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State of the Market
State of Africa Mining
Presenter: Chris Hinde / Glen Jones

Research: Jeremy Thompson
marketing@intierraRMG.com

Mining On Top: Africa – London , 25 June 2013
About IntierraRMG

Leadership: Over 30 years of providing mining information
(through two databases, consultancy, maps, conferences/
seminars and published reports)

Information: Lease locations and ownership, company
intelligence, drilling data, project pipeline, due diligence
reports, production statistics, finance and M&A activity
Reports: Quarterly examination on trends in exploration,
mine development and metals production, analysis of the
market and financing, and expert comment on the industry
Disclaimer:
IntierraRMG makes reasonable and diligent efforts to obtain accurate information for our clients and presentations. No warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy, adequacy,
completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information contained herein. Neither IntierraRMG nor the contributors of data to this presentation shall be held liable for any improper or incorrect use of
the information contained herein and assume no responsibility for the use of the information.
Outline

• Global
Overview
• Africa
Exploration
Development
Production
State of the Market: Mining

By the end of the March quarter, the mining industry
had found itself between a rock and a hard place:
Rock: Falling metals prices, with little prospect of an
early recovery because of lacklustre demand.
Hard Place: Pressure on operating costs and a
heightened threat of resource nationalism.
Problems compounded by the restricted supply of
finance, especially for mineral exploration.
Disclaimer:
IntierraRMG makes reasonable and diligent efforts to obtain accurate information for our clients and presentations. No warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy, adequacy,
completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information contained herein. Neither IntierraRMG nor the contributors of data to this presentation shall be held liable for any improper or incorrect use of
the information contained herein and assume no responsibility for the use of the information.
Base Metals Gloom (but Gold OK)
All-Time High For Gold

1000

Gold floods into Europe
from Spanish conquests
in 16th century, causing
inflation spiral

900
800

REAL (£/oz)

Gold at record real-price
of over £1,000/oz

1489: Royal Mint issues
Sovereign (£1 = 0.5oz)

700
600
500

1717: Isaac Newton
fixes £1 at 0.235oz

400
300
200
100
0

USA discovered (1492)
|----100 years---|
Prices Stall for Coal, Iron and Copper
Shape of an Industry
Mid-2012 Prices

MINED
(‘000t)

PRICE
(US$/t)

VALUE PA
(US$ bn)

Coal
Iron Ore
Gold

7,700,000
1,980,000
2.57

90
120
51,440,000

693
238
132

Copper
Bauxite
Nickel
Zinc
PGMs
Diamonds
Lead
Top Ten Total

16,300
7,500
203,000
350
1,400
16,400
12,000
1,900
0.38
38,560,000
0.032 350,000,000
4,000
1,900
9,916,700
(134)

122
71
23
23
15
11
8
1,336
Drilling Trends

17 month decline
Drilling Reports

Drill Announcements

Mar Q 2013

Dec Q 2012

Mar Q 2012

Gold Prospects

651

702

1,119

Copper Prospects

192

238

315

Silver Prospects

154

174

274

63

72

104

Zinc Prospects
Reported Ore Reserves (contained metal)

Metal Deposits

Mar Q 2013

Dec Q 2012

Mar Q 2012

Gold (‘000oz)

23,752

15,665

50,059

Copper (‘000t)

1,110

5,239

8,537

Silver (Moz)

574

469

309

Zinc (‘000t)

2,264

872

1,901
Copper/Gold Open-Pit Developments
Copper and gold deposits that have received a capital expenditure
forecast (during the past two years) for an open-pit development
Metals M&A Activity

Metals Deals: US$11.9
billion in March quarter
(US$14 billion in Dec Q)
An Industry Devalued
20 month
decline
6 month
recovery
Copper Discovery Rates
Average
Feasibility
Study Grade
Gold Discovery Rates
Average
Feasibility
Study Grade
Funds Raised (US$m)

Company Size
(US$m)

Q1 2013

Q4 2012

Q1 2012

<10 Market Cap

246

179

593

10 – 49

537

954

1,181

50 – 100

301

498

1,182

>100

4,075

5,137

2,914

Total

5,159

6,768

5,870 Falling total, and

Explorers

1,451

3,405

3,418 smaller share

Producers

3,710

3,364

2,454

End-2012 corporate cash holdings of US$300 billion
(under US$15 billion of this held by explorers)
Regional Spending
Operating Costs Held at Base Metals Mines

Up only
12% on
2008
But Costs Soar at Gold Mines

Up 62%
on 2008
Africa Focus
African Exploration

•
•
•
•
•
•

Prospecting
Sampling
Exploration drilling
Resource definition drilling
Surveying
Preliminary metallurgical
Exploration Capital Raisings
2 Year Total US$ 829M

Southern Africa,
$148,641,000

West Africa,
$341,438,000

18%

41%
Other Africa,
$338,736,000
41%
Exploration Capital Raisings
2 Year Total US$ 829M

56.4%
7.9%
7.9%
6.3%
5.1%
Drilling Activity - Africa
Conclusions

• Exploration activity significantly decreased
• New or expanded resources at risk
• Africa has significant future in resource
development
• Must overcome many of the issues discussed
in the next two days
Thank You
Inquire about subscription to:
• State of the Market – Africa
• State of the Market – Mining and Finance
• State of the Market - Exploration
• IntierraRMG data base
Sponsorship of:
• Africa series of maps
• Africa Mines and Deposit map
marketing@intierraRMG.com

