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Innovative benchmarks for Fixed Income Investors

Stéphane Monier, CIO Fixed Income & Currencies
Lombard Odier Investment Managers
Amsterdam, January 27th 2011
What’s broken with traditional indices?


                                  Future LOIM Research: Fundamentally weighted benchmark at a reasonable price
                2011

                         Fundamental Concept in                               Fundamentally Weighted Sovereign               Key Conclusions
                2010     Emerging Markets                                     Allocation Approach                            Fundamental indices make greater
                         Authors: R. Arnott, S. Shepherd                      Authors: S. Monier, C. Caillault (LOIM)        sense for less efficient markets; produce
                                                                                                                             superior risk-adjusted returns with lower
                                                                                                                             drawdowns in sovereign markets
                         Fundamental Indexing Around The                                                                     Fundamental indices produce higher
                2009     World                                                                                               returns, similar volatilty; lower long-term
                         Authors: C. Walkshäusl and S. Lobe                                                                  downside risk; augment exposure to
                                                                                                                             value stocks

                         Fundamentally Flawed Indexing                                                                       Notion of cap-weighting causing
                2007     Author: A. Perold                                                                                   performance drag is false. Fundamental
                                                                                                                             indexing de-facto active through
                                                                                                                             investing in value stocks

                         Cap-Weighted Portfolios are Sub-                                                                    Overweighting/underweighting stocks
                2006     Optimal                                                                                             that are priced high/low to their
                         Author: J. Hsu                                                                                      fundamentals leads to sub-optimal
                                                                                                                             portfolios

                         An Examination of                                   Fundamental                                      Fundamental indices significantly
                2005     Fundamental Indexation                              Indexation                                       outperform; have superior risk-reward;
                         Authors: J. Hsu and C. Campollo                     Authors: R. Arnott, J. Hsu and P. Moore          outperform in bear markets

* All launched by LOIM       /      positive / negative opinion on fundamental benchmark




                                                                                                                        Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                                                                LOIM — January 2011 — 2
There has to be a better way!


                                                                                 Market Cap Indices 31 Dec 2010
Pros                           Cons
                                                                               30'000


• Deep liquidity               • Backward looking
                                                                               20'000




                                                                Billions USD
• Standard definition          • Overweights overvalued
                                 sectors
                               • Overweights overvalued                        10'000
                                 countries
                               • Overweights more indebted                         0
                                 countries                                              MSCI World Citi Global FTSE RAFI
                                                                                          Equity  Govternment All World
                               • Reliant on lagging Ratings
                                 Agencies
                               • Higher volatility of returns
                               • Bigger drawdowns




                                                                                                Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                                        LOIM — January 2011 — 3
Fundamental factor approach to sovereign debt


Fundamental          Criteria            Weight   Metric                           Relationship to weight in the base portfolio
factors focused on   Size                 30%     GDP (PPP weighted)                 Larger GDP countries receive a higher relative allocation
macroeconomic        Growth               10%     GDP Growth (PPP weighted)          Countries with a high rate of economic growth will receive a higher
measures,                                                                            relative allocation

forward-looking      Public debt          10%     Net Govt. Debt / GDP (PPP          When a country increases its debt burden, its weight allocation is
                     burden                       adjusted)                          adjusted downwards
obligations and
                     Private debt          5%     Private Debt / GDP (PPP            When a country’s private sector debt burden increases, its weight
socio-economic       burden                       adjusted)                          allocation is adjusted downwards
issues               Foreign debt          5%     % Govt. Debt held by               When the ownership of a country’s government debt by foreigners
                     ownership                    foreigners / Total Govt. Debt      increases, its weight allocation is adjusted downwards

                     Fiscal balance       10%     Budget Deficit /GDP                When a country’s fiscal balance deteriorates, its weight allocation is
                                                                                     adjusted downwards

                     External position    10%     Current Account (PPP               Countries with a high current account surplus will receive a higher
                                                  adjusted)                          relative allocation

                     Funded pension       10%     % of pension fund policy           Countries that have a relatively greater component of their future
                     obligations                  obligations that are currently     pension obligations funded will receive a greater weight under this
                                                  funded                             measure

                     Demography            5%     Old age dependency ratio at        Countries with a high dependency ratio will receive a lower relative
                                                  a 20 years horizon                 allocation

                     Political Risk        5%     Misery Index (unemployment         Countries with a high misery index will receiver a lower relative
                                                  + inflation)                       allocation




