The Price Tag of Being Young - NGC Report August 2016
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This report quantifies the cost of climate change to Millennials and their Children , compared to a world without climate Change . The Climate Change Costs are compared to other significant economic burdens millennials will face over the course of a lifetime , including student debt , child care , stagnant wages and lack of good jobs
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The Price Tag of Being Young - NGC Report August 2016
- 1. Climate Change and Millennials’ Economic Future THEPRICETAGOF BEINGYOUNG August2016
- 3. KEY FINDINGS INTRODUCTION I. MILLENNIALS’ HIGH COSTS IN THE NEW INEQUALITY ECONOMY A.TheBiggestGenerationGets theRawestDeal B.HigherEducationandStudentDebt C.PaidParentalLeaveandChild CareNeeds D.TheStruggletoFindJobs 1.Unemploymentand Underemployment 2.StagnantWages E.WealthandFinancialSecurity II. MILLENNIALS’ CLIMATE COSTS: THE HIDDEN PENALTY OF INACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE III. FROM COSTS TO OPPORTUNITY A.ReducingGHGEmissions= Investment=JobsfortheFuture B.BenefitsofaCleanEnergyEconomy C.TargetingofInvestmentCan EnlargeImpacts IV. WINNING ON CLIMATE: YOUNG VOTERS APPENDIX END NOTES CONTENTS
- 4. Thisreportquantifiesthecostofclimatechangeto millennialsandtheirchildren,comparedtoaworld withoutclimatechange.Theclimatechangecosts arecomparedtoothersignificanteconomicburdens millennialswillfaceoverthecourseoftheirlifetime, includingstudentdebt,childcare,stagnantwages,and thelackofgoodjobs.Thekeyfindingsofthisanalysis include: yy Withoutactiononclimatechange,a 21-year-oldintheclassof2015earninga medianincomewilllose$126,000inlifetime income,and$187,000inwealth*. yy Withoutactiononclimatechange,a 21-year-oldearningamedianincomewill lose$100,000inlifetimeincome,and $142,000inwealth. yy Forthechildrenofmillennials,thelossesfrom climatechangewillbedrasticallygreater. »» Achildbornin2015withmedianearnings willlose$357,000inlifetimeincomeand $581,000inwealth. »» Achildbornin2015withmedianearnings andacollegedegreewilllose$467,000in lifetimeincome,and$764,000inwealth. yy Withoutactiononclimatechange,the millennialgenerationasawholewilllose nearly$8.8trillioninlifetimeincome. yy Theeconomiclossescausedbyclimate changearesubstantiallygreaterthanthe damagesofothereconomicchallenges. »» Studentdebtcoststhemedian- earningcollege-educatedindividual approximately$113,000inlostwealth overalifetime,duetoreducedsavings forretirementandhomeownership. »» LossesfromtheGreatRecessioncost themedian-earningcollege-educated household$112,000. Wemustactquicklytoaddressclimatechange becausetheimpactsareoccurringnowfasterand strongerthanpredicted: yy July2016wasthe15thstraightmonthof record-breakingheat.1 yy The21stcenturyhasseen15ofthe16 hottestyearsonrecord.2 yy Fortheeighthconsecutiveyear,extreme weatherhascostU.S.taxpayersover$10billion.3 yy SealevelsarerisingandinMiami,Norfolk, andothercoastalcities,tidalfloodingis becomingthenorm–evenondayswithout storms. yy Drierandlongerdroughtsarethreatening ourpublichealthandcrops. *Wecalculatewealthaslong-termsavingsiflostincomeduetoclimatechangeweretobeinvestedinaconservative portfolioofstocksandbondsreturning3.5percentannually. KEY FINDINGS 4 ThePriceTagofBeingYoung:ClimateChangeandMillennials’EconomicFuture
- 5. Wemusttransitiontoa100percentcleanenergyeconomy inordertoavoidthedevastatingeconomicimpactsofclimate changedetailedinthisreport.Andwemustcapitalizeon thesignificanteconomicdrivercleanenergycanbefortheU.S. economy.AccordingtoarecentstudyfromICFInternational4 , ifwetransitiontoacleanenergyeconomyby2050,inthat yearwewill: yyCreateupto 2 MILLION NEW JOBS yyBoostoureconomyby $290 BILLION yyIncreasehouseholddisposable incomeby $650 yySavefamilies $41 BILLION onenergybills
- 7. Climatechangewillhaveasignificantimpacton millennials’householdincomesandwealth,with rapidlyworseningeffectsbymid-century,asthe youngestmillennialsreachtheirpeakearningyears. Inthisreport,weinvestigatetheseeconomiclossesfor millennialsandfuturegenerationsifwefailtoacton climatechange,comparedtoascenarioofnoclimate change.Ourstudyfindsthat: yy A21-year-oldcollegegraduateintheclassof 2015earningamedianincomewillloseover $126,000inincomeoverherlifetime,and $187,000inwealthiftheincomeweretobe savedandinvested. yy A21-year-oldcollegegraduateintheclassof 2015earningamedianincomewillloseover $100,000inincomeoverherlifetime,and $142,000inwealthiftheincomeweretobe savedandinvested. yy Forthechildrenofmillennials,thelosses fromclimatechangewillbedrastically greater. »» Amedian-earnerbornin2015willlose approximately$357,000inincome overherlifetime,andapproximately $581,000inwealthiftheincomewereto besavedandinvested. »» Amedian-earnerbornin2015who willgraduatefromcollegewilllose approximately$467,000inincome overherlifetime,andapproximately $764,000inwealthiftheincomewere tobesavedandinvested. yy Thelifetimeeconomiclossescausedby climatechangearesubstantiallygreater thanthenegativeimpactsofstudentdebt. »» Studentdebtcoststhemedian- earningcollege-educatedindividual approximately$113,000inlostwealth overalifetime,duetoreducedsavings forretirementandhomeownership. »» BecauseoftheGreatRecession,the median-earningcollege-educated householdlost$112,000inwealth. Youngpeopletodayareuniquelyexposedtotherisks, costs,anddevastationofclimatechangeonitscurrent