The Dynamics of social and political moods in Ukraine

Public Opinion Survey
Residents of
Ukraine

February 17 - March 7, 2012

International Republican Institute
Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization
Rating Group Ukraine
with funding from the National Endowment for Democracy

1

Methodology
The survey was conducted by the Public Opinion and Market research company Baltic Surveys/Gallup on
behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine.
The sample consisted of 1,201 permanent residents of Ukraine older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote
and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion.

The sample design was a multi-stage random sample:
Stage one: Ukraine is divided into 27 official administrative regions (25 regions of Ukraine,
Kyiv and Sevastopol). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed.
Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes
according to the size of population (City more than one million, 500,000-999,000, 50,000-
499,000, 50,000-99,000, 50,000 and less, village)
Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was
proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each
region. The survey was conducted in 90settlements.
Stage three: primary sampling units were described. The closest birthday rule was used for
selection of the respondent. The households were selected using the random route method.

Data were collected on February 17 – March 7, 2012, through face-to-face interviews with the respondents.
The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent.
Response rate – 56 percent.

IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, February-March 2012 2

MOOD OF UKRAINE


Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction
or wrong direction?

March 2011 13 73 14

Nov 2011 13 71 16

0 20 40 60 80 100

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer


Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right
direction or wrong direction?

100
10
15 14 17
90

80 Don't know, no answer

70

60

50 78 69 72 Wrong direction
72
40

30

20 Right direction

10
16 14
12 11
0
West Center South East

5
IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, February-March 2012

Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed?

March 2012 1 6 39 34 18 2

Nov 2011 1 6 37 36 18 2

0 20 40 60 80 100
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same
Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer


Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed?

100 2 3 2
3

90 18 15 16
Don't know, no answer
24
80

Worsened a lot
70
34 33
35
60
33 Worsened somewhat

50

Stayed the same
40

30
39 42 Improved somewhat
39
35
20

Improved a lot
10
5 7 5
1 1 5 2
0

7

In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine to
change?

March 2012 1 8 32 32 15 12

13
Nov 2011 1 7 30 32 17

0 20 40 60 80 100

Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know, no answer


In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will
change?

100
9 11
13 14
90
17 13
80 12
18
Worsen a lot
70

60 28
35 39 Worsen somewhat
26
50

Stay the same
40

30 35 Improve somewhat
33
32 28
20
Improve a lot
10
8 9
7 9
0 1 2

9

Regardless of your passport, what nationality do you consider yourself to be?

March 2012 76 11 9 31

Nov 2011 74 12 10 22

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Ukrainian Russian Soviet Other Don't know, no answer

10

Regardless of your passport, what nationality do you consider yourself to be?

100 2 2
1 3 4 1
3
6 7
90 16
4
12
80

70 19
19 Other

60

50 Soviet
94
86
40

30 62 Russian
58

20
Ukrainian
10

0

11

ISSUES


Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following
methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?

Collecting signatures for
69 25 6
petition, letter

Legal demonstrations 58 34 8

Legal strikes 53 38 9

Boycott 46 44 10

Demonstrations without
29 62 9
permission

Strikes without permission 28 63 9

Blocking of major roads 21 70 9

Occupation of buildings or
17 75 8
enterprises

Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion


West Ukraine

74 21 5
petition, letter



Boycott 53 40 7

29 64 7
permission



17 75 8
enterprises



Center Ukraine

68 23 9
petition, letter



Boycott 42 46 12

30 58 12
permission



18 71 11
enterprises



South Ukraine

55 38 6
petition, letter



Boycott 29 58 13

18 72 10
permission



10 81 9
enterprises



East Ukraine

75 22 3
petition, letter



Boycott 55 37 8

34 59 7
permission



20 74 6
enterprises



Should Ukraine cooperate with the United States on the following issues or not?

Science 82 11 7

Healthcare 80 12 7

Economics and trade
78 14 8
issues

Social sphere 71 17 12

Rule of law and
63 23 14
democratic development

Military cooperation 43 43 14

0 20 40 60 80 100
Should cooperate Should not cooperate Don't know, no answer


West Ukraine

Healthcare 88 7 5

Economics and trade
84 9 7
issues

Science 82 11 7


Rule of law and
63 23 14


0 20 40 60 80 100


Center Ukraine

Science 78 13 9

Economics and trade
78 13 9
issues

Healthcare 75 17 8


Rule of law and
60 26 14


0 20 40 60 80 100


South Ukraine

Science 81 9 10

Healthcare 80 10 10

Economics and trade
79 10 11
issues


Rule of law and
59 23 18


0 20 40 60 80 100


East Ukraine

Science 80 14 6

Healthcare 80 14 6

Economics and trade
73 20 7
issues


Rule of law and
59 28 13


0 20 40 60 80 100


Do you approve or disapprove the practice of appointing officials from Donbas to
serve as heads of local state administrations or in other administration positions in
your city/region?*

March 2012 3 12 19 44 22

Nov 2011 4 10 22 47 17

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know, no answer

*It is unprecedented that a President would appoint officials to regional
positions across Ukraine almost exclusively from one oblast, which happens to
be his home oblast.