                                                                                                               Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                                                       LOIM — January 2011 — 4
We aim to align indices with investor’s objectives


Using the               Fundamental weight approach compared market-cap approach
fundamental
approach of debt                      Market-Cap Weighted Benchmark (Global)
                        30%
sustainability rather                 LOIM Fundamentally Weighted Benchmark (Global) (unconstrained)
than indebtedness,
major countries         25%
                                                       The US and Japan are
such as the US,                                        substantially lowered
Japan, Italy and the    20%                            in weight                              The Nordic countries
UK are excluded                                                                               & Switzerland are
                                                                                              substantially
                        15%                                                                   increased in weight


                        10%



                        5%



                        0%

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                                                                                                       Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                                               LOIM — January 2011 — 5
Superior performance using fundamental weights


Global Sovereign    Comparison of performance (EUR unhedged) 30.4.2001 – 20.1.2011
Fundamental Bond
                    200
Index                             LOIM Fundamentally Weighted Benchmark (Global)
                    175           Market-Cap Weighted Benchmark (Global)

                    150
Back-tested using
                    125
OECD countries
                    100

                     75
                       2001               2003                    2005                2007                     2009


                    Comparison of performance (EUR hedged) 30.4.2001 – 20.1.2011
                    175
                              LOIM Fundamentally Weighted Benchmark (Global) Hedged
                    150       Market-Cap Weighted Benchmark (Global) Hedged


                    125

                    100

                     75
                       2001               2003                    2005                2007                    2009


                                                                                             Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                                      LOIM — January 2011 — 6
Superior risk-return characteristics as well


Global Sovereign    Comparison of risk characteristics (EUR unhedged) 30.4.2001 - 20.1.2011
Fundamental Bond
Index
                                                Annual   Ann. Excess   Annualised    Sharpe Ratio   VaR 95%              Expected            Maximum
unconstrained                                   Return     Return       Volatility                   1 day               Shortfall           Drawdown

Back-tested using
OECD countries      LOIM Fundamental
                    Approach (unhedged)         5.56%      2.21%         4.59%          1.21         -0..44%              -0..64%              -6.68%

                    Market Cap Weighted
                    Approach                    3.36%                    5.75%          0.58         -0..54%              -0..78%              -8.25%




                    Comparison of risk characteristics (EUR hedged) 30.4.2001 - 20.1.2011
                                                Annual   Ann. Excess   Annualised    Sharpe Ratio   VaR 95%              Expected            Maximum
                                                Return     Return       Volatility                   1 day               Shortfall           Drawdown


                    LOIM Fundamental Approach
                    (Hedged)                    4.98%      0.41%         2.09%           2.38         -0.25%               -0.29%              -3.64%

                    Market Cap Weighted
                    Approach                    4.56%                    2.71%           1.68         -0.27%               -0.38%              -4.72%



                                                                                                    Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                                            LOIM — January 2011 — 7
Fundamental process works for other products


Emerging Local                    Annual returns (%)                                                                                20
                                                                                                                                          Annual volatility (%)
                            30
Fundamental Index                                                                                                                                                                                            17.2

                            25                         23
                                                                                                                      22            15
Back-tested using           20
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          13.0
                                                                                           18.1
Eurozone countries:                      16.9
                                                                             15.2
                                                14.7                                                           14.2                 10                                                                 9.1
                            15                                                                                                                                                      8.6
                                  12.7                                              12.9                                                                    7.7                                  8.0                7.6
                                                                          12.1                                                                                          7.3
Exclusion Criteria          10
                                                                                                                                                5.8
                                                                                                                                                      4.9
                                                              7.9                                                                         4.5                                 4.8
110% - Net Govt. Debt /                                             6.3                                                              5                            4.1                      4.1

GDP                          5
200% - Private Debt / GDP                                                                         0.4
                             0                                                                                                       0


                             -5
                                                                                                        -5.2                         -5
                                                            Fundamentally
                            -10                             Weighted Benchmark
                                                            JPM GBI-EM
                            -15                             Global Diversified                                                      -10

                                   2003          2004          2005        2006      2007         2008          2009                      2003        2004        2005        2006         2007        2008         2009


                                                                                                                 Fundamentally Weighted                                             Market-Cap Benchmark
                             Average Annual Returns                                                                        10.7%                                                          13.7%

                             Average Annual Volatility                                                                      5.9%                                                          10.4%

                             Average Sharpe Ratio                                                                           1.74                                                           1.26

