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Small Business Health Index
June 2012

                                                              On a more positive note, the Failure Ratio Index con-
                                                              tinues to show significant favorable movements. Small
                                                              business failures have declined by approximately 35
                                                              percent in April 2012 compared to April 2010. This im-
                                                              provement signifies a post-recession recovery of small
                                                              businesses, at least in terms of their financial health.
                                                              This optimism is also supported by measures of delin-
                                                              quency rate as the values have steadily been improving.
                                                              The percent of delinquent dollars greater than 90 days
                                                              past due has decreased by roughly eight percent in April
                                                              2012 compared to the first quarter of 2010. Although the
                                                              drop in delinquent dollars is not as remarkable as that
                                                              of business failures, this component also purports an
                                                              optimistic outlook for small business.
                                                              The card delinquency rates also show improvement. The
                                                              percent of cards 61 plus days delinquent has declined
  D&B Key Observations                                        by approximately 19 percent. The Card Delinquency 61
                                                              days past due Index has been on a moderate upswing
  •  espite the continuing challenges in the
    D
                                                              since the last quarter of 2011 and its value stood at 41.10
    macroeconomic environment the June index
    reached its highest level in two years                    in April 2012 compared to 32.69 during the first quarter
                                                              of 2012.
  •  ccess to credit remains a challenge but other
    A                                                         So the story remains, small businesses are still strug-
    measures continue to improve
                                                              gling to hit their stride due to the tepid economic
  •  mproved financial health continues to provides
    I                                                         recovery and lingering impacts of the violent economic
    evidence of aggressive restructuring                      downturn of 2008. Financially the small business sector
                                                              of the U.S. economy has improved their balance sheets
                                                              and this improvement bodes well for the sector despite
                                                              the limited top line growth.
Dun  Bradstreet’s monthly composite index in April
2012 was in-line with past months, signifying the im-
proving health of small businesses in the U.S. The value       Small Business Health Index: Overall (Dec 2004=100)
of the index stood at 95.35 in April 2012, the highest         120
value attained in the last two years. The index still re-
mains below its 2004 level, reflecting the strain that the
                                                               100
economic cycle disproportionately placed on the small
business sector.
                                                                80

Behavior of the Sub-components
                                                                60
Sub-components of the index remain mixed. The Credit
Card Utilization portion of the index remained essentially
                                                                40
flat in throughout the latter part of 2011 and registered a
                                                                     Dec Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Feb Apr
slight increasing trend starting February 2012, reflecting           04 05 06 07 07 08 09 10 10 11 12 12
the ongoing challenges to have access to credit.
As Dun  Bradstreet, we are uniquely positioned and           The index is created by following a stratified sample of
have an “obligation” to provide our customers and the         all small active businesses (excluding branches) with
business community with relevant insight about the            total number of employees  100. The samples have the
economy. We have utilized our rich data to create a           same representation by Business Age, Number of Em-
measure of small business health as is reflected in their     ployees, Industry, and Payment experiences. Sample for
payment patterns, failure rates, and utilization on credit.   each period contain ~10MM small businesses.
The D  B index is a combination of pro-cyclical and          The Index value for each of the 4 parts as of December
counter-cyclical elements. The index is a measurement         2004 was considered as 100.
of small business health relative to 2004. The index
                                                              If Index in any of the following periods is higher than
should provide the user a quick but comprehensive
                                                              100 – it means improvement in specific metric, it
view of the health of small businesses.
                                                              happens when value of the attribute decreases as all
                                                              4 characteristics positively correlate with higher risk.
SBHI Methodology
                                                              The formulas to calculate Index for quarter n(qn):
The Index1 is based on 4 parts:
                                                              Index1(qn)=(Credit_card_utilization(Dec2004)/Credit_
    • Average Credit Card Utilization
                                                              card_utilization(qn))*100
    •  ercent of Credit Cards with outstanding
      P
                                                              Index2(qn)=(Percent_Credit_cards_cyc3p(Dec2004)/
      balance cycle3+ (61DPD+)
                                                              Percent_Credit_cards_cyc3p(qn))*100
    •  atio number of failures in the last 12 months
      R
                                                              Index3(qn)=(Ratio Failures over prior year (Dec2004)/
      over prior 12 months
                                                              Ratio of failures over prior year(qn))*100
    •  ercent of delinquent dollars 91DPD+ out of all
      P
                                                              Index4(qn)=(Percent of delinquent $91DPDP(Dec2004)/
      outstanding balance
                                                              Percent of delinquent $91DPDP(qn))*100
                                                              Composite Final Index=(Index1+Index2+index3+ind
                                                              ex4)/4;

