The TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index plunged 48% in March to an all-time low of 49. This represents a sharp decline from 94 in February and 105 in January. The three-month simple moving average also fell significantly to 49 in March, down from 75 in February. Demand declined across most demographic groups and regions, signaling weakening consumer intent to purchase new vehicles in the near term.

1. TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index
March 2012
70 Hilltop Road, Ramsey, NJ 07446
Pho:201-986-1288 | Fax:201-986-0119
www.technometrica.com

2. About Us
 TechnoMetrica, founded in 1992, is a full-service Market Research consultancy that helps
businesses identify, develop and capitalize on growth opportunities. Spotting trends and
synthesizing insights that are well-defined, accurate, and forward-thinking is our passion.
Research is the foundation for all our endeavors.
 TechnoMetrica is a thinkery. We harness the power of creative thinking in everything we
do: to develop study designs that best answer research objectives; to communicate
research findings with impact; to develop effective marketing strategies and new product
development. Our creations are the true testimonies that reflect our depth of thinking.
Our clients are our ambassadors of our reputation.
 In 1996, TechnoMetrica founded TIPP – the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics.
Shortly thereafter, TIPP joined forces with Investor’s Business Daily (1996 to present) –
the nation’s fastest-growing financial publication – and with the Pulitzer Prize-winning
Christian Science Monitor (1998 to present).
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 2

3. Table Of Contents
I. Methodology 4-5
II. Auto Demand Index 6-15
A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)
B. By Region
C. By Area Type
D. By Age
E. By Gender/Marital Status
F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity
G. By Household Income
III. Demand For New Autos 16-22
A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall
B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time
C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame
D. Vehicle Types Momentum
E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3SMA
IV. Brand Preferences 23-29
A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today 3 SMA
B. Brand Preferences Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)
V. Contact Information 30
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 3

4. I. Methodology

5. Methodology
 TechnoMetrica’s Auto Demand Index is an early (monthly) indicator of consumers’ intent
to purchase or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months. The index has been set to
an initial value of 100 based on demand levels between February 2007 and April 2007.
 The Auto Demand Index is based on the responses Americans give to the question:
– How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months? Would you say
very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?
 We express purchase intent as an index score that varies as a linear function of the
percentage of consumers who are either “very” or “somewhat” likely to purchase or
lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months.
 Higher index readings correspond to greater demand or intent to purchase/lease new
automobiles.
 The index and its movement is projectable to the national market for new automobiles,
which consists of over 100 million U.S. households with drivers.
 Each month, TechnoMetrica uses a monthly Random Digit Dial (RDD) telephone survey to
collect the survey data, with a sample size of 900+ respondents.
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 5

6. II. Auto Demand Index, Purchase Outlook
A. Auto Demand Index (Overall)
B. By Region
C. By Area Type
D. By Age
E. By Gender and Marital Status
F. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity
G. By Household Income

7. Auto Demand Index (Overall)
The TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index nosedived by 49 Base = All Respondents
points, or 48%, in March posting its all time low 49 vs. 94 in High Low
February and 105 in January. 2007 129 79
2008 92 66
2009 95 55
2010 97 56
Auto Demand Index 3SMA
2011 94 49
3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average
120 2012 105 49
100
80
60
40
20
0
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
May-10
May-11
Dec-10
Dec-11
Oct-10
Oct-11
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Aug-10
Jul-11
Aug-11
Apr-10
Apr-11
Feb-11
Feb-12
Sep-10
Sep-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Nov-11
In March, the TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index decreased significantly, going from 94 in February to 49 this month.
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 7

8. Auto Demand Index Moving Averages
Base = All Respondents
95 3SMA= Three Months Simple Moving Average
3SMA 6SMA 12SMA
6SMA = Six Months Simple Moving Average
90
12SMA = Twelve Months Simple Moving Average
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
May-10
May-11
Dec-10
Dec-11
Oct-11
Oct-10
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Jan-12
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Aug-10
Aug-11
Apr-10
Apr-11
Feb-11
Feb-12
Sep-10
Sep-11
Jun-10
Nov-10
Jun-11
Nov-11
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 8

9. MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence
3 Month SMA (Fast Average) Vs 12 Month SMA (Slow Average) Base = All Respondents
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
-12
-16
-20
The momentum turned positive in November 2011 and since then increased steadily reaching an all-time high in
February 2012, but fell in March.
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 9

