Seven Challenges of the Russian Protest Movement
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My presentation for a roundtable discussion at GWU in March 2013. For more details, see my paper of the same name in Russian Analytical Digest: http://www.css.ethz.ch/publications/DetailansichtPubDB_EN?rec_id=2462
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The document analyzes the Czech Republic's pro-Russian sentiments and whether it can truly be considered one of "Putin's friends." It finds that while the Czech President Miloš Zeman regularly voices support for Russia, the country as a whole does not fully align with the Kremlin's interests. Zeman's views stem from his communist upbringing and personality rather than strategic alignment with Russia. Most "allies" of Russia in Europe are media constructs rather than real partners, and the Czech Republic prioritizes its relationships with Western organizations over Moscow.
Lithuania and Belarus Neighboring States Comparative Study
The document compares Lithuania and Belarus' transitions from Soviet rule in the 1990s. It notes that Lithuania immediately transitioned to democracy and has remained democratic, while Belarus initially transitioned but then authoritarianism returned in the mid-1990s under President Lukashenko. Factors that influenced their paths included Lithuania's prior experience as an independent state before 1940, which gave it a head start in transitioning back to democracy, as well as Belarus' close economic ties to Russia and choice of a leader who centralized power.
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Yuriy Matsiyevsky
Presentation prepared for the Center for European Studies
University of Florida,
Gainesville, January 24, 2012
Occasional Paper 3_Kristin Alexy
This document summarizes the debate around how to define and classify hybrid regimes that hold elections but restrict civil liberties. It discusses how scholars initially viewed regimes as either democratic or authoritarian (Section 1). It then explains how Fareed Zakaria coined the term "illiberal democracies" to describe stalled transitions in the 1990s that held elections but abused civil liberties (Section 2). The document analyzes criticisms of this term from scholars like Levitsky, Collier and Way, who argue it diminishes the definition of democracy (Section 3). Lastly, it discusses how understanding hybrid regimes is important for studying modern democratic trends.
Ludger helms media and politics
This document discusses the impact of mass media on executive leadership in contemporary democracies. While political research on media issues remains limited compared to other areas, it is widely acknowledged that understanding modern politics requires considering the influence of mass media. The document notes that most research has focused on how media have increased the power of governments and chief executives, but effects on leadership have received little attention. It argues for a comparative perspective to better understand the fundamental relationship between governments, leaders, and media in established democracies.
Authoritarianism, Populism, and the GlobalRetreat of Democra.docx
This document discusses the rise of authoritarianism and decline of liberal democracy around the world in recent decades. It introduces a curated discussion on how management scholarship can contribute to understanding authoritarianism. Contributors discuss how authoritarianism has influenced corporations and how organizational theories can provide insights into authoritarian systems and the role of digital technologies in modern authoritarianism. They call for more research applying management concepts to critically examine authoritarianism and its threats to democracy.
The Origin of the non-governmental sector in Russia during the presidencies o...
Apart from the public (first) and business (second) sectors, the third sector is one
of the pillars constituting the modern democratic society. All the social interests
are concentrated within the third sector and they are being implemented by the
numerous non-governmental organizations cooperating with the state as well
as business world. The birth of the third sector in Russia can be associated with
the beginning of Mikhail Gorbachev reforms called the perestroika. The mental
changes that the Russian society underwent influenced by the policy of glasnost
led to the origin of public involvement into the social and political life, taking
upon the role of the often ineffective state. The degree to which the citizens were
involved in the activity of the NGOs was first of all associated with their quality
of life and it depended on the attitude of the decision-makers towards the idea
of social organizations. The time of Boris Yeltsin presidency was characterized
by two phenomena: a drop in the standard of living accompanied by the
intensification of criminalization within the public life and the positive attitude
towards the introduction of the third sector. After the new president assumed
the post, the approach of the new authority changed in a negative way and
the politics implemented led to gaining full control over public associations.
The so-called liberalization of the law in respect to the third sector was only
a display of Kremlin’s political will and did not signify serious treatment of the
principles of the democratic and civic society. The third sector, one of the pillars
supporting the civil society is at present in the state of consolidation, dealing
with numerous amendments of legal norms. After the period of mimicking
western solutions, the Russian NGOs became a power that must be taken into
account by the Russian decision-makers.
Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis No. 30
Swedbank Baltic Sea Analysis No. 30 - Russia: Political turbulence and significant economic pressures going forward
Elderfield 7SCORE = 94Social Media and Political Activity.docx
Elderfield 7
SCORE = 94%
Social Media and Political Activity: Considering the Implications
It is impossible to completely predict all of the different effects that one phenomenon will have on another. This is especially true when one of the phenomena in question is as deep and complex as political activity and the other as new and fluid as social media. Because the phrase “political activity” is vague and could be used to describe any number of different actions, in the context of this essay it will be defined as any action that is intended to concern both a federal or local governmental body and one or more of its citizens. The meaning of “social media” is somewhat standard, but to avoid any confusion it will be defined as any form of media that facilitates real-time communication between two or more people. Many reputable scholars have devoted a great deal of time and other resources to the study of the interaction between social media and political activity. In a recent article entitled “The Political Power of Social Media”, Clay Shirky, Professor of New Media at New York University, discusses the different effects that social media has had on national and international politics and the varying degrees of success that it has created (1-12). In examining some of the more United States-centric effects of social media on political activity, Michael McGrath, the editor of The National Civic Review, discusses the effects of social media on political participation within minority groups in an article entitled “Technology, Media, and Political Participation” (41-44). Finally, taking a more cynical approach to the interaction between social media and political activity, Evgeny Morozov, a contributing editor to Foreign Policy, takes a closer look at the role of social media in political revolutions and how authoritarian governments are adapting to the rise of social media in an article entitled “Technology’s Role in Revolution: Internet Freedom and Political Oppression” (18-21). While these three articles all look at the interaction between social media and political activity from differing perspectives, they all lead to an overlapping set of conclusions. While the core components of political activity have not been changed by the effects of social media, the scope of its occurrence has. These changes are pressuring non-democratic governments to acknowledge and respond to the opinions and wishes of their citizens more than ever before. As a result, authoritarian regimes are now adjusting their policies and actions with social media in mind.
While social media has influenced many aspects of society, at its core, political activity has remained unchanged. Clay Shirky observes that, “Just as [Martin] Luther adopted the newly practical printing press to protest against the Catholic Church, and the American Revolutionaries synchronized their beliefs using the postal service that Benjamin Franklin had designed, today’s dissident movements will use an ...
01 text illarionov_06 oct
1. The document analyzes the current political power structure in Russia, describing how the "siloviki" or people from Russia's "ministries of force" such as the FSB (successor to the KGB) now dominate political power.
2. It argues that Russia has become an "authoritarian regime shading toward dictatorship" where organized political opposition is nearly nonexistent and citizens have few political rights.
3. Real power in Russia belongs to the "Siloviki Incorporated" - a de facto corporation of current and former secret police operatives, especially from the FSB, that has spread its influence throughout the government, military, business, and media.
Ukraine’s Democratic Institutions During the War A Check-Up.pdf
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Opposition in authoritarian regimes – a case study of Russian non-systemic op...
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The Russian Opposition - Julia Pettengill, Henry Jackson Society report
The Russian Opposition - Julia Pettengill, Henry Jackson Society report
CASE Network Studies and Analyses 242 - Political Determinants of Economic Re...
CASE Network Studies and Analyses 242 - Political Determinants of Economic Re...
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CASE Network Studies and Analyses 255 - Moldova: Assessment of Civil Society ...
2015 03-11 - russia one year after crimea - event summary jm
2015 03-11 - russia one year after crimea - event summary jm
Lithuania and Belarus Neighboring States Comparative Study
Lithuania and Belarus Neighboring States Comparative Study
Why Ukraine has not succeeded in democratization under Yushchenko?
Why Ukraine has not succeeded in democratization under Yushchenko?
Authoritarianism, Populism, and the GlobalRetreat of Democra.docx
Authoritarianism, Populism, and the GlobalRetreat of Democra.docx
The Origin of the non-governmental sector in Russia during the presidencies o...
The Origin of the non-governmental sector in Russia during the presidencies o...
Elderfield 7SCORE = 94Social Media and Political Activity.docx
Elderfield 7SCORE = 94Social Media and Political Activity.docx
Ukraine’s Democratic Institutions During the War A Check-Up.pdf
Ukraine’s Democratic Institutions During the War A Check-Up.pdf
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Seven Challenges of the Russian Protest Movement
- 1. Oleg Kozlovsky Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies George Washington University
- 2. