This lecture discusses climate change impacts on the tourism industry. It begins with an introduction to climate change itself, including its main causes and efforts to address it such as the Kyoto Protocol. It then examines tourism's role as both a contributor to climate change through associated emissions and a victim of climate impacts. Several places facing challenges are highlighted through examples, such as low-lying island nations and destinations dependent on activities like skiing or reefs. Overall, the impacts are expected to be uneven, with some areas potentially benefiting as others struggle due to changes in climate conditions.

1. This lecture is for
class viewing only
and is not to be
reproduced,
distributed or shared
in any form.

2. Media for this week:
A) The Maldives – Vulnerabilities and
challenges 19 min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXbO2JnCVg8
B) Climate change challenges: Sinking
city of Venice 10 min.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQyv_dVQhAs

3. Episode 5:
Climate Change and Tourism
Dr. Wes Kinghorn

4. Today we will talk about the
Geography of climate change impacts on
tourism;
I will show you a couple of longer videos than
usual (10-20 min), so that you can hear about
this directly from those effected and see the
challenges first hand.

5. To begin…
Introduction:
Today, we will briefly discuss climate change
itself, and how interest in this area of study grew,
both generally and specifically for tourism.
I will then explore climate change impacts in a
wide variety of world places, rather than just the
commonly referred to ones (such as ski resorts).
Boris Vukonić

6. The Readings
Please read them carefully, as this lecture will
support the readings, but not cover all of them.
(this is always true of course)

7. Reading A

8. Wes Kinghorn

9. Reading A
A short reading that I will not cover
in the lecture.
Do not worry about the formulas!
They are not required for this course…
Just get an idea of what the various models do!

10. Reading A
Read all of sections 1, 2 and conclusions…
…but only the first paragraph
of each of these sections: 3, 4, 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3

11. Reading B

12. Wes Kinghorn

13. Base concepts:
Climate change:
In this course, Climate Change is not treated as a debate.
Quite simply there is…
“…strong scientific evidence that human action is a key
driver in the current warming of the atmosphere and
that this process will exert a significant impact on
humanity in future decades (IPCC, 2007; Stern, 2006).”
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

14. Bill Nye got us started…

15. Base concepts:
Climate change:
The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[IPCC], 2007) states explicitly that:
“warming of the climate system is unequivocal”
(IPCC, 2007, p. 30)
and that:
“most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is
very likely due to the observed increase
in anthropogenic GHG concentrations”
(IPCC, 2007, p. 39)
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

16. Base concepts:
Climate change:
While there remains a small group of sceptics who dispute
anthropogenic causes (see Gladstones, 2011; Plimer, 2009)…
“…there is broad consensus among the scientific
community about the causes and likely impacts.
A vast body of rigorous scientific research
supports these claims
(McMullen, 2009).”
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

17. Base concepts:
Climate change:
What is uncertain is the speed at which change will
occur and the extent of that change.
This has serious impacts on the predictive abilities of
nations, cities, individuals, and yes…
…the tourism industry.
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

18. Climate Change (a primer):
Current climate change is a direct result of increasing
emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), including:
 Carbon dioxide (CO2);
 Methane (CH3);
 Ozone (O4);
 Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and;
 Nitrous oxide (N2O).
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

19. Climate Change:
 The single greatest contributor is (?)
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

20. The New Economy

21. Climate Change:
 The single greatest contributor is the burning of
fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas);
 Also (?)
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

22. The Financial Times

23. Climate Change:
 The single greatest contributor is the burning of
fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas);
 Agricultural activities (IPCC, 2007) are also a major
contributor;
 Also (?)
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

24. The Bloomtrigger blog

25. Climate Change:
 The single greatest contributor is the burning of
fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas);
 Agricultural activities (IPCC, 2007) are also a major
contributor;
 Slash and burn deforestation is common in many
parts of the world and contributes directly to CO2
emissions, while the reduction in forest cover
reduces the earth’s ability to absorb CO2.
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

26. Climate Change:
“Atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen from 280 ppm
(parts per million) at the beginning of the Industrial Age
in the nineteenth century to 390 ppm in October 2011”
(WMO, 2011)
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

