Past and future of alcohol fuels

1. ISAF
Back to the Future
40 years past, 40 years future

2. By Martin St. Amant
A brief history of ISAF: 1976-2016
15 countries, 5 continents, 40 years

5. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
• Edited by Roy Sage* (Canada), 1986, and based on
IOC members’ first 10-yr experience. Also
production and end-use technologies
• Driving forces for the utilization of
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

6. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
Production technology:
• Ethanol from cellulosic feed-stocks
• Ethanol from methane or natural gas

7. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

8. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
End-use technology:
• Development of “fuel tolerant” vehicles, known today
as “flex-fuel” vehicles
• Approaches to alcohol fuels in compression ignition
two-stroke diesel engines:

9. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
• Obscure future for alcohol fuels: prevalent
1986 low oil prices, cheap oil for years to
come!

10. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
• Oil prices could rise rapidly towards the end of
the XX century: decreasing output from
Alaskan North Slope, North Sea.
•

11. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
• Alcohol fuels to be used where they have
achieved a foothold, in the USA and Brazil
and penetrate the octane market elsewhere
• Same alcohol fuel driving forces will continue
to operate, namely security of oil supply;
broad economic benefits and environmental
benefits

12. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
• Instability in the Middle East will prompt
OECD to seek energy source diversification
• In the USA methanol from coal would be a
strong contender

13. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)

14. Ten years past, ten years future, 1976-1996
*Sage, Roy (1986). Alcohol Fuels – ten years past, ten years future. Ottawa, October, 20p. (English), 21p. (French)
• Strategic, economic and environmental costs not
factored in free market approaches
• Introduction of alcohol fuels in most markets
requires political will and decision

17. BP Statistical Review of World Energy
2015
© BP p.l.c. 2015
Biofuels production by region
Million tonnes oil equivalent
World biofuels production
In 2014:
Global ethanol production increased
by 6.0%
Biodiesel production increased by
10.3%

18. 40 years future

19. 40 years future