path.Yet,theeconomicrisksarecompoundedeven furthersinceinactiononclimatechangemeansthat wearemissingoutonamajoropportunityformuch- needednewinvestmentandmillionsofnewjobs bytransitioningtocleanenergy.Properlytargeted, theseinvestmentscouldbeespeciallyimportant foryoungpeopleincommunitiesofcolor,whoare disproportionatelyexposedtothetoxicpollution andclimaterisksthatinevitablyariseinafossil- fueldriveneconomy.Additionally,forcommunities whoseeconomieshavebeendependentonthefossil fuelindustry,properinvestmentinajusttransition toacleanenergyeconomycouldleadtoanimportant economicrevitalization. Forthemillennialgeneration,today’sstatusquo onclimateandinequalityisnotonlyunjustbutit isalsounsustainable.Apowerful,principled,and deeplyAmericanwaytochangethestatusquo foryoungpeople,ourcountry,andourplanetisby demandingactionattheballotbox.Morethanany previousgeneration,millennialshavethepowerto chartabettercourseforthemselvesandforfuture generations—andthatstartswithvotingforleaders whowillmaketherightchoicesonthethingsthat mattermost,likeclimatechangeandinequality. 7
- 8. I. MILLENNIALS’HIGH COSTSINTHENEW INEQUALITYECONOMY THE BIGGEST GENERATION GETS THE RAWEST DEAL Weexaminetheeconomicchallengesandrising financialburdensfacingyoungpeople:student debt,childcare,jobsandstagnantwages,financial insecurity,andinactiononclimatechange.Wefind that,leftunaddressed,climatechangewillbring substantialadditionalcostsandincomelossestothe millennialgenerationandfuturegenerations,in essence,placingasocietalclimatepenaltyontheir incomeandwealth. Inalloftheseissueareas—butespeciallyfor climatechange—badpublicpolicies(including policyinaction)arethemaindriversofdamages formillennials;takentogether,theyadduptoa massivebetrayalofyoungpeoplebyourpolitical leaders,unfoldingoverthelastseveraldecadesand punctuatedbythefinancialcrashandeconomic slowdownsince2008. Millennials’arefacingthestingiesteconomyin threegenerations,andthemostunequaleconomyin morethanacentury.Inmanykeyareasforenabling upwardmobilityandraisinglivingstandardsovera lifetime,ourpoliticalsystemislettingmillennials down.Intheremainderofthissection,weexamine fourcoreaspectsofthelargerinequalitycrisisthat aredisproportionatelyaffectingmillennials— evenwithouttakingintoaccountthedevastating consequencesofafailuretoaddressclimatechange. First,thereiscollegeaffordability.Gettingacollege education—anear-necessityforupwardmobility today—isincreasinglyunaffordable,leavingmost studentswithaheavyburdenofdebtfromcollege loans.Second,formillennialsraisingchildren,child carecostsarewreakinghavoconhouseholdbudgets andlimitingparents’abilitytomoveuptheladder 8 ThePriceTagofBeingYoung:ClimateChangeandMillennials’EconomicFuture
- 10. HIGHER EDUCATION AND STUDENT DEBT Whilecollegeisstillthesurestpathwaytoeconomic security,millennialsfaceahighereducationsystemin whichcostshaveskyrocketedandtheneedtoborrow forcollegeisever-increasing.Overallstudentdebtin theeconomyhasincreasedfromaround$260billion in2003tonearly$1.3trilliontoday.6 Whilemost studentswhograduatedintheearly1990sdidnottake ondebtfortheirdegree,sevenintenstudentsborrow today.Undergraduatestudentdebt,moreover,isnot takenonequitably—81percentofblackstudentsand 84percentoflower-incomestudentsborrowmore oftenandinhigheramountsthanwhitestudents (63percent),evenatpubliccollegesanduniversities (Figure01).7 Evenastheeconomyhasslowlyrecoveredfrom theGreatRecession,studentborrowersarefalling behindontheirpaymentsandthepercentageof studentloansindefaulthascontinuedtorise.8 Evenmoretroublingly,aroundone-thirdofstudent borrowersdropoutofcollege—includingfourinten blackstudentborrowers.Theproblemisparticularly pronouncedatfor-profitinstitutions,wheretwo- thirdsofblackandLatinostudentborrowersdropout offour-yeardegreeprograms.9 Evenforthosewho areabletomeettheirmonthlypayments,therisein studentdebtmeansthatmillennialsarestillentering theworkforcewithafinancialburdenthatother generationssimplydidnotendure. Younghouseholdswithnostudentloandebtare morelikelytoownhomesandhaveretirementand liquidassetsthatareconsiderablylargerthanthose householdsweigheddownbydebt.Householdswith acollegedegreeandnodebthavenearly$100,000in averageretirementsavings,whilecollege-educated householdswithdebthavelessthanhalfthat amount.10 Asnotedintheintroduction,Demoshas foundthatevenaveragelevelsofstudentloandebt mayresultinlifetimewealthlossesofover$100,000 forcollege-educatedindividuals earningamedian income.11 FIGURE01 BLACK AND LOW-INCOME STUDENTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BORROW FOR A BACHELOR'S DEGREE PUBLIC UNIVERSITY PRIVATE NON-PROFIT UNIVERSITY 0 20 40 60 80 100 TOTAL BLACK NEVER RECEIVED PELL WHITE HISPANIC RECEIVED PELL PERCENTAGEOFBACHELOR’SRECIPIENTS WITHDEBT,2012 64% 63% 81% 63% 46% 84% 74% 72% 86% 87% 60% 91% 10 ThePriceTagofBeingYoung:ClimateChangeandMillennials’EconomicFuture