27. Climate Change:
Global action to combat climate change has been slow
and formally commenced with the Kyoto Protocol
initially adopted in December 1997.
Under the protocol, 37 ‘developed’ countries and the
European Community agreed to reduce four GHGs
(CO2, CH3, N2O and SF6) and two types of gasses
(hydro-fluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) by 5.2%
on average for the period 2008–2012 relative
to base year emissions in 1990.
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

28. Climate Change:
The USA did not ratify the Protocol at the
time, greatly reducing its effectiveness.
Few countries have made any serious
efforts at that critical time, or to date.
…and here we are.
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

29. Scientific Interest in Climate Change:
• Interest in climate change grew slowly through the 1970s and
early 1980s.
• Fewer than 10 papers a year were published in the 1970s,
while, typically, between 15 and 30 papers a year were
published in the early to mid-1980s.
• Interest grew strongly in the early 1990s, with the number of
journal articles jumping from 90 in 1989 to 573 in 1995.
• A geometric rise in published research has been noted since
then, with more than 9,700 academic journal articles
published in 2010.
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

30. Sharon F.H. Pang et al.
Number of Journal Articles on Climate Change Per Year
Source: Scopus.com

31. PART 1:
Let’s consider the tourism industry & climate
change generally…

32. Part 1:
The Tourism Industry & Climate Change
The tourism industry is in the unique and unenviable
position of being simultaneously:
a major contributor of GHGs, and;
a significant victim of changing climate.

33. Tourism as contributor to climate change…
The United Nations World Tourism Organization
estimates that tourism contributed to about:
 5% of total global CO2 emissions, and;
 Up to 14% of all emissions when other GHGs are
considered.
(Simpson,Gossling, Scott, Hall, & Gladin, 2008; UNWTO-UNEP-WMO, 2008)

34. Tourism as contributor to climate change…
Tourism’s Global Share of Carbon Emissions.
Source: Adapted from UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008)
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

35. Tourism as contributor to climate change…
+
+
+
+
=
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

36. Tourism as victim of climate change…
We’ll watch the video ahead, but first…

37. Take a moment to consider…
…close your eyes for a moment.
What changes are coming for tourism globally…?
Time

38. Media A:
The Maldives:
Vulnerabilities and climate change challenges
(20 min)

39. Riu.com
The Maldives:
Vulnerabilities and climate change challenges
(20 min)

40. PART 2:
Let’s consider climate change impacts on
different places around the planet…

41. Part 2:
Places and how they are impacted
Jopp, DeLacy, and Mair (2010) developed a
two phase framework for regional destination
adaptation to climate change based on an
analysis of existing frameworks.

42. Framework for Regional Destination Adaptation to Climate Change
Source: Jopp et al. (2010)
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.
We’ll discuss this in detail in a moment – just look over it for now…

43. Places and how they are impacted
Phase 1 involves an assessment of a
destination’s vulnerability and resilience
by defining the components of the tourism
system, evaluating risks and opportunities,
and then determining the
adaptive capacity of the destination.

44. Framework for Regional Destination Adaptation to Climate Change
Source: Jopp et al. (2010)

45. Places and how they are impacted
Phase 2 focuses on increasing the destination’s
resilience, resistance and readiness with the goal
of enhancing its ability to absorb change, reduce
the number of impacts that are likely to affect
tourism, and be ready to take advantage of
opportunities that arise.

46. Framework for Regional Destination Adaptation to Climate Change
Source: Jopp et al. (2010)

47. Places and how they are impacted
It is obvious that as a weather-dependent industry,
tourism will be affected by climate change.
Scott et al. (2008) in their report commissioned by the
UN’s World Tourism Organization classified the range of
climate change impacts on tourism into the direct and
indirect impacts of climate, with possible changes to
tourist mobility, destination vulnerability and social
impacts.
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

48. Places and how they are impacted
• Early research tended to focus on tourism as a
potential victim of climate change, although it was
recognized that impacts would be uneven,
potentially benefiting some destinations.
• This “Victim, Winner, Loser” theme has continued to
dominate much of the research agenda to the
present.
Sharon F.H. Pang et al.

49. Places and how they are impacted
“[in] a higher CO2 world, the overall volume of
tourism, the pattern of outdoor pursuits, the
degree of customer satisfaction and even the levels
of safety in some environments are all likely to change…
Smith (1990)

50. Places and how they are impacted
…winter sport and beach holiday facilities
will be directly threatened by global warming and
sea level rise. Enhanced temperatures in the
midlatitudes may well reduce the relative attraction of
some Mediterranean and longer-haul destinations,
especially if areas like the Caribbean become more
prone to hurricanes.”
Relative? Why?
…let’s discuss on the next slide…
Smith (1990)

51. Places and how they are impacted
So…
The emphasis is not only on impacts in
destination areas,
but also, the importance of the
originating market’s climate!
Why?
Smith (1990)

52. Places and how they are impacted
Smith showed a direct link between a wet and cold
summer in England and an increase in travel to Portugal
in the subsequent winter.
He suggests that warmer weather within the originating
region may also convince more people to take domestic
holidays. The impact of climate change on tourist
satisfaction also features …where he suggests that
tourists will become more discriminating as they
become aware of the impact of climate on the quality
of recreational experiences.
Smith (1990)

53. Places and how they are impacted
Some examples…
Smith (1990)

54. Places and how they are impacted
Low-lying touristic islands may become flooded…
(Maddison, 2001)
Smith (1990)

55. Tropical Nites

56. Places and how they are impacted
Demand during the summer peak season in places such
as Spain, France, Italy, Greece and Turkey may fall as
temperatures exceed comfortable levels…
(Amelung, Nicholls, & Viner, 2007)
Smith (1990)

57. Doctors in Italy

58. Places and how they are impacted
Coral reef-dependent destinations will also come
under pressure as coral bleaching reduces the appeal…
(Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999)
Smith (1990)

59. Scuba Diver Life

60. Places and how they are impacted
The biodiversity of rainforests will also suffer as
temperatures increase…
(Williams, Bolitho, and Fox, 2003)
Smith (1990)

61. Ars Technica

62. Places and how they are impacted
Golfing destinations that rely on plentiful water supplies
may be affected by a decline in rainfall…
(UNWTO-UNEPWMO, 2008)
Smith (1990)

63. Public Domain Pictures

64. Places and how they are impacted
Cultural heritage sites in Italy have been damaged by
landslides due to floodwaters, and the Chan Chan
Archaeological zone in Peru has been affected by
intense precipitation…
(Lollino & Audisio, 2006)
Smith (1990)

65. Yale Environment 360

66. Places and how they are impacted
In the Caribbean, extreme weather events could affect
the hotel infrastructures as well as tourist attractions,
while on the demand-side a change in climatic features
could lead to a shift in visitor patterns…
(Moore,2010)
Smith (1990)

67. Market Watch

68. Places and how they are impacted
Unpredictable weather further makes trip planning
difficult and may lower visitor satisfaction. If weather
conditions change or become volatile, tourists may
either shift to other destinations or simply stay home
(Pack, 2004; Perry, 2006)
Smith (1990)

69. IGN

70. Places and how they are impacted
Extremes in weather may also affect the appeal of
certain Australian destinations due to hotter
weather, more intense rainfall, but less precipitation
overall, a greater risk of fire and a greater risk of severe
cyclones…
(Tourism-Review, 2009)
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN THIS – and many more
of the less newsworthy effects…
Smith (1990)

72. Places and how they are impacted
The impacts of a
changing climate
will be felt unevenly…
Smith (1990)

73. Places and how they are impacted
There could be winners and losers in the skiing sector as
some resorts cease to operate and demand is shifted to
those that are more climate-resilient. Prices could rise…
(Scott, McBoyle, Minogue, and Mills, 2006)
Smith (1990)

74. Daily Mail

75. Places and how they are impacted
Some Mediterranean destinations may see shifts in
their peak seasons from summer to current shoulder
season…
(Amelung et al., 2007)
Smith (1990)

76. WRSD

77. Places and how they are impacted
An unusually hot summer of 1995 led to a revival of
many British seaside resorts and a subsequent
decline in overseas travel…
(Giles and Perry, 1998)
Smith (1990)

78. Daily Mail

79. Places and how they are impacted
So… The most likely scenario is that climate change will
result in a redistribution of tourists from more to less
climate-sensitive destinations…
(Scott, McBoyle, & Schwartzentruber, 2004)
…affecting:
 Destination choice (Hamilton&Lau, 2004) ;
 Vacation satisfaction (Williams, Dossa,& Hunt, 1997);
 Destination competitiveness.
Smith (1990)

80. Guardian
Climate change
challenges: Sinking city of Venice
(10 min)

81. End of Lecture
(Game Shows return next week!)