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Productivity Evolution and Harnessing Every Dollar
1
Brandon Wetzstein
Lead Business Partner- Order Pickup Planning and
Implementation
~20Years in Retail
Target
Best Buy
Audio King
Improviser
Beginning blacksmith?
Linkedin.com/brandonwetzstein
Twitter @curiousbrando
 1950’s – Post WWII – increased specialization and DIY- Home Improvement centers-
auto parts and tire stores- expansion and growth of the supermarket- Notably the TV
Dinner
 1960’s – Apparel rebellion (think tie-dye), Big Box hit’s the scene, Discounting becomes
a thing.
 1970’s-Office Retailers, Restaurant growth, Discounting theme continues, discount clubs
 1980’s- Rise in fashion and designer styles, Brand names, more office services and
discount clubs. Home shopping network (new channel) – computer use start to lend
efficiencies- Hardware growth, Decade of the chicken wing, fast casual born, premium
grocery
 1990’s- Internet retailers, comfortable casual, prescription filling computer system,
Growing fast casual and gourmet coffee, grocery mergers and superstore
 2000’s- Fashion all over the place (crocs), tech disruption, organic healthy and on te go.
Grocery merges
 Today:Tech everywhere, omni-channel flexibility, personalization, Save time,
recommendation engines.
2From Chain Store Guide's "Through the Ages” series.
 Basic measurement- very similar to ROI
 In retail, expressed in sales dollar per labor hour (or employee in a sales role)
 Ideally, should increase over time
 Store labor is largest component of SG&A Expense (For Big Box Retail)
 To oversimplify- Footsteps and Touches (Maximize here!)
3
 3 Steps
 1.5 Seconds each
way
 5 pots/day
 $8/hr
 $12.17/yr
 7-Eleven
 8273 stores
 Coffee Filter
Fetching Cost =
$100,654
4
 Assortment Complexity (Specialization & Localization)
 Shortened product lifecycle (technology, seasonal, trend)
 Product touches
 Footsteps
 Wage Rate (increases over next 5 yrs)
 Inventory & Supply Chain
 Accuracy
 Availability
 Turn
 Fulfillment
 Cube (holding)
5
 Increased selection
 Localized product
 Immense variety
 Decreased product lifecycle time
 Technology
 Increased trends in non traditional trend areas
 Sriracha Ketchup?
 Cannibalization of the core
 More products = more facings = more touches
 Increased inventory risk
6
7
8
 Omni-channel fulfillment
 Inventory accuracy is key- but challenging
 Stores as fulfillment centers
 Shipping from stores
 Shop online- pick up in store
 Buy online- ship to store (expanded assortment)
 Hard to find items (clothing – jorts)
9
 Expected spikes in
minimum wage rate
over the next 5-10
years
 Some Retailers have
already expanded
wages
10
11
19.1%
18.9%
19.2% 19.2%
20.1%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
20.5%
21.0%
21.5%
22.0%
22.5%
23.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Walmart
Rev SG&A Percent
20.1%
20.3%
20.2%
19.8%
19.5%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
20.5%
21.0%
21.5%
22.0%
22.5%
23.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
TGT
Rev SG&A Percent
20.2%
21.1%
19.7%
18.8%
19.3%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
20.5%
21.0%
21.5%
22.0%
22.5%
23.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
BBY
Rev SG&A Percent
22.7%
22.1%
21.1%
20.2%
18.8%
18.0%
18.5%
19.0%
19.5%
20.0%
20.5%
21.0%
21.5%
22.0%
22.5%
23.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Home Depot
Rev SG&A Percent
Source: Marketwatch.com
12
 Technology- RFID, ESL, Self Checkout
 Localized predictive analytics (Machine learning)
 Precise allocation of resources based on Return on Labor (ROL)
 Knowledge sharing and interdepartmental cooperation
13
 RFID- Inventory Accuracy, Location accuracy
 ESL- quick price change ability (dynamic, accurate pricing)
 Self Checkout
14
 Combine location with historical sales and
promotional info
 Dive into location events, news, weather (open data)
 Football games
 Political rally’s
 Delegate/plan labor appropriately-
 Plan smart localized promotions
 Machine learning to truly understand variable impact
 Combine with qualitative EXPERTISE!
 Crowdsourced employee info?
15
 Not quite productivity- but valuation on ROI by labor dept
 Minimum bases that need to be covered-
 Cashier,
 Customer Service
 Putting product away,
 Open and close the doors
 After base levels are met, determine best ROI per labor dollar spent by store
 Assortment changes
 Promotion management
 Clearance price management
 Example: $100 of labor to spend in a day-
 $60 is table stakes, where does the remaining $40 go?
 The same place as last year?
 Divided by department?
 OR does it go to the best possible resource available?
 In December, service in electronics yields the best return
 In June, It should be applied to assortment change
 In February, it should be applied to additional clearance markdowns
16
 Connecting usually unrelated departments to find internal synergies
Marketing and operations?
Call center and product development?
Synergies exist, they just need to be found.
Example?