- 11. PAID PARENTAL LEAVE AND CHILD CARE NEEDS Todaynearlyfouroutoftenyoungadultsage25-34 areraisingchildren,andmillennialsaretheparents ofmostnewbabiesbornintheUnitedStates.12 Yet millennialparentsfaceformidablechallengeswhen itcomestocaringfortheirchildren.Thisbegins immediatelyatbirth,whenmostparentslackpaid timeofftocareforanewbaby,whichonlycontinues withtheexorbitantcostofchildcare,thelackof publicpreschool,andthehighpricethatparents payfortakingtimeoutoftheworkforcetocarefor children.Although73percentofwomenage25-34are inthelaborforceand40percentofhouseholdswith childrenaresupportedbymothersastheprimary sourceofincomeforthefamily,oureconomyislargely structuredasifallfamiliesstillhadastay-at-home parentraisingchildren.13 Unlikenearlyeveryotherwealthydemocracy, theUnitedStatesoffersnoguaranteeofpaid timeoffforparentstocareforanewbaby.14 Whilesomeemployersvoluntarilyprovidepaid timetonewmothersandfathers,thesebenefits aredisproportionatelyofferedtohighly-paid professionals,leavingoutthemajorityofworking people.In2015,only12percentoffull-timeworkers age25-34hadaccesstopaidfamilyleavethrough theiremployers.15 Foryoungworkersemployedpart- time,just5percenthaveaccesstopaidfamilyleave. Furthermore,blackandLatino/aparentsareless likelythanwhiteparentstohaveaccesstopaidtime offforanewbaby. Asaresult,oneinfourmothersreportreturningto workwithintwoweeksofgivingbirth,despitethe potentialnegativehealthconsequencesformothers andinfantsalike.16 Andsomenewmothers– including26percentofworkingblackwomenhaving theirfirstchild,24percentofLatinasand21percent ofwhitewomen–reportquittingtheirjobsentirely inordertotakecareofanewbaby.17 Amongthesame group,6percentofblackwomen,8percentofLatinas and4percentofwhitewomensaytheiremployers firedthemaftertheirbabywasborn.18 Inordertoremainintheworkforce,parentsmust oftenpaytheexorbitantcostofchildcare.According totheresearchandadvocacygroupChildcare Aware,theaveragecostoffull-timecareforasingle infantincenter-basedcarerangesfrom$4,822a yearinMississippito$17,062inMassachusetts.19 Similarly,coststoplacea4-year-oldinachildcare provider’shomerangefrom$3,675inMississippi to$10,000inMassachusetts.Theexpensesaddup quickly:ChildcareAwareestimatesthatmarried couplesearningthemedianfamilyincomeintheir statewouldhavetospendbetween6.8percentand15 percentoftheirincomeoncenter-basedcarefortheir infantduringafullworkweek.Forsingleparents thecostscanbeevenmoreoverwhelming,withan averageannualcostofover40percentofthestate medianincomeforsinglemothersineverystate. Whilesomelow-andmoderate-incomefamilies receivepublicsubsidiestohelpdefraythecostofchild care,eligibilityforthisassistancevarieswidelyby state,andsomestateshavelongwaitingliststhat preventeligiblefamiliesfromaccessingchildcare. 11
- 12. THE STRUGGLE TO FIND GOOD JOBS UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNDEREMPLOYMENT TheGreatRecessioncouldnothavecomeataworse timeformillennials.20 Justasmanywereenteringthe jobmarketforthefirsttime,theeconomybottomed out,significantlyshrinkingthesupplyofjobsand shiftingmanyjobstopart-timehours. Thejobmarkethasslowlyimproved,butmany youngpeople(ages25-34)stillfacepersistent unemployment.Thisisespeciallytrueforyoung workersofcolor.Aroundoneinsevenyoungblack workerswereunemployedfor5weeksormorein 2014,despiteseveralyearsofeconomicrecovery(See Table1;notethatthisisworsethanthesamestatistic amongyoungwhiteworkersattheheightoftheGreat Recession). Indeed,theGreatRecessionhitmen, blackworkers,andthosewithoutcollegeexperience thehardest.Afullquarterofmillennialswithouta highschooldiplomawereunemployedformorethana monthattheheightoftherecession,andaboutonein sixremainsotoday(Table2). Evenformillennialswhocouldfindwork,manyhave beenforcedintopart-timeworkandoftenlow-wage work.Thenumberofpart-timeworkerswhowere seekingastable,full-timejobskyrocketedduring therecessionandremainswellabovethelevel experiencedbypreviousgenerations.In2014,seven yearsintotherecovery,morethan36percentofyoung part-timeworkerswereonlyworkingpart-time becausetheyeithercouldnotfindafull-timejobor theyexperiencedaforcedreductioninworkhours (Figure2). STAGNANT WAGES Thejobsmillennialsdofindoftenpaylessthanthe jobspreviousgenerationsofyoungpeopleenjoyed. Forthepastseveraldecades,wagesandincomesfor mostfamilieshaveremainedstubbornlystagnantor evendecreased.Theaverageyoungwhiteworker(age 25-34)earnsaboutthesameashiscounterpartfrom agenerationortwoago,whiletheaveragemillennial blackorLatinoworkerearnsslightlylessthantheir counterpartsinpreviousgenerations.Womenhave seenaboostinaverageearnings,whiletheaverage youngmaleworkerearnsover$7,000lessannually thanhewouldhavein1980(Table3). Whileacollegedegreehasprovidedabufferfor manyworkers,thosewithoutacollegedegreehave seenincomesdropdramatically.Today,although theaverageyoungworkerwithabachelor’sdegree makesslightlymorethanhisorhercounterpartdid agenerationortwoago,theaverageyoungworker withoutabachelor’sdegreeearnssignificantlyless. Workerswithsomecollegeorahighschooldiploma haveseentheiraverageincomesdropbynearly $6,000,andtheaverageworkerwithlessthanahigh schooldiplomanowearnssub-povertylevelwages (Table4). 12 ThePriceTagofBeingYoung:ClimateChangeandMillennials’EconomicFuture
