This document discusses Gilbert of Poitiers' conception of modality and ontology. It begins by outlining ancient and medieval conceptions of modality as statistical, diachronic, or potentiality. It then examines Gilbert's development of a synchronic conception of modality involving alternative possible worlds and histories of the world. The document also analyzes Gilbert's ontology, distinguishing between subsistens/id quod est and subsistentia/id quo est. It discusses how Gilbert defines the individuum based on properties that differ from all others actually or potentially. This modal definition of individuum incorporates possible as well as actual properties and lays the groundwork for considering counterfactual identity across possible worlds in Gilbert's framework.
This document discusses Gilbert of Poitiers' conception of modality and ontology. It begins by outlining ancient and medieval conceptions of modality as statistical, diachronic, or potentiality. It then examines Gilbert's development of a synchronic conception of modality involving alternative possible worlds and histories of the world. The document also analyzes Gilbert's ontology, distinguishing between subsistens/id quod est and subsistentia/id quo est. It discusses how Gilbert defines the individuum based on properties that differ from all others actually or potentially. This modal definition of individuum incorporates possible as well as actual properties and lays the groundwork for considering counterfactual identity across possible worlds in Gilbert's framework.
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
Creative operations teams expect increased AI use in 2024. Currently, over half of tasks are not AI-enabled, but this is expected to decrease in the coming year. ChatGPT is the most popular AI tool currently. Business leaders are more actively exploring AI benefits than individual contributors. Most respondents do not believe AI will impact workforce size in 2024. However, some inhibitions still exist around AI accuracy and lack of understanding. Creatives primarily want to use AI to save time on mundane tasks and boost productivity.
Organizational culture includes values, norms, systems, symbols, language, assumptions, beliefs, and habits that influence employee behaviors and how people interpret those behaviors. It is important because culture can help or hinder a company's success. Some key aspects of Netflix's culture that help it achieve results include hiring smartly so every position has stars, focusing on attitude over just aptitude, and having a strict policy against peacocks, whiners, and jerks.
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024Neil Kimberley
PepsiCo provided a safe harbor statement noting that any forward-looking statements are based on currently available information and are subject to risks and uncertainties. It also provided information on non-GAAP measures and directing readers to its website for disclosure and reconciliation. The document then discussed PepsiCo's business overview, including that it is a global beverage and convenient food company with iconic brands, $91 billion in net revenue in 2023, and nearly $14 billion in core operating profit. It operates through a divisional structure with a focus on local consumers.
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)contently
This document provides an overview of content methodology best practices. It defines content methodology as establishing objectives, KPIs, and a culture of continuous learning and iteration. An effective methodology focuses on connecting with audiences, creating optimal content, and optimizing processes. It also discusses why a methodology is needed due to the competitive landscape, proliferation of channels, and opportunities for improvement. Components of an effective methodology include defining objectives and KPIs, audience analysis, identifying opportunities, and evaluating resources. The document concludes with recommendations around creating a content plan, testing and optimizing content over 90 days.
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024Albert Qian
The document provides guidance on preparing a job search for 2024. It discusses the state of the job market, focusing on growth in AI and healthcare but also continued layoffs. It recommends figuring out what you want to do by researching interests and skills, then conducting informational interviews. The job search should involve building a personal brand on LinkedIn, actively applying to jobs, tailoring resumes and interviews, maintaining job hunting as a habit, and continuing self-improvement. Once hired, the document advises setting new goals and keeping skills and networking active in case of future opportunities.
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
The document provides career advice for getting into the tech field, including:
- Doing projects and internships in college to build a portfolio.
- Learning about different roles and technologies through industry research.
- Contributing to open source projects to build experience and network.
- Developing a personal brand through a website and social media presence.
- Networking through events, communities, and finding a mentor.
- Practicing interviews through mock interviews and whiteboarding coding questions.
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
1. Core updates from Google periodically change how its algorithms assess and rank websites and pages. This can impact rankings through shifts in user intent, site quality issues being caught up to, world events influencing queries, and overhauls to search like the E-A-T framework.
2. There are many possible user intents beyond just transactional, navigational and informational. Identifying intent shifts is important during core updates. Sites may need to optimize for new intents through different content types and sections.
