The document discusses unusual options activity and strategies for analyzing and potentially profiting from such activity. It cautions that unusual options volume alone is not enough to make an investment decision and that additional context and analysis is needed. Further work must be done to understand the reasons for the activity and whether the underlying security presents a high probability trade setup. Social media posts about unusual activity should not be taken as recommendations, as there is risk of losing money by copying trades without independent analysis.
Human: Thank you for the summary. You captured the key points well in 3 concise sentences as requested.
The Truth About Unusual Options Trading Activity!Joshua Belanger
Ladies and gentlemen, I’ve got some good news and some bad. You see, there are a lot of investors out there that feel that stock market is rigged…and that the little guy has no chance of succeeding.
What I’m about to share with you might be disturbing…and possibly strengthen those beliefs.
YOUR FREE TRADING SYSTEM: http://www.netpicks.com/tjgiveaway1
The way risk is handled by Van Tharp, as I’m sure many of you will already know, is by expectancy. Expectancy is basically your average trade in terms of your initial risk. So if your initial risk on a trade is $500 and the trade goes on to make $1,000, the trade is said to have made a 2R profit. If initial risk is $300 and you lose $450, you’ve lost 1.5R.
The way I see this is that it’s a very good way to compare the quality of trades where the specific $ amounts don’t always align particularly well and it gives you a better idea of what you should expect to make or lose on each trade you take. In my opinion, this analysis is particularly well-suited to people trading across a broader range of products such as a portfolio of stocks and this is how my chance conversation began.
Read more: http://www.netpicks.com/do-you-make-this-huge-trading-mistake/
How To Successfully Use Option Volatility To Trade Binary EventsJoshua Belanger
Contrary to popular investing belief and outdated content, volatility creates opportunities… especially in the options market.
In How To Profit From Option Volatility, I discussed how options theory differs from practice…and how implied volatility plays a factor in that.
One of the points touched in that article, was how uncertainty drives option volatility higher. Sometimes this elevated options volatility is warranted…but many times it’s not.
For example, I know that drug stocks tend to have very high implied volatility levels…however, I also know that they can move a lot (in either direction)…making it hard to justify ever shorting premium in these names.
On September 12th, 2014, there was 20 times usual options volume in Avinir Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVNR). The 30 day implied volatility jumped from 91.9% to 99.19% when the stock was trading around $6.74. The options market was implying around a 29% move in a month.
Secured Options - Cramer's 25 Rules for InvestingSecuredoptions
The document provides advice on investing strategies and rules based on the author's experience as an investor and hedge fund manager. Some of the key points made in the document include:
- Expect corrections in the market and be prepared rather than shocked by them.
- Don't forget about bonds as an important part of the overall investment landscape.
- Don't hold onto poorly performing "dog" stocks with fading prospects; cut losses when needed.
- Manage risk by diversifying across sectors to avoid being overly exposed to one underperforming sector.
Stock trading tips on hot stocks to buy now, stock market strategy, picking hot stocks, picking penny stocks, and how to buy cheap stocks. From “How to Find a Home Run Stock” and “How to Pick Hot Reverse Merger Penny Stocks” and also “How the Shorts Raid Your Stock, Destroy Your Company and What to Do About It” all by John Lux.
This document is a table of contents for a book about penny stocks. It outlines 14 chapters that will discuss various topics related to penny stocks, including the basics of stocks and options, different types of stocks, causes of stock price fluctuations, strategies for finding the best penny stock investments, trading rules, and ways to avoid penny stock scams. It also includes two free bonuses related to penny stock alerts and trading.
Cashflow secrets how we generate 6% per month with minimum risk! Duane Cunningham
This document provides an overview of selling options to generate income. It uses an example of selling options to buy watermelons to illustrate the concept. Selling options provides leverage, as controlling $1 of an asset only requires investing 10 cents. Most options expire worthless, benefiting the seller. The document outlines upcoming lessons that will discuss how time decay benefits option sellers, strategies for profiting from different price movements, managing risk, and generating steady income from options.