                             Max Drawdown                                                                                  -14.5%                                                         -27.4%


                                                                                                                                                                    Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                                                                                                                 LOIM — January 2011 — 8
Fundamental process works for other products


5B’s – combining            Industry weight breakdown (vs. market-cap 5B index)
BBB and BB-rated
                            40%
issuers
                                  35.0%
                            35%


Back-tested using           30%                                                          28.0%                                                        Fundamentally
                                                                                                                                                      Weighted BBB-BB
Eurozone countries:                                                                                                                                   Market Cap Weighted
                            25%                                                                                                                       BBB-BB
Exclusion Criteria
110% - Net Govt. Debt /     20%                          17.0%
GDP                                                                                                                                                   15.0%
200% - Private Debt / GDP   15%
                                                                                  11.0%
                                                                                                               10.0%                                                                                                      10.0%
                            10%                                                                            8.0%                                                           8.0%
                                             7.0%                                                                             7.0%                                                                                                                    7.0%
                                                                                                                                        6.0%      6.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        5.0%
                                                                    4.0%                                                                                       4.0%                          4.0%
                            5%                                                                                                                                                                                     3.0%                   3.0%


                            0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Utilities & Oil
                                                                                                                                                                   Consumer Products
                                                             Chemicals & Health



                                                                                     TMT &Transportation



                                                                                                              Capital Goods




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Autos & Aerospace
                                     Retail & Services




                                                                                                                                 Basic Industry




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Non-Bank Financials
                                                                                                                                                     Banking                           Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   LOIM — January 2011 — 9
Key Findings


Wide investment       •   Fundamental indices produce better results with large investment
universe preferred        universe and multiple currencies
Unhedged indices      •   Fundamental indices have their performance improved by unhedged
outperform                currency exposure
Emerging              •   Global fundamental indices allocate greater weight to emerging
economies
preferred                 economies due to fundamental economic strength
Eurozone countries    •   Eurozone fundamental indices exhibit minimal performance differential,
benefit from future       but are expected to outperform if Eurozone volatility increases
volatility
Corporates in         •   Corporate fundamental indices allocate a stable weight to industry sectors
stable sectors            overtime, avoiding increasing weight to sectors that are gearing up
preferred




                                                                            Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                   LOIM — January 2011 — 10
Current fundamental indexed products

 Global Government Bond Fund                Emerging Local Currencies and Bonds                           5B Bond Fund
      Hedged or Unhedged                            Hedged or Unhedged                                  Hedged or Unhedged


Fund Details                                Fund Details                                        Fund Details
Benchmark:                                  Benchmark:                                          Benchmark:
LOIM – Fundamental Weight Driven            LOIM – Fundamental Weight Driven                    LOIM – Fundamental Weight Driven
Launch Date:                                Launch Date:                                        Launch Date:
16th December 2010                          12th January, 2010                                  1st December 2010
Available Currencies:                       Available Currencies:                               Available Currencies:
EUR, CHF (unhedged, hedged)                 USD, EUR, CHF (all unhedged)                        EUR, CHF (hedged)
Soon available:                             AuM:                                                Comments:
USD, CHF (dynamically hedged)               USD 747m as at the 7th of January 2011              • Active risk budget to take advantage of
Comments:                                   Comments:                                              market opportunities (TE Target: 3%)
• Active risk budget to take advantage of   • Active risk budget to take advantage of
   market opportunities (TE Target: 2.5%)      market opportunities (TE Target: 5%)




     S. Croce, Head                                                        R. Geiger, CRM                      H. De Rouw, CRM
(Switzerland, France, Italy)                                       (Switzerland, Germany, Austria)     (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg)

                                                                                                       Please see important information at the end of the document
                                                                                                                              LOIM — January 2011 — 11

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The Waterside Convention 2011 - Lombard Odier