Cartwheel
17
18

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Tighten Up Your Back End: Productivity Evolution in Retail and Harnessing Every Dollar

  • 1. Productivity Evolution and Harnessing Every Dollar 1 Brandon Wetzstein Lead Business Partner- Order Pickup Planning and Implementation ~20Years in Retail Target Best Buy Audio King Improviser Beginning blacksmith? Linkedin.com/brandonwetzstein Twitter @curiousbrando
  • 2.  1950’s – Post WWII – increased specialization and DIY- Home Improvement centers- auto parts and tire stores- expansion and growth of the supermarket- Notably the TV Dinner  1960’s – Apparel rebellion (think tie-dye), Big Box hit’s the scene, Discounting becomes a thing.  1970’s-Office Retailers, Restaurant growth, Discounting theme continues, discount clubs  1980’s- Rise in fashion and designer styles, Brand names, more office services and discount clubs. Home shopping network (new channel) – computer use start to lend efficiencies- Hardware growth, Decade of the chicken wing, fast casual born, premium grocery  1990’s- Internet retailers, comfortable casual, prescription filling computer system, Growing fast casual and gourmet coffee, grocery mergers and superstore  2000’s- Fashion all over the place (crocs), tech disruption, organic healthy and on te go. Grocery merges  Today:Tech everywhere, omni-channel flexibility, personalization, Save time, recommendation engines. 2From Chain Store Guide's "Through the Ages” series.
  • 3.  Basic measurement- very similar to ROI  In retail, expressed in sales dollar per labor hour (or employee in a sales role)  Ideally, should increase over time  Store labor is largest component of SG&A Expense (For Big Box Retail)  To oversimplify- Footsteps and Touches (Maximize here!) 3
  • 4.  3 Steps  1.5 Seconds each way  5 pots/day  $8/hr  $12.17/yr  7-Eleven  8273 stores  Coffee Filter Fetching Cost = $100,654 4
  • 5.  Assortment Complexity (Specialization & Localization)  Shortened product lifecycle (technology, seasonal, trend)  Product touches  Footsteps  Wage Rate (increases over next 5 yrs)  Inventory & Supply Chain  Accuracy  Availability  Turn  Fulfillment  Cube (holding) 5
  • 6.  Increased selection  Localized product  Immense variety  Decreased product lifecycle time  Technology  Increased trends in non traditional trend areas  Sriracha Ketchup?  Cannibalization of the core  More products = more facings = more touches  Increased inventory risk 6
  • 7. 7
  • 8. 8
  • 9.  Omni-channel fulfillment  Inventory accuracy is key- but challenging  Stores as fulfillment centers  Shipping from stores  Shop online- pick up in store  Buy online- ship to store (expanded assortment)  Hard to find items (clothing – jorts) 9
  • 10.  Expected spikes in minimum wage rate over the next 5-10 years  Some Retailers have already expanded wages 10
  • 11. 11 19.1% 18.9% 19.2% 19.2% 20.1% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0% 20.5% 21.0% 21.5% 22.0% 22.5% 23.0% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Walmart Rev SG&A Percent 20.1% 20.3% 20.2% 19.8% 19.5% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0% 20.5% 21.0% 21.5% 22.0% 22.5% 23.0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TGT Rev SG&A Percent 20.2% 21.1% 19.7% 18.8% 19.3% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0% 20.5% 21.0% 21.5% 22.0% 22.5% 23.0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 BBY Rev SG&A Percent 22.7% 22.1% 21.1% 20.2% 18.8% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0% 20.5% 21.0% 21.5% 22.0% 22.5% 23.0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Home Depot Rev SG&A Percent Source: Marketwatch.com
  • 12. 12
  • 13.  Technology- RFID, ESL, Self Checkout  Localized predictive analytics (Machine learning)  Precise allocation of resources based on Return on Labor (ROL)  Knowledge sharing and interdepartmental cooperation 13
  • 14.  RFID- Inventory Accuracy, Location accuracy  ESL- quick price change ability (dynamic, accurate pricing)  Self Checkout 14
  • 15.  Combine location with historical sales and promotional info  Dive into location events, news, weather (open data)  Football games  Political rally’s  Delegate/plan labor appropriately-  Plan smart localized promotions  Machine learning to truly understand variable impact  Combine with qualitative EXPERTISE!  Crowdsourced employee info? 15
  • 16.  Not quite productivity- but valuation on ROI by labor dept  Minimum bases that need to be covered-  Cashier,  Customer Service  Putting product away,  Open and close the doors  After base levels are met, determine best ROI per labor dollar spent by store  Assortment changes  Promotion management  Clearance price management  Example: $100 of labor to spend in a day-  $60 is table stakes, where does the remaining $40 go?  The same place as last year?  Divided by department?  OR does it go to the best possible resource available?  In December, service in electronics yields the best return  In June, It should be applied to assortment change  In February, it should be applied to additional clearance markdowns 16
  • 17.  Connecting usually unrelated departments to find internal synergies Marketing and operations? Call center and product development? Synergies exist, they just need to be found. Example? Cartwheel 17
  • 18. 18

Editor's Notes

  1. Over the years, we’ve seen amazing advances in the retail industry. We see these benefits firsthand, whether it be localized product at reasonable prices, or fast expedient delivery to meet our convenience needs. Let’s examine the operational affects of these advances and some of the challenges retail stores face in the current environment. This is a very opportune time for productivity enhancements at the retail store level. I’ll cover a few major technology solutions that will proliferate over the coming years, and discuss how some of the mass amounts of data collected can be used to steer the productivity numbers and intelligent decisions in the right direction.
