This document analyzes stock market trends in the S&P 500 index over various periods from 1950 to 2016. It finds that the percentage of up days and down days remains relatively balanced, averaging close to 50% for each across decades, individual years, and longer secular bull and bear markets. Specifically, it notes that all decades from the 1960s to 2010s had between 51-54% up days and 46-49% down days on average.

1. 50+ YEARS
1950–2016
Up Days % 53.6%
Down Days % 46.4%
DECADES
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Up Days % 54.2% 51.3% 53.0% 53.7% 52.3% 54.2%
Down Days % 45.8% 48.7% 47.0% 46.3% 47.7% 45.8%
SECULAR BEAR BULL
1966–1982 1983–1999
Up Days % 51.1% 54.0%
Down Days % 48.9% 46.0%
RECENT
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Up Days % 54.8% 52.8% 58.3% 57.1% 47.2% 52.0%
Down Days % 45.2% 47.2% 41.7% 42.9% 52.8% 48.0%
PERCENTAGE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE DAYS ACROSS VARIOUS PERIODS: S&P 500 INDEX
(The Stock Market Tends To Have Relatively Near 50% Up Days & Down Days Across Various Periods)
Copyright 2004-2017, Crestmont Research (www.CrestmontResearch.com)
54.2%
51.3%
53.0%
53.7%
52.3%
54.2%
45.8%
48.7%
47.0%
46.3%
47.7%
45.8%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
DECADES: 1950s - 2000s
Up Days % Down Days %
54.8%
52.8%
58.3%
57.1%
47.2%
52.0%
45.2%
47.2%
41.7%
42.9%
52.8%
48.0%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RECENT YEARS: 2011 - 2016
Up Days % Down Days %
53.6%
51.1%
54.0%
46.4%
48.9%
46.0%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
1950–2016 BEAR:
1966–1982
BULL:
1983–1999
50+ YEARS: 1950-2016 AND
RECENT SECULAR BEAR & SECULAR BULL
Up Days % Down Days %