The ProcessSelection of the research questionIdentification of the methodology to answer that questionResearchDefinition, Description and AnalysisExplanation and Prediction Good questionsAnswer a puzzleTake part in a debateAdd to the “tree of knowledge”For this class, they should have a comparative dimension“Is” versus “ought” questions The Comparative method (Review Ch. 1)Inductive reasoningGoing from the bottom up. Using one case to develop ideas. “Why has Country X slide toward state failure?” Still need to test theoriesDeductive reasoningGoing from the top down. Using logic to generate a number of explanations. “What explains democratization in Asia?” Still need to test theories Finding patterns or connectionsDependent variable OutcomeIndependent variable Cause (potential) Q. Why did protests turn violent? Q. What makes some democracies stable? CorrelationsCorrelations are associations or a relationship between variablesPositiveNegative Plotting the correlation shows a relationship exists but it does not necessarily explain the cause. (The “why” question) Correlation and causationTo show “causation” we first need to show that a correlation existsCorrelations are necessary but not sufficient to prove causationProblems with spurious correlations Hierarchy of UnderstandingWorld views/FrameworksTheories Generalizations, explanations and predictionsConceptsFacts/Raw data Hypothesis Assumptions to be tested against the evidenceIt’s your answer to the research question(s) you posed. Descriptive hypothesis (propose a “fact”, test to see if it exists. Need evidence to confirm)Democracy has broad support in RussiaExplanatory hypothesis (seek to explain the fact)Russians support democracy because of their past experience with communism Hypotheses have to be testableA nonfalsifiable hypothesisWe won because God is on our sideFallacy of composition All Americans are wealthyTautologyArmed conflict caused the civil warReductivism One cause can explain everythingFalse InferenceInfering too much from the data you have Sources for finding hypotheses or where do I get my argument?Deduction (literature, logic)Induction (observations, facts)Grounded theory generalize from cases Both need to be tested Methodology QuantitativeQualitative Comparative PoliticsStructured focused comparison Steps in hypothesis testing1. Define key terms (wealth, elite)2. Identify the Variables (independent/dependent)3. Specify the expectations of the hypothesis. (if….then)4. Collect and examine the evidence5. Draw conclusions from the evidence Example Puzzle: Has the creation of European institutions and policies led to a shift toward a “European” identity in member states? Descriptive hypothesis…Explanatory hypothesis …Identify variables (I and D) institutions/identitySpecify expectationsCollect and examine evidenceAnalyze evidence Who Governs?, Robert DahlEconomic power confers political power Tes.