1. A Recipe for Water allocation in Africa
By: Maurits Dorlandt (Student Earth system sciences)
Supervised by: Dr. Fulco Ludwig & Prof. Pavel Kabat
Master thesis:
Research to the costs, necessity and implementation of Water storage in African countries
a qualitative and quantitative approach, based on modeled climate data

2. Contents
What am I going to tell?
• Introduction
• Set-up of the research (-questions)
• Materials & Methods (Part 1, Part 2)
• Results  The Matrix of Water Security
• Results  Africa’s precipitation predictions
• Discussion
• Conclusions
• Time for Questions / Feedback

3. Introduction (1) – Background of the study
Why/how did I come to this project?
Three potential jobs to be done:
• A recent study of Ludwig & Kabat: Linking climate and economic data on precipitation data This
needed some additional data for scientific support.
• There is interest in analyzing IPCC modeled climate data
• Unpublished information of World Bank, which needs scientific references
Table David Grey:
45.1160128Morocco
49.8299239Algeria
409.9854683Senegal
222.5190152Burkina Faso
5817.9639511Uganda
6027.4763610Tanzania
2412.1384307Kenya
14446.2694555Ethiopia
3267.3503402Nigeria
81.3678542Namibia
441.7939751Lesotho
Period needed at 5%
current GDP
investment per year
(no pop. inc.)
(Years)
Storage
Investments
Required
(US$ Billion)
Storage
investments
required per
person
(US$)
Additional
Storage needed
per person
(m3)
Country
45.1160128Morocco
49.8299239Algeria
409.9854683Senegal
222.5190152Burkina Faso
5817.9639511Uganda
6027.4763610Tanzania
2412.1384307Kenya
14446.2694555Ethiopia
3267.3503402Nigeria
81.3678542Namibia
441.7939751Lesotho
Period needed at 5%
current GDP
investment per year
(no pop. inc.)
(Years)
Storage
Investments
Required
(US$ Billion)
Storage
investments
required per
person
(US$)
Additional
Storage needed
per person
(m3)
Country
2 ASSUMPTIONS!
(NOT SHOWN)
support

4. Introduction (1) – Background of the study
Why/how did I come to this project?
Three potential jobs to be done:
• A recent study of Ludwig & Kabat: Linking climate and economic data on precipitation data This
needed some additional data for scientific support.
• There is interest in analyzing IPCC modeled climate data
• Unpublished information of World Bank, which needs scientific references
Table David Grey:
45.1160128Morocco
49.8299239Algeria
409.9854683Senegal
222.5190152Burkina Faso
5817.9639511Uganda
6027.4763610Tanzania
2412.1384307Kenya
14446.2694555Ethiopia
3267.3503402Nigeria
81.3678542Namibia
441.7939751Lesotho
Period needed at 5%
current GDP
investment per year
(no pop. inc.)
(Years)
Storage
Investments
Required
(US$ Billion)
Storage
investments
required per
person
(US$)
Additional
Storage needed
per person
(m3)
Country
45.1160128Morocco
49.8299239Algeria
409.9854683Senegal
222.5190152Burkina Faso
5817.9639511Uganda
6027.4763610Tanzania
2412.1384307Kenya
14446.2694555Ethiopia
3267.3503402Nigeria
81.3678542Namibia
441.7939751Lesotho
Period needed at 5%
current GDP
investment per year
(no pop. inc.)
(Years)
Storage
Investments
Required
(US$ Billion)
Storage
investments
required per
person
(US$)
Additional
Storage needed
per person
(m3)
Country
2 ASSUMPTIONS!
(NOT SHOWN)
support

5. Introduction (2) – The region approach
In the study of
Ludwig & Kabat,
Africa is divided into
regions
• Displaying results
per region gives a
better overview
• Regions contain
countries with
similar climate
patterns
• A region may
follow about the
same climatic
change
5 Regions
Southern
Africa
East Africa
Central
Africa
Coastal West
Africa
Sahel
Mediteranean
Africa
6

6. Set-up – Research Questions
What is my research about?
Sub questions:
1. What is the definition of water security and reservoir costs?
2. How much water storage is currently available/required in African countries?
3. How much water storage will be available/required with future climate variability predictions?
4. What is the impact of changes in precipitation patterns on run-off (water availability)?
5. What water strategy/policy leads to “water security”, considering the environment, politics & social
aspects?
Main question:
What investments qualitatively & quantitatively (time & money) are needed to deal with the
future climate (variability) in Africa with respect to GDP growth per capita?

