The document summarizes Almaz Demissie's presentation on a study tour to the Netherlands to learn about drought and flood monitoring techniques. The tour involved visits to remote sensing companies and universities to learn about their work in areas like crop forecasting, flood modeling, and using satellite data to develop early warning systems. The goal was to identify potential partnerships and ways to improve Ethiopia's LEAP system for managing drought and flood risks. Key areas for future collaboration discussed included validating LEAP's yield forecasts, developing new flood indices, and building Ethiopia's capacity to manage climate risks.

1. THE NETHERLANDS LEAP STUDY TOUR PRESENTATION
BY
ALMAZ DEMESSIE
SENIOR AGROMETEOROLOGICAL EXPERT
Government of Ethiopia and World Food Programme (WFP)
STUDY TOUR to the NETHERLANDS
5-13 June 2010

2.  As indicated in GoE and WFP study tour program
document the study tour is part of the capacity
building component of the GFDRR sponsored LEAP
project.
 LEAP is an innovative project that links drought and
flood monitoring and early warning with the
government managed risk management framework
in Ethiopia.
 It allows the government action in to proactively
managing risk, rather than simply responding to
disasters.

3.  LEAP also acts as a tool to trigger donor contingency
finance to allow rapid and predictable scale up of
the national productive safety net program (PSNP).
 During the current phase, LEAP software is being
further developed through the introduction of a
flood and a pastoralist index.
 Moreover, GoE capacity is being developed in order
to manage drought and flood risks.
 The study tour will contribute to the development of
next LEAP phase, enabling the GoE to define future
strategy and partnerships.

4. The DRM approach relies heavily on the data
generated by sectors and departments such as
 The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR);
 The National Meteorological Agency (NMA);
 The MoARD and other agencies.

5. The DRM approach relies heavily on the data generated by
sectors and departments such as
 The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR);
 The National Meteorological Agency (NMA);
 The MoARD and other agencies.
Hence, the above mention relevant institutions participated
in the Netherlands LEAP study tour to improve knowledge
and understanding concerning crop, flood, and rangeland
monitoring techniques using remote sensing as well as to
forage potential partnerships for further support in
developing LEAP and the GoE capacity in managing
LEAP.

6. The World Food Programme (WFP), the DRMFSS,
the NMA and Ethiopian Research Institute
undertook the study tour to five different
institutions namely:
 Earth Environment Monitoring (EARS) in Delft,
 Rotterdam flood control;
 ITC- University of Twente;
 Wageningen University; and
 Wageningen University – Water Watch Institute.

7. Objectives
of the
study tour
To improve knowledge
and understanding of
key GoE staffs in
regards to crop, flood
and rangeland
mentoring techniques
using remote sensing
To form potential
partnerships for
further support in
developing LEAP
and the GoE’s
capacity in
managing LEAP.

8. Monday 07 June
2010
Visit EARS high-
tech
Environment and
Remote Sensing
Company
The remote sensing company
involved in modeling of physical
processes, software and hardware
development including development
of innovative applications like an
interesting drought micro-insurance
mechanism based on the satellite
detected relative global
evapotranspiration as indicator for
drought.

9. EARS
…Contd
Major activities of the company as follows:-
Energy and Water Balance Monitoring System
Water Cycle Data from Meteosat
RIVER FLOW FORECASTING
(in cooperation with UNESCO-IHE)
Besides, presentation and discussion held on energy
water balance monitoring system, crop yield and
rangeland forecasting and drought micro insurance.

10. EARS
…Contd
EARS activities are carried out in
two daughter companies i.e.
- EARS Earth Environment
Monitoring (EARS-E2M) and
- EARS Plant photosynthesis
Monitoring (EARS-P2M)

11. The
current
projects
of EARS
Food Early Solutions for Africa-Micro Insurance(FESA)
The objectives of the project are to develop a Meteosat based
drought micro-insurance system able to reach every farmer in
Africa.
The parameters to generate crop yield estimates are 28 years
of Meteosat data in particular temperature, radiation and
evapotranspiration. Relative evapotranspiration (RE) and
relative yield (RY) used as indicators for drought and crop
failure.

12. The
current
projects
of EARS
… Contd
Pasture monitoring in Mongolia
The objective is to implement a Remote Sensing based
Decision Support System for pastureland Management in
order to provide decision makers with day-by-day, spatially
continuous information or grazing condition.
It will include drought, biomass and carrying capacity maps in
summer, and snow depth and presence of an ice layer in
winter. Based on this information the central and local
government may improve its policy and timely decision on
cattle allocation.