- 13. TABLE01 YOUNG BLACK WORKERS FACE A PERSISTENT UNEMPLOYMENT CRISIS YEAR SHAREOFYOUNGWORKERSUNEMPLOYED5WEEKSORMORE White Black Hispanic/ Latino Asian American 1980 12.5% 24.4% 17.0% N/A 1984 11.8% 21.3% 17.3% N/A 1989 8.7% 19.1% 12.9% 9.2% 1994 9.2% 16.0% 12.2% 8.9% 1999 5.6% 9.8% 8.0% 6.1% 2004 6.9% 13.5% 8.3% 6.4% 2009 12.1% 18.5% 16.1% 11.1% 2014 6.7% 14.3% 9.4% 7.7% TABLE02 YOUNG WORKERS WITHOUT COLLEGE DEGREES FACE BLEAK EMPLOYMENT PROSPECTS YEAR PERCENTOFWORKERSUNEMPLOYEDFORFIVEWEEKSORMORE Lessthan HighSchool Diploma HighSchool Diploma SomeCollege Bachelor’s Degreeor Higher 1980 24.4% 15.4% 12.2% 7.3% 1984 24.1% 15.4% 10.1% 6.7% 1989 18.7% 11.6% 8.2% 4.5% 1994 18.1% 12.1% 8.6% 6.3% 1999 12.9% 7.2% 5.8% 3.6% 2004 11.3% 9.5% 8.0% 4.9% 2009 24.7% 17.7% 12.3% 7.9% 2014 15.5% 10.2% 9.4% 4.5% TABLE03 MEDIAN INCOME BY SEX AND RACE/ETHNICITY, WORKERS AGED 25-34 YEAR SEX RACE/ETHNICITY Men Women White Black Hispanic Asian/ Pacific Islander Other* 1980 $44,763 $25,891 $36,607 $28,768 $28,256 N/A $31,818 1985 $41,895 $26,454 $36,646 $26,785 $26,443 N/A $32,199 1990 $39,727 $27,324 $36,284 $26,327 $25,015 $35,953 $28,857 1995 $37,561 $27,392 $35,617 $26,440 $23,602 $34,602 $23,330 2000 $41,296 $31,687 $41,295 $31,384 $27,530 $42,396 $28,218 2005 $37,867 $30,359 $38,361 $29,128 $26,701 $42,479 $33,497 2010 $36,960 $31,609 $38,043 $27,774 $25,000 $40,217 $30,435 2014 $37,044 $30,036 $37,945 $26,035 $26,031 $40,047 $26,031 TABLE04 MEDIAN INCOME BY EDUCATION LEVEL, WORKERS AGED 25-34 YEAR EDUCATIONLEVEL LessthanHS Diploma HSDiploma Some college Bachelor’s Degreeor higer 1980 $23,420 $32,220 $36,156 $45,108 1985 $21,470 $30,850 $35,535 $47,699 1990 $19,773 $29,205 $36,280 $47,527 1995 $19,360 $27,996 $32,350 $46,698 2000 $20,923 $30,779 $35,892 $52,307 2005 $21,846 $29,131 $35,136 $48,608 2010 $18,478 $27,174 $32,609 $48,113 2014 $20,024 $26,241 $30,036 $49,063 Source:DemoscalculationsfromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey.“Young”workersdefined asages25-34. Source:DemoscalculationsfromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey.Incomelevelsareforallworkersandare in2015dollars.*“Other”includesAsianAmericansfrom1980-1986.AmericanIndiansareincludedin “other”becauseofsamplesizeconstraints. Source:DemoscalculationsfromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey.Income levelsareforallworkersandarein2015dollars. Source:DemoscalculationsfromtheCurrentPopulationSurvey.“Young”workersdefined asages25-34. 13
- 14. WEALTH AND FINANCIAL SECURITY Thefinancialsecurityofyounghouseholds—those headedbyapersonbetween25-40yearolds—has erodedinthepastgeneration,particularlyforyoung adultswithlowereducationlevels.21 Themedian wealthofyounghouseholdsdeclinedfrom$34,561 in1989to$20,135asof2013,a42percentdecline.At thesametime,largeracialwealthgapshavepersisted throughtheoveralldecline.Thewealthdeclinewas concentratedamongyoungwhitehouseholds,who hadmuchmorewealthtoloseandsawtheirmedian wealthdeclinebyathirdto$34,163.Startingatmuch lowerlevelsofwealthduetoenslavement,landtheft, segregation,andcontinuingexclusionfromAmerica’s wealth-buildingpolicies,themedianwealthofyoung blackhouseholdsincreasedslightlysince1989, to$3,625.Latinohouseholds’medianwealthalso increasedslightly,to$10,195. Younghouseholdsofall educationlevelshaveseentheirwealthfall,butthe declinewasmostpronouncedforcollege-educated households,whohadmoretolose:themedianwealth ofyounghouseholdswithabachelor’sdegreeorhigher declinedby24percentoverthepastquartercentury andhouseholdswithsomecollegeoranassociate’s degreesawtheirwealthfallbymorethan60percent. Themajorreasonforthedeclineinthewealthofyoung householdswasthelargeincreaseintheamountof debttheycarried,mainlystudentdebt.Overall,young households’mediandebtincreasednearly75percent, from$38,682in1989to$67,115in2013.Theincrease washighestamongcollege-educatedhouseholds,who sawtheirdebtriseby47percentoverthepastquarter- century.Theriseindebtalsoexplainstheincrease intheshareofyounghouseholdswhohavenegative wealth,meaningtheyhavemoredebtthanassets.The shareofyounghouseholdswithcollegedegreeswith FIGURE02 GREAT RECESSION LEFT MANY PART-TIME WORKERS UNABLE TO FIND A FULL-TIME JOB PERCENTOFPART-TIMEYOUNGWORKERS DOINGSOFORECONOMICREASONS 0 10 20 30 40 50 1980 1994 20091984 1999 20141989 2004 45.8% 36.1% DemoscalculationsfromtheCurrent PopulationSurvey,“Young”workers definedasages25-34. 23.8% 20.2% 26.3%26.1% 29.3% 23.1%
- 17. andsubsequentgenerations,bothdirectlyintheform ofreducedincomesandwealth,andindirectlythrough likely highertaxbillsasextremeweather,risingsea levels,drought,heat-relatedhealthproblems,and manyotherclimatechange-relatedproblemstake theirtollonoursociety.Theclimatepenaltyalone islikelytosignificantlyreducethelivingstandards ofthelargestgenerationinourhistoryandwill haveanevenmoresevereimpactonthechildrenof millennials.Thisburdenalonewouldbecrippling, butcombinedwiththecostsofstudentdebt,unmet childcareneeds,stagnantwages,involuntary underemployment,and,foryoungpeopleofcolor inparticular,highratesofjoblessness,theclimate penaltycouldbeaknockoutblowformillennials. Thus,whilemillennialsarethegreatesthopefor amoreprogressive,inclusive,anddemocratically empoweredsociety,theirfutureisalltooprecarious thankstoaprofoundfailureofleadershiponthe seriouseconomicchallenges,andthehugeclimate risks,theyuniquelyface. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECONOMIC COSTS Virtuallyallscientistsagreethatclimatechange isahuman-madecrisisdrivenbyskyrocketing emissionsof“heat-trapping”greenhousegases (GHG)intotheatmosphere,whicharecausingthe planettowarmatanalarmingrate.Thesegases,most notablycarbondioxideandmethane,areemittedby theproductionandconsumptionoffossilfuelsfor powergeneration,byfossilfuel-intensiveindustrial andcommercialdevelopment,bygasoline-powered transportationamidvastresidentialsprawl,aswell asbydeforestation,certainkindsofagriculture,and otherdestructiveland-usepractices.Thesepractices eithergenerateGHGemissionsordepletenatural sinksthatabsorbcarbondioxideandothergreenhouse gases,ordoboth. Thedriverofclimatechangeimpactsisrisingglobal temperaturesandchangingweatherpatterns,where evensmallshiftscanhavemassiveimpactsonalarge scale.Theimpactsofclimatechangeareoccurring now,fasterandstrongerthanpredicted.July2016 wasthe15thstraightmonthofrecord-breakingheat. SealevelsarerisingandinMiami,Norfolk,andother coastalcities,tidalfloodingisbecomingthenorm– evenondayswithoutstorms.Over10millionacresof Americanforestburnedin2015,theworstwildfire seasononrecord.Weknowthatdrierandlonger droughtsarethreateningourcropsandpeltingrains areleadingtomorefrequentinlandflooding.Weknow thatArcticicecoverslessofournorthernoceanthan everbefore,inbothsummerandwinter,andthatthe icecapsofAntarcticaandGreenlandareshrinking rapidly.Allofthesechangesarehappeningasaverage globaltemperatureshaverisenmorethanonedegree Celsiuscomparedtopreindustriallevels. Ifsignificantclimatechangeimpactsarealready evidenttodaythenitshouldbepatentlyclearthat urgentactionisneededtoreduceGHGemissions dramaticallyinaveryshorttimetolimitfurther warming.TheParisAgreementof2015commits theUnitedStatesandmorethan180othercountries toreductionsthatwillkeepglobalwarmingbelow 2degreesCelsiuscomparedtopreindustriallevels, 17
- 18. whichisestimatedtorequireatleastan80percent reductioninemissionsby2050. Manycommonlyusedeconomicmodelsofclimate changedamagesintheUnitedStatesemphasize severalmajorareasofimpact,varyingregionally: yy Risingsealevelsthatwilleventually inundatecoastalcommunities. yy Risingfrequencyandintensityofextreme weathereventsandrelatedflooding. yy Extremewaterstressduetocombined effectsofover-consumptionandclimate- relatedwatersupplyshrinkage,withlikely mega-droughtsintheSouthwest,California, andtheCentralGreatPlainsstates. yy Climate-relatedhealthimpactsfrom varioussources,includingheatwaves, poorerairquality,andincreasedratesof insect-borneinfectiousdisease. yy Decliningagriculturalproductivitydueto weatherevents,soilchanges,pestilence, andotherclimate-relatedfactors. yy Wildfiresofincreasingfrequencyand intensity. yy Depletionofcorals,shellfish,pteropods (acornerstoneofmarinefoodchains),and othermarinelife. Fortheeighthconsecutiveyear,extremeweatherhas costU.S.taxpayersover$10billion.22 InPennsylvania andOhio,pollutionfromcoal-andgas-burningpower plantsisestimatedtohavecaused4,400deathsand $38billioninhealthcostsin2015alone.23 Anestimate ofFlorida’smountingcoastalliabilitiesfoundthat damagesinthestatefromasinglehurricanecould reach$641billionby2030duetorisingsealevelsand moreextremeweather.24 Butwhatdoesthismeanforindividualhouseholds, andparticularlyformillennialswhowillbearthe bruntofrapidlyrisingclimatechangecostsbythe middleofthiscentury?Wecanestimatetheclimate costsfacingmillennialswiththehelpofamodel developedbyresearchersfromStanfordUniversity andUniversityofCaliforniaatBerkeley,withwhich theymeasuretheeffectsofrisingtemperatureson long-runeconomicgrowth.25 Drawingon50yearsof historicaldatafrom166countries,andusingrigorous controls,theyinvestigatehowrisingtemperatures willaffectnationalproductivity.Ina“noclimate action”scenario,theyfindthat,by2100,globalper capitaGDPwillshrinkby23percentrelativetoper capitaGDPinaworldwithoutclimatechange.The U.S.GDP,withoutclimateaction,isprojectedtotake ahitof5percentby2050,and,by2100,36percentof U.S.GDPpercapitawillbelostduetoclimatechange. Inotherwords,comparedtoaworldwithoutclimate change,millennials’lifetimeincomeswillbereduced inlinewithrecessionaryGDPimpactsbymid-century ifwedonotactonclimatechange;bytheendofthe century,whenthechildrenoftheyoungestmillennials areretiring,thelossesfromclimatechangewillbe muchgreater,comparabletoGreatDepression-era losses. Extrapolatingfromthelong-runU.S.growthcurve underascenarioofnoactiononclimatechange,we calculatehowclimatechange’seconomicimpacts willaffecttheincomesandwealthofmillennials [See AppendixAforanexplanationofourmethodology fortheseestimates].A21year-oldearningamedian incomeoverherworkinglifetimewilllosenearly $100,000inincome,orapproximately5.5percent oflifetimeincome,duetoclimatechange.This translatesintoa$142,000lossinwealthbyage65, iftheincomeweretobesaved.Acollegegraduate earningthemedianincomeforcollegegraduates willlose$126,000inincome,or,similarly,about5.5 18 ThePriceTagofBeingYoung:ClimateChangeandMillennials’EconomicFuture
- 19. FIGURE03 LIFETIME LOST WEALTH FROM CLIMATE CHANGE, WORKERS WHO ARE 21 YEARS OLD AS OF 2015 MEDIAN EARNER MEDIAN COLLEGE DEGREE EARNER $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $187,000 $142,000 21 30 40 50 60 LOSTWEALTH FIGURE04 LIFETIME LOST WEALTH FROM CLIMATE CHANGE, WORKERS WHO ARE BORN IN 2015 MEDIAN EARNER MEDIAN COLLEGE DEGREE EARNER $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 21 30 40 50 60 LOSTWEALTH $764,000 $581,000 AGE AGE 19
