1. The Political Cycle
and its impact on business

2. About the Political Cycle
In democratic societies governments go through a political
cycle, displaying growth, activity, problems and decline.
This presentation outlines the six phases of the political cycle
and how, through greater understanding, it can be used by
businesses.

3. Political Cycle – in graphic form
(Please note – Phase One and Six can be interchangeable)
Phase One - End of an Era
Phase Two - Election Campaign
Phase Three - Post Election
Euphoria
Phase Four - Shine Wears Off
Phase Five - Stress Signals
Phase Six - Pre-election Mode

4. Phase One – The end of an Era
Opposition party moves into the lead in opinion polls as
governing party or coalition starts to look tired and
suffers reputational difficulties.
Usually within a year of a general election.
 Opportunity for business to influence future policies
 Good time to build new relationships with wider network of
politicians
 Bad time to do deals with government which might unravel
after the election

5. Phase Two – The Election Campaign
An intense three weeks (on average) which provides a lot of
useful information about key players, what they think, their
personalities and their policies.
 A crucial time for business to carry out analysis of
policies, political risk and likely points of influence in the new
government
 Watch for possible coalitions and their potential effect on
policies and government makeup
 Note the degree of animosity which could lead to ‘witch
hunts’ against opponents (and those they did business with)
after the election

6. Phase Three – Post election euphoria
Better known as the honeymoon period. If the same party then
a chance to change a few things (and people). If a new party are
they inexperienced players seeking to make their mark.
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Watch to see who is in and who is out of the new cabinet
If coalition is formed where are the compromises on policies
A good time to build relationships and help new players
A crucial time to reinforce and protect existing
contracts/business
 An excellent time to find new business development
opportunities by understanding their priorities

7. Phase Four – The shine wears off
Government settles into a pattern of work. It starts to put in
place its manifesto pledges. If a new political party in
government then it starts to find out just how bad (or good)
things really are.
 Watch announcements carefully and look for opportunities
arising from strategic announcements
 Be very careful to avoid improper relationships with key
players
 Watch the public servants (are they political; are they subject
to sackings and reassignments)
 Avoid corruption

8. Phase Five – Stress signals
Government demonstrates stress signs, makes mistakes. Things
start to go wrong, bad press briefings, opinion polls start to show
fall in support.
 Key players can be distracted
 But often a good time to come up with helpful initiatives
 Often a time of indecision, so push hard to get contracts
signed

9. Phase Six – Pre-election mode
Government goes into pre-election mode. Attempts populist
policies, makes promises, offers giveaways. Opposition goes into
‘listening’ mode as it develops and tests policies.
 Poor time to talk to government unless it is to progress ongoing
discussions
 Good time to sign deals that will be ‘sold’ politically as good for the
people
 Bad time to help government force through unpopular policies
 Good time to engage with opposition, especially if they have a
chance of winning; important time to influence policy formulation

10. What next?
Trade Bridge Consultants
are experts in understanding, interpreting and advising
on the political cycle.
In politics things can change rapidly and are subject to the
vagaries of many events, some predictable and
some unexpected.
If you need help then talk to us.
Email: john.earl@tradebridgeconsultants.com
www.tradebridgeconsultants.com