“The science of human nature is of this description. It falls far short of the standard of exactness now realized in Astronomy; or as Astronomy was when its calculations had only mastered the main phenomena, but not the perturbations “The phenomena with which this science is conversant being the thoughts, feelings, and actions of human beings, it would have attained the ideal”

1. MARTIN PRASETYA
190700011
SISTEM INFORMASI
“Statistics as Applied to Human Action”
by John Venn

2. The Application of Logic
to Human Conduct
It is now time to enter into a short enquiry as to how
far it is right thus to put these various human actions,
especially those of the more exclusively voluntary
description,

3. Critique of Mill’s Science of
Human Nature
“The science of human nature is of this description.
It falls far short of the standard of exactness now
realized in Astronomy; or as Astronomy was when its
calculations had only mastered the main
phenomena, but not the perturbations
“The phenomena with which this science is
conversant being the thoughts, feelings, and actions
of human beings, it would have attained the ideal”

4. The publication of the Nautical Almanack is not
supposed to have the slightest effect upon the path of
the planets, whereas the publication of any prediction
about the conduct of human beings (unless it were
kept out of their sight, or expressed in unintelligible
language) almost certainly would have some effect.

5. Exact Prediction Is Compatible
with Free Will
Human nature can not be compatible free will.
Free will is more to responsible and obligation,
to the action to human nature
Assuming that the abstract possibility of
foreseeing human conduct, it must be
maintained that a difficulty of an entirely
distinct character.

6. An Independent Observer
Can Be Practically Impossible
The remarks in the last few sections are
intended to point out that that purely
speculative and isolated position of the
observer.

7. evidence we possess respecting it points to one great
conclusion, and can leave no doubt on our minds that suicide is
merely the product of the general condition of society, and
that the individual felon only carries into effect what is a
necessary consequence of preceding circumstances. In a given
state of society a certain number of persons must put an end
to their own life.4 This is the general law, and the special
question as to who shall commit the crime depends of course
upon special laws; which however, in their total action, must
obey the large social law to which they are all subordinate.
And the power of the larger law is so irresistible, that neither
the love of life nor the fear of another world can avail anything
towards even checking its operation.”
General Laws Are Not Deterministic

8. The Fatalistic Fallacy
But it will not take much trouble to show that there
is a serious fallacy involved in most cases in the
expression of such sentiments as those quoted. I am
anxious that it should be clearly understood that
this fallacy finds no countenance in either of the
two assumptions which are necessary for the
establishment respectively of the rules of
Probability and Induction, in those, namely, of
statistical uniformity, and invariability of
antecedence and sequence.

9. THANK YOU