13. The
current
projects
of EARS
… Contd
Food Assessment by Satellite Technology (FAST) crop yield
forecasting in the framework of the GMES project
FAST products and crop yield early warning bulletins created
based on Meteosat data and provided to FAO-GIEWS and WFP-
VAM.
The FAST early warning products provided :
FAST 1: Rainfall during the growing season
FAST 2: Relative evapotranspiration during the growing season
FAST 3: Difference evapotranspiration during the growing season
FAST 4: Forecasted end of season crop relative yield
FAST 5: Forecasted end of season difference yield

14. The
current
projects
of EARS
… Contd
High water and drought monitoring for
water boards
Which carried out in the framework of the
program “Space for Geo-information”? In this
project, satellite derived precipitation and
MSG derived actual evapotranspiration are
combined to water excess and water shortage
data products for Dutch Water Boards.

15. The
current
projects
of EARS
… Contd
Yellow River water resources monitoring
and flow forecasting
The project objective is to implement a
Satellite based flow forecasting system in
upper Yellow River and in the Weihe tributary.
Besides the flow forecasting system also a
satellite based drought monitoring system is
established for the entire basin

16. EARS
…
Contd
Identified potential areas of collaboration were-
• The field verification of EARS yield and range
land forecasting products
• Incorporation of the flood model into the LEAP
• Use of the drought micro insurance model
currently developed in Ethiopia in the future.

17.  Introduction about the system given by the
concerned personnel after that we visited the flood
barrier and the construction around the barrier. The
important thing what we learn from the system is
how hardworking they are and their efforts to
protect their area with their effective Early
Warning System.

18. Different
scientists of
which
covered
introduction
about ITC
by Tom
Veldkamp
and the
following
topics:
• Drought and flood monitoring, assessment and
modeling;
• water balance and hydrological cycle;
• Soil moisture determination by using satellite data
• About GEONET cast toolbox for the estimation of
rainfall, vegetation cove, land degradation, geo
disasters, etc

19. ITC
…
Contd
Finally, there was a discussion about the future
conditions of training and capacity building
opportunities in the above-mentioned areas. They
have two systems for short-term training one is
ITC full time training it costs € 900 and the other
one is tailor made training it is also costs € 500.
With regard to determining the nature of
collaboration, Mr. Elliot from WFP assigned to
prepare concept note on behalf of the Government
of Ethiopian mission for looking at areas of
potential collaboration with the ITC- University
of Twente that also strengthen the LEAP products.

20. Introduction to
Wageningen
University by
the director of
ALTERA
followed by
paper
presentation by
different staffs
of Alterra as
follows:-
About the MARSOP project:
Monitoring weather and crop yield and its history i.e.
in 1988 Initiative by European Commission:
JRC, DG_Agric, Eurostat
1989-1998 Agriculture Project
= Pilot project f. Remote Sensing Applied to Agric Statistics
Since 1993 called MARS Project
= Monitoring Agriculture with Remote Sensing
= Monitoring Agricultural Resources
2000-2013 MARSOP1, 2, 3 = MARS Operations

21. Wageningen
University
ALTERA …
Contd
Details of the bulletin content discussed and areas of
interest for MARS global services including data and
methods such as-
Sources of data
• Weather from station
• Weather from ECMWF
• Soil map
• Land cover/ land use
• Crop type and calendar
• NOAA and SPOT-VGT
• Regional yield statistics

22. Wageningen
University
ALTERA …
Contd
Methods
• Weather monitoring
• CGMS arable crop yield model
• GWSI model
• RS based yield estimates

23. Wageningen
University
ALTERA …
Contd
Complexity Horn of Africa:
• varying number of seasons,
• Large local variation in rainfall
• Average crop calendar and crop
growth duration is not sufficient
to catch reality

24. Wagenin
gen
Universi
ty
ALTER
A …
Contd
Global
Water
Satisfaction
Index with
some
examples
of Ethiopia
The topic of
presentation
focuses on Crop
Water Satisfaction
Index, ECMWF
analysis data,
Water retention
capacity, Rooting
depth and Crop
mask grain maize
Importance of GWSI
• Useful for detecting hot spots
with extreme conditions
worldwide
• Framework, tools and db
structure also useful for national
applications, only needs more
detailed data
• Currently developing new
version with more detailed data
and better estimation of start of
season
• Demo current version running
on 1 degree climatic grid

25. The introduction
remark to the
institution made
by Director of
Water Watch
Professor at Delft
University Water
Resources
Management and
RS Specialist. In
his topic mainly
focuses on
Quantitative information and operational
monitoring of water resources and crop growth
(incl. pastures) from satellite data
• Actual evapotranspiration
• Precipitation
• Soil moisture
• Biomass production
• Floods
• Drought

26. Water Watch
… Contd
Where in Ethiopia?
• Actual evapotranspiration in the Baro – Akobo
basins
• Participatory ground water management in Ziway
basin
• Land and water conditions for assessing the
agricultural potential in the Tana – Beles Growth
Corridor
• A scoping study on RS in decision support systems
in Nile Basin water management
• Best practices, weaknesses and opportunities for
Large Scale Irrigation practices in the Nile Basin
• Establishment of a flood monitoring system in the
Nile basin
• Water balance Lake Tana Basin

27. Water Watch
… Contd
There was a discussion on
• Energy and water balance modeling
• Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for
Land (SEBAL)

28. Water
Watch
…
Contd
The Institute has developed a number of interesting toolboxes such
as:-
• METEOLOK for Agro meteorology, which combines remote sensing
data with meteorological data in order to derive the average air
temperature using energy and water balance modeling. The spatial
resolution is of 250 meters
• ETLOOK for the surface energy balance to calculate crop potential;
• GLOBFLOOD for floods across the globe but only using low
resolution hence could not pick Ethiopian floods;
• DROUGHTLOOK for droughts mainly for China;
• CROPLOOK for crop harvest potential forecasting
• GROUNDBUCK for the ground water estimation for Europe;

29. ITC
(University
of Twente)
The delegation identified the following potential areas of
collaboration:
• Establishment of a GEONET Cast infrastructure in Ethiopia;
• Improvement of the disaster risk monitoring (drought
monitoring, flood modelling, crop monitoring, fire hazard
monitoring)
• Improvement of the quality/timeliness of weather data
• Land cover mapping in relation to climate change
• Capacity Building

30. Alterra
(University of
Wegeningen)
The following areas of interests identified:
• Climate change studies ( better understand the effects
of climate change on the availability of water
resources, rainfall monitoring, agricultural
production) in the Horn of Africa and further
strengthen the implementation of Ethiopia's National
Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)

31. Alterra (University
of Wegeningen)
…Contd
• Water resources management:
Opportunities for collaborating in the
implementation /scale up of land/water
resources participatory management
processes can be explored. Linkages
with MERET considered.

32. Alterra
(University of
Wegeningen) …
Contd
• Crop monitoring (in particular, the
algorithms to determine the optimal
planting decades) Peter Heofsloot will be the
focal point for WFP and the GoE in the
follow up process with Alterra.

33. LEAP
special
training
Four members of the mission, three from DRMFSS and
one from Research attended LEAP special training
Objectives:
To train GoE technical staff on
• the use and configuration of LEAP server, including data
acquisition and processing of raw remote sensing data;
• the processing, interpretation and analysis of LEAP
outputs data;
• LEAP software troubleshooting, problem resolution and
general technical backstopping.

34. LEAP
special
training
…
Contd
The first agenda of the discussion was about the
brief introduction of LEAP made by the soft ware
developer: Peter Hoesfloot followed by practicing
some major practical exercises, instructed by Peter
Hoefsloot. A first list of activities for LEAP
software refinement and further development also
compiled together with the GoE representatives.
The list will integrate LEAP 2010-2011 work plan.

35. There was a
meeting
with Michel
Massart
(JRC) and
his collogue
Objective:
to discuss potential collaboration between WFP, GoE
and JRC in support of the Ethiopian Risk
Management Framework

36. meeting
with
JRC …
Contd
The following areas for possible future collaborations were
identified:
• Flood index development for LEAP (Ad de Roo, JRC) –
Alternative approach to MODIS developed by ITHACA
• HEA validation exercise and integration into LEAP
• Improvement of the LEAP data inputs, i.e. provision of
remote sensing imagery through ESA.

37. In the afternoon,
there was a
discussion on the
way forward for
further
development and
implementation
of LEAP software
Points of the way forward was as follows
• Updating some existing elements of LEAP: such as
modifying Ethiopia map as per the recent changes; Strengthening
data set that enable LEAP to perform Climate Change studies;
Incorporate ERA40 regenerated dataset for the period 1960-
2000 in to existing LEAP dataset which is from 1995-2010;
setting appropriate thresholds; considering some important
perennial crops like coffee; integrating LEAP and LIAS;
Integrating the different available methods of forage production
and production deviation are the major ones.HEA validation
exercise and integration into LEAP

38. Points of the way
forward …
Contd
• Validation and expansion of LEAP’
application: by using ground truth; by
comparing LEAP output with EARS,
WaterWach and others; Generate Intermediate
and Final outputs using seasonal forecasts
(NMA, IRI), Predicting crop and rangeland
production variation based on prediction of
climate variability (inclusion of Climate Change
database 1980-2050), Compare forage
production and production deviation outputs of
LEAP with ground generated data/info.

39. Points of the way
forward …
Contd
Server
• Server needs to be installed in Addis
• Then (remotely from Amsterdam)
Peter will install the server side
software
• Server in Amsterdam will provide
backup in case server in Addis fails.

40. Points of the way
forward …
Contd
. Manual and Tutorial improvements
Other related activities by
• NMA will provide meteorological data throughout the
year. Complete records and checked.
• Update of Kc and Ky values for all crops from
Ethiopian research stations (Teff; EIAR)
• Update the database at the Woreda level (change zonal
spreadsheet to Woreda spreadsheet).

41. THANK YOU