7. 1. Calculate current reservoir capacity (RCC)
2. Define a number for required storage capacity (RSC)
Materials & Methods (1) – Reservoir storage
4. Define a unit of reservoir costs S.N.S. 
Ref. Ethiopian Water
recources - Sadoff 2006
(World Bank)
Literature Check!
Ref. Water sec. For growth &
development – Grey & Sadoff 2007
(World Bank)

8. Materials & Methods (1.2) – Calculating investment
RESERVOIR COSTS:
• Depends on: size, location, year of construction, purposes of reservoir
• Source: table of David Grey (World Bank) 1,27$/m3
• Source: energy experts (World Bank 2006) 1.22$/m3
• Source: this research  very basic:
About:
1,25 ≈ 1 $/m3
Dividing the costs of multi purpose
reservoir structures by their total
capacity in year 2000 dollars per cubic
meters), sorting them by size. Problem:
Limited scientific literature!

9. Materials & Methods (2.1) - Climate simulation
-- Student S. Mxolishi 2008 (KNMI)  Study to “reliable models” for Africa
- Chosen models:
- Every model comes from a total different institute
- Spatial resolution is about the same for these models
- These are all well-known & often used in publications
Model name Institute Country Code name
UKMO-HadCM3 Hadley Centre / Met Office UK HADCM3
ECHAM5/MPI-OM Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany MPEH5
CSIRO-Mk3.0 CSIRO Atmospheric Research Australia CSMK3
MRI-CGCM2.3.2 Meteorological Research Institute Japan MRCGCM
CNRM-CM3 Météo-France France CNCM3
GCM3.1(T47) Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling Canada CGMR
Annual Jan/Feb Jul/Aug

10. Materials & Methods (2.2) – Climate simulation
- Simulation scenarios:
-Different scenarios for World Development
We chose B1 and A2 scenario,
intermediate situation, likely to happen

11. Results (1.1) – Water storage costs
Dam Name Country $/m3 Purpose Category Aver.
hoover dam 2 USA colorado 0,02 storage/hydropower big
0,17
Owyhee dam USA ,
Adrian,Oregon 0,02 big
3 gorges dam China, 0,85 storage/hydropower/flood control big
High aswan dam Egypt 0,01 flood control hydro power big
Manantali Mali/Senegal 0,09 hydropower flood control big
Kariba Zambia/Zimbabwe 0,01 hydropower flood control big
Patterson Lake
Dam USA, Illinois 0,16 Irigation small
Keechelus Dam USA, Washington 0,24 irigation small
Cle Elum Dam USA, Washington 0,93 in stream flow small
Wenas Dam USA, Washington 1,29 irrigation small
Judy Reservoir USA, Oklahoma 4,29 Municipal small
hoover dam USA ohio 0,92 storage/hydropower small
Paradise dam Australia,
Queensland 0,19 small
Auburn USA, California 1,95 hydropower flood control small
Average
over all
• Costs vary a lot per location/purpose/size as mentioned
• Result: 0,78 $/m3  but better: a range 0,2 to 1,2 or 0,3 to 1