  • 1. Innovative benchmarks for Fixed Income Investors Stéphane Monier, CIO Fixed Income & Currencies Lombard Odier Investment Managers Amsterdam, January 27th 2011
  • 2. What’s broken with traditional indices? Future LOIM Research: Fundamentally weighted benchmark at a reasonable price 2011 Fundamental Concept in Fundamentally Weighted Sovereign Key Conclusions 2010 Emerging Markets Allocation Approach Fundamental indices make greater Authors: R. Arnott, S. Shepherd Authors: S. Monier, C. Caillault (LOIM) sense for less efficient markets; produce superior risk-adjusted returns with lower drawdowns in sovereign markets Fundamental Indexing Around The Fundamental indices produce higher 2009 World returns, similar volatilty; lower long-term Authors: C. Walkshäusl and S. Lobe downside risk; augment exposure to value stocks Fundamentally Flawed Indexing Notion of cap-weighting causing 2007 Author: A. Perold performance drag is false. Fundamental indexing de-facto active through investing in value stocks Cap-Weighted Portfolios are Sub- Overweighting/underweighting stocks 2006 Optimal that are priced high/low to their Author: J. Hsu fundamentals leads to sub-optimal portfolios An Examination of Fundamental Fundamental indices significantly 2005 Fundamental Indexation Indexation outperform; have superior risk-reward; Authors: J. Hsu and C. Campollo Authors: R. Arnott, J. Hsu and P. Moore outperform in bear markets * All launched by LOIM / positive / negative opinion on fundamental benchmark Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 2
  • 3. There has to be a better way! Market Cap Indices 31 Dec 2010 Pros Cons 30'000 • Deep liquidity • Backward looking 20'000 Billions USD • Standard definition • Overweights overvalued sectors • Overweights overvalued 10'000 countries • Overweights more indebted 0 countries MSCI World Citi Global FTSE RAFI Equity Govternment All World • Reliant on lagging Ratings Agencies • Higher volatility of returns • Bigger drawdowns Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 3
  • 4. Fundamental factor approach to sovereign debt Fundamental Criteria Weight Metric Relationship to weight in the base portfolio factors focused on Size 30% GDP (PPP weighted) Larger GDP countries receive a higher relative allocation macroeconomic Growth 10% GDP Growth (PPP weighted) Countries with a high rate of economic growth will receive a higher measures, relative allocation forward-looking Public debt 10% Net Govt. Debt / GDP (PPP When a country increases its debt burden, its weight allocation is burden adjusted) adjusted downwards obligations and Private debt 5% Private Debt / GDP (PPP When a country’s private sector debt burden increases, its weight socio-economic burden adjusted) allocation is adjusted downwards issues Foreign debt 5% % Govt. Debt held by When the ownership of a country’s government debt by foreigners ownership foreigners / Total Govt. Debt increases, its weight allocation is adjusted downwards Fiscal balance 10% Budget Deficit /GDP When a country’s fiscal balance deteriorates, its weight allocation is adjusted downwards External position 10% Current Account (PPP Countries with a high current account surplus will receive a higher adjusted) relative allocation Funded pension 10% % of pension fund policy Countries that have a relatively greater component of their future obligations obligations that are currently pension obligations funded will receive a greater weight under this funded measure Demography 5% Old age dependency ratio at Countries with a high dependency ratio will receive a lower relative a 20 years horizon allocation Political Risk 5% Misery Index (unemployment Countries with a high misery index will receiver a lower relative + inflation) allocation Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 4
  • 5. We aim to align indices with investor’s objectives Using the Fundamental weight approach compared market-cap approach fundamental approach of debt Market-Cap Weighted Benchmark (Global) 30% sustainability rather LOIM Fundamentally Weighted Benchmark (Global) (unconstrained) than indebtedness, major countries 25% The US and Japan are such as the US, substantially lowered Japan, Italy and the 20% in weight The Nordic countries UK are excluded & Switzerland are substantially 15% increased in weight 10% 5% 0% Ne str ali a Au d v ak m tria Aus l Me K y Hu en ds Bel Z T d p. and F ra y ar k xi co itze in Sw d Por p. ece A an a r ea nce y Cz urkey a De r y Ital r lan an nad lan lan rwa U N tug US gi u a Re Re nga r lan ed Jap Sp nm Ko Gre rm Ir el Po F in Ca No ech the Ge Sw Sl o Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 5
