The document discusses challenges related to teacher quality and supply in Pennsylvania and surrounding states. It finds that while Pennsylvania has an annual surplus of teacher graduates, there are shortages in certain geographic areas and subject areas. As a result, many high-poverty and urban schools have less experienced teachers and higher rates of teachers on emergency permits. The document also projects that student enrollment will increase substantially in coming years at the same time that the number of teacher graduates is declining. This threatens to exacerbate existing inequities in access to effective teachers between high-poverty and low-poverty schools.

1. The Challenge of Ensuring
Teacher Quality and Supply
Nancy A. Doorey
Presented to:
Pennsylvania Conference on Teacher Quality and Supply Issues
September 26, 2002

2. One-Year Effects of Different Teachers on
Low Achieving Students
Average Student Gains over One Year
60
53
50 Least
Effective
40
Teachers
(bottom 20%)
30
Expected Annual Gain: 25 points Most
Effective
20
Teachers (top
14
20%)
10
0
Least Most
Sanders & Rivers, 1996

3. Three-Year Teacher Effects
20
76% 76%
10
Student Percentile Scores
0
6
0
Least Effectiv e
-10
Teachers
MATH READING Most Effective
T eachers
-20
42%
-30
27% Dallas, TX: Jordan
Mnendro & Weerasinghe,
-40 1997.

4. Performance on Graduation Test Linked to
Effectiveness of Teachers
100
-- 76 - 100%
Predicted Competency Means
90 4th grade
80 -- 51 - 75%
PASS 4th grade
70
-- 26 - 50%
60
4th grade
50
-- 0 - 25 %
40 4th grade
Low Avg. High
Effectivess Levels of 4 Consecutive Teachers

5. Teacher Quality in PA
 New policies enacted:
• Higher basic verbal and math skills
(PRAXIS)

6. Long-Range Effects of Low-Scoring and High-
Scoring Teachers on Student Achievement
2
1.5
(standard deviation
Student Score
1 Low teachers,
0.5
high students
units)
0
1 3 5 7 9 11
High teachers,
-0.5 low students
-1
-1.5
-2
Grades 1 - 11
Ferguson & Brown, 1998

7. Teacher Quality in PA, cont’d
• Increased content knowledge for secondary
teachers
• 1 year induction
• On-going professional development

8. Teacher Supply in PA
 PA has annual surplus of teachers
• 10,500 new graduates
• 4,000 vacancies
 Shortages by geographic location and
certification area

9. Emergency Permits in PA,
2001-2002 (Type 01- vacancy)
Elementary Educ. 1,994
Mentally/Phys. Handicapped 961
Mathematics 190
Spanish 171
English 100
Early childhood 94
Chemistry 89
PA Dept. of Education, August 2002

10. Emergency Permits
Increasing in PA
Emergency Permits in PA
Type 01 Vacancy in Classroom
5000
4500 4320
4000
3814
number of teachers
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
953
500
0
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02
PA DOE, August 2002

11. Impact on Urban Children
 Philadelphia: every
7th classroom
 York: every 10th
classroom
 Harrisburg: every 10th
classroom
has a teacher on emergency permit.
PA DOE, August, 2002

12. Unequal Access to
Effective Teachers
 31% of schools in PA are high-poverty schools
 These schools enroll 25% of PA students
 11% of teachers in these schools are first-year
teachers, and 39% have five years of
experience or less
PA DOE 2002 profiles

13. Teacher transfers increase
problem of equity
Teacher Transfers in Texas, 1993-1996 for
Teachers Who Moved from Urban to
Suburban Schools
20
14
15 Change in
10 School's
Average %
Percent Change
5
Poverty
0
Change in
-5
School's
-10 Average
-15 Student
Achievement
-20
Level
-25
-24.3
-30

14. Challenges Ahead in PA
 High school enrollment projected to increase by
17,000 students over 5 years in PA, and by 114,000
in contiguous states
 Teacher graduates down by 15.9% over past five
years, and increased standards may reduce supply
further
 Roughly half of PA students do not meet state
standards in reading and math
 256 schools in PA and 1,714 in contiguous states
were listed as “in School Improvement” under NCLB

15. The Regional Context
Increased HS enrollment
Number schools in NCLB
School Improvement
+34,000
% secondary students 529 52%
meeting state standards
+17,000
256 48% +52,000
+18,000 274 12%
760 12%
+1,000
-1,000 20 45%
13 +10,000
118 56%
NCES, Oct. 2002 US DOE July 1, 2002 State Web sites, gr. 8-11

16. NCES Projected Enrollment Increase
For Grades 9 - 12
2001 - 2006
More than 40% of secondary students are
90,000 not meeting current state standards
80,000
80,000
Projected increase in enrollment
70,000
60,000 52,000
48,000
50,000
40,000 34,000
30,000
17,000 18,000 15,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
1,000
0
DE MD PA OH NY NJ NC SC TX

17. How will schools and districts respond
to increased pressure to raise
achievement?

18. Questions for
Policymakers
 How can each state improve teacher
quality while ensuring adequate supply?
 Are states better off pursuing teacher
quality competitively or cooperatively?
 In which areas would regional
collaboration add value?

19. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Teacher Project
MARTP Priorities
1. Create full regional reciprocity,
especially for experienced teachers
3. Raise standards for teacher licensure
in coordinated fashion
5. Create Meritorious New Teacher
certificate based on highest
standards

20. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Teacher Project
MARTP Priorities
1. Coordinate electronic hiring halls and
promote use
3. Collaborate on data collection, labor
market tracking, and evaluation of
strategies

21. Our shared goal:
A high quality teacher for every
classroom, every child.