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Small Business Health Index June 2012

  • 1. Small Business Health Index June 2012 On a more positive note, the Failure Ratio Index con- tinues to show significant favorable movements. Small business failures have declined by approximately 35 percent in April 2012 compared to April 2010. This im- provement signifies a post-recession recovery of small businesses, at least in terms of their financial health. This optimism is also supported by measures of delin- quency rate as the values have steadily been improving. The percent of delinquent dollars greater than 90 days past due has decreased by roughly eight percent in April 2012 compared to the first quarter of 2010. Although the drop in delinquent dollars is not as remarkable as that of business failures, this component also purports an optimistic outlook for small business. The card delinquency rates also show improvement. The percent of cards 61 plus days delinquent has declined D&B Key Observations by approximately 19 percent. The Card Delinquency 61 days past due Index has been on a moderate upswing • espite the continuing challenges in the D since the last quarter of 2011 and its value stood at 41.10 macroeconomic environment the June index reached its highest level in two years in April 2012 compared to 32.69 during the first quarter of 2012. • ccess to credit remains a challenge but other A So the story remains, small businesses are still strug- measures continue to improve gling to hit their stride due to the tepid economic • mproved financial health continues to provides I recovery and lingering impacts of the violent economic evidence of aggressive restructuring downturn of 2008. Financially the small business sector of the U.S. economy has improved their balance sheets and this improvement bodes well for the sector despite the limited top line growth. Dun Bradstreet’s monthly composite index in April 2012 was in-line with past months, signifying the im- proving health of small businesses in the U.S. The value Small Business Health Index: Overall (Dec 2004=100) of the index stood at 95.35 in April 2012, the highest 120 value attained in the last two years. The index still re- mains below its 2004 level, reflecting the strain that the 100 economic cycle disproportionately placed on the small business sector. 80 Behavior of the Sub-components 60 Sub-components of the index remain mixed. The Credit Card Utilization portion of the index remained essentially 40 flat in throughout the latter part of 2011 and registered a Dec Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Feb Apr slight increasing trend starting February 2012, reflecting 04 05 06 07 07 08 09 10 10 11 12 12 the ongoing challenges to have access to credit.
  • 2. As Dun Bradstreet, we are uniquely positioned and The index is created by following a stratified sample of have an “obligation” to provide our customers and the all small active businesses (excluding branches) with business community with relevant insight about the total number of employees 100. The samples have the economy. We have utilized our rich data to create a same representation by Business Age, Number of Em- measure of small business health as is reflected in their ployees, Industry, and Payment experiences. Sample for payment patterns, failure rates, and utilization on credit. each period contain ~10MM small businesses. The D B index is a combination of pro-cyclical and The Index value for each of the 4 parts as of December counter-cyclical elements. The index is a measurement 2004 was considered as 100. of small business health relative to 2004. The index If Index in any of the following periods is higher than should provide the user a quick but comprehensive 100 – it means improvement in specific metric, it view of the health of small businesses. happens when value of the attribute decreases as all 4 characteristics positively correlate with higher risk. SBHI Methodology The formulas to calculate Index for quarter n(qn): The Index1 is based on 4 parts: Index1(qn)=(Credit_card_utilization(Dec2004)/Credit_ • Average Credit Card Utilization card_utilization(qn))*100 • ercent of Credit Cards with outstanding P Index2(qn)=(Percent_Credit_cards_cyc3p(Dec2004)/ balance cycle3+ (61DPD+) Percent_Credit_cards_cyc3p(qn))*100 • atio number of failures in the last 12 months R Index3(qn)=(Ratio Failures over prior year (Dec2004)/ over prior 12 months Ratio of failures over prior year(qn))*100 • ercent of delinquent dollars 91DPD+ out of all P Index4(qn)=(Percent of delinquent $91DPDP(Dec2004)/ outstanding balance Percent of delinquent $91DPDP(qn))*100 Composite Final Index=(Index1+Index2+index3+ind ex4)/4;