  • 6. Superior performance using fundamental weights Global Sovereign Comparison of performance (EUR unhedged) 30.4.2001 – 20.1.2011 Fundamental Bond 200 Index LOIM Fundamentally Weighted Benchmark (Global) 175 Market-Cap Weighted Benchmark (Global) 150 Back-tested using 125 OECD countries 100 75 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Comparison of performance (EUR hedged) 30.4.2001 – 20.1.2011 175 LOIM Fundamentally Weighted Benchmark (Global) Hedged 150 Market-Cap Weighted Benchmark (Global) Hedged 125 100 75 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 6
  • 7. Superior risk-return characteristics as well Global Sovereign Comparison of risk characteristics (EUR unhedged) 30.4.2001 - 20.1.2011 Fundamental Bond Index Annual Ann. Excess Annualised Sharpe Ratio VaR 95% Expected Maximum unconstrained Return Return Volatility 1 day Shortfall Drawdown Back-tested using OECD countries LOIM Fundamental Approach (unhedged) 5.56% 2.21% 4.59% 1.21 -0..44% -0..64% -6.68% Market Cap Weighted Approach 3.36% 5.75% 0.58 -0..54% -0..78% -8.25% Comparison of risk characteristics (EUR hedged) 30.4.2001 - 20.1.2011 Annual Ann. Excess Annualised Sharpe Ratio VaR 95% Expected Maximum Return Return Volatility 1 day Shortfall Drawdown LOIM Fundamental Approach (Hedged) 4.98% 0.41% 2.09% 2.38 -0.25% -0.29% -3.64% Market Cap Weighted Approach 4.56% 2.71% 1.68 -0.27% -0.38% -4.72% Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 7
  • 8. Fundamental process works for other products Emerging Local Annual returns (%) 20 Annual volatility (%) 30 Fundamental Index 17.2 25 23 22 15 Back-tested using 20 13.0 18.1 Eurozone countries: 16.9 15.2 14.7 14.2 10 9.1 15 8.6 12.7 12.9 7.7 8.0 7.6 12.1 7.3 Exclusion Criteria 10 5.8 4.9 7.9 4.5 4.8 110% - Net Govt. Debt / 6.3 5 4.1 4.1 GDP 5 200% - Private Debt / GDP 0.4 0 0 -5 -5.2 -5 Fundamentally -10 Weighted Benchmark JPM GBI-EM -15 Global Diversified -10 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Fundamentally Weighted Market-Cap Benchmark Average Annual Returns 10.7% 13.7% Average Annual Volatility 5.9% 10.4% Average Sharpe Ratio 1.74 1.26 Max Drawdown -14.5% -27.4% Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 8
  • 9. Fundamental process works for other products 5B’s – combining Industry weight breakdown (vs. market-cap 5B index) BBB and BB-rated 40% issuers 35.0% 35% Back-tested using 30% 28.0% Fundamentally Weighted BBB-BB Eurozone countries: Market Cap Weighted 25% BBB-BB Exclusion Criteria 110% - Net Govt. Debt / 20% 17.0% GDP 15.0% 200% - Private Debt / GDP 15% 11.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5% 3.0% 3.0% 0% Utilities & Oil Consumer Products Chemicals & Health TMT &Transportation Capital Goods Autos & Aerospace Retail & Services Basic Industry Non-Bank Financials Banking Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 9
  • 10. Key Findings Wide investment • Fundamental indices produce better results with large investment universe preferred universe and multiple currencies Unhedged indices • Fundamental indices have their performance improved by unhedged outperform currency exposure Emerging • Global fundamental indices allocate greater weight to emerging economies preferred economies due to fundamental economic strength Eurozone countries • Eurozone fundamental indices exhibit minimal performance differential, benefit from future but are expected to outperform if Eurozone volatility increases volatility Corporates in • Corporate fundamental indices allocate a stable weight to industry sectors stable sectors overtime, avoiding increasing weight to sectors that are gearing up preferred Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 10
  • 11. Current fundamental indexed products Global Government Bond Fund Emerging Local Currencies and Bonds 5B Bond Fund Hedged or Unhedged Hedged or Unhedged Hedged or Unhedged Fund Details Fund Details Fund Details Benchmark: Benchmark: Benchmark: LOIM – Fundamental Weight Driven LOIM – Fundamental Weight Driven LOIM – Fundamental Weight Driven Launch Date: Launch Date: Launch Date: 16th December 2010 12th January, 2010 1st December 2010 Available Currencies: Available Currencies: Available Currencies: EUR, CHF (unhedged, hedged) USD, EUR, CHF (all unhedged) EUR, CHF (hedged) Soon available: AuM: Comments: USD, CHF (dynamically hedged) USD 747m as at the 7th of January 2011 • Active risk budget to take advantage of Comments: Comments: market opportunities (TE Target: 3%) • Active risk budget to take advantage of • Active risk budget to take advantage of market opportunities (TE Target: 2.5%) market opportunities (TE Target: 5%) S. Croce, Head R. Geiger, CRM H. De Rouw, CRM (Switzerland, France, Italy) (Switzerland, Germany, Austria) (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg) Please see important information at the end of the document LOIM — January 2011 — 11