- 20. percentofherlifetimeincome.Iftheincomewere saved,shewouldloseapproximately$187,000in lifetimewealth(Figure3). Asclimatedamagesaccelerateafter2050,the childrenofmillennialswillbehurtdrasticallymore thantheirparents.Forexample,amedianearner bornin2015willlose$357,000,or11percentofher lifetimeincome,and$581,000inlifetimewealth duetoclimatechange,iftheincomeweresaved.The median-earningfuturecollegegraduatebornin 2015wouldloseapproximately$467,000inlifetime incomeand$764,000inlifetimewealth(Figure4). Intheaggregate,themillennialgenerationwilllose approximately$8.8trillioninlifetimeincomeifwe failtoactonclimatechange.Ifweassumethatonly 15percentofthatlostincomewillbesaved(because manylower-earningmillennialswillnotbeable tosaveverymuchoratall),millennialswillloseat least$2trillioninaggregatewealthifclimatechange continuesunabated. Comparedtotheothereconomicchallengestheyare facing,climatechange’sfinancialcosttomillennials ismuchgreater,forexampleascomparedwiththe lossesduetostudentdebtorcausedbyothermajor crises,suchasthefinancialcrashof2008(Figure 5).AccordingtoDemoscalculations,foramedian- earningcollegegraduatewithmedianstudent debt,thelifetimewealthlossduetostudentdebtis approximately$113,000,26 whichis40percentless thanthe$187,000lifetimewealthlossofacollege- educated,median-earning21-year-oldifwefailto actonclimatechange.Similarly,climatechange lossesaremuchgreaterthanthelossescausedbythe financialcrisisof2008,thesecondworstfinancial crisisinmodernhistory.Themediancollege-educated householdlostabout$112,000inwealthduring theGreatRecession,muchlessthanthe$187,000 lossprojectedforthemedian-earning21-year-old collegegraduateifwedonottackleclimatechange. Infact,muchofthehouseholdwealthlostduringthe GreatRecessionhasbeenrecovered,whichfurther underscoresthemuchgreatermagnitudeofincome andwealthlosseswecanexpectwithoutfastand aggressiveactiononclimatechange. Anywayyoucutit,ifwedon’ttakeactiononclimate change,millennialsandtheirchildrenwillbearthe bruntoftheacceleratingclimatecosts,withincome andwealthlossesthatwillonlyfurthercompound theeconomicchallengestheyarefacingapartfrom climatechange.Butaggressiveactiononclimate changewillnotonlyreducethelosses,itcouldalso drivenetgainsintheeconomyasthesubstantial investmentneededtoreduceemissionstranslatesinto jobsandeconomicgrowthinourcommunities. FIGURE05 LIFETIME LOST WEALTH FROM MAJOR CRISES FOR COLLEGE-EDUCATED INDIVIDUALS Lost Wealth from Climate Change, Median 21-year-old College Graduate, Class of 2015 Lost Wealth from Student Debt, Median College- Educated Worker Lost Wealth from the Great Recession, Median College- Educated Household $187,000 $113,000 $112,000 DOLLARS 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 20 ThePriceTagofBeingYoung:ClimateChangeandMillennials’EconomicFuture
- 21. III.FROMCOSTSTO OPPORTUNITY REDUCING GHG EMISSIONS = INVESTMENT = JOBS FOR THE FUTURE Manystudiesandrealtimeexamples,likeCalifornia’s carbonmarketortheRegionalGreenhouseGas Initiative,showthatthelow-carbontransitions canandwillbeanetjobcreatorandwillleadto economicgrowth.Whenwecombinethepositive economiccaseforclimatechangeactionwiththe avertedfinanciallossesforindividualsandsociety, andespeciallyformillennialsandtheirchildren(as wesawintheprevioussection),the“netpositive” casefortransitioningtoacleanenergyeconomyis overwhelming. Thetransitiontoacleanenergyeconomyhasmultiple pathways,including: yy Investmentsinenergyefficienthousingand retrofits,andmoreefficienthouseholddurable goods(appliances,tools,etc.),complemented byenergy-usereductionstrategiesinthe commercialandindustrialsectors. yy Decarbonizingelectricalpowergeneration withashifttorenewablepowersources suchassolarandwind. yy Decarbonizingtransportationwith electricity-poweredvehicles,expanded electrifiedcommuterrail,electrified ports,andexpandedrailshipping,including regionalrailelectrification. Thepathwaysforrenewableenergyandzero-carbon transportation,inparticular,requiresubstantial newinvestmentsininfrastructures—solarandwind installationsandtransmissionnetworks,roadside electricvehiclechargingstations,andthevarious publictransitandrailshippinginfrastructures. Muchofthisinvestmentishighlylabor-intensiveand, further,muchofitwillflowtohigh-payingsectors suchasconstructionandmanufacturing. 21
- 22. BENEFITS OF A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY AleadingstudybyICFInternational27 projects economicimpactsofachievingan80percent reductioninGHGemissions(relativeto1990levels) by2050.28 Lookingattheyears2030and2050,the studyestimatesnewinvestmentneeded,jobcreation, sectoralemploymentgrowth,andGDPgrowth,among otherfactors,andalsobreaksthesetrendsdownfor nineregionsacrossthecountry. Thetoplineresultsshowthatsubstantial decarbonizationwillhavesignificantnetpositive benefitsforoureconomy,withoutevenaccounting foravertedGDPandfiscallossesthatwillfollow fromaggressiveactiontomitigateclimatechange. In2050,climatechangeactioncouldaddasmuch $800billioninnewinvestment(equaltoroughly2.6 percentofGDPthatyear),nearly2millionnetnew jobs,andapproximately$290billiontoGDP.Seven ofnineregionsacrossthecountrywillseenetjobs gainsfromcleanenergytransitions,withthemost significantgainsinseveralofourmostpopulous regions.TheSouthAtlanticregion(includingVA,NC, SC,GA,andFL)willgain672,000jobs,theMiddle Atlanticregion(NY,PA,NJ)willgain369,000jobs, andtheEastNorthCentralregion(OH,IN,MI,WI, IL)willgain384,000jobs.Toputthisinperspective, theprojectedcleanenergyemploymentgainsinthe SouthAtlanticaloneareequaltoabouttwo-thirdsof theentireworkforceinfossilfuelextractionin2015, andthecombinednewjobsintheSouthAtlanticand theMiddleAtlanticregionstotalmorethanourentire automobilemanufacturingworkforceasof2015.29 Tworegions,WestSouthCentral(TX,OK,AR,LA) andEastSouthCentral(KY,TN,MS,AL),couldsee fewerjobsdue,inlargepart,totheireconomicreliance onfossilfuelindustries.However,potentialjob impactscouldbeoffsetifcleanenergyinvestmentsare well-targetedincommunitieswiththemostserious economicneedsintheseareas. Theprojectedcleanenergy employmentgainsinthe SouthAtlanticaloneareequal toabouttwo-thirdsofthe entireworkforceinfossilfuel extractionin2015. 22 ThePriceTagofBeingYoung:ClimateChangeandMillennials’EconomicFuture