3. Responding effectively to core updates requires analyzing "before and after" data to understand changes, identifying new intents or page types, and ensuring content matches appropriate intents across video, images, knowledge graphs and more.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
Creative operations teams expect increased AI use in 2024. Currently, over half of tasks are not AI-enabled, but this is expected to decrease in the coming year. ChatGPT is the most popular AI tool currently. Business leaders are more actively exploring AI benefits than individual contributors. Most respondents do not believe AI will impact workforce size in 2024. However, some inhibitions still exist around AI accuracy and lack of understanding. Creatives primarily want to use AI to save time on mundane tasks and boost productivity.
Organizational culture includes values, norms, systems, symbols, language, assumptions, beliefs, and habits that influence employee behaviors and how people interpret those behaviors. It is important because culture can help or hinder a company's success. Some key aspects of Netflix's culture that help it achieve results include hiring smartly so every position has stars, focusing on attitude over just aptitude, and having a strict policy against peacocks, whiners, and jerks.
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024Neil Kimberley
PepsiCo provided a safe harbor statement noting that any forward-looking statements are based on currently available information and are subject to risks and uncertainties. It also provided information on non-GAAP measures and directing readers to its website for disclosure and reconciliation. The document then discussed PepsiCo's business overview, including that it is a global beverage and convenient food company with iconic brands, $91 billion in net revenue in 2023, and nearly $14 billion in core operating profit. It operates through a divisional structure with a focus on local consumers.
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)contently
This document provides an overview of content methodology best practices. It defines content methodology as establishing objectives, KPIs, and a culture of continuous learning and iteration. An effective methodology focuses on connecting with audiences, creating optimal content, and optimizing processes. It also discusses why a methodology is needed due to the competitive landscape, proliferation of channels, and opportunities for improvement. Components of an effective methodology include defining objectives and KPIs, audience analysis, identifying opportunities, and evaluating resources. The document concludes with recommendations around creating a content plan, testing and optimizing content over 90 days.
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024Albert Qian
The document provides guidance on preparing a job search for 2024. It discusses the state of the job market, focusing on growth in AI and healthcare but also continued layoffs. It recommends figuring out what you want to do by researching interests and skills, then conducting informational interviews. The job search should involve building a personal brand on LinkedIn, actively applying to jobs, tailoring resumes and interviews, maintaining job hunting as a habit, and continuing self-improvement. Once hired, the document advises setting new goals and keeping skills and networking active in case of future opportunities.
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
The document provides career advice for getting into the tech field, including:
- Doing projects and internships in college to build a portfolio.
- Learning about different roles and technologies through industry research.
- Contributing to open source projects to build experience and network.
- Developing a personal brand through a website and social media presence.
- Networking through events, communities, and finding a mentor.
- Practicing interviews through mock interviews and whiteboarding coding questions.
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentLily Ray
1. Core updates from Google periodically change how its algorithms assess and rank websites and pages. This can impact rankings through shifts in user intent, site quality issues being caught up to, world events influencing queries, and overhauls to search like the E-A-T framework.
2. There are many possible user intents beyond just transactional, navigational and informational. Identifying intent shifts is important during core updates. Sites may need to optimize for new intents through different content types and sections.
3. Responding effectively to core updates requires analyzing "before and after" data to understand changes, identifying new intents or page types, and ensuring content matches appropriate intents across video, images, knowledge graphs and more.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Slide turing
1. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a
Bletchley Park
Come Turing neutralizzò la macchina Enigma
22 maggio 2013
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
2. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
La macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
Fattore Bayesiano.
Peso dell’evidenza.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
Crib e Menù.
Banburismus.
La macchina Bomba.
Bibliografia
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
3. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
4. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Figura: Rotore
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
5. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
6. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
7. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Enigma 04.JPG
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
8. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Variabili determinanti per il settaggio di una macchina
Enigma
(Walzenlage) scelta ed ordine dei rotori;
(Ringstellung) posizione dell’anello cifrato (o numerato)
relativamente alla bobina del rotore;
(Steckerverbindungen) connessioni del plug-board;
Messaggio chiave di partenza
Codifica
−−−−−→ Messaggio chiave.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
9. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Variabili determinanti per il settaggio di una macchina
Enigma
(Walzenlage) scelta ed ordine dei rotori;
(Ringstellung) posizione dell’anello cifrato (o numerato)
relativamente alla bobina del rotore;
(Steckerverbindungen) connessioni del plug-board;
Messaggio chiave di partenza
Codifica
−−−−−→ Messaggio chiave.
Il numero di possibili configurazioni della macchina Enigma:
158.962.555.217.826.360.000
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
10. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Messaggi intercettati (Evidenza) Ipotesi
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
11. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Messaggi intercettati (Evidenza) Ipotesi
Quantificare il peso dell’evidenza fornito da indizi individuali
per ipotesi alternative in considerazione.
