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支撐 壓力
與
合理股價
簡單 有效 判斷股價的走勢
ROCK 吳中石
AAROCK766@GMAIL.COM
支撐 壓力 的意義
支撐與壓力,是群眾心理學的表徵
支撐壓力通常發生在下列的狀況
◦ 前高:前高套牢資金,到達成本區賣出的壓力
◦ 前低:前低資金成本區,到達成本區,買方伺機反攻的支撐
◦ 前盤整:時間壓力所造成的買賣壓力
◦ 均線:月均線 季均線 半年線 年線
◦ 指標背離:指標不同意股價的走法,造成反轉或暫時反轉
◦ 支撐與壓力點,不代表股價一定會反轉,只代表反轉的力量較
大
支撐壓力 與 股價表現
以上是4938和碩股價周線圖
黑線橫條是前高與前低的橫移線
標示1: 到前高後,需盤整後,再往上
標示2: 下跌到前高與標示1後,止跌反彈
標示3: 下跌後,到前高、標示1、標示2點,止跌又反彈
合理股價的標準衡量
前高 前低的支撐壓力表
股價合理價
2013年配息 1.48元
股價衡量
3% 49.3
4% 37.0
5% 29.6
6% 24.7
7% 21.1
8% 18.5
9% 16.4
10% 14.8
11% 13.5
不傳之密,發現了嗎?
很有趣的狀況,利用 合理股價 與 支撐壓力,可以判斷股價會來到的價位
上圖3%的股價為49.3元,其實這個49.3元只是個可能價位。更精確地說,實際上可能會來到前波高
點55.4元,或再前一波高點48元。
合理股價判斷可能會到的區域,再由區域的支撐與壓力更精準判斷價格。
55.4 - 48,這個區間會不會太大? 先不需要考量這個問題,因為進場成本為37元。
周線 月線 日線 小時線都可以使用,而且須相互輔助,支撐與壓力環環相扣。
均線也是壓力支撐的有效判斷方式
模糊是操作的彈性,未來是股價基礎
精確的判斷,在金融市場是不可能的,也不需要花時間追尋不敗的聖杯
能夠忍受模糊才是操作的王道
利用歷史判斷未來股價,猶如以學校成績,判斷未來是否有前途
未來的預測,才是關鍵
譬如:今年配息1.5元,那明年是否配息會更高? 高到多少
如何判斷未來?
方法:籌碼、財報預測、技術指標的漲幅預測
不建議利用新聞媒體判斷
請自行找10檔股票
利用 合理股價計算方法
搭配 支撐壓力圖形
以看圖說故事的方式
找出買點與賣點
請將答案Mail :aarock766@gmail.com Rock
確定後,將提供下一階段課程

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支撐 壓力