- 23. TARGETING OF INVESTMENT CAN ENLARGE IMPACTS TheICFnumbersdonottakeintoaccounthow state-leveltargetingofinvestmentcanenlarge (orreduce)theactualeconomicimpactofclimate investments,andsuchconsiderationsareimportant forensuringthatthecommunitiesmostimpacted byclimatechangebenefitthemostfromtheclean energytransition.Indeed,climateactioncanand shouldbeanavenueforcreatingamoreinclusive, racially-equitableeconomythatleavesnoone behind.Forexample,energyefficiencyinvestments willbringparticularlylargebenefitsinlow-wealth communitiesofcolor,whichoftenhavetheleast efficienthousingstocksanddurablegoods,and thisistruefrombothahouseholdperspectiveand aclimateperspective.Thatis,efficiencygainsare proportionallybiggerifthelargestinvestments aremadeinlessenergyefficientcommunities,and, likewise,lowerenergybillsmeansignificantlymore tolower-incomepeople,whoseenergycoststakea sizeablebiteoutoffamilybudgetsandoftenforce familiestosacrificeotheressentialneeds.30 Similarly,atargetedinvestmentwhichadds15,000 jobsinahigh-unemploymentcommunitywill haveagreaterimpactthanadding15,000jobsina communitywithlowunemployment.Thus,weshould bemindfulofhowtheaggregatenetpositivecasecan befurtherimprovedifinvestmentsaretargetedfor communitiesthatneedthemosthelpeconomically. Similarly,cleanenergyinvestmentsincommunities withmorefossilfuelpollutionwillhaveproportionally greaterhealthbenefitsandgeneratemorehealth savingsperdollarinvested. 23
- 26. APPENDIX DATA Forourestimationexercise,wereliedontwomaindatasources: yy TheprojectedpercapitaGDPwithandwithout climatechange(fortheperiod2010-2099)are borrowedfromBurke,Hsiang,andMiguel(2015).The projectionsareinturnbasedonSSP5oftheShared SocioeconomicPathwaysdatabaseandonRCP8.5of theRepresentativeConcentrationPathways. yy ThesecondsourceofdataisthetheCurrent PopulationSurvey(CPS)producedanddistributedby MinnesotaPopulationCenter(2010),whichwasused forwageincomedata. yy Estimatesforrealwageincreaseprojectionswere takenfromtheSocialSecurityAdministration’s TrusteesReport,usingtheprojectionsfromtheir “intermediate”scenario. METHODOLOGY Fromtheillustrationprovidedinthedescriptivedata,thegap betweenGDP/CapitawithoutclimatechangeandGDP/Capitawith climatechangeisincreasingovertheyears.Weusethepercentage changebetweenthetwotoestimatethechangeinindividual wageincomeunderthescenarioofclimatechange.Weassume therelationshipbetweenthechangeinGDP/Capitaandthewage incomeislinear. Thelossofwageincomeatanygivenyearisderivedasfollow: Weassumethatthedistributionofwagesbyagewillnotchange overtime.Wagesarethenadjustedtoconstant2015dollars.Totake intoaccountrealwagegrowthwemultiplytheaboveequationby the1.2percent,derivedfromtheSocialSecurityAdministration’s calculations. Wealsocalculatethefuturevalueofthelostincomefromsaving duetolostwages.Weassumeeachagewouldhavesaved12percent ofthelostwageincome.Wethenestimatethatthislostsavings wouldhaveearnedreturnsaveraging3.5percentannually,inreal terms,untilretirement. RATIONALE Weusewageincomeinsteadofpersonalincome(whichincludes wageincome),becauseassetincome(theothermajorsourceof personalincome)canhavevaryinggeographicalsources,henceit won’tbeareliableindicatorifwearesolelyinterestedinstudying theeffectsoftemperaturechangesonproductivityofacertain geographicalarea,inourcasetheUnitedStates. Whydoweusemedianwageincomeinsteadofmeanwageincome? Asameasureofcentraltendency,themeancanbesignificantly impactedbyoutliers.Forwageincome,thisisoftenthecase, particularlywhenlookingatthewageincomeyoungerorolder workers. BIBLIOGRAPHY Burke,M.,Hsiang,S.andMiguel,E.(2015).Globalnon-linear effectoftemperatureoneconomicproduction.Nature,527(7577), pp.235-239. King,M.,Ruggles,S.,Trent,A.,Flood,S.,Genadek,K.,Schroeder, M.,Trampe,B.andVick,R.(2016).IPUMSCPS.[online]Cps. ipums.org.Availableat:https://cps.ipums.org/cps/[Accessed14 Jul.2016]. SocialSecurityAdministration(2016).“The2016AnnualReport oftheBoardofTrusteesoftheFederalOld-AgeandSurvivors InsuranceandFederalDisabilityInsuranceTrustFunds.” GDPCapClimateChange (t) GDPCapBaseScenario (t) Lossofwageincome(t)=(1- )*WageIncome(t) FVage =LostIncomeage* (1+0.035)N , N=numberofperiods(years)beforeretirement 26