Un metodo per aggiornare queste quantità data nuova
evidenza.
Metodo di decisione per determinare quando l’evidenza era
sufficente per decidere tra le varie ipotesi possibili.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
12. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Teoria della probablità
Definizione
Sia S un insieme e sia A un’algebra su S (cioè un insieme di sottoinsiemi di S contenente S e chiuso
sotto unione e complemento). Una misura di probabilità P su (S, A) è una funzione P : A −→ [0, 1] tale
che:
1. P(S) = 1;
2. dati E, H ∈ A tale che E ∩ H = ∅ allora P(E ∪ H) = P(E) + P(H).
Definizione
Sia P una funzione di probabilità su (S, A) e siano E, H ∈ A tale che P(H) > 0. Definiamo la funzione
di probabilità condizionale nel seguente modo
P(E | H) =
P(E ∩ H)
P(H)
Teorema di Bayes
Sia P(· | ·) una funzione di probablità condizionale e siano E, H ∈ A tali che P(H) > 0 e P(E) > 0
allora:
P(E | H) =
P(H | E) · P(E)
P(H)
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
13. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Quota
Data una probabilità P e un evento E, la quota O(E) corrispondente alla
probabilità P(E) è definita dalla frazione
P(E)
1 − P(E)
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
14. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Quota
Data una probabilità P e un evento E, la quota O(E) corrispondente alla
probabilità P(E) è definita dalla frazione
P(E)
1 − P(E)
Esempio
P(E) = 0 O(E) = 0
P(E) =
2
3
O(E) = 2
P(E) = 1 O(E) = ∞
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
15. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Quota
Data una probabilità P e un evento E, la quota O(E) corrispondente alla
probabilità P(E) è definita dalla frazione
P(E)
1 − P(E)
Esempio
P(E) = 0 O(E) = 0
P(E) =
2
3
O(E) = 2
P(E) = 1 O(E) = ∞
Le quote sono spesso scritte nella forma m:n per m, n ∈ R. Alla quota m:n
corrisponde la probabilità
m
m + n
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
16. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Esempio
Urna.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
17. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Esempio
Urna.
Sette palline numerate da 1 a 7.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
18. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Esempio
Urna.
Sette palline numerate da 1 a 7.
Probabilità di pescare la pallina con il numero 5 è uguale a 1
7.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
19. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Esempio
Urna.
Sette palline numerate da 1 a 7.
Probabilità di pescare la pallina con il numero 5 è uguale a 1
7.
La quota a favore corrispondente è 1
6 .
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
20. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Esempio
Urna.
Sette palline numerate da 1 a 7.
Probabilità di pescare la pallina con il numero 5 è uguale a 1
7.
La quota a favore corrispondente è 1
6 .
1:6.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
21. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Definizione
Sia P(· | ·) una funzione di probabilità, e siano H ed E due
proposizioni. Definiamo la quota di H dato E nel seguente modo:
O(H | E) =
P(H | E)
P(¯H | E)
Teorema di Bayes espresso tramite la quota
Siano H ed E due proposizioni e sia P(· | ·) una funzione di
probabilità allora:
O(H | E)
O(H)
=
P(E | H)
P(E | ¯H)
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
22. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
O(H|E)
O(H) è il fattore tramite il quale la quota iniziale di H dovrà
essere moltiplicato per ottenere la quota finale. Per tale motivo
Turing chiamò questo fattore “il fattore (Bayesiano) in favore di
un’ipotesi H in virtù del risultato dell’esperimento E”
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
23. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
O(H|E)
O(H) è il fattore tramite il quale la quota iniziale di H dovrà
essere moltiplicato per ottenere la quota finale. Per tale motivo
Turing chiamò questo fattore “il fattore (Bayesiano) in favore di
un’ipotesi H in virtù del risultato dell’esperimento E”
Teorema di Bayes espresso tramite la quota
Siano H ed E due proposizioni e sia P(· | ·) una funzione di probabilità allora:
O(H | E) = O(H) ·
O(H | E)
O(H)
= O(H) ·
P(E | H)
P(E | ¯H)
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
24. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
O(H|E)
O(H) è il fattore tramite il quale la quota iniziale di H dovrà
essere moltiplicato per ottenere la quota finale. Per tale motivo
Turing chiamò questo fattore “il fattore (Bayesiano) in favore di
un’ipotesi H in virtù del risultato dell’esperimento E”
Teorema di Bayes espresso tramite la quota
Siano H ed E due proposizioni e sia P(· | ·) una funzione di probabilità allora:
O(H | E) = O(H) ·
O(H | E)
O(H)
= O(H) ·
P(E | H)
P(E | ¯H)
I.J. Good, Weight of evidence and Bayesian likelihood ratio in The Use Of
Statistics In Forensic Science pp. 85-105, C. G. G. Aitken,David A. Stoney,
Ellis Horwood Limited, 1991, p.89.