  2. Operational impact before the 90’s was mainly centered around managing the complexity of increased selection in offerings and focused specialization. With technology enhancements, this has sped up exponentially and added in channel complexities as well.
  3. Productivity- a measure of input vs. output. In retail it’s usually a sales $/ labor hour, but could be represented in many other ways. In a sales role, it would commonly be sales dollars/employee. Ideally, this number increases over time. There are many variables that can feed this number, but it is a good measure, at least directionally, on if you’re headed in the right direction. Payroll cost is HUGE!! We’ll take a look at some big companies and what the size of the prize is in this area later on. To oversimplify, think of productivity as footsteps and touches. This is way too oversimplified to capture the complexities, but if you can reduce these two things in the long run, you will save big $$$
  4. Let’s take a look at something very familiar, a gas station coffee center. Lets assume that the filters are in that bottom cupboard, the greenish one to the bottom right. Let’s also assume that there is a cabinet directly below that could hold the filters. Three steps each way can add up quickly in a large organization. Imagine how that impacts 50,000 square foot store. The dollar amount is only valuable if you can repurpose it into something more useful. Think about this in your personal life--When you cook, you have some go-to utensils, and you keep them closer to the cooking area than the other ones. I keep my food processor on the counter so I can easily use it. Store design and layout can play a huge role in efficiency.
  5. We now have a good understanding of productivity, (footsteps and touches). Here are some operational pressures that the current retail store is feeling.
  6. Increased selection- more touches, more types of inventory to control, there are 50 varieties of things now, pop tarts, potato chips, popcorn and beef jerky. As all of these things cycle, they have separate skus, locations, back stock locations, etc… As new items come in, old go out, and this continues to add to the touches and foot steps, which adds up to expense.
  7. Anyone have a favorite oreo? This is a perfect example of how fast product lifecycles have become.
  8. Varies fulfillment options- There are many flavors and each of these has added costs and complexities. How much inventory should be held? How much time should someone search for a product? How many times is a product being touched?
  9. Wage rates will be rising in the next handful of years and this will have an impact on productivity. The good news from a company standpoint is that all retailers face this pressure. But it’s definitely something to think about. Imagine what a 5% increase to your biggest expense.
  10. Take a look at SG&A as an expense where payroll is the largest offender. The size of the prize is large, and you can tell when companies focus on reducing these areas.
  11. There’s a lot more technology out there than what is on the slide. I think these are vetted and will proliferate over time. RFID is going to be game changing with inventory accuracy and location. It will also open the doors to many other options such as automated receiving and possibly checkout. ESL- Electronic Shelf Labels- Still spendy in the US, taking off in other countries. Dynamic pricing is key here, however I wonder if this pauses until full color becomes more available? E-Ink – Which is what a Kindle uses, announced full color capability earlier this year. Self Checkout- Seems easy- remember when those were horrible? Quick poll- who here prefers self checkout to non (results were 90/10 in favor)
  12. I think that the case for predictive analytics is an interesting one and it comes down to accurate forecasting by location. There’s lot of work done at the high level to plan inventory, cube, etc, but historical data and trend are the main forces at work with payroll at a store level. Exponential smoothing is the generally accepted method with some added special tinkering I’m sure. But what if we went the opposite direction. Attacked the peaks and valleys so we can attack the traffic and save during the lulls. I think that cold be done by taking the historical and trend data, and combing with data like social, news, local events, weather, and applied machine learning. If we could identify the spikes and dips more accurately, how productive could we be? We could plan promotions better if we knew that a Comicon week sells out of facepaint every year. Expertise would definitely need to be added into the mix. A store manager in TX on a Friday night in football season probably knows she’ll sell more beer, chips, and lawn chairs but that expertise needs to be captured and mined against the rest of the data so it doesn’t have to be re-learned by the next manager but built into the forecast.
  13. I made this up, not a thing that I’m aware of, but again with a LOT of analysis, what if you had a value to each decision you made with your payoll? ROI on your labor dollars? Once table stakes are paid for, where is the best place to put your remaining payroll dollar? Service? Merchandising? Pricing? I believe most companies still look at this from a tops down category budgeting process, but a bottoms up solution may be more profitable.
  14. Last, and definitely not least, is simply talking to each other. I love coming to these events because I meet passionate and curious people. My company is huge, and navigating outside your area can be difficult. I’ve found some amazing connections here and generated many ideas by just meeting and talking about the challenges we’re facing. If you’re not in operations, go make a friend in that area.