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另外一種趣味思考

多頭、空頭指標
緣起:一切都是從賠太多開始……
  11年底想要找底部買進

    做了多頭指標

 進一步希望可以躲過空頭

   做了空頭指標

                本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
報告主要內容
定義多頭、空頭指標規則
多頭指標規則
多頭指標優、缺點

空頭指標規則

空頭指標優、缺點


多頭、空頭指標合用
多頭、空頭指標合用->買進規則
多頭、空頭指標合用->賣出規則


2000-2012年歷史經驗
2000-2012年多頭、空頭現象
指標出現機率?有統計意義?



                     本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
何謂多頭、空頭指標
  運用指標買進、賣出時機
多頭指標規則:
買進時機:
一、大盤指數>多頭指標 (持股30-50%)
二、第二次多頭指標>第一次多頭指標
                     (持股100%)

賣出時機:
大盤指數<買進時的多頭指標


(註:以上全部以最近一次發生點為主)
                       本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
多頭指標範例

                                第二次買進
                                (持股100%)
                                                   收盤價   多頭指標
7300
               第一次買進
7200           (持股30-50%)


7100
7000                   大盤指數<買進多頭指標
                       :所以失敗
6900
       1   2       3        4       5      6   7     8     9


                                                    本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
2008-2009年大盤走勢
               2009/03年可確定往上
 10,000         收盤價    多頭指標

  9,000

  8,000
          失敗
                失敗
  7,000                       確定成功
                 失敗
  6,000

  5,000               不斷錯誤區

  4,000

  3,000
         5

         6

         7

         8

         9

         0

         1

         2

         1

   09 2
         3

         4

         5

         6
      /0

      /0

      /0

      /0

      /0

      /1

      /1

      /1

      /0

      /0

      /0

      /0

      /0

      /0
   08

   08

   08

   08

   08

   08

   08

   08

   09

   09



   09

   09

   09
                              本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
多頭指標缺點:
                         只能判斷底部,不能判斷頭部
10,000

 9,000                              收盤價                  多頭指標

 8,000

 7,000
                            買進點
 6,000

 5,000
                                                                                                  到目前從來沒有跌破
 4,000                                                                                            4500點,都不賣股?
 3,000
         08/05
                 08/08
                         08/11
                                 09/02
                                         09/05
                                                 09/08
                                                         09/11
                                                                 10/02
                                                                         10/05
                                                                                 10/08
                                                                                         10/11
                                                                                                 11/02
                                                                                                         11/05
                                                                                                                 11/08
                                                                                                                         11/11
                                                                                                   本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
空頭指標規則:
買進時機:
大盤指數>空頭指標

賣出時機:
大盤指數<空頭指標



            本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
空頭指標範例

                                 收盤價       空頭指標
 7300
 7250
            買進時機
 7200
 7150
 7100
 7050
 7000                       賣出時機
 6950
 6900
        1   2   3   4   5    6     7   8    9


                                       本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
10,000




                           3,000
                                              4,000
                                                      5,000
                                                              6,000
                                                                      7,000
                                                                              8,000
                                                                                      9,000
                   08/05

                   08/07

                   08/09

                   08/11

                   09/01

                   09/03
                                                                                              收盤價



                   09/05

                   09/07

                   09/09

                   09/11
                                                                                              空頭指標




                   10/01
                                                                                                                       空頭指標優點:




                   10/03

                   10/05

                   10/07

                   10/09

                   10/11

                   11/01
                   11/03

                   11/05

                   11/07

                   11/09

                   11/11

                   12/01
                                                              買進




                   12/03

                   12/05
                                                                                                        能判斷底部,也能判斷頭部




                                   巴非特說:高點要恐懼,底點要貪婪
                                                                                        賣出




本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
10,000




                           3,000
                                   4,000
                                           5,000
                                                   6,000
                                                           7,000
                                                                   8,000
                                                                           9,000
                   08/05

                   08/07

                   08/09

                   08/11

                   09/01

                   09/03
                                                                                   收盤價



                   09/05

                   09/07

                   09/09

                   09/11
                                                                                   空頭指標




                   10/01
                                                                                                            空頭指標缺點:




                   10/03

                   10/05

                   10/07

                   10/09

                   10/11

                   11/01
                   11/03

                   11/05

                   11/07

                   11/09

                   11/11

                   12/01
                                               12月就出現




                   12/03

                   12/05
                                                                                             違反人性逆勢而為並不容易
                                                                               6月就出現訊號




                                               訊號問題是敢買進?
                                                                               問題是捨得賣出?




本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
多頭、空頭指標合用
可解決多頭、空頭指標各自問題
買進時機:多頭指標>空頭指標
                 合用也沒有違反多頭指標規則
多頭指標範例
7250       收盤價   空頭指標        多頭指標


7200


7150
                                            買進時機
7100
                             多頭指標
7050
                      空頭指標
7000


6950
       1     2    3      4      5       6




                                    本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
買進時機:多頭指標>空頭指標
                                                             合用也沒有違反多頭指標規則
10,000

                                 收盤價               多頭指標                  空頭指標
 9,000


 8,000


 7,000

                                                                            買進                                                   買進
                                                 買進
 6,000


 5,000
                                                                         優點:底部不會皮皮挫
 4,000
                                 買進                                         敢出手買進
 3,000
         08/05