Do you approve or disapprove the practice of appointing officials from Donbas to serve as
heads of local state administrations or in other administration positions in your city/region?

100

90 17 20
24 26
80

70
Strongly disapprove

60 26
48
59 44
50 Somewhat disapprove

40 16

Somewhat approve
30

20 20 23 26
18 Strongly approve
10
9 6
5 6
0 1 3 3

24

What is your opinion about the idea that heads of state administrations should be
elected by the citizens, not appointed by the president?

March 2012 33 33 7 6 21

Nov 2011 40 32 8 6 14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negative Very negative Don't know, no answer


What is your opinion about the idea that heads of state administrations should be
elected by the citizens, not appointed by the president?

100
14
90 18
23
27 Don't know, no answer
8
80 5
5 5 7
70 5 Very negative
9
9
60
32
36
50 Somewhat negative
33
30
40

Somewhat positive
30

20 41
36
28 28 Very positive
10

0

26

Would you support the international community freezing the international assets of
and suspending visas for Ukrainian officials, including judges, engaged in corrupt
practices?

March 2012 57 25 3 3 12

Nov 2011 59 22 4 2 13

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don't know, no answer


Would you support the international community freezing the international assets of and
suspending visas for Ukrainian officials, including judges, engaged in corrupt practices?

100
10 9 11
90 17
4 3 4
3 2 Don't know, no answer
2 3
80 4

22 25
70
29 Strongly oppose
23
60

50 Somewhat oppose

40

Somewhat support
30 61 60
54 53
20
Strongly support
10

0

28

If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be
with?

March 2012 36 43 4 17

Nov 2011 42 40 3 15

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

The European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know, no answer


If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, who should it be
with?

100

16 14
90 20 20
3
80 6
5 3

70 15
Other
60 34

50 64
60
Customs Union with
40 Russia, Belarus and
Kazakhstan
30 63

20 41 The European Union

10 17 19

0

30

Do you think Ukraine should give away part or its entire gas transportation system to
Russia if it would mean a reduction in the import price Ukraine pays for gas?

March 2012 2 7 74 3 14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Yes, should give its entire gas transportation system
Yes, should give part of its gas transportation system
No, should not give away its gas transportation system
Other


Do you think Ukraine should give away part or its entire gas transportation system
to Russia if it would mean a reduction in the import price Ukraine pays for gas?

100
10 13 15 18
90 2 Don't know, no answer
2
2
80 4

Other
70

60
No, should not give
50 away its gas
74
84 74 65 transportation system
40
Yes, should give part of
its gas transportation
30
system

20 Yes, should give its
entire gas transportation
10 system
7 11
6
4 4 3 2
0

32

Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for
Ukraine?
All mentioned issues

Unemployment 54
Low industry production 43
Corruption within the state bodies 39
Control over price growth 35
Social protection for poor 25
Political instability 19
Government incompetence 17
Crime 14
Relations with Russia 12
Delay in salary/pension payments 9
Hryvnia devaluation 6
Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water 6
Rights to land ownership 5
Russian Black Sea Navy presence 3
Russian language status 2
Other 4
Difficult to answer, no answer 1


Ukraine? November 2011

Unemployment 52
Crime 13
Other 3


Ukraine?
All mentioned issues, West Ukraine

Unemployment 60
Crime 14
Other 5


Ukraine?
All mentioned issues, Center Ukraine

Unemployment 47
Crime 14
Other 4


Ukraine?
All mentioned issues, South Ukraine

Unemployment 56
Crime 13
Other 2


Ukraine?
All mentioned issues, East Ukraine

Unemployment 54







Crime 13







Other 3


you personally?

Unemployment 51
Crime 13
Other 8


you personally? November 2011

Unemployment 46
Crime 13
Other 7


you personally?
All mentioned issues, West Ukraine
Unemployment 62




Crime 15




Other 13


you personally?
All mentioned issues, Center Ukraine

Unemployment 43
Crime 13
Other 8


you personally?
All mentioned issues, South Ukraine


Unemployment 53



Crime 9




Other 4


you personally?
All mentioned issues, East Ukraine
Unemployment 49




Crime 14





Other 9


POLITICS


How do you think the 2012 parliamentary elections will be?

March 2012 4 16 35 29 16

Nov 2011 3 15 36 27 19

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Absolutely free and fair Somewhat free and fair Somewhat not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know, no answer


How do you think the 2012 parliamentary elections will be?

100

13 14 17 Don't know, no
90 21 answer

80

29 Absolutely not free
70 26 and fair
37 22
60
Somewhat not free
50 and fair

40 35 33
43 Somewhat free and
31
30 fair

20

20 Absolutely free and
13 19
10 fair
12
2 5 3 3
0

47

Which candidate are you more likely to support in the parliamentary elections from
your district?

March 2012 28 45 27

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Candidate who pays more attention to the solution of problems of development of Ukraine

Candidate who pays more attention to the solution of economic problems of your district

It does not matter to me


Which candidate are you more likely to support in the parliamentary elections
from your district?