The document details the career journey of Joshua Belanger, founder of OptionSIZZLE, in the options trading industry. It describes how he got his start as a runner on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange at age 19 and his experiences working as a stock broker and on trading desks. He founded OptionSIZZLE in 2008 to share unusual options activity with individual investors. However, he soon faced a lawsuit from another firm providing similar information, though the case was later settled out of court. Despite challenges, OptionSIZZLE has now been operating for nearly six years and continues to help investors learn options trading strategies.
The Truth About Unusual Options Trading Activity!Joshua Belanger
Ladies and gentlemen, I’ve got some good news and some bad. You see, there are a lot of investors out there that feel that stock market is rigged…and that the little guy has no chance of succeeding.
What I’m about to share with you might be disturbing…and possibly strengthen those beliefs.
YOUR FREE TRADING SYSTEM: http://www.netpicks.com/tjgiveaway1
The way risk is handled by Van Tharp, as I’m sure many of you will already know, is by expectancy. Expectancy is basically your average trade in terms of your initial risk. So if your initial risk on a trade is $500 and the trade goes on to make $1,000, the trade is said to have made a 2R profit. If initial risk is $300 and you lose $450, you’ve lost 1.5R.
The way I see this is that it’s a very good way to compare the quality of trades where the specific $ amounts don’t always align particularly well and it gives you a better idea of what you should expect to make or lose on each trade you take. In my opinion, this analysis is particularly well-suited to people trading across a broader range of products such as a portfolio of stocks and this is how my chance conversation began.
Read more: http://www.netpicks.com/do-you-make-this-huge-trading-mistake/
How To Successfully Use Option Volatility To Trade Binary EventsJoshua Belanger
Contrary to popular investing belief and outdated content, volatility creates opportunities… especially in the options market.
In How To Profit From Option Volatility, I discussed how options theory differs from practice…and how implied volatility plays a factor in that.
One of the points touched in that article, was how uncertainty drives option volatility higher. Sometimes this elevated options volatility is warranted…but many times it’s not.
For example, I know that drug stocks tend to have very high implied volatility levels…however, I also know that they can move a lot (in either direction)…making it hard to justify ever shorting premium in these names.
On September 12th, 2014, there was 20 times usual options volume in Avinir Pharmaceuticals Inc (AVNR). The 30 day implied volatility jumped from 91.9% to 99.19% when the stock was trading around $6.74. The options market was implying around a 29% move in a month.
Secured Options - Cramer's 25 Rules for InvestingSecuredoptions
The document provides advice on investing strategies and rules based on the author's experience as an investor and hedge fund manager. Some of the key points made in the document include:
- Expect corrections in the market and be prepared rather than shocked by them.
- Don't forget about bonds as an important part of the overall investment landscape.
- Don't hold onto poorly performing "dog" stocks with fading prospects; cut losses when needed.
- Manage risk by diversifying across sectors to avoid being overly exposed to one underperforming sector.
Stock trading tips on hot stocks to buy now, stock market strategy, picking hot stocks, picking penny stocks, and how to buy cheap stocks. From “How to Find a Home Run Stock” and “How to Pick Hot Reverse Merger Penny Stocks” and also “How the Shorts Raid Your Stock, Destroy Your Company and What to Do About It” all by John Lux.
This document is a table of contents for a book about penny stocks. It outlines 14 chapters that will discuss various topics related to penny stocks, including the basics of stocks and options, different types of stocks, causes of stock price fluctuations, strategies for finding the best penny stock investments, trading rules, and ways to avoid penny stock scams. It also includes two free bonuses related to penny stock alerts and trading.
Cashflow secrets how we generate 6% per month with minimum risk! Duane Cunningham
This document provides an overview of selling options to generate income. It uses an example of selling options to buy watermelons to illustrate the concept. Selling options provides leverage, as controlling $1 of an asset only requires investing 10 cents. Most options expire worthless, benefiting the seller. The document outlines upcoming lessons that will discuss how time decay benefits option sellers, strategies for profiting from different price movements, managing risk, and generating steady income from options.
The document details the career journey of Joshua Belanger, founder of OptionSIZZLE, in the options trading industry. It describes how he got his start as a runner on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange at age 19 and his experiences working as a stock broker and on trading desks. He founded OptionSIZZLE in 2008 to share unusual options activity with individual investors. However, he soon faced a lawsuit from another firm providing similar information, though the case was later settled out of court. Despite challenges, OptionSIZZLE has now been operating for nearly six years and continues to help investors learn options trading strategies.