- 27. 1. GlobalAnalysis-July2016,”NationalOceanicand AtmosphericAdministration,NationalCentersfor EnvironmentalInformation,availableathttp://www. ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607. 2. “GlobalAnalysis–Annual2015,”NationalOceanic andAtmosphericAdministration,NationalCenters forEnvironmentalInformation,availableathttps:// www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201513. 3. “U.S.Billion-DollarWeatherandClimateDisasters (1980-2016),”NationalOceanicandAtmospheric Administration,NationalCentersforEnvironmental Information,availableathttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ billions/events.pdf. 4. ICFInternational,EconomicAnalysisofU.S. DecarbonizationPathways,2015,availableathttps:// nextgenamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/ ICF-Study-Decarb-Econ-Analysis-Nov-12-2015- Final3.pdf. 5. vEmmanuelSaez,StrikingItRicher:TheEvolution ofTopIncomesintheUnitedStates(Updatedwith 2015PreliminaryEstimates),UniversityofCalifornia, Berkeley,June30,2016,availableathttps://eml. berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-UStopincomes-2015.pdf, seeTable1. 6. FederalReserveBankofNewYork,Household DebtandCreditReport,availableathttps://www. newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html. 7. MarkHuelsman,TheDebtDivide:TheRacialandClass BiasBehindthe“NewNormal”ofStudentBorrowing, Demos,2015,availableathttp://www.demos.org/ publication/debt-divide-racial-and-class-bias- behind-new-normal-student-borrowing 8. JasonDelisle,AreStudentLoanDefaultsGetting BetterorGettingWorse?,AmericanEnterprise Institute,June2016,availableathttp://www.aei.org/ publication/student-loan-defaults-getting-better- worse/ 9. Huelsman,TheDebtDivide,op.cit. 10. Ibid. 11. RobertHiltonsmith,AtWhatCost?HowStudentDebt ReducesLifetimeWealth,Demos,2013,availableat http://www.demos.org/what-cost-how-student- debt-reduces-lifetime-wealth. 12. DemoscalculationsbasedontheCurrentPopulation Survey,2015. 13. DemoscalculationsbasedontheCurrentPopulation Survey,2015. 14. “MaternityandPaternityatWork:LawandPractice AcrosstheWorld,”InternationalLabourOrganization, 2014,availableathttps://fortunedotcom.files. wordpress.com/2014/05/wcms_242615.pdf. 15. DemoscalculationsbasedontheCurrentPopulation Survey,2015. 16. SharonLerner,“TheRealWaronFamilies:WhytheU.S. NeedsPaidLeaveNow,”InTheseTimes,August2015, availableathttp://inthesetimes.com/article/18151/ the-real-war-on-families. 17. LyndaLaughlin,“MaternityLeaveandEmployment PatternsofFirst-TimeMothers:1961–2008,”The U.S.CensusBureau,HouseholdEconomicStudies, October2011, availableathttps://www.census.gov/ prod/2011pubs/p70-128.pdf. 18. Ibid. 19. ChildcareAwareofAmerica,“ParentsandtheHigh CostofCare:2015report,”August2015,http://usa. childcareaware.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/ Parents-and-the-High-Cost-of-Child-Care-2015- FINAL.pdf. 20. Theemploymentandwagenumbersdiscussedinthis sectionarefromDemoscalculationsusingtheCurrent PopulationSurveyandtheAmericanCommunity Survey. 21. AllcalculationsinthissectionareDemoscalculations fromthe1989and2013SurveysofConsumerFinances. 22. “U.S.Billion-DollarWeatherandClimateDisasters ENDNOTES 27
- 28. (1980-2016),”NationalOceanicandAtmospheric Administration,NationalCentersforEnvironmental Information,availableathttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ billions/events.pdf. 23. OurAir:HEALTHANDEQUITYIMPACTSOF PENNSYLVANIA’SPOWERPLANTS,NextGen ClimateAmerica,July2016,availableathttps:// nextgenamerica.org/news-reports/our-air-pa/;Our Air:HEALTHANDEQUITYIMPACTSOFOHIO’SPOWER PLANTS,NextGenClimateAmericaClimateAmerica, July2016, availableathttps://nextgenamerica.org/ news-reports/our-air-ohio/. 24. RobertRepetto,“EconomicAndEnvironmental ImpactsOfClimateChangeInFlorida,”Demos, April2012,availableathttp://www.demos.org/ publication/economic-and-environmental-impacts- climate-change-florida. 25. MarshallBurke,et.al.,“Globalnon-lineareffectof temperatureoneconomicproduction,”Nature,Vol. 527,November2015,availableathttp://www.nature. com/articles/nature15725.epdf?referrer_access_ token=dvbw-VImZa_8U7Ug-C59n9RgN0jAjWel9jnR 3ZoTv0M9qnfWTywcc-wmqGd2vK84Dm7GGBIHFDI K3iZFcb2NUnSWQFSATgixEL12Q5gaz4cu6pwBdmJr0 pzYWgCowDlURYTItMWFpO9JXTxz0wQh2PadIt4tN MUspj18beFXdhpN42rnjKQro33_s-7yGFh&tracking_ referrer=time.com.Seealsotheprojectwebsitefor moreinformation,availableathttp://web.stanford. edu/~mburke/climate/. 26. CalculationsrecentlyupdatedfromHiltonsmith,At WhatCost,op.cit. 27. ItshouldalsobenotedthattheICFstudydoesnot addresspublictransitsolutions,whicharelabor intensiveandwouldaddtotheemploymentgains projectedunderthescenariosusedinthestudy. Today,however,acenturyafterconstructionofthe firstsubwaysystemsbegan,onlyabout5percent ofAmericanstakepublictransittogettowork (surprisingly,in1960,12percentofAmericansused publictransit).#Wearemissingabigopportunityhere: two-thirdsofourpopulationalreadylivesinourcities, andourcitiesoccupyonly3to4percentofourtotal landarea.Thisisclearlyagoodpopulationdensity formulaformuchmorewidespreaduseofpublic transit,whichinturnwouldbeabigwinnerforclimate andjobsinthefuture. 28. ICFInternational,EconomicAnalysisofU.S. DecarbonizationPathways,2015,availableathttps:// nextgenamerica.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/ ICF-Study-Decarb-Econ-Analysis-Nov-12-2015- Final3.pdf 29. AccordingtotheBureauofLaborStatistics,in2015, theworkforceformining,quarrying,andoilandgas extractiontotaledapproximately900,000,andthe automobilemanufacturingworkforcetotaledabout 910,000. 30. ArielDrehoblandLaurenRoss,LiftingtheHigh EnergyBurdeninAmerica’sLargestCities,American CouncilforanEnergy-EfficientEconomy(April2016), availableathttp://aceee.org/research-report/u1602. 31. JamisonFoser,50MillionMillennialsCan’tbeWrong (ButWillTheyVote?) NextGenClimate,2016,available athttps://nextgenclimate.org/blog/elections/50- million-millennials-will-they-vote/. 32. SeanMcElwee,WhyVotingMatters,Demos, September2015,availableathttp://www.demos.org/ publication/why-voting-matters-large-disparities- turnout-benefit-donor-class. 28