100
14 It does not matter to
90 me
27 29
36
80

70

60 55 Candidate who pays
more attention to the
50 47 40 solution of economic
problems of your
39 district
40

30
Candidate who pays
more attention to the
20 solution of problems
31 31 of development of
25 26
10 Ukraine

0

49

If you learn that a candidate you support in the parliamentary elections from your
district is involved in corruption how would this affect you?

March 2012 3 17 69 11

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Most likely will vote for this candidate anyway
Your decision will depend on the seriousness of the corruption accusation
Most likely will not vote for this candidate
Difficult to say


If you learn that a candidate you support in the parliamentary elections from your
district is involved in corruption how would this affect you?

100
11 10 13 10 Difficult to say
90

80

70 Most likely will not
vote for this candidate
60
67 67
72 67
50
Your decision will
40 depend on the
seriousness of the
corruption accusation
30

20 Most likely will vote
for this candidate
18 anyway
20 14
10 20

2 4 5
0

51

If you learn that the list of the political party you support in the parliamentary
elections contains candidates involved in corruption, how would this affect you?

March 2012 5 22 62 11

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Most likely will vote for this political party anyway
Your decision will depend on the seriousness of the corruption accusation
Most likely will not vote for this political party
Difficult to say


MASS MEDIA


Which of these sources do you use for obtaining political information?
Ukraine

TV news, programs 95
95

Articles in newspapers 36
40

Radio news, programs 34
40

Relatives, friends 30
34

Internet 29
25

Colleagues at work 11
13 March 2012
Articles in magazines 8 Nov 2011
9

Billboards, stands in the streets 7
6

Leaflets and the other free information by post 4
3

Meetings with politicians 2
2

Other 1
1

None 0
1


Which of these sources do you use for obtaining political information?
97
TV news, programs 94
94
40 96
Articles in newspapers 38
28
36
35
Radio news, programs 26 41
30
28
Relatives, friends 29
39
28
24
Internet 28
25
36
12 West Ukraine
Colleagues at work 12
15
8 Center Ukraine
8
Articles in magazines 8 South Ukraine
9
6 East Ukraine
9
Billboards, stands in the streets 7
5 7
7
Leaflets and the other free information by post 45
2
24
Meetings with politicians
12
11
Other 9
2

None 1

IRI, NED, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization, Sociological group “Rating” UKRAINIAN RESIDENTS SURVEY, February-March 2012 55

How many times per week do you access the Internet?
Ukraine

March 2012 25 4 4 6 4 56 1

Nov 2011 19 6 7 7 5 54 2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never Don't know, no answer

How many times per week do you access the Internet?

West 23 4 4 8 5 54 2

Center 26 4 4 5 3 57 1

South 19 4 4 7 4 61 1

East 30 5 6 4 2 51 2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never Don't know, no answer


Where do you most often regularly access the Internet?
(Users of Internet, N=534)

89
At home
79

23
At work
30

4
At relatives/ friends home
7

1
At Internet café
3

2 March 2012, N=518
Other Nov 2011, N=534
3

0
4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


Where do you most often regularly access the Internet?
(Users of Internet, N=518)

89
At home 88
89
92

13
28
At work 27
22
West
5
At relatives/ friends home 5 Center
3
5 South
East
1
3
At Internet café 2
0

2
Other 2
1
1

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100


SELF-PERCEIVED
SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS


What can you say about the financial status of your family?

March 2012 11 31 36 17 31

Nov 2011 12 30 41 14 21

Need to save money for food

Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes

Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as
a good suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner
Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for
purchasing more expensive things such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator
Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for
purchases like a car or an apartment
I can buy anything at any time

Don't know, no response


What can you say about the financial status of your family?


SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS


Gender

Male
45%

Female
55%

Age groups
18-29
23%

50+
43%

30-49
34%


Education

University, higher Primary
26% 2%
Non-complete higher Non-complete
4% secondary
4%

Vocational secondary General secondary
39% 25%

Membership in a political party or non-governmental
organization (NGO)
Member of NGO
0.5%

Member of a party None
2% 97%


Religion
Greek Catholic Believe in God but don't
10% belong to any religion
9%

Other
3%

DK/NA
Orthodox 1%
72% Atheist
5%

Attendance of religious service
Once a month A few times per year
14% 55%

Once a week
7%

A few times a week
2% Never
22%


Sector of employment
State sector
17% Public non-government
sector
Private sector 1%
29%

Don't work
53%

Blue collar Occupation
Farmer White collar
26% 1% 15% Higher and medium
Other level executive
4% 2%

Unemployed
11%
Housewife
Student Pensioner
8%
2% 31%


Ethnicity

Ukrainian
81%
Other
4%

Russian
15%

Language usually spoken at home
Ukrainian
Russian and other 45%
language equally
1.0%

Ukrainian and other
language equally
0.1%

Ukrainian and Russian
equally
15% Russian
39%


The Dynamics of social and political moods in Ukraine

The Dynamics of social and political moods in Ukraine

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