This document discusses a study analyzing the impact of State of the Union addresses on presidential job approval ratings. The author coded State of the Union speeches from 1953 to 2010 based on the proportion of sentences focused on policy, national security, diplomacy/trade, politics, and patriotism. Regression analysis found that policy emphasis had the strongest positive relationship with changes in approval ratings. Political language, especially in election years, was negatively correlated with approval changes and levels. The author proposes expanding the study to include more speeches and coding the specific content in order to better understand these relationships.

1. A WORK IN PROGRESS BY:
KATIE KRUGER
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
I Like Your Style:
The State of the Union and Its Affect on
Presidential Job Approval

2. What is a “good” State of the Union?
 People care about the State of the Union A LOT
 But why is it important?
 It’s a reflection on the previous year
 It outlines the future agenda for the administration
 It’s a place for the president to show the nation who he is a leader
 But why work so hard on something that might have
been considered a constitutional formality?
 There is an expected benefit to be had from a “good” speech --- a
bump in job approval

3. Why is a high job approval important?
 It makes life easier politically
 The job approval taken after the SOTU is thought to be a
reflection on the success of the agenda
 Presidents use speeches to hide political deficiencies,
“spinning a mountain of success where only a molehill
exists” (Farnsworth 2009)
 Political rhetoric is used to gain acknowledgment of
previous accomplishments (Denton 1988)

4. After the SOTU Change after the SOTU
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1953
1964
1970
1976
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2010
Gallup After
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Gallup Diff
Presidential Job Approval

5. DOES THE CONTENT OF THE
STATE OF THE UNION
HAVE AN AFFECT ON PRESIDENTIAL JOB
APPROVAL?
Research Question

6. SOTU CODING
 All State of the Union addresses that were publically
broadcast from 1953-2010 were coded for the following
types of sentences:
 Policies and goals
 National Security
 International Diplomacy and Trade
 Patriotism
 Political Cooperation and Criticism
*Excluded: 1955-60, 1971, 1973, Carter’s 1981 because they were not
broadcast to the public.

7. Eisenhower 1954

8. Ford 1977

9. W. Bush 2002

10. Coding Over Time
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1953
1962
1965
1968
1971
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Policy
Security
Diplomacy/Trade
Politics
Patriotism

11. OLS
Regression
Results
Constant = -3.17, 76.94
N = 50
R2 = .13, .31
Values are unadjusted
OLS regression
coefficients and one-
tailed p-values
Change in Job
Approval
Job Approval
Policy .074
(.042)*
.116
(.202)
Security .012
(.38)
-.11
(.172)
Diplomacy .031
(.319)
-.047
(.407)
Politics -.027
(.308)
-.358
(.017)*
Patriotism .063
(.328)
-.262
(.275)
Divided Gov’t .733
(.287)
-4.53
(.132)
Election Yr -1.38
(.12)
-1.39
(.354
Economy .049
(.39)
-1.19
(.015)*

12. What we see
 Policy is the most important factor to determining a
positive change in job approval rating
 Political language, especially in an election climate,
has a negative affect on job approval in terms of
change and more generally
 Job approval data is still inconsistent.
 Average: 17.5 Days
 Range: 0 to 52 days

13. Goals for the Future
 Include more addresses, maybe looking beyond the
SOTU
 I’d like to look more closely at the specific content of the
speech and go beyond counts
 I’d also like to examine various proportions
 One category proportionately higher relative to another
 Address the weakness of the job approval data used here.
It is far too inconsistent to be reliable.

14. Questions and/or comments?
Thank you

15. Examples of coded sentences
Policy:
 I proposed to minimize environmental uncertainties affecting coal development, expand nuclear power
generation, and create an energy independence authority to provide government financial assistance for vital
energy programs where private capital is not available. --- Carter 1978
Security:
 We will stay on the offense; we will keep up the pressure; and we will deliver justice to our enemies. ---W.
Bush 2008
Diplomacy / Trade:
 We'll work with our trading partners for a new round of negotiations in support of freer world trade, greater
competition, and more open markets. ---Reagan 1984
Politics:
 Bluntly, I must remind you that we have not made satisfactory progress toward achieving energy
independence. ---Ford 1977
 And what the American people hope, what they deserve, is for all of us, Democrats and Republicans, to work
through our differences, to overcome the numbing weight of our politics. ---Obama 2010
Patriotism:
 The American economy is one of the wonders of the world. ---Eisenhower 1954
 Forty years ago, and then 20 years ago, two Presidents, one Democrat, one Republican, John F. Kennedy and
Ronald Reagan, advocated tax cuts to, in President Kennedy's words, "get this country moving again. ---W.
Bush 2001