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The state of African mining - Chris Hinde, Editorial, Director, IntierraRMG

  • 1. State of the Market State of Africa Mining Presenter: Chris Hinde / Glen Jones Research: Jeremy Thompson marketing@intierraRMG.com Mining On Top: Africa – London , 25 June 2013
  • 2. About IntierraRMG Leadership: Over 30 years of providing mining information (through two databases, consultancy, maps, conferences/ seminars and published reports) Information: Lease locations and ownership, company intelligence, drilling data, project pipeline, due diligence reports, production statistics, finance and M&A activity Reports: Quarterly examination on trends in exploration, mine development and metals production, analysis of the market and financing, and expert comment on the industry Disclaimer: IntierraRMG makes reasonable and diligent efforts to obtain accurate information for our clients and presentations. No warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information contained herein. Neither IntierraRMG nor the contributors of data to this presentation shall be held liable for any improper or incorrect use of the information contained herein and assume no responsibility for the use of the information.
  • 4. State of the Market: Mining By the end of the March quarter, the mining industry had found itself between a rock and a hard place: Rock: Falling metals prices, with little prospect of an early recovery because of lacklustre demand. Hard Place: Pressure on operating costs and a heightened threat of resource nationalism. Problems compounded by the restricted supply of finance, especially for mineral exploration. Disclaimer: IntierraRMG makes reasonable and diligent efforts to obtain accurate information for our clients and presentations. No warranty, expressed or implied is made regarding the accuracy, adequacy, completeness, reliability, or usefulness of any information contained herein. Neither IntierraRMG nor the contributors of data to this presentation shall be held liable for any improper or incorrect use of the information contained herein and assume no responsibility for the use of the information.
  • 5. Base Metals Gloom (but Gold OK)
  • 6. All-Time High For Gold 1000 Gold floods into Europe from Spanish conquests in 16th century, causing inflation spiral 900 800 REAL (£/oz) Gold at record real-price of over £1,000/oz 1489: Royal Mint issues Sovereign (£1 = 0.5oz) 700 600 500 1717: Isaac Newton fixes £1 at 0.235oz 400 300 200 100 0 USA discovered (1492) |----100 years---|
  • 7. Prices Stall for Coal, Iron and Copper
  • 8. Shape of an Industry Mid-2012 Prices MINED (‘000t) PRICE (US$/t) VALUE PA (US$ bn) Coal Iron Ore Gold 7,700,000 1,980,000 2.57 90 120 51,440,000 693 238 132 Copper Bauxite Nickel Zinc PGMs Diamonds Lead Top Ten Total 16,300 7,500 203,000 350 1,400 16,400 12,000 1,900 0.38 38,560,000 0.032 350,000,000 4,000 1,900 9,916,700 (134) 122 71 23 23 15 11 8 1,336
  • 10. Drilling Reports Drill Announcements Mar Q 2013 Dec Q 2012 Mar Q 2012 Gold Prospects 651 702 1,119 Copper Prospects 192 238 315 Silver Prospects 154 174 274 63 72 104 Zinc Prospects
  • 11. Reported Ore Reserves (contained metal) Metal Deposits Mar Q 2013 Dec Q 2012 Mar Q 2012 Gold (‘000oz) 23,752 15,665 50,059 Copper (‘000t) 1,110 5,239 8,537 Silver (Moz) 574 469 309 Zinc (‘000t) 2,264 872 1,901
  • 12. Copper/Gold Open-Pit Developments Copper and gold deposits that have received a capital expenditure forecast (during the past two years) for an open-pit development
  • 13. Metals M&A Activity Metals Deals: US$11.9 billion in March quarter (US$14 billion in Dec Q)
  • 14. An Industry Devalued 20 month decline 6 month recovery
  • 17. Funds Raised (US$m) Company Size (US$m) Q1 2013 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 <10 Market Cap 246 179 593 10 – 49 537 954 1,181 50 – 100 301 498 1,182 >100 4,075 5,137 2,914 Total 5,159 6,768 5,870 Falling total, and Explorers 1,451 3,405 3,418 smaller share Producers 3,710 3,364 2,454 End-2012 corporate cash holdings of US$300 billion (under US$15 billion of this held by explorers)
  • 19. Operating Costs Held at Base Metals Mines Up only 12% on 2008
  • 20. But Costs Soar at Gold Mines Up 62% on 2008
  • 23. Exploration Capital Raisings 2 Year Total US$ 829M Southern Africa, $148,641,000 West Africa, $341,438,000 18% 41% Other Africa, $338,736,000 41%
  • 24. Exploration Capital Raisings 2 Year Total US$ 829M 56.4% 7.9% 7.9% 6.3% 5.1%
  • 26. Conclusions • Exploration activity significantly decreased • New or expanded resources at risk • Africa has significant future in resource development • Must overcome many of the issues discussed in the next two days
  • 27. Thank You Inquire about subscription to: • State of the Market – Africa • State of the Market – Mining and Finance • State of the Market - Exploration • IntierraRMG data base Sponsorship of: • Africa series of maps • Africa Mines and Deposit map marketing@intierraRMG.com