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Looking into the
Crystal Ball of Health Care Reform:



Patient Protection and Affordable
         Care Act (PPACA)
 and the Allied Health Professions
                     Carolyn Watts, Ph.D.
                        Professor and Chair
 Department of Health Administration, Virginia Commonwealth University
Poll:
Knowledge and Attitudes
Primary Question:
Is Health Care a “Social Good”?

            YES for elderly, certain
                                       YES for most
            low income
                                       Americans
     NO     individuals, disabled



          1965                   2014
Financing Context
                 $8300/person
                                                      Mixed public/private




                                                               50%
                  17%
                of GDP (in 2009)




Medicare                           Medicaid         Employers                Uninsured




  15%                               20%                67%                     18%
of population                    of population      of non-elderly           of population




                          Up to 2/3 of all births
Delivery System Context
                    Volume-
                     based
                    payment




         Illness
          – not
        health –
       based care



                 Decades
                     of
                profession
                 al control
Proposed
                  by 6
               presidents

Crowd-out of
                                Rising un-
other public
 programs                      employment


               Pressure
                  for
                Reform
                                  Rising
 Increasing                    enrollment in
expenditures                      public
                                programs

               Fragile state
                of delivery
                 system
Cost as % of
            income at all               Global
            time high                  business
            • 12.6% in 1996          disadvantage
            • 23.2% in 2010




Approaching
                                                      Changing
national debt
                                                    demographics
     cliff
                                More
                              Pressures
Still More Pressures

Rise of chronic illness/obesity
                  More evidence/information

                                  New technology
What Did We Expect?
Health Care Reform: PPACA


  Individual     Employer
  mandates     responsibility
• Subsidies    • Tax credits
• Fines        • Fines
PPACA
          • Limits on underwriting and exclusions
          • Older dependent children coverage
Insurance
   rules  • 2018: tax on first dollar coverage


          • “Expedia” for private insurance
Exchanges
          • States or federal government (default)
PPACA
                    • Eliminate categories; 133% FPL
                    • Federal government pays 100% for 3
    Medicaid          years
   expansion




                    •   “Donut Hole”
                    •   Preventive services
   Medicare         •   Provider payment reductions
 payment cuts;
benefit increases   •   Increases in Medicare payroll tax
PPACA
                 • Accountable Care Organizations
 Delivery and
                 • Bundled payment
  payment
demonstrations
                 • Innovation Center


                 • Incentives for employers
  Wellness
                 • Mandated coverage of prevention
PPACA: Myths

  All Americans must have
  coverage

   Exemptions for:
   • Very low income
   • Insurance costs > 8% of income
   • Religious
     beliefs, incarceration, Native
     Americans
PPACA: Myths


Everyone must have the
same coverage

• Essential benefit package as floor
• Choices through
  employer/exchange
PPACA: More Myths

   All businesses must provide
   coverage

   •   Small businesses (< 50 employees) exempt
   •   = 96% of 6M businesses
   •   96% of other businesses already do
   •   10,000 businesses (.2%) will be affected
…and More Myths

    Government will take over
    insurance
    • MUST contract with at least 2
      private insurance companies in
      every US market
…and More Myths
 Medicare benefits will be
 drastically cut

 •   Increases for traditional Medicare
       • Drug coverage
       • Preventive services
 •   Reduced payments for Medicare
     HMOs
…Still More Myths

   “Death Panels” will limit care
   provided

   • Funding of new evidence base, but CMS
     prohibited from using it
   • Pres. G.W. Bush-era legislation allows
     coverage of integrated advance planning
   • Independent coverage of advance planning
     taken out of PPACA
So Far….



54M       Saved $3.7B on
                           3M
                           Young adults
                                           $321M
                                           Insurance rebates to small
                                                                        54M
                                                                        People got newly
          drugs
seniors                    new dependent   businesses (more to big      free preventive
                           coverage        business)                    services
Evolving government
         role


Evolving employer role




                         Future
  Evolving insurance
       markets


   Evolving delivery
       system


Evolving consumer role



 Evolving technology
Future

     Evolving
  government role

Impact of    States and     Medicare
elections     Medicaid    payment/rules
Future
      Evolving employer
             role
   Insurance
                           What if they         Wellness
 coverage and
                         drop coverage?         programs
benefit changes


                                           Harvard study: $3.72 HC
 Value-based insurance         So         savings, $2.73 absenteeism
        design                what?        savings from $1 wellness
                                                    program
Future

  Evolving insurance
       markets

                                              Provider
                 Integration      Impact of
Consolidation                                 payment
                with providers   exchanges
                                              changes
Future

       Evolving delivery
           system

Consolidation
                 Physician   Scope of                   Retail
     and                                Transparency
                employment   practice                  medicine
 integration
Future

Evolving consumer
       role
Responsibility
                 Responsibility
 for health &
                  for financing
   metrics
Future

               Evolving
              technology

Genetic         New
                             Robotics   Telemedicine   E-medicine
medicine   pharmaceuticals
What are the Opportunities for Allied Health?

                         Greater
                         demand


           Different
                                       Expanding
           payment
                                       Medicaid (?)
            models


                       OPPORTUNITIES
                         for ALLIED
                          HEALTH




             More                       Evolving
           consumer                     scope of
          engagement                    practice


                       Team-based
                        medicine
What are the Challenges for Allied Health?


                                    Different
                Lower
                                    payment
             payment rates
                                     models



     More
 concentrated
                                                 Shrinking
   interests
                                                Medicaid (?)
(payers, syste
      ms)
                       CHALLENGES
PPACA and the Future of Allied Health

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PPACA and the Future of Allied Health

  • 1. Looking into the Crystal Ball of Health Care Reform: Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and the Allied Health Professions Carolyn Watts, Ph.D. Professor and Chair Department of Health Administration, Virginia Commonwealth University
  • 3. Primary Question: Is Health Care a “Social Good”? YES for elderly, certain YES for most low income Americans NO individuals, disabled 1965 2014
  • 4. Financing Context $8300/person Mixed public/private 50% 17% of GDP (in 2009) Medicare Medicaid Employers Uninsured 15% 20% 67% 18% of population of population of non-elderly of population Up to 2/3 of all births
  • 5. Delivery System Context Volume- based payment Illness – not health – based care Decades of profession al control
  • 6. Proposed by 6 presidents Crowd-out of Rising un- other public programs employment Pressure for Reform Rising Increasing enrollment in expenditures public programs Fragile state of delivery system
  • 7. Cost as % of income at all Global time high business • 12.6% in 1996 disadvantage • 23.2% in 2010 Approaching Changing national debt demographics cliff More Pressures
  • 8. Still More Pressures Rise of chronic illness/obesity More evidence/information New technology
  • 9. What Did We Expect?
  • 10. Health Care Reform: PPACA Individual Employer mandates responsibility • Subsidies • Tax credits • Fines • Fines
  • 11. PPACA • Limits on underwriting and exclusions • Older dependent children coverage Insurance rules • 2018: tax on first dollar coverage • “Expedia” for private insurance Exchanges • States or federal government (default)
  • 12. PPACA • Eliminate categories; 133% FPL • Federal government pays 100% for 3 Medicaid years expansion • “Donut Hole” • Preventive services Medicare • Provider payment reductions payment cuts; benefit increases • Increases in Medicare payroll tax
  • 13. PPACA • Accountable Care Organizations Delivery and • Bundled payment payment demonstrations • Innovation Center • Incentives for employers Wellness • Mandated coverage of prevention
  • 14. PPACA: Myths All Americans must have coverage Exemptions for: • Very low income • Insurance costs > 8% of income • Religious beliefs, incarceration, Native Americans
  • 15. PPACA: Myths Everyone must have the same coverage • Essential benefit package as floor • Choices through employer/exchange
  • 16. PPACA: More Myths All businesses must provide coverage • Small businesses (< 50 employees) exempt • = 96% of 6M businesses • 96% of other businesses already do • 10,000 businesses (.2%) will be affected
  • 17. …and More Myths Government will take over insurance • MUST contract with at least 2 private insurance companies in every US market
  • 18. …and More Myths Medicare benefits will be drastically cut • Increases for traditional Medicare • Drug coverage • Preventive services • Reduced payments for Medicare HMOs
  • 19. …Still More Myths “Death Panels” will limit care provided • Funding of new evidence base, but CMS prohibited from using it • Pres. G.W. Bush-era legislation allows coverage of integrated advance planning • Independent coverage of advance planning taken out of PPACA
  • 20. So Far…. 54M Saved $3.7B on 3M Young adults $321M Insurance rebates to small 54M People got newly drugs seniors new dependent businesses (more to big free preventive coverage business) services
  • 21. Evolving government role Evolving employer role Future Evolving insurance markets Evolving delivery system Evolving consumer role Evolving technology
  • 22. Future Evolving government role Impact of States and Medicare elections Medicaid payment/rules
  • 23. Future Evolving employer role Insurance What if they Wellness coverage and drop coverage? programs benefit changes Harvard study: $3.72 HC Value-based insurance So savings, $2.73 absenteeism design what? savings from $1 wellness program
  • 24. Future Evolving insurance markets Provider Integration Impact of Consolidation payment with providers exchanges changes
  • 25. Future Evolving delivery system Consolidation Physician Scope of Retail and Transparency employment practice medicine integration
  • 26. Future Evolving consumer role Responsibility Responsibility for health & for financing metrics
  • 27. Future Evolving technology Genetic New Robotics Telemedicine E-medicine medicine pharmaceuticals
  • 28. What are the Opportunities for Allied Health? Greater demand Different Expanding payment Medicaid (?) models OPPORTUNITIES for ALLIED HEALTH More Evolving consumer scope of engagement practice Team-based medicine
  • 29. What are the Challenges for Allied Health? Different Lower payment payment rates models More concentrated Shrinking interests Medicaid (?) (payers, syste ms) CHALLENGES