Il teorema di Bayes espresso tramite la quota è particolarmente
conveniente quado speriamo di discriminare tra due ipotesi
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
25. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Peso dell’evidenza
Definizione
Sia H un’ipotesi ed E la proposizione che asserisce il risultato di un
esperimento. Definiamo il peso dell’evidenza in favore di H fornito
da E nel seguente modo
W [H : E] = logα
P(E | H)
P(E | ¯H)
= logα
O(H | E)
O(H)
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
26. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Peso dell’evidenza
Definizione
Sia H un’ipotesi ed E la proposizione che asserisce il risultato di un
esperimento. Definiamo il peso dell’evidenza in favore di H fornito
da E nel seguente modo
W [H : E] = logα
P(E | H)
P(E | ¯H)
= logα
O(H | E)
O(H)
La base del logaritmo α da l’unità di misura del peso dell’evidenza
di un’ipotesi. Turing chiamò ban l’unità del peso di evidenza di
un’ipotesi quando la base del logaritmo è 10 e con ban naturale
l’unità del peso dell’evidenza di un’ipotesi quando la base del
logaritmo è e. L’unità di misura principalmente usata a Bletchley
Park era quella del deciban (db) equivalente a 10 ban.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
27. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Teorema
Supponiamo che siano stati fatti una serie di esperimenti i cui
risultati sono descritti dalle proposizioni E1, E2,...,En e supponiamo
che questi esperimenti siano indipendenti sia dato H che dato ¯H.
Allora il fattore Bayesiano risultante è uguale al prodotto dei fattori
Bayesiani individuali e quindi il peso di evidenza risultante è uguale
alla somma dei pesi di evidenza individuali, cioè valgono le seguenti
uguglianze:
P(E1 ∩ ... ∩ En | H)
P(E1 ∩ ... ∩ En | ¯H)
=
P(E1 | H)
P(E1 | ¯H)
· ... ·
P(En | H)
P(En | ¯H)
logα
P(E1 ∩ ... ∩ En | H)
P(E1 ∩ ... ∩ En | ¯H)
= logα
P(E1 | H)
P(E1 | ¯H)
+ ... + logα
P(En | H)
P(En | ¯H)
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
28. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Teorema di Bayes espresso tramite il peso dell’evidenza
Siano H ed E due proposizioni e sia P(· | ·) una funzione di probabilità allora:
logα O(H | E) = logα O(H) + logα
O(H | E)
O(H)
= logα O(H) + logα
P(E | H)
P(E | ¯H)
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
29. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Teorema di Bayes espresso tramite il peso dell’evidenza
Siano H ed E due proposizioni e sia P(· | ·) una funzione di probabilità allora:
logα O(H | E) = logα O(H) + logα
O(H | E)
O(H)
= logα O(H) + logα
P(E | H)
P(E | ¯H)
Definizione
Sia P(· | ·) una funzione di probabiltà, sia H un’ipotesi e supponiamo che E sia
un esperimento il quale dovrà avere uno dei seguenti risultati esclusivi,
E1, ..., En. Definiamo il peso dell’evidenza atteso come:
E(W [H : E]) =
X
i∈{1,...,n}
P(Ei | H) logα
P(Ei | H)
P(Ei | ¯H)
.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
30. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Teorema di Bayes espresso tramite il peso dell’evidenza
Siano H ed E due proposizioni e sia P(· | ·) una funzione di probabilità allora:
logα O(H | E) = logα O(H) + logα
O(H | E)
O(H)
= logα O(H) + logα
P(E | H)
P(E | ¯H)
Definizione
Sia P(· | ·) una funzione di probabiltà, sia H un’ipotesi e supponiamo che E sia
un esperimento il quale dovrà avere uno dei seguenti risultati esclusivi,
E1, ..., En. Definiamo il peso dell’evidenza atteso come:
E(W [H : E]) =
X
i∈{1,...,n}
P(Ei | H) logα
P(Ei | H)
P(Ei | ¯H)
.
I.J. Good A list of proprieties of Bayes-Turing Factors
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
31. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Variabili determinanti per il settaggio di una macchina
Enigma
(Walzenlage) scelta ed ordine dei rotori;
(Ringstellung) posizione dell’anello cifrato (o numerato)
relativamente alla bobina del rotore;
(Steckerverbindungen) connessioni del plug-board;
Messaggio chiave di partenza
Codifica
−−−−−→ Messaggio chiave.
Il numero di possibili configurazioni della macchina Enigma:
158.962.555.217.826.360.000 (158 quintilioni, 1030)
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
32. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Crib e Menù.
Banburismus.
Macchina Bomba.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
33. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Figura: Macchina BombaPeso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
34. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Figura: Particolare Macchina Bomba
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
35. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Numero di macchine a tre rotori
Anno Mese Numero di macchine
1941 Dicembre 12
1942 Dicembre 40
1943 Giugno 72
1943 Dicembre 87
1944 Dicembre 151
1945 Maggio 152
Numero di macchine a quattro rotori (Inghilterra, U.S.A)
Anno Mese Numero di macchine
1943 Giugno 4
1943 Dicembre 95
1944 Dicembre 160
1945 Maggio 180
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
36. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Crib e Menù
Un Crib è un messagio parzialmente decodificato tramite
considerazione non crittoanalitiche.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
37. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Crib e Menù
Un Crib è un messagio parzialmente decodificato tramite
considerazione non crittoanalitiche.
WETTER
ETJWPX
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
38. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Crib e Menù
Un Crib è un messagio parzialmente decodificato tramite
considerazione non crittoanalitiche.
WETTER
ETJWPX
nell’assetto “a” Enigma codifica la lettera W con la lettera E;
nell’assetto “a + 1” Enigma codifica la lettera E con la lettera
T;
nell’assetto “a + 3” Enigma codifica la lettera T con la lettera
W .
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
39. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Utilizzando le considerazioni ora fatte vediamo come creare un
menù. a partire da un dato Crib.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Crib b e a c h b a g
Testo codificato d f f e e a c f
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
40. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Figura: Esempio di menù
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
41. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Stop
Ogni stop suggeriva:
un possibile ordine dei rotori;
una possibile posizione iniziale dell’anello cifrato;
un insieme incompleto di collegamenti del plug-board.
Tutti i dati mancanti venivano trovati per tentativi ed errori tramite
simulatori di macchine Enigma. Il problema era: da quale stop
iniziare?
Dato un insieme di stop, il peso dell’evidenza permetteva di
ordinare questi dal più possibile al meno possibile.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
42. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Da quale stop iniziare?
Sia N il numero totale delle possibili combinazione del plug-board con 10 cavi.
Sia s il numero di connessioni con se stesso (autoconnessioni) date dallo stop S.
Sia r il numero di connessioni a coppia dato dallo stop S.
Sia M(s, r) il numero di modi distinti tramite i quali è possibile estendere s a 6
autoconnessioni e r a 10 connessioni di coppia.
La probabilità che le iniziali connessioni s e r fornite dallo stop S siano corrette è dato
da
M(s, r)
N
Il numero di possibili posizioni iniziali dei rotori è 263 e quindi la probabilità che lo
stop S sia corretta è data da
P(S) =
M(s, r)
N · 263
Dunque la probabilità che un dato stop S sia sbagliato è dato da
P(S ) = 1 −
M(s, r)
N · 263
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
43. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Sia D l’evento che un dato stop S decodifica (correttamente) le lettere sul crib. Allora
la probabilità che un dato stop sia corretto e decodifica tutte le lettere del crib è data
da
P(S ∩ D) =
M(s, r)
N · 263
· 1
La probabilità che un dato stop S scorretto decodifichi correttamente il crib è
P(S ∩ D) =
„
1 −
M(s, r)
N · 263
«
·
„
1
25
«l
per l numero di lettere del menù.
Definita con O(S | D) la quota che uno stop S sia corretto dato che ha decodificato
correttamente le lettere del crib si ha:
O(S | D) =
P(S | D)
P(¯S | D)
=
P(S ∧ D)
P(¯S ∧ D)
=
M(s, r) · 25l
N · 263
La possibilità che un particolare stop S dia la chiave parziale corretta è
5 · log10O(S | D)
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
44. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Il peso dell’evidenza permetteva anche la compilazione della
seguente tabella.
Stima del numero di stop per ordine di rotori
Numero di lettere sul menù
Loops 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
3 2.2 1.1 0.42 0.14 0.04 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01
2 58 28 11 3.8 1.2 0.30 0.06 < 0.01 < 0.01
1 1500 720 280 100 31 7.7 1.6 0.28 0.04
0 40,000 19,000 7300 2700 820 200 43 7.3 1.0
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
45. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Regola: non usare menù il cui valore atteso è più grande di
quattro stop per ordine di rotori.
Stima del numero di stop per ordine di rotori
Numero di lettere sul menù
Loops 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
3 2.2 1.1 0.42 0.14 0.04 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01 <0.01
2 58 28 11 3.8 1.2 0.30 0.06 < 0.01 < 0.01
1 1500 720 280 100 31 7.7 1.6 0.28 0.04
0 40,000 19,000 7300 2700 820 200 43 7.3 1.0
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
46. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Banburismus
Il Banburismus era un processo tramite il quale era possibile
identificare il rotore centrale e il rotore di destra della macchina
Enigma.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
47. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Banburismus
Il Banburismus era un processo tramite il quale era possibile
identificare il rotore centrale e il rotore di destra della macchina
Enigma.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
48. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Banburismus
Il Banburismus era un processo tramite il quale era possibile
identificare il rotore centrale e il rotore di destra della macchina
Enigma.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
49. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Banburismus
Il Banburismus era un processo tramite il quale era possibile
identificare il rotore centrale e il rotore di destra della macchina
Enigma.
Tramite il peso dell’evidenza era possibile calcolare quale tra i 50
offset controllati avesse più possibilità di rappresentare due
messaggi in depth.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
50. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Come utilizzare l’informazione che due messaggi sono in depth?
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
51. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Come utilizzare l’informazione che due messaggi sono in depth?
VFX, VFG X = G + 10
VFX, VFQ X = Q − 2
VFH, VFX H = X − 4
VFB, VFG B = G + 3
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
52. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Come utilizzare l’informazione che due messaggi sono in depth?
VFX, VFG X = G + 10
VFX, VFQ X = Q − 2
VFH, VFX H = X − 4
VFB, VFG B = G + 3
G − −B − −H − − − X − Q
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
53. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
54. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
55. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
E se aggiungiamo nuova evidenza?
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
56. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
E se aggiungiamo nuova evidenza?
VFA, VFF A = F + 5
VFA, VFD D = A + 3
VFD, VFO O = D + 4
VFF, VFX X = F + 2
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
57. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
E se aggiungiamo nuova evidenza?
VFA, VFF A = F + 5
VFA, VFD D = A + 3
VFD, VFO O = D + 4
VFF, VFX X = F + 2
G − −B − −H − F − X − QA − −D − − − O
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
58. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
La tabella che segue ci dice che l’unico rotore possibile è il numero
I.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
59. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Intercettazione del messaggio codificato tramite una machina
Enigma.
Crib e Menù.
Banburismus (fino 1943).
Macchina Bomba.
Stop della macchina Bomba.
Ordinamento degli Stop da più probabile a meno probabile.
Ultime verifiche (tentativi ed errori) fatte tramite macchine
Enigma o simulatori di macchine Enigma.
Decodifica del messaggio.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
60. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
Peso dell’evidenza: dove e perchè
(1) Analisi sequenziale.
(2) Matematica della filosofia
Probabilità;
Induzione;
gradi di corroborazione;
causalità probabilistica;
razionalità
(3) Teoria dell’informazione.
(4) Teoria della decisione.
(5) Incertezza di secondo tipo.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park
61. Struttura della presentazione
La Macchina Enigma
Concetti di base
A Bletchley Park
BIBLIOGRAFIA
B. Jack Copeland The Essential Turing: Seminal Writings in Computing,
Logic, Philosophy, Artificial Intelligence, and Artificial Life: Plus The
Secrets of Enigma, OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2004.
I. J. Good, Probability and the Weighing of Evidence, London, Charles
Griffin & company Limited, 1950.
I. J. Good, Studies in History of Probability and Statistics. XXXVII A.M.
Turing’s Statistical Work in World War II, Biometrica, Vol. 66, No.2
(Aug., 1979), pp.393-396.
I.J. Good, Weight of Evidence: A Brief Survey, in J.M. Bernardo, M.H.
Degroot, D.V. Lindley, A.F.M Smith (ed.) Bayesian Statistics 2,
Proceedings of the second Valencia international Meeting, September
6/10 1983, pp 249-270 Elsevier Science Pubblishers B.V (North-Holland),
1985.
Peso dell’evidenza, Probabilità e Statistica a Bletchley Park