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THE BIGGEST MISTAKE YOU CAN MAKE
IN ANALYTICS OF GAME
VASILIY SABIROV
LEAD ANALYST & CO-FOUNDER
We love games. We understand the process of game development and the needs of
game studios.
From marketing to game design - devtodev provides you with valuable insights for any
role and any side of game development.
devtodev for game studios
www.devtodev.com
PRODUCER ANALYST ACQUISITION
MANAGER
GAME
DESIGNER
ANALYTICS
ALLOWS YOU TO
EVALUATE
the state of the project
OPTIMIZE
the project
FIND
bottlenecks
IDENTIFY
points of growth
Many developers only pay attention to
two basic indicators:
▧ VISITS
Or installs.
▧ GROSS REVENUE
The entire amount of
income before any
deductions are made.
ANALYTICS IS IMPORTANT AT ALL
STAGES OF PRODUCT
DEVELOPMENT: BOTH BEFORE
AND AFTER THE PRODUCT
LAUNCH.
CASE: A SUDDEN DECLINE OF METRICS
WHY CAN THIS
HAPPEN?
THERE ARE
SEVERAL
POSSIBLE
REASONS
You don’t understand...
▨ product quality indicators
▨ retention indicators
▨ the structure of money
▨ bottlenecks
▨ traffic
YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND
PRODUCT QUALITY INDICATORS
▨ Sessions per user - a user’s average
number of sessions during some period of
time
▨ Lifetime - the average number of days
between the first and last app visit
▨ LTV - the revenue an average user
generates during his or her lifetime
▨ ARPU - average revenue per active user
▨ ARPPU - average revenue per paying user
▨ Paying share - the share of paying users
INCREASING RETENTION BY
5% GROWS INCOME
BY OVER 25%
source
YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND
RETENTION INDICATORS
A successful project must have good retention.
Long-term retention is even more important than
short-term retention, because the longer users use
the app, the more likely they are to pay.
▨ Day 1 retention - “first impression”
▨ Day 7 retention - “main cycle”
▨ Day 28/30 retention - “metagame”
▨ Rolling retention
RULE 1. DISTINGUISH BETWEEN QUALITY AND
QUANTITY METRICS
▨ Qualitative metrics = the quality of the product
▨ Quantitative metrics = the scale of the product
▨ Quantitative metrics (DAU, New Users, Revenue)
must grow
RULE 2. QUALITATIVE METRICS USUALLY
DECREASE WHEN YOU DON’T DO ANYTHING
YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND
BOTTLENECKS
▨ EVENTS
▨ FUNNELS
▨ SEGMENTATION
TRAFFIC ANALYSIS
▨ CPI
▨ ROI
▨ PAYBACK PERIOD
YOU DON’T SEE THE STRUCTURE OF MONEY:
USE SEGMENTATION
RULE 3.
FIND THE CONVERSION
BOTTLENECKS
RULE 4.
CONTINUOUSLY ANALYZE TRAFFIC.
RULE 5.
KNOW THE STRUCTURE OF
YOUR MONEY
▨ ARPU = paying share * ARPPU
▨ Revenue = MAU * ARPU
▨ LTV = F(retention, ARPU)
First increase LTV, then add traffic.
RULE 6.
LTV BASED APPROACH
First increase LTV, then add traffic.
RULE 7.
MODEL INCOME AND
SEEK TO MULTIPLY GROWTH
▨ The cost of a user = 1 USD
▨ The user brings 1.1 USD
▨ We have 100 users.
▨ Let’s reduce the cost of one user to 0.9 USD
Result: income doubles.
RULE 8.
