The document summarizes an industry analysis of the fraud detection software developer industry conducted by the Finance & Investment Club. It defines the industry, provides an overview of market trends such as strong correlation between industry growth and e-commerce sales growth, and risks facing the industry from government spending changes and software-related issues. The club recommends a strong buy for the industry due to its strong growth prospects and insulation from negative effects of EMV credit card chips.
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3. 3
Industry Definition
Businesses that develop software to detect fraudulent payments made to clients. The software
also protects against fraudulent payments.
Support the detection, analytics and management of fraud across
users, accounts, products, processes and channels
Monitor and analyze user activity and behavior at the
application level
Watch what transpires inside and across accounts
Analyze behavior among related users, accounts or other entities
5. 5
Industry Overview
Life Cycle Stage:
Growth
A growth of 30.5% for the past 8
years is a good sign of the future.
Regulation Level:
Light
Government struggles to keep up
with the rapidly changing
industry.
Industry Globalization:
Medium
China and India are becoming
bigger players.
Revenue Volatility:
Medium
Uncertainties surrounding
contracts and pricing pose risks
to revenue.
Technology Change:
High
The continuing competition
between fraudster and firm drives
innovation.
Competition Level:
High
With an extreme ease of entry,
companies of any size can
compete for market share.
7. 7
Market Segmentation
The financial sector represents the
largest market segment
– Includes commercial banks, retail
banks, and brokerage firms
Public sector is another large
contributor to market revenue
– Ranges from national security to
welfare
Information sector accounts for the
third largest segment of revenue
– Continued growth as more and more
companies move data into digital
forms
Insurance and Healthcare sector
widely uses fraud detection
software to detect fraudulent claims
10. 10
Total E-Commerce Sales Growth
As electronic payment transaction
volumes increase with consumers
increasingly using the internet for a
diverse range of services, such as
online shopping, online trading and
online banking, the risk of theft and
fraud over the internet rises.
Percentage of services conducted
online is expected to increase for
the foreseeable future, creating
opportunity for the industry.
Extremely strong correlation between
E-Commerce volume and industry
growth in recent history
– R2 of .97904
The fraud detection industry will continue to grow as the amount of E-Commerce traffic volume increases.
2006 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
y = 1.008x - 147.89
R² = 0.979
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
IndustryRevenue(Millions)
E-Commerce Volume (Billions)
Industry Growth vs. E-Commerce Volume
Years Percent Growth
2006 - 2007 26%
2007 - 2008 10%
2008 - 2009 32%
2009 - 2010 10%
2010 - 2011 26%
2011 - 2012 19%
2012 - 2013 10%
CAGR: 19.06%*
*Since 2006
Source: Ibisworld
12. 12
Crime Rate
In addition to rising concerns of international terrorism and money laundering, occupational fraudsters have
become more sophisticated.
Several major US retailers have experienced data breaches, threatening and simultaneously stimulating
industry revenue.
As the number and intensity of these crimes increase in 2014, financial institutions, retailers and electronic
payment processors will seek ways to leverage new technologies to protect customers by preventing
fraudulent transactions.
Qualitative analysis show that as crime, be it digital or physical, increases so too will the amount of fraud.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
CreditCardFraud$bn
Credit Card Fraud $bn
*forecasted using averaged past 4 years CAGR*Source: Ibisworld
14. 14
Chip Inclusion in Debit and Credit Cards
The new credit and debit smartcards
use an encrypted chip rather than a
magnetic stripe, reducing electronic
payment fraud.
U.S. fraud rate expected to follow
Canada’s dramatic decrease.
Industry will need to rely on a
continuing growth from other areas of
fraud within the U.S. and Canada
“In every country that has switched to
EMV cards, online fraud has jumped.”
–Aite Group
UK saw a 79% increase in online
fraud once chips were introduced.
As credit and debit cards increasingly use computer chips the amount of fraud will be decreased hurting revenue.
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Canada's Decrease in Retail
Fraud Since Chips
Debit and Credit Card
Fraud Losses
Expon. (Debit and Credit
Card Fraud Losses)
Source: Yahoo Finance
18. 18
Risks
Suffer from dependency on on a small number of customers for a significant amount of profit
A decrease in government spending poses as threat as the public sector accounts for 20% of industry profit
Unsuccessful mergers and acquisitions will result in growing companies falling behind
Losing the right to third-party software that is an integral part of the fraud detection software being developed
If software has a base code that has been open sourced they may have to make the resulting software
open sourced and free
The industry suffers from many software-based risks that will need to be navigated carefully.