12. Results (1.2) – The water-matrix “reloaded”
For some countries & region avaragesCountry
Total dam
reservoir capacity
(World Register
of dams 2003)
Dam
reservoir
capacity per
capita
Addition
al
Storage
needed
pp
Storage Investments
Required per person
min./max.
Current
GDP/ca
pita
5% GDP investment (no pop.
Growth) min./max.
Table
Grey
unit m3 m3/capita m3 c $ (min) c $ (max) 2006 $ # year (min) # year (max) year
Region Southern Africa 2579,66 407,3 $122,20 $407,34 € 2.490 0 0
Region Central Africa 2399,28 629,6 $218,94 $729,79 € 1.638 0 0
Region East Africa 324,40 727,8 $218,33 $727,75 € 377 17,6 58,5
Region Sahel 163,44 586,56 $175,97 $586,56 € 613 6,89 22,96
Region Coastal West Africa 1265,12 615,40 $188,87 $629,55 € 619 0 0
Region Mediteranean Africa 667,16 465,49 $139,65 $465,49 € 3.672 0,71 2,38
Namibia 645.481.000 307,37 442,63 $132,79 $442,63 € 3.127 0,8 2,8 8
South Africa 31.017.863.000 654,51 95,49 $28,65 $95,49 € 5.384 0,1 0,4 0
Burkina Faso 3.808.000.000 265,20 484,80 $145,44 $484,80 € 430 6,8 22,6 22
Ethiopia 2.624.000.000 34,01 715,99 $214,80 $715,99 € 173 24,9 83,0 144
Kenya 3.957.485.000 108,27 641,73 $192,52 $641,73 € 623 6,2 20,6 24
Tanzania 1.135.000.000 28,76 721,24 $216,37 $721,24 € 324 13,4 44,5 60
Uganda 204.000.000 6,82 743,18 $222,95 $743,18 € 315 14,2 47,2 58
Centr. Africa 0 0,00 750,00 $186,09 $620,31 € 350 12,8 42,8
Nigeria 40.414.939.000 279,26 470,74 $141,22 $470,74 € 797 3,5 11,8 32
Senegal 5885000000 487,49 262,51 $78,75 $262,51 € 761 2,1 6,9 40
Algeria 4.808.080.000 144,17 605,83 $181,75 $605,83 € 3.440 1,1 3,5 4
Morocco 16.185.835.000 530,74 219,26 $65,78 $219,26 € 2.145 0,6 2,0 4
Libya 335.150.000 55,50 694,50 $208,35 $694,50 € 8.333 0,5 1,7
Egypt 163.000.000.000 2197,77 $0,00 $0,00 € 1.449For: Water Security = 750 m3/capita and Storage cost 0.3 <

13. Results (2.1) - Climate variability
With a small change in the mean, frequencies can rise rapidly
• Curve represents climate (events)
• Normal condition happens often
(middle of curve)
• Extreme events indicated by
black/grey area
Why being concerned about shifting climate (variability)?
# Event
occurence
Red: disasters
Blue: normal conditions

14. Results (2.2) - Climate simulation
model Echam Hadcm
scenario B1 A1B B1 A1b
region name unit precip runoff precip runoff precip runoff precip runoff
southern africa botswana -17% -42% -25% -65% -10% -1% -11% 2%
southern africa swaziland -6% -14% -2% -9% -7% -16% -6% -15%
southern africa AVG -11% -22% -11% -24% -8% -12% -8% -11%
east africa ethiopia 3% 3% 11% 16% 8% 12% 17% 33%
east africa tanzania 3% 2% 9% 18% -3% -12% 2% -1%
east africa uganda 11% 26% 15% 38% 0% -2% 1% 0%
east africa AVG 3% 68% 11% 146% 0% 36% 5% 76%
sahel burkina_faso -5% -12% -7% -15% 9% 31% 10% 33%
sahel sudan 6% 34% 16% 76% 5% 12% 11% 33%
sahel mauritania -26% -53% -25% -57% -24% -50% -46% -85%
sahel AVG -50% -56% -38% -4% 10% 122% -9% 125%
coastal west africa benin 9% 21% 7% 17% 8% 20% 11% 26%
coastal west africa liberia 5% 7% 3% 2% 12% 23% 15% 27%
coastal west africa sierra_leone 6% 10% 8% 15% 17% 31% 16% 27%
coastal west africa AVG 0% 0% -1% -2% 4% 9% -1% -2%
central africa angola -4% -11% -3% -9% -14% -33% -15% -36%
central africa AVG 5% 7% 10% 19% -2% -9% 0% -6%
mediteranean
africa algeria -25% -47% -37% -61% -19% -33% -22% -39%
mediteranean
africa morocco -34% -53% -46% -67% -24% -44% -24% -46%
Ingjerd Haddeland
Delivered for me
some precipitation
data
This is linked with
runoff from the
VIC model
Runoff can be
interpeted as
“the usefull part
of rain”