EXPLORE ECONOMY OF YOUR GAME
▨ game level / game location
◍ complexity curve
▨ virtual currency
◍ spent / earned / bought / stored in the account
◍ distribution among levels
▨ virtual goods
◍ in-game purchases / purchases for real money
▨ time
THE STRUCTURE OF
CONSUMER BASKET
▨ Measure it:
◍ in general
◍ by levels
◍ by segments of users
▨ Search for unusual behavior, peaks
and declines
▨ Correlate with price and availability
▨ Substitutes and complements
▨ Demand stability
▨ Basket dynamics
ABC-ANALYSIS
DEMAND STABILITY: XYZ-
ANALYSIS
ABC-XYZ ANALYSIS
source
RULE 9.
SEGMENT YOUR PLAYERS
▨ Paying / non-paying
▨ One payment / repeated payments
▨ Activated / unactivated
▨ New users / old users
▨ Frequent visitors / rare visitors
▨ Completed tutorial / skipped tutorial
▨ Source 1 / source 2
▨ Entered the shop / didn’t enter the shop
▨ Combinations of different parameters
RULE 10. MONITOR INDICATORS
▨ How to save money? Start recording all expenses.
▨ How to lose weight? Start recording everything you eat.
▨ How to maximize a project’s revenue?
RULE 11.
REVENUE IS NOT THE MAIN KPI FOR YOU
It’s better to focus not on revenue. Game analyst should replace revenue chart with the set of curves:
▨ Retention curve;
▨ LTV curve;
▨ Economy balance curves;
▨ Complexity curve etc.
TO SUM UP
▨ yes, we need to maximize the revenue;
▨ no, we don’t need to look at the revenue every day;
▨ biggest mistake is to focus on quantity, not on quality;
▨ it’s better to increase quality metrics first;
▨ dig deeper to find bottlenecks and points of growth;
▨ analytics has huge set of tools to increase quality of your game.
www.devtodev.com
Here’s how
we work
In today’s highly competitive F2P market creating a good game is only a part of success. There are
so many problems that developers have to solve during the app lifecycle.
www.devtodev.com
There are so many
problems that game developers
have to solve
THANK YOU!
Vasiliy Sabirov
lead analyst & co-founder
www.devtodev.com
sabirov@devtodev.com
www.devtodev.com

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The Biggest Mistake You Can Make In Analytics of Game

  • 1. THE BIGGEST MISTAKE YOU CAN MAKE IN ANALYTICS OF GAME VASILIY SABIROV LEAD ANALYST & CO-FOUNDER
  • 2. We love games. We understand the process of game development and the needs of game studios. From marketing to game design - devtodev provides you with valuable insights for any role and any side of game development. devtodev for game studios www.devtodev.com PRODUCER ANALYST ACQUISITION MANAGER GAME DESIGNER
  • 3.
  • 4. ANALYTICS ALLOWS YOU TO EVALUATE the state of the project OPTIMIZE the project FIND bottlenecks IDENTIFY points of growth Many developers only pay attention to two basic indicators: ▧ VISITS Or installs. ▧ GROSS REVENUE The entire amount of income before any deductions are made. ANALYTICS IS IMPORTANT AT ALL STAGES OF PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT: BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THE PRODUCT LAUNCH.
