nov 2000 to Nov 2017

34. Worker Well-Being
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Index, 1980=100
Per Capita Income
Total Compensation
Wages and Salary
Based on data from the Census Bureau
and the Department of Labor.

35. Number of Years It Took for Major Technologies
to Reach 50% of American Homes

36. High Technology

37. $42,463
$21,720
$9,416
$6,036
80.7
75.4
69.6
64.4
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Most Free Second Third Least Free
LifeExpectancyatBirth,2015
GDPperCapita,PPP,2015
(Constant2011US$)
Life Expectancy
Source: Cato Institute and Fraser Institute, Economic Freedom of the World, 2017.
Economic Freedom
Free Countries are Wealthier and Healthier