This document provides an overview of trends, drivers, and valuation metrics in the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) industry. It discusses how cloud computing, mobile technology, and social networks are converging and transforming the industry. Valuation of TMT companies has changed from using traditional discounted cash flow models to utilizing multiples of metrics like revenues, EBITDA, and free cash flows. The document analyzes sectors like media, communications chips, and storage and discusses company valuations and growth opportunities in these areas driven by developments in cloud, mobile, and social media.
3. TMT trends
Convergence trends are accelerating in the TMT
industries. Several factors are driving the convergence of
the TMT industry, most notably digitization, connectivity,
and innovation. TMT convergence is occurring at three
levels: 1) product and services to meet real customer
needs, 2) platform convergence involves consolidation
around a small number of standards (e.g. the IP as a
universal standard for digital communication), 3)
organizational convergence involves different companies’
people and IT systems working together to deliver a
convergent product or service. The opposite reaction is
intensifying risk as TMT companies increasingly foray
into untested markets, uncertain alliances, and unfamiliar
products. As identified by Deloitte in a recent report, “the
net effect of convergence is that TMT companies are
becoming more and more intertwined in a tangle of
content, technology development, and distribution
partnerships”. As these business models converge, TMT
companies increasingly share responsibility for managing
performance and risk, such as complex business models
and intellectual property management, operating outside
core competencies and risk of cascade failure, regulatory
risk, retention of talent, vulnerability of digital products
and services and digital rights management. (Deloitte
2008)
The report also highlights that “increased confidence and
activity by the large trade players in the global technology
market will change the deal dynamics with several factors
aligning to create a window of opportunity for increased
M&A activity in 2011, such as more high quality assets
being brought to the market as sellers seek to take
advantage of the presence of cash-rich corporates with a
renewed appetite for mega deals, while aggressive private
equity buyers are returning, and improving capital
markets provide a supportive influence”. (Deloitte 2011)
The average value of deals per month (for the three
months ended May 31) reached almost $60 billion, with a
peak of 620 deals in the month of May.
Global TMT M&A activity. Source: Bloomberg.
The value of deals was boosted by the $8.5 billion
acquisition of internet phone services Skype by Microsoft.
Social media has also been in the spotlight in May, with
the acquisition of London-based Tweetdeck by Twitter
for £40 million. (M&A Deals 2011)
The high levels of M&A activity in the sector indicate
that it is on the up, and most companies have sound
financial basis, and big cash balances: the result is that
these companies are now seeing opportunities for new
ideas and concepts coming out from exciting new
ventures. The increased M&A activity has been
accompanied by a rise in PE and Price/Sales ratios.
According to Deloitte, technology stocks outperformed
the FTSE 100 and NASDAQ Composite indices on the
public markets in 2010: FinTech companies rose by 24%,
while Cloud companies saw a rise of 20%, and SaaS
(Software-as-a-Service) companies were the stock market
stars in 2010 delivering a rise of 78%. (Deloitte 2011)
In addition, both the Nasdaq-100 Tech Index and the
MSCI USA/Tech Index outperformed the S&P500 Index
by, respectively, 22.94% and 14.02% in the last three
years period.