2. The Rival Perspectives
“By almost any measure, public confidence and
trust in, and support for, politicians, political
parties, and political institutions has eroded over
the past generation.”
Russell Dalton
Democratic Challenges, Democratic Choices (2004).
“First, the evidence demonstrates that, contrary to
the prevalent view, public support for the political
system has not eroded consistently . . . including
in the established democracies.”
Pippa Norris
Democratic Deficit (2011).
3. The Questions of the Day
Has political support declined over time?
Depends on what you mean by “support”
Has political support declined over time?
Depends on what you mean by “over time”
Has political support declined over time?
Depends on “where” you mean
4. Examples of Political Support
Level of Examples of
Evaluation Questions
Community Best nation to live
National pride, sense of national
identity
Democratic Principles Democracy best form of government
Democratic values
Democratic Norms and Evaluations of rights
Procedures Satisfaction with democratic process
Democratic Political Trust institutions
Institutions Trust ‘government’
Authorities Trust politicians in general
Identify with party
5. My Thesis
1950-60s: The theory and empirical evidence
suggested that democratic publics were allegiant
and deferential, and this was essential to
democratic politics— The Civic Culture model.
2000s: A substantial proportion of the public
have become “critical citizens”, “dissatisfied
democrats” or “engaged citizens” who are less
trustful of government, more assertive in their
interests, and still strongly supportive of
democratic values— The Civic Culture
Transformed (Dalton & Welzel, eds.)
6. Decreasing Political Support … Fewer
Americans Trust Government or Feel
Politicians Care
80
70
Percentage Expressing Trust
60
50
40
30
20
Do right
10 Officials care
Govt benefit all
0
1958 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Source: ANES
7. 80 The Trend in Trust
Sept 11, 2001
1st Gulf War
70
60
50
40
30
20
L eg e n d
10
A N ES
N Y T im e s
0
1 95 5 1 96 0 1 96 5 1 97 0 1 97 5 1 98 0 1 98 5 1 99 0 1 99 5 2 00 0 2 00 5 2 01 0 2 01 5
8. Decreasing Confidence in U.S. Institutions
50
40
30
20
10
Su pr em e C t
Ex e c ut iv e
C on gr es s
0
19 71 19 76 19 84 19 93 20 00 20 06
19 66 19 73 19 80 19 88 19 96 20 04 20 10
Source: Harris 1966, GSS/NORC other years
9. Another Example: Do Politicians Care?
80
70 USA
60
50
40
30 W. Germany Canada
20 France
10
0
195 5 196 5 197 5 198 5 199 5 200 5 201 5
Source: ANES, GES, Sofres, and CES.
10. Declining Swedish Political Trust
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
1968 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1998 2002 2006
Source Swedish Election Studies. Distrust both parties and politicians
11. Confidence in Parliament, WVS
80
Iceland
70
60
Norway
Sweden
Confidence -- Time 2 (circa 2000)
50
Denmark
Belgium
40
Canada Australia
UK France
Italy Ireland
30
W. Germany
Dutch
Japan
20 USA
10
0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Confidence -- Time 1 (circa 1980)
Source: 1st and last most recent WVS survey
12. New Type of Dissatisfied Democrats
• Same Trends for Support for Party
System, PID, Trust in Parliament
• Citizens are Not Deferential to Elites
• Contentious Citizens
• Higher Expectations of Government
• Expect Government to Live up to its
Democratic Ideals
13. The Conclusions of the Day
Has political support declined over time?
Yes if we mean trust in politicians, parties,
parliament—but not democratic ideals, norms
or support for political community.
Has political support declined over time?
Yes if we are comparing trust today to early
benchmarks in “The Civic Culture” age of
1960-70s.
Has political support declined over time?
Yes if we focus on established democracies.
14. In Conclusion:
• Contemporary publics are different
• Different doesn’t necessarily mean
better/worse
• So our agenda should be to identify
the correlates and causal
consequences of change
15. Confidence in U.S. Institutions Starting 1970s
50
40
30
20
10
Ex e c ut iv e
C on gr es s
0
19 71 19 76 19 84 19 93 20 00 20 06
19 66 19 73 19 80 19 88 19 96 20 04 20 10
Source: GSS/NORC surveys
16. Confidence in U.S. Institutions Starting in 1966
50
40
30
20
10
Ex e c ut iv e
C on gr es s
0
19 71 19 76 19 84 19 93 20 00 20 06
19 66 19 73 19 80 19 88 19 96 20 04 20 10
Source: Harris 1966, GSS other years
17. Confidence in U.S. Institutions, Harris & GSS
50
40
30
20
10
H ar ris -C o ng res s
G SS -C on gre s s
0
19 71 19 76 19 84 19 93 20 00 20 06 20 10
19 66 19 73 19 80 19 88 19 96 20 04 20 08 20 11
Source: Harris and GSS