Why I Only Follow Those Who Have Skin In The GameJoshua Belanger
The document discusses unusual options activity as an indicator for identifying potential stock movements. It describes how analyzing large options trades, especially those that are opening new positions, can provide insight into how institutional investors and hedge funds are positioning themselves. A recent example is given of a large put purchase on Con Edison stock that preceded a downgrade and share price decline. While the reasons behind such trades can be difficult to determine, examining catalysts like news, charts, and earnings dates can provide clues to help investors incorporate unusual options activity into their research process.
SIZZLE Mailbag No.1 Unusual Options Activity Part IJoshua Belanger
Not sure if you’ve heard, but I’ve been asking members of the OptionSIZZLE community to send me their hard-hitting questions pertaining to options. Let’s face it, many of us our going through some of the same issues when it comes to options investing.
With that said, I thought by sharing these responses with you here, we all could get something out of it.
Let’s get started with the first question.
Stock trading strategy - mind of a successful traderPractice of Law
Stock trading tips on hot stocks to buy now, stock market strategy, picking hot stocks, picking penny stocks, and how to buy cheap stocks. From “How to Find a Home Run Stock” and “How to Pick Hot Reverse Merger Penny Stocks” and also “How the Shorts Raid Your Stock, Destroy Your Company and What to Do About It” all by John Lux.
How Much Money Do You Need To Get Started Trading Options?Joshua Belanger
You see, ever since I started OptionSIZZLE.com back in 2008, a week doesn’t pass by where I receive emails from small investors who want to get involved with options…hoping to have their own TRGP success story.
Now, I understand that we all have to start somewhere, however, trading is very difficult and there is a learning curve involved.
Why you keep losing money following trade ideasMuhammad Waqas
1) Following trade ideas from options activity services on social media often results in losses because investors receive the information too late and chase trades when implied volatility is already high.
2) An example is described of a large call option purchase in Green Coffee Company that caused the stock and option prices to rise quickly. Investors who received the information late paid 35% more for the options.
3) For trades identified through unusual options activity, investors need to act quickly at similar prices to the initial trades, have low commissions, and consider alternative positions if they cannot enter at a good price due to volatility increases caused by the early trades.
Who else wants to put themselves through an exclusiveRolando888
The document advertises an exclusive training program for commodity option trading developed by an ex-trader. It claims the program can transform trades into profits while minimizing risks. It criticizes most trading information as useless and overpriced. It promotes a two-part system focusing on scale trading and delta neutral calendar spreads to trade without worrying about market direction or time decay. It offers access to the training program, including a manual and software, for $87.
This document provides an introduction to a course on technical analysis and professional stock trading. It discusses that the course will teach how to determine market trends, forecast price targets and durations, and successfully day trade. It positions technical analysis as the focus, looking at price and volume data as reflecting all known information, rather than fundamentals. The document contrasts technical analysis and speculation, which can be professionally practiced, with gambling and fundamental analysis. It also references the influential trader W.D. Gann and promises the course will transmit his forecasting methods.
This document provides an introduction to Jesse Livermore, considered one of the greatest stock market speculators of the early 20th century. It describes how he has studied global economic conditions and stock markets for over 40 years. The author had the privilege of knowing some of the great speculators of the time and considers Livermore the greatest since the turn of the century due to his intellectual scope and natural aptitude. Livermore then reveals some of his rules and methods for market analysis and speculation, which he developed over decades of experience, in this book - a surprising move for a top speculator.
This document provides an overview of penny stocks and strategies for trading them successfully. It includes 14 chapters that cover topics such as the basics of stocks and options, different types of stocks, causes of stock price fluctuations, how to find the best penny stock investments, secrets to making a profit, and how to avoid penny stock scams. The goal of the document is to educate readers on strategies and secrets for trading penny stocks to maximize returns while managing risk.