  • 5. CASE: A SUDDEN DECLINE OF METRICS
  • 6. WHY CAN THIS HAPPEN? THERE ARE SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS You don’t understand... ▨ product quality indicators ▨ retention indicators ▨ the structure of money ▨ bottlenecks ▨ traffic
  • 7. YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND PRODUCT QUALITY INDICATORS ▨ Sessions per user - a user’s average number of sessions during some period of time ▨ Lifetime - the average number of days between the first and last app visit ▨ LTV - the revenue an average user generates during his or her lifetime ▨ ARPU - average revenue per active user ▨ ARPPU - average revenue per paying user ▨ Paying share - the share of paying users
  • 8. INCREASING RETENTION BY 5% GROWS INCOME BY OVER 25% source YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND RETENTION INDICATORS A successful project must have good retention. Long-term retention is even more important than short-term retention, because the longer users use the app, the more likely they are to pay. ▨ Day 1 retention - “first impression” ▨ Day 7 retention - “main cycle” ▨ Day 28/30 retention - “metagame” ▨ Rolling retention
  • 9. RULE 1. DISTINGUISH BETWEEN QUALITY AND QUANTITY METRICS ▨ Qualitative metrics = the quality of the product ▨ Quantitative metrics = the scale of the product ▨ Quantitative metrics (DAU, New Users, Revenue) must grow
  • 10. RULE 2. QUALITATIVE METRICS USUALLY DECREASE WHEN YOU DON’T DO ANYTHING
  • 11. YOU DON’T UNDERSTAND BOTTLENECKS ▨ EVENTS ▨ FUNNELS ▨ SEGMENTATION
  • 12. TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ▨ CPI ▨ ROI ▨ PAYBACK PERIOD
  • 13. YOU DON’T SEE THE STRUCTURE OF MONEY: USE SEGMENTATION
  • 14. RULE 3. FIND THE CONVERSION BOTTLENECKS RULE 4. CONTINUOUSLY ANALYZE TRAFFIC. RULE 5. KNOW THE STRUCTURE OF YOUR MONEY
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  • 16. ▨ ARPU = paying share * ARPPU ▨ Revenue = MAU * ARPU ▨ LTV = F(retention, ARPU) First increase LTV, then add traffic. RULE 6. LTV BASED APPROACH
  • 17. First increase LTV, then add traffic.
  • 18. RULE 7. MODEL INCOME AND SEEK TO MULTIPLY GROWTH ▨ The cost of a user = 1 USD ▨ The user brings 1.1 USD ▨ We have 100 users. ▨ Let’s reduce the cost of one user to 0.9 USD Result: income doubles.
  • 19. RULE 8. EXPLORE ECONOMY OF YOUR GAME ▨ game level / game location ◍ complexity curve ▨ virtual currency ◍ spent / earned / bought / stored in the account ◍ distribution among levels ▨ virtual goods ◍ in-game purchases / purchases for real money ▨ time
  • 20. THE STRUCTURE OF CONSUMER BASKET ▨ Measure it: ◍ in general ◍ by levels ◍ by segments of users ▨ Search for unusual behavior, peaks and declines ▨ Correlate with price and availability ▨ Substitutes and complements ▨ Demand stability ▨ Basket dynamics
  • 24. RULE 9. SEGMENT YOUR PLAYERS ▨ Paying / non-paying ▨ One payment / repeated payments ▨ Activated / unactivated ▨ New users / old users ▨ Frequent visitors / rare visitors ▨ Completed tutorial / skipped tutorial ▨ Source 1 / source 2 ▨ Entered the shop / didn’t enter the shop ▨ Combinations of different parameters
  • 25. RULE 10. MONITOR INDICATORS ▨ How to save money? Start recording all expenses. ▨ How to lose weight? Start recording everything you eat. ▨ How to maximize a project’s revenue?
  • 26. RULE 11. REVENUE IS NOT THE MAIN KPI FOR YOU It’s better to focus not on revenue. Game analyst should replace revenue chart with the set of curves: ▨ Retention curve; ▨ LTV curve; ▨ Economy balance curves; ▨ Complexity curve etc.
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  • 30. TO SUM UP ▨ yes, we need to maximize the revenue; ▨ no, we don’t need to look at the revenue every day; ▨ biggest mistake is to focus on quantity, not on quality; ▨ it’s better to increase quality metrics first; ▨ dig deeper to find bottlenecks and points of growth; ▨ analytics has huge set of tools to increase quality of your game.
  • 32. In today’s highly competitive F2P market creating a good game is only a part of success. There are so many problems that developers have to solve during the app lifecycle. www.devtodev.com There are so many problems that game developers have to solve
  • 33. THANK YOU! Vasiliy Sabirov lead analyst & co-founder www.devtodev.com sabirov@devtodev.com www.devtodev.com