                 08/08

                         08/11

                                 09/02

                                         09/05

                                                 09/08

                                                         09/11

                                                                 10/02

                                                                         10/05

                                                                                 10/08

                                                                                         10/11

                                                                                                 11/02

                                                                                                         11/05

                                                                                                                 11/08

                                                                                                                         11/11

                                                                                                                                 12/02

                                                                                                                                         12/05
                                                                                                                 本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
賣出時機:多頭指標>空頭指標
                 合用也沒有違反空頭指標規則
空頭指標範例
7250       收盤價    空頭指標        多頭指標


7200


7150                   多頭指標

7100                          空頭指標

7050
                 賣出時機
7000


6950
       1     2     3      4      5        6



                                     本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
賣出時機:多頭指標>空頭指標
                                                         合用也沒有違反空頭指標規則
10,000

                                 收盤價               多頭指標                  空頭指標
                                                                                                                  賣出
 9,000
                                                                                                                                    賣出
 8,000


 7,000
                                                                                    賣出
 6,000                                             賣出
 5,000


 4,000                                                               優點:高點捨得賣出
 3,000
         08/05

                 08/08

                         08/11

                                 09/02

                                         09/05

                                                 09/08

                                                         09/11

                                                                 10/02

                                                                         10/05

                                                                                 10/08

                                                                                         10/11

                                                                                                 11/02

                                                                                                         11/05

                                                                                                                 11/08

                                                                                                                         11/11

                                                                                                                                 12/02

                                                                                                                                         12/05
                                                                                                         本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
2000-2012年歷史經驗
多頭底部、空頭頭部現象
2000-2012年多頭底部現象:
11,000
                           收盤價           多頭指標            空頭指標
10,000


 9,000                                   底部現象

 8,000                                                                                                            7586


 7,000                                                                                                            7342


 6,000


 5,000


 4,000


 3,000
         00/01


                 01/01


                         02/01


                                 03/01


                                         04/01


                                                 05/01


                                                          06/01


                                                                  07/01


                                                                          08/01


                                                                                  09/01


                                                                                          10/01


                                                                                                  11/01


                                                                                                          12/01
                                                                                    本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
2000-2012年空頭頭部現象:
11,000
                           收盤價           多頭指標            空頭指標
10,000
                                     頭部現象
 9,000


 8,000                                                                                                            7586


 7,000
                                                                                                                  7342

 6,000


 5,000


 4,000


 3,000
         00/01


                 01/01


                         02/01


                                 03/01


                                         04/01


                                                 05/01


                                                          06/01


                                                                  07/01


                                                                          08/01


                                                                                  09/01


                                                                                          10/01


                                                                                                  11/01


                                                                                                          12/01
                                                                                    本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
多頭底部判斷較難,因為會失敗
11,000
                           收盤價            多頭指標            空頭指標
10,000
                                         多頭指標>逆勢指標,短暫
 9,000                                   反彈之後又繼續下跌

 8,000                                                                                                             7586


 7,000
                                                                                                                   7342

 6,000


 5,000


 4,000


 3,000
         00/01


                 01/01


                         02/01


                                 03/01


                                          04/01


                                                  05/01


                                                           06/01


                                                                   07/01


                                                                           08/01


                                                                                   09/01


                                                                                           10/01


                                                                                                   11/01


                                                                                                           12/01
                                                                                       本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
空頭指標出現,卻沒有多頭指標
11,000
              共有3次
                            收盤價           多頭指標            空頭指標
10,000

                         解法:當指數>空頭指標
 9,000
                         4-5%自動買進
 8,000                                                                                                             7586


 7,000
                                                                                                                   7342

 6,000


 5,000


 4,000


 3,000
         00/01


                 01/01


                          02/01


                                  03/01


                                          04/01


                                                  05/01


                                                           06/01


                                                                   07/01


                                                                           08/01


                                                                                   09/01


                                                                                           10/01


                                                                                                   11/01


                                                                                                           12/01
                                                                                       本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
指標出現多頻繁?有統計意義?
             總樣本   多頭指標   空頭指標
2000-2012年
共3110個樣本


                                 多頭指標出現194次
                                 機率6.24%




                     空頭指標出現79次
                     機率2.54%


                                 本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
指標不是萬能
一、不可能知道大盤漲跌幅
二、不可能買到最低點、賣到最高點
三、可能有操作過度問題
四、大資金能否短時間進出
五、參數設定不確定是不是最佳解
六、不確定證所稅是不是影響慣性
七、即便指標都對不代表獲利最大化

           本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
最大好處:輔助判斷
        避免多頭作空、空頭作多
11,000
                           收盤價           多頭指標            空頭指標
10,000


 9,000


 8,000


 7,000


 6,000
                                                                                          12年選舉+過年
 5,000


 4,000
                                                   09年無基之彈
 3,000
         00/01


                 01/01


                         02/01


                                 03/01


                                         04/01


                                                 05/01


                                                          06/01


                                                                  07/01


                                                                          08/01


                                                                                  09/01


                                                                                          10/01


                                                                                                  11/01


                                                                                                          12/01
                                                                                    本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考
10
                                60
                                     110
                                           160
                                                 210
                                                       260
                   04/12

                   05/06

                   05/12

                   06/06

                   06/12

                   07/06

                   07/12
                                                                     基本面才是王道




                   08/06

                   08/12
                                                       2227 裕日車收盤價




                   09/06

                   09/12

                   10/06

                   10/12

                   11/06

                   11/12
本報告為內部教育訓練使用僅供參考

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多頭空頭指標報告