Our full service stockbroking advisory solutions are designed to help investors maximise investment performance and effectively manage their portfolio and exposure
Wealth Management
A partnership between you and your adviser to understand your requirements, to determine an investment strategy, and to construct and manage a modelled investment portfolio
1. The document provides advice on how to predict share market prices by gaining a basic understanding of how the stock market works and the various factors that influence price fluctuations.
2. It explains that the stock market is an adversarial system where millions of investors hold opposing views, and various political, economic, and social factors can cause prices to rise or fall.
3. Predicting prices requires understanding how supply and demand, investor sentiment, world events, and other complications variables impact company valuations and trading activity.
Dave Landry has written a book on swing trading over a decade ago during the bull market. Since then, markets have experienced both a bull and bear phase. While the patterns from his first book still work, Landry notes some important changes in how they need to be applied given changing market conditions. Specifically, moves now take more time to develop and require more patience from traders. Landry also discusses how his own approach has matured, focusing more on longer-term trends and giving positions more room to develop rather than chasing short-term moves. Overall, the summary emphasizes that while the core patterns still work for swing trading, both the markets and Landry's own approach have evolved somewhat, requiring adjustments to their application.
This document introduces the topic of money management in trading and addresses some common questions about it. It explains that proper money management is important because it can turn average returns into large profits over time through compounding. Specifically, it shows how $100,000 in profits over 5 years using money management could grow to $1 million. It then defines what money management is, focusing on how much of an account's equity to risk on each trade, and distinguishes it from related but separate concepts like trade management and pyramiding. The goal is to convince readers that learning money management can be highly valuable by maximizing profits over the long run.
This document provides trading tips and rules for success from Commodity Trading Research. It outlines several common bad habits traders experience like holding losing positions too long, selling winners too early, trading too frequently without profits. It then presents six essential rules for traders, including being selective in trades and only taking those that match your plan, setting price limits to admit mistakes, accepting you will be wrong sometimes, having profit-taking plans, trading with trends not trying to pick tops and bottoms, and not becoming emotionally attached to positions. The document emphasizes the importance of discipline and risk assessment in long-term trading success.
This document provides trading tips and rules for successful commodity trading from Commodity Trading Research. It outlines several common bad habits traders engage in, such as holding losing positions too long, trading too frequently, and becoming emotionally attached to positions. It then presents six essential rules for traders, including being selective in trades and having predefined price levels for admitting mistakes and taking profits. The document emphasizes the importance of discipline, maintaining a balanced attitude, and always considering potential losses over hoped for gains.
This document provides 10 investing rules and lessons based on the author's experience:
1. Do not get greedy and sell some of your winners, as the author did not sell some of their Nvidia position and it cost them.
2. Paying taxes on investment gains is inevitable, so don't avoid selling just to avoid taxes.
3. When building a position, don't buy it all at once due to the risk of catching a falling knife. Scale in over time.
4. Look for great companies with broken stock prices, not broken companies, as the stock price will follow the improving fundamentals.
5. Diversification provides protection from sector or company-specific risks and
YOUR FREE TRADING SYSTEM: http://www.netpicks.com/tjgiveaway1
Throughout my relationship with Netpicks, I have communicated with many traders and those who entertain visions of becoming a profitable trader. What is quite staggering is the number of people who are not equipped for the road leading to trading success.
What do I mean by equipped for trading?
It’s not that I think I am an excellent judge of potential but it’s what people say (or don’t say) that tips you off that trading is probably not for them.
Read more: http://www.netpicks.com/4-areas-you-must-cover/
The document discusses developing the conviction to hold winning stock investments for the long term in order to achieve significant returns. It argues that discipline is required to hold investments through periods where the stock price stagnates or consolidates, and that the biggest gains come from allowing winners to run. Maintaining thorough knowledge of a company's business through ongoing due diligence is key to having the conviction to ignore price fluctuations and hold on to strong performers. Selling based only on changes to the underlying business fundamentals, not arbitrary price targets, is advised. Patience is important, as multi-bagger returns often materialize over several years rather than quickly.
This document provides an introduction to options trading. It begins by promising to make options clear and simple to understand. It then discusses how options trading has grown enormously in recent decades as more traders have sought ways to hedge risk and generate income. The document outlines some basic options terminology and strategies to get readers started in understanding options. It emphasizes that getting approved for options trading is straightforward and aims to remove fears about the paperwork involved.
