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Stress-Testing: A Practical Approach to the Analysis of Systemic Stability    Washington  DC,  July 2010 IMF ( Risk Dynamics into the Future ) José Manuel Aguirre Director - AIS Group Systemic Risk RDF
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
AIS a Global Company Headquarters in Barcelona  (inc.1987) Branches around the world International Alliances: Oracle, Microsoft, ESRI, IBM, PWC, Accenture, Deloitte, EVERIS, AFI, INTEL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],90 employees in five countries  Mexico since 1993 Argentina since 1994 Portugal since 1995 Chile   since 2002
AIS segments and products / services   Risk Management Granting and monitoring models  Collection software tool Portfolio Models   RDF  - Economic Capital - RAROC  Support platforms SCACS Consultancy Management tools  SIC-GMR Marketing Modeling in marketing database Geodemographic Marketing: Provision of external information Customer value Other services Valuation of real Estate assets   Economic and Social impact assessment of financial institutions Cardboard manufacturers plants planning
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is RDF? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What is RDF? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The main objectives of the RDF method ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The main objectives of the RDF method RDF accomplishes these objectives combining statistical, mathematical and econometric tools with accounting information  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
RDF solutions Real Estate Value Credit Risk management Sales   Planning Mgment. of Real Estate values Credit Risk Sales and business planning Applications based on  Risk Dynamics into the Future B/S / P&L projection  Projection of statements under stressed situations RDF  is the solution for the management of values in unstable situations
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Applications – Credit Risk Bancaja (Spain) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Applications – Credit Risk – Bancaja (Spain) Portfolio Optimization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Applications – Credit Risk Financiera Rural (Mexico) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Budgeted Portfolio or Current Portfolio or Hypothetical Portfolio Proposal ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Feedback Macro-economy Segment economies Financial System Dynamics (Integr.) RDF Scenario Generator Risk Appetite Other Constraints Objectives and applications of RDF Calculation of regulatory or economic capital ALM risk Liquidity, interest Gaps Other Treasury
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Objectives and applications of RDF Change in Real Estate values
Objectives and applications of RDF  Change in Real Estate values ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Objectives and applications of RDF Sales Planning Demand adjusted to the economic scenario Constant demand Demand adjusted to a given macroeconomic model The VARMA  model allows to estimate future demand conditioned to the economic situation The traditional model considers a constant demand for each class of client
Objectives and applications of RDF Sales Planning Potential Market for a product Propensity  of demand Distribution  of  demographics The analysis of the potential market in each zone considers the number of families of each socio type and the demand propensity for any product of the entity.  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Market niches Own offices and competitors in a given city  Scenarios simulation Map of income by  zone
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
AIS  Intelligent Decisions c/ Castillejos, 365, 2ª Planta 08025  Barcelona - Spain  Tel: +34 93 414 35 34 Fax: +34 93 414 10 28  www.ais-int.com   Thank you! José Manuel Aguirre [email_address]

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Stress Testing A Practical Approach To The Analysis Of Systemic Stability Part1

  • 1. Stress-Testing: A Practical Approach to the Analysis of Systemic Stability Washington DC, July 2010 IMF ( Risk Dynamics into the Future ) José Manuel Aguirre Director - AIS Group Systemic Risk RDF
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. AIS segments and products / services Risk Management Granting and monitoring models Collection software tool Portfolio Models   RDF - Economic Capital - RAROC Support platforms SCACS Consultancy Management tools SIC-GMR Marketing Modeling in marketing database Geodemographic Marketing: Provision of external information Customer value Other services Valuation of real Estate assets Economic and Social impact assessment of financial institutions Cardboard manufacturers plants planning
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. RDF solutions Real Estate Value Credit Risk management Sales Planning Mgment. of Real Estate values Credit Risk Sales and business planning Applications based on Risk Dynamics into the Future B/S / P&L projection Projection of statements under stressed situations RDF is the solution for the management of values in unstable situations
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Objectives and applications of RDF Sales Planning Demand adjusted to the economic scenario Constant demand Demand adjusted to a given macroeconomic model The VARMA model allows to estimate future demand conditioned to the economic situation The traditional model considers a constant demand for each class of client
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. AIS Intelligent Decisions c/ Castillejos, 365, 2ª Planta 08025 Barcelona - Spain Tel: +34 93 414 35 34 Fax: +34 93 414 10 28 www.ais-int.com Thank you! José Manuel Aguirre [email_address]

Editor's Notes

  1. RDF (Risk Dynamics into the Future) is an AIS methodological proposal for the analysis of the impact on the credit investments portfolio of a financial entity in extreme yet plausible situations, generally resulting from an economic crisis. RDF is a method composed of mathematical, statistical and econometric formulae that helps analysts and managers in the Stress testing exercices. The RDF method will be published and their use will be free, following GNU License.
  2. The main targets given to RDF, were the following ones: To identify the worst-case scenarios in the economy using language familiar to management . (Not mathematical or econometrical language) To analyze the impact on a specific credit portfolio, a bank or an aggregate in the financial sector. To quantify this impact using the more advanced Risk measures : Expected and unexpected losses, VaR, Shortfall, … To integrate sets of different Risk Units taking into account realistic correlations . To speed up as much as possible the response of simulations. To take advantage of sophisticated procedures , keeping it simple for the user. Encapsulating models macro and micro, Fourier analysis or saddle-point integrals in such a way that the user can ignore them.
  3. AIS , Aplicaciones de Inteligencia Artificial, S.A. es una consultora multinacional española especializada en aportar soluciones a temas de gestión empresarial complejos. Convertimos datos en información e información en herramientas de apoyo a la toma de decisiones Nuestros consultores aportan conocimientos profundos de modelos cuantitativos para la gestión diaria de diferentes sectores de actividad Nuestra experiencia se traduce en más de veinte años tratando temas de gestión en el sector financiero, asegurador, energético, logístico e industrial aplicando modelos econométricos, estadísticos, así como otras técnicas de vanguardia