10. By Region 3 SMA
Northeast Midwest Base = All Respondents
150 150
12 SMA = 76 12 SMA = 66
125 125
100 83 100 87
78 77
75 80 72 68
75 67 91 75
84 56 44 50
50 50
25 25
0
0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
South West
150 150 12 SMA = 64
125 111 100 125
102
100 79 100 78
75 66 68
66 68 65 60
75 68 75 52
50 50
25 25
12 SMA = 75
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 10

11. By Area Type 3 SMA
Base = All Respondents
Urban Suburban
150 12 SMA = 75 150 12 SMA = 76
125 125 105
83 88 86 89 91
100 100 85
71 72 77 71 78
75 69
75 63
50 50
25 25
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Rural
150 12 SMA = 62
125
100 81 86
77
75 58 60
53
44
50
25
0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 11

12. By Age 3 SMA
Base = All Respondents
18-24
200 12 SMA = 114 25-44
200 12 SMA = 88
175 145 175
150 134 129 131
120 150 119
125 110 110
90 125 95
100 68 100 71 78
75 75 63
50 50
25 25
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
45-64 65+
200 200 12 SMA = 36
12 SMA = 60
175 175
150 150
125 125
100 72 100
56 65 69 70 67
75 50 75
36 32 31 37 41 37
50 50 35
25 25
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 12

13. By Gender and Marital Status 3 SMA
Base = All Respondents
Male Female
150 12 SMA = 80 150
12 SMA = 62
125 109 125
97 97
100 75 82 100
72 78 72 77 70
75 75 58 62 62
52
50 50
25 25
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Married Single
150 12 SMA = 75 150
12 SMA = 66
125 106 125
95 91
100 82 100 78 74
65 74 70 72
75 57 75 60 63 56
50 50
25 25
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 13

14. By Parental Status and Race/Ethnicity 3 SMA
Base = All Respondents
Parents Non-Parents
150 150
116 12 SMA = 61
125 109 125
101
87 91 95 88
100 100 78 83
72
64
75 75 54 48 57
50 50
25 12 SMA = 91
25
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Black/Hispanic 140 White
150 134 150
12 SMA = 64
125 111 125
94
100 76 100 75
76 71
59 62 63 69
75 75 56 58
50 50
25 12 SMA = 84
25
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 14

15. By Household Income 3 SMA
Base = All Respondents
Under 30K 30K-50K
150 150
12 SMA = 63
125 104 125
93
100 82 100 76 77
73 74
75 56 63 75 61
51 53
43 42
50 50
25 25
12 SMA = 66
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
50K-100K 100K+
150 150
12 SMA = 70 119
125 125 107 110
102
88 95
100 77 79 100
70 73 67 70
75 58 61 75
50 50
25 25 12 SMA = 89
0 0
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Q. How likely is it that you will buy or lease a new vehicle within the next 6 months?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 15

16. III. Demand For New Autos
A. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Plans: Overall
B. Vehicle Purchase Plans: Purchase Likelihood Over Time
C. New Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame
D. Vehicle Types Momentum
E. Preferred Vehicle Types 3 SMA

17. Vehicle Purchase Plans
March 2012 Base = All Respondents
Likely
8%
In March, the share of Americans who
Not Likely said they were likely to purchase or
92% lease a new vehicle in the next six
months was 8%.
25%
Vehicle Purchase Plans Over Time
20% Likely 3 month SMA
15%
10%
5%
0%
May-11
May-10
Mar-11
Mar-10
Mar-12
Dec-10
Dec-11
Oct-10
Oct-11
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jul-10
Aug-10
Jul-11
Aug-11
Apr-10
Apr-11
Feb-11
Feb-12
Sep-10
Sep-11
Nov-10
Nov-11
Jun-10
Jun-11
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 17

18. Vehicle Purchase/Lease Time Frame
March 2012 Base = Potential Customers
100%
Not Sure Within 1
90% 1% Month
80% 9%
Between 4
70% & 6 Months
60%
61%
50%
40%
Between 2
30% & 3 Months
29%
20%
This month, 9% of likely vehicle buyers say they
10% will purchase or lease a new vehicle within one
month, while 29% say they will do so within 2
0% to 3 months, while most (61%) are planning to
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 do so further out (within 4 to 6 months).
Within 1 Month Between 2 and 3 Months
Between 4 and 6 Months Not sure
In March, the percentage of likely vehicle buyers within one month
decreased to 9%.
Q. Will you make your purchase within the next 3 months, or in 4 to 6 months?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 18

19. Vehicle Type Momentum
March 2012 Base = Potential Customers
12 Month Average 6 Month Average
Negative Change No Change Positive Change
31%
29%
13% 13% 14%
12% 11% 10% 11%
7% 8% 8% 8%
6% 6% 6%
Mid-size Small SUV Minivan Large SUV Sub-compact or Full-size Pickup Compact
Mini
Q. What type of vehicle are you most likely to buy or lease?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 19

20. Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time - 3 SMA
Base = Potential Customers
Subcompact/Mini Compact
40% 40%
30% 30%
19%
20% 14%
20% 14%
12% 10% 9% 11%
8% 8%
8% 7% 10%
10% 4% 4%
2%
0%
0% S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Mid-Sized Full-Sized
40% 34% 40%
33% 32% 31% 29%
35% 25%
30% 30%
20% 20% 14% 15%
13%
7% 9% 9%
10% 10% 6%
0% 0%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 20

21. Preferred Vehicle Types Over Time 3 SMA
Pickup Truck Base = Potential Customers
Minivan
30% 30%
20% 20%
12% 12%
10% 9% 9% 9% 11% 9% 10% 11%
9% 9%
10% 10%
4% 4%
0% 0%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Small SUV Large SUV
30% 30%
20% 20%
14%
11% 12%
11% 9% 9% 9% 8%
8% 8% 7% 8%
10% 10% 6% 6%
0% 0%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 21

22. IV. Brand Preferences
A. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy
B. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top Ten Brands)

23. Top Ten Brands Consumers Would Buy Today
March 2012 Base = Potential Customers
12 Month Average 6 Month Average
19%
18%
14%
12%
11%
10% 10%
8%
5% 5%
4% 4%
3% 3%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Ford Chevrolet Toyota Honda GMC Nissan Chrysler Hyundai Dodge Subaru
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 23

24. By Vehicle Origin
March 2012 Base = All Respondents
100%
90% Likely to Purchase by Make
80%
6 Month Average 12 Month Average
70%
60%
50%
40% 42% 43%
30% 31% 31%
20%
10% 6% 5%
0%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 American Asian European
European Asian American
Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 24

25. Luxury vs. Non-Luxury
March 2012 Base = All Respondents
6 Month Average
100%
Not
90% Sure
11%
Non-
80%
Luxury
70% 79%
60% Luxury
10%
50%
40%
30%
12 Month Average
20% Not
Sure
10%
Non- 11%
0% Luxury
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 78%
Luxury Non-Luxury
Luxury
11%
Q. If you were to buy a vehicle today, what brand would you buy?
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 25

26. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Top 4 Brands)
Base = Potential Customers
Ford Toyota
30% 30%
21%
18% 18% 19%
17%
20% 15% 20%
13%
10% 10% 11% 12%
9% 9% 8%
10% 10%
0% 0%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Chevrolet Honda
30% 30%
20% 14% 16% 20%
15%
11% 14% 13% 12%
10% 10% 9%
10% 10% 8% 7% 6%
6%
0% 0%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 26

27. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 5-8)
Base = Potential Customers
GMC Dodge
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 4% 6% 6% 7% 10% 5%
3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2%
0% 0%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
Nissan Chrysler
30% 30%
20% 20%
9%
10% 6% 10%
4% 3% 4%
2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%
1%
0% 0%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 27

28. Brand Preference Over Time 3 SMA (Brands 9-10)
Base = Potential Customers
Hyundai Subaru
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 3% 10%
2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0% 0%
S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12 S-11 O-11 N-11 D-11 J-12 F-12 M-12
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 28

29. Conclusions
 The Auto Demand Index tumbles as a casualty to high gasoline prices. TechnoMetrica’s
research has shown high gasoline prices is the biggest wildcard car manufacturers face
today.
 Only 8% of Americans are considering buying a new car within the next six months, down
from 16% in February.
 Persisting high gasoline prices could drive down demand and add to the financial troubles
of the already vulnerable auto industry. Further, a sharp slump has immense potential
to affect the economy and employment significantly.
 Auto manufacturers and their dealers must proactively prepare for a slowdown. Auto
factories take a long time to alter production rates and no manufacturer wants to have
too many cars in inventory. The same holds true for car dealers, who must finance the
unsold cars in their inventory.
 A rational energy policy, which acknowledges the realities of our resources, our
preferences as consumers, and the realities of our environment, may be the best way to
make America’s gas pains disappear.
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 29

30. Contact Information
To request a full data set or for any questions, please contact us.
Contact: Raghavan Mayur
Address: 70 Hilltop Road, Suite 1001
Ramsey, NJ 07446
Phone: 800-328-TECH (8324)
201-986-1288
Fax: 201-986-0119
Email: mayur@technometrica.com
Web: www.technometrica.com
TechnoMetrica Auto Demand Index – March 2012 30