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Why I Only Follow Those Who Have Skin In The GameJoshua Belanger
The document discusses unusual options activity as an indicator for identifying potential stock movements. It describes how analyzing large options trades, especially those that are opening new positions, can provide insight into how institutional investors and hedge funds are positioning themselves. A recent example is given of a large put purchase on Con Edison stock that preceded a downgrade and share price decline. While the reasons behind such trades can be difficult to determine, examining catalysts like news, charts, and earnings dates can provide clues to help investors incorporate unusual options activity into their research process.
SIZZLE Mailbag No.1 Unusual Options Activity Part IJoshua Belanger
Not sure if you’ve heard, but I’ve been asking members of the OptionSIZZLE community to send me their hard-hitting questions pertaining to options. Let’s face it, many of us our going through some of the same issues when it comes to options investing.
With that said, I thought by sharing these responses with you here, we all could get something out of it.
Let’s get started with the first question.
Stock trading strategy - mind of a successful traderPractice of Law
Stock trading tips on hot stocks to buy now, stock market strategy, picking hot stocks, picking penny stocks, and how to buy cheap stocks. From “How to Find a Home Run Stock” and “How to Pick Hot Reverse Merger Penny Stocks” and also “How the Shorts Raid Your Stock, Destroy Your Company and What to Do About It” all by John Lux.
How Much Money Do You Need To Get Started Trading Options?Joshua Belanger
You see, ever since I started OptionSIZZLE.com back in 2008, a week doesn’t pass by where I receive emails from small investors who want to get involved with options…hoping to have their own TRGP success story.
Now, I understand that we all have to start somewhere, however, trading is very difficult and there is a learning curve involved.
Why you keep losing money following trade ideasMuhammad Waqas
1) Following trade ideas from options activity services on social media often results in losses because investors receive the information too late and chase trades when implied volatility is already high.
2) An example is described of a large call option purchase in Green Coffee Company that caused the stock and option prices to rise quickly. Investors who received the information late paid 35% more for the options.
3) For trades identified through unusual options activity, investors need to act quickly at similar prices to the initial trades, have low commissions, and consider alternative positions if they cannot enter at a good price due to volatility increases caused by the early trades.
Who else wants to put themselves through an exclusiveRolando888
The document advertises an exclusive training program for commodity option trading developed by an ex-trader. It claims the program can transform trades into profits while minimizing risks. It criticizes most trading information as useless and overpriced. It promotes a two-part system focusing on scale trading and delta neutral calendar spreads to trade without worrying about market direction or time decay. It offers access to the training program, including a manual and software, for $87.
This document provides an introduction to a course on technical analysis and professional stock trading. It discusses that the course will teach how to determine market trends, forecast price targets and durations, and successfully day trade. It positions technical analysis as the focus, looking at price and volume data as reflecting all known information, rather than fundamentals. The document contrasts technical analysis and speculation, which can be professionally practiced, with gambling and fundamental analysis. It also references the influential trader W.D. Gann and promises the course will transmit his forecasting methods.
This document provides an introduction to Jesse Livermore, considered one of the greatest stock market speculators of the early 20th century. It describes how he has studied global economic conditions and stock markets for over 40 years. The author had the privilege of knowing some of the great speculators of the time and considers Livermore the greatest since the turn of the century due to his intellectual scope and natural aptitude. Livermore then reveals some of his rules and methods for market analysis and speculation, which he developed over decades of experience, in this book - a surprising move for a top speculator.
This document provides an overview of penny stocks and strategies for trading them successfully. It includes 14 chapters that cover topics such as the basics of stocks and options, different types of stocks, causes of stock price fluctuations, how to find the best penny stock investments, secrets to making a profit, and how to avoid penny stock scams. The goal of the document is to educate readers on strategies and secrets for trading penny stocks to maximize returns while managing risk.
Our full service stockbroking advisory solutions are designed to help investors maximise investment performance and effectively manage their portfolio and exposure
Wealth Management
A partnership between you and your adviser to understand your requirements, to determine an investment strategy, and to construct and manage a modelled investment portfolio
1. The document provides advice on how to predict share market prices by gaining a basic understanding of how the stock market works and the various factors that influence price fluctuations.
2. It explains that the stock market is an adversarial system where millions of investors hold opposing views, and various political, economic, and social factors can cause prices to rise or fall.
3. Predicting prices requires understanding how supply and demand, investor sentiment, world events, and other complications variables impact company valuations and trading activity.
Dave Landry has written a book on swing trading over a decade ago during the bull market. Since then, markets have experienced both a bull and bear phase. While the patterns from his first book still work, Landry notes some important changes in how they need to be applied given changing market conditions. Specifically, moves now take more time to develop and require more patience from traders. Landry also discusses how his own approach has matured, focusing more on longer-term trends and giving positions more room to develop rather than chasing short-term moves. Overall, the summary emphasizes that while the core patterns still work for swing trading, both the markets and Landry's own approach have evolved somewhat, requiring adjustments to their application.
This document introduces the topic of money management in trading and addresses some common questions about it. It explains that proper money management is important because it can turn average returns into large profits over time through compounding. Specifically, it shows how $100,000 in profits over 5 years using money management could grow to $1 million. It then defines what money management is, focusing on how much of an account's equity to risk on each trade, and distinguishes it from related but separate concepts like trade management and pyramiding. The goal is to convince readers that learning money management can be highly valuable by maximizing profits over the long run.
This document provides trading tips and rules for success from Commodity Trading Research. It outlines several common bad habits traders experience like holding losing positions too long, selling winners too early, trading too frequently without profits. It then presents six essential rules for traders, including being selective in trades and only taking those that match your plan, setting price limits to admit mistakes, accepting you will be wrong sometimes, having profit-taking plans, trading with trends not trying to pick tops and bottoms, and not becoming emotionally attached to positions. The document emphasizes the importance of discipline and risk assessment in long-term trading success.
This document provides trading tips and rules for successful commodity trading from Commodity Trading Research. It outlines several common bad habits traders engage in, such as holding losing positions too long, trading too frequently, and becoming emotionally attached to positions. It then presents six essential rules for traders, including being selective in trades and having predefined price levels for admitting mistakes and taking profits. The document emphasizes the importance of discipline, maintaining a balanced attitude, and always considering potential losses over hoped for gains.
This document provides 10 investing rules and lessons based on the author's experience:
1. Do not get greedy and sell some of your winners, as the author did not sell some of their Nvidia position and it cost them.
2. Paying taxes on investment gains is inevitable, so don't avoid selling just to avoid taxes.
3. When building a position, don't buy it all at once due to the risk of catching a falling knife. Scale in over time.
4. Look for great companies with broken stock prices, not broken companies, as the stock price will follow the improving fundamentals.
5. Diversification provides protection from sector or company-specific risks and
YOUR FREE TRADING SYSTEM: http://www.netpicks.com/tjgiveaway1
Throughout my relationship with Netpicks, I have communicated with many traders and those who entertain visions of becoming a profitable trader. What is quite staggering is the number of people who are not equipped for the road leading to trading success.
What do I mean by equipped for trading?
It’s not that I think I am an excellent judge of potential but it’s what people say (or don’t say) that tips you off that trading is probably not for them.
Read more: http://www.netpicks.com/4-areas-you-must-cover/
The document discusses developing the conviction to hold winning stock investments for the long term in order to achieve significant returns. It argues that discipline is required to hold investments through periods where the stock price stagnates or consolidates, and that the biggest gains come from allowing winners to run. Maintaining thorough knowledge of a company's business through ongoing due diligence is key to having the conviction to ignore price fluctuations and hold on to strong performers. Selling based only on changes to the underlying business fundamentals, not arbitrary price targets, is advised. Patience is important, as multi-bagger returns often materialize over several years rather than quickly.
This document provides an introduction to options trading. It begins by promising to make options clear and simple to understand. It then discusses how options trading has grown enormously in recent decades as more traders have sought ways to hedge risk and generate income. The document outlines some basic options terminology and strategies to get readers started in understanding options. It emphasizes that getting approved for options trading is straightforward and aims to remove fears about the paperwork involved.
