This document discusses the use of arbitrary numbers and projections in business. It notes that companies often assume revenues and profits will increase indefinitely based on past trends, without considering complex systems. Examples are given of arbitrary deadlines agreed upon without understanding implications. The document sarcastically suggests people should be given Nobels for projecting unrealistic growth rates. It argues businesses should avoid arbitrary numbers and targets, instead setting directions and priorities qualitatively.

1. *
“Running an Agile Fortune 500 Company”
Aditya Yadav, aditya.yadav@gmail.com
in.linkedin.com/in/adityayadav76

2. * A Typical Global Company
* Fortune 500/1000
* 200 Divisions
* 40 Countries
* 25000 Employees
*

3. *
@ Acme Inc.

4. * Original Question “We have done $3billion in
sales in year 0 and we have done +7% in year 1
next year we will do +14% in sales.”
* The Correct Question - “Sir, I beg your pardon
but I’m having a Dilbert Moment
here, shouldn’t the guy who came up with
+14% be given the Nobel Prize this year? [Allow
me to explain why]!!!”
*

5. *
And The Philosophy Behind The Answer

6. *

7. * The first assumption in Business is we increase revenues and
profits every year.
* Obviously our Business will be a success for the next 20,000
years and our profits will reach Infinity looking at our current
trends
* And we can achieve this by doing exactly what we have been
doing
* We don’t understand complex systems, or non-linear dynamic
systems, quasi stable states
* And we laugh at startup founders for their unbelievable
projections but we are at the top of the Business World and
we do the same thing but Ofcourse we are Always Right!!!
* Let us take some examples of Arbitrary Numbers in Business
*

8. * Customer – “Can you deliver this by Dec this year?”
* Vendor – “Ofcourse!”
* I’m not going to argue about Agile or Techno-Functional Sales Teams or any of that.
* The Golden Rule – Unless a deadline is to meet the Summer or Christmas Sales Season
or The Regulatory Compliance Cutoff Date everything else is arbitrary and bogus and
arbitrary
* Two parties get together and discuss their Fantasies and arrive at a deadline or a
number and make it binding. Welcome to the Disney World!!!
* The Reason Given – “That’s the way we do it and have been doing it and we have made
a $500m business doing this”
* What does that mean?
* Egyptians built Pyramids using 100,000 Slaves
* The Middle East made a Developed Subcontinent using Petro-Dollars
* And we love the way you Justify Your Arbitrary Numbers!!!!
*

9. * Lets see how this is done?
* Someone with great Excel skills puts the last 3 years revenue
on an excel chart. Fits a Curve through it.
* Yay! We will be making $38billion next year!!! And $49b the
year after and $63 the year after that.
* We have sorted everything out
* Or the other Inside Story behind Arbitrary Number
Generation is
* “Actually I was walking from my Car in the Parking to the
Elevator and then it struck me we will do $38billion next
year which is +$8billion from this year. Now lets have the
rest of the organization execute on my Vision (@#%$$^%^$%)”
*

10. * We just acquired a company for $300million
* As a CIO you need to Synergize Down $60m in 3
years
*…
* The CIO’s Reply – “Why $60m? Give me a $2m
bonus and I will make it $80m or what the hell
for $5m I will give you a $100m cost savings”
* o O!!! Everyone else is so getting Sc%$#^d!!!
*

11. * I agree I have been extremely Sarcastic and my apologies are due!
* But I honestly need to learn and study for another 30 years of my life
to be able to Grasp The Genius Behind Arbitrary Numbers in Business
* Instead of a Thesis Paper let me just jot down the conclusion
* Rule: Stay away from arbitrary numbers
* Rule: Stay away from numbers/targets
* Rule: Set a Direction, do the Right Things For the Right Reasons!
* The only place where Arbitrary Numbers (Maybe not that arbitrary)
should be used is in Turnaround Situations. Where you make a world
wide coordinated attack for survival which depends on hitting a
particular number.
*

12. Aditya!!!
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