15. Results (2.3) - Climate variability
Some figures
Coastal West Africa
Central Africa
CNCM3 & HADCM3 behave strange
Countries in coastal west africa behave very different
2030-2059 2070-2099
East Africa
Sahel
For these regions the models agree, as well for the short
as the long term

16. Integrated Results (2.5)
Water security linked to future predictions
Country 5% GDP investment (no pop.
Growth) min./max.
Precipitation
change
2070/2099
Precipitation
variability
2070/2099
Required
reservoir
capacity
Comments
unit # year (min) # year (max) % % # year
South Africa 0,1 0,4 -5,7 -4,5 higher less prec, less var
Ethiopia 24,9 83,0 -3,8 -1,7 higher less prec, same var
Kenya 6,2 20,6 3,1 -0,2 same or lower more prec, less var
Tanzania 13,4 44,5 2,6 2,9 same or lower more prec, more var
Senegal 2,1 6,9 2,9 -3,7 lower more prec, less var
Algeria 1,1 3,5 -23,8 -20,5 higher less prec, less var
Morocco 0,6 2,0 -28,1 -27,6 higher less prec, less var
An experiment...
Don’t forget population increase!!!

17. Discussion (1) – General Approaches
…there is some urgency to deal with
the problems
However not all noses are in the same
direction yet…
And perceptions of risks may differ
Jokes by: Leemans 2007 :)

18. Discussion (2) - Debates
First Part:
• Cost of water storage is debatable because big dams are “cheaper” then small dams;
•750 m3 as “Water security” also debatable,  strongly depends on the country’s
circumstances (economy, climate, etc.)
• This study neglects other (e.g. natural) water basins  otherwise undoable
Second part:
• Some countries are spatially downgraded to 1 or 2 grids, that gives bad results (e.g. over
100% changes)
• Advantages & disadvantages of averaging 6 models

19. Urgent need for investment
Discussion (3) – The vicious water cycle
Consideration of hard & soft water reallocation

20. Conclusions
1. Most models agree that the regions: Sahel, Mediterranean, and south (west)
Africa will have a drier climate in the coming century
2. All models agree that East and partly central Africa will experience a wetter
climate in the coming century
3. There is a great disagreement about Coastal West Africa
4. Variability is a difficult concept to calculate, from all models it appears that the
changes are likely to vary over all countries.
5. More research is needed to investigate the link between precipitation and
runoff  this very important in water availability calculations
6. Without political stability, awareness and full integrated projects, investments
in water security (in developing countries) is completely useless!

21. Last message...
•The construction of water infra-structures are for some countries urgent…
• However: first, people and nature affected by a dam should be guaranteed
benefits of some kind.
• In Africa there is overall enough water available !
only the allocation in place & time needs to be reapplied
"they should also be better off after the construction of the dam than
they were before.” (Nelson Mandela)

22. Thank you for your attention!
Special thanks to:
• Fulco Ludwig
• Pavel Kabat
• Ingjerd Haddeland
• Stefan Hagemann
• Wytse Franssen
• Olaf Vellinga
• Ruud Hurkmans
• Anneke Geselschap 
• The World Bank people
• All my room mates from March till now
• Everybody that I forgot to mention
If there are any questions, I will do my best to answer
them!