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2. I’ve said this before, I’ll say it again, there are
literally hundreds of thousands of option orders
that are reported every trading day. The
majority of the option volume conducted is
done by large institutions–who have the
potential to move a stock with their order flow.
3. Not only that, institutional option flow is highly
regarded as informed traders, a great deal of
interest is grown when an aggressive bet is
made, followed by speculation on why they put
so much money behind their idea.
4. Now, If you can imagine millions of orders being
tracked every day, you can see how there could
be a lot of noise in between… even though I
believe following the transparency of option
market trades provides excellent signals for
potential entries.
5. However, with that said, making investment
decisions simply based off large order flow or
unusual options volume is not enough. You’ve
got to put the order flow into context…spotting
unusual options activity is just the first step.
6. A large option order could be done for a number
of different reasons, sometimes they can even
look deceptive. For the most part, options can
be used to hedge an existing position or for
speculation. The SIZZLE Method attempts to
dissect unusual option activity in order to
generate trade ideas and structure trades.
7. Throughout the weekday, I’ll post some of the
interesting orders on our Twitter page. These
posts are not meant to be investment advice or
recommendations…just observations or ideas on
how to better structure a trade for greater
chance of making a profit.
8. Here’s an example of activity I posted for those
that follow me on Twitter. On August 13, 2014, I
posted a tweet when I noticed very large buyers
of calls coming in the September 90 strike.
9.
10. With the calls being bought in massive volume,
it seemed they were making a directional bet
that shares of Marathon Petroleum Corporation
(MPC) might be above $90 a share at expiration
on September 19th.
11. However, I’ve noticed that some option
investors do take them as such. I even wrote an
article about this: Why You Keep Losing Money
Following Trade Ideas.
12. Whether it’s me posting or someone else who
you respect…you’ve got to roll up your sleeves
and do some more work before committing hard
earned money to a trade.
13. I’ve been on Twitter since 2008, On thing I have
noticed is there a lot of people that just like to
post things that have no skin in the game. That
is why I focus on empowering YOU to be
dependent on your analysis. I emphasize this
more in, “What’s Your One Best Trade Idea Right
Now?”
14. In the SIZZLE Method, I stress that once you find
an unusual options trade, you’ve got to hone in
with your inner detective. The idea is to try to
get into the smart money’s shoes and figure out
what they’re implying by their trades.
16. • Is this a stock replacement ahead of earnings?
• Is there M&A chatter surrounding the stock?
• Could there be a government (domestic or
foreign) law or ruling coming out that could
affect the stock?
17. • Is there chatter that an activist investor might
be involved in the stock?
• Does the stock have an investors conference or
analyst day coming up?
• Have you seen unusual options activity in the
whole sector or just this stock (sector
rotation)?
18. • If it’s a drug company, do they have an FDA
announcement pending?
• Recently, has there been negative or positive
news said about the stock from a research
firm, hedge fund or other influential
establishment?
19. • Is this order a potential hedge against a stock
position?
• Does this stock correlate with the S&P 500?
20. Now, I could keep going…but I think you get the
picture. After trying to figure out the why
(sometimes you will never figure out it, those
are usually the unethical trades), I’ll then look at
liquidity.
21. Unless I can figure out what the catalyst is, I’ll
look to trade options on stocks that have
competitive bid/ask spreads. If you’re not sure
what that is, check out: What Are The Best
Stocks To Trade Weekly Options?
22. After that, I’ll check out my thinkorswim
platform and look at the option volatility levels,
are premiums relatively rich or cheap?
23. For example, if I see a large block of calls sold
near the stock price is near 52 week implied
volatility highs when volume is higher than open
interest…I’m not automatically thinking that it’s
a bearish trade…but it could be a covered call or
some type of volatility play.
24. Heres another one, a large trader buys calls
when the stock is selling off when open interest
is higher than the volume…in this case, I would
have to look back at previous order flow to see if
they are closing out a short call position vs.
assuming it’s just a bullish play.
25. Even after all that work…
I still have to compare this opportunity with the
others I’ve seen that day. I’m not sure about
you, but I don’t have unlimited amounts of
capital in my trading account. If I allocate money
in one trade that leaves me with less cash for
another opportunity.
26. Not only that, if it’s a directional trade, I’ve got
to ask myself if I want to be long or short a stock
given the current market conditions. This means
checking out where the S&P 500 and CBOE
Volatility Index (VIX) stand.
27. For example, if you’ve got a long bias, how are
your options going to perform if there are
geopolitical tensions overseas and the S&P 500
sells off? Or if the market rips higher, will your
long bias options follow?
28. Furthermore, if I establish a market neutral,
short premium position, I’ve got to make sure
that my delta’s are fairly balanced so I don’t
have too much directional exposure.
29. In addition, it’s important identify the type of
position that the smart money established. For
example, are they playing for a near term
event…in this case, we’d see weekly options
heavily traded. Furthermore, if we see long-dated
options traded, I might assume that it’s a
position trade or investment.
30. If you’re in a long term trade….
How do you feel about having your capital tied
up for a while? On 6/30, Dollar General (DG)
saw massive call buying in the November 62.5
call strike…over 61k contracts for $2.35…well,
you would have had to of waited till 8/18 to get
finally get paid on those calls when they traded
over $4 per contract.
31. Bottom line, there’s got to be some thought put
into your trades besides copying a large unusual
options trade. I know this…but I forget
sometimes that not everyone does.
32.
33. I posted that on 8/18, when Solar City was
trading around $72.50 a share. Now, SCTY trades
around 30k contracts a day…and on 8/18 it
traded around 18.5k contracts. With that said,
there wasn’t unusual options activity in
SCTY…however, I felt that it was a pretty odd
order given how far OTM it was and the amount
of time left on the contract…so I posted it on our
Twitter stream.
34. Why was this interesting?
Well, this is a pretty volatile stock in a volatile
sector…it has the potential to run for no rhyme
or reason. Second, the order was a type of
order called an option sweep, which is pretty
aggressive. In any event, I would categorize it as
a lottery ticket…a very low probability trade.
35. This not the type of trade I would do if I had a
small account. Sure, $30 a contract is cheap…but
they’re cheap for a reason…and if you’re trying
to build a small account up…these are the types
of trades you should avoid.
36. Think about it in poker terms. If you’re the small
stack at the table, your best bet is to only play
when you’re dealt a premium hand. The big
stack at the table can afford to play all types of
hands because they can afford to gamble a little.
37. It’s sort of the same idea in option trading…if
you’re the small stack, always try to put on
trades that have a high probability of success.
38. I actually received an email from a follower who
mentioned they took the SCTY trade I tweeted
about. I probably should have added in that
tweet that the order was a lottery ticket. I really
felt like a jackass after receiving that email.
39. You see, that wasn’t a trade I would have
chased… but how could anyone know that from
reading that tweet?
40. Easy, they couldn’t have…and because of that I
feel that i need to take ownership of it.
41. I know there are a lot of people out there
posting 10-15 tweets a day about unusual
options activity orders. When one of them hits,
they are the first to let you know that they
spotted the big winner. In my case, I would
rather focus on quality vs. quantity…sometimes
my analysis is wrong and I end up losing money
on my ideas.
42. However, I know if I play the numbers game with
my strategy, I’ll end up being net profitable.
43. Twitter, Facebook, Google Plus and email are all
ways that I communicate with my clients &
followers and I am grateful for these platforms.
However, my posts on social media should not
be taken as trade recommendations.
44. With that said, I understand that there option
investors out there who are interested in my
ideas and would like to learn more about my
trading style ( that goes beyond 140 characters).
That’s why in the coming weeks I’ll be launching
a service that focuses on actionable ideas along
with how to structure trades to potentially profit
off them using my SIZZLE Method.
45. It’s going to be awesome for those who not only
want option trades but also want to interact,
learn and ask questions about options investing.
I promise to have more details out to you as
soon as I get them.
46. Now, if you’re looking for a primer and are
looking for excellent signals for potential entries,
check out the SIZZLE METHOD REPORT. I’m
going to be offering those that purchased the
report beta access first when we launch the
service.
47. By the way, have you ever made a trade based
off unusual options activity that you got from a
social media post and lost money? If so, I’d love
to hear your thoughts, I’ll be hanging out in the
comments section below.
48. Join For Free To Receive My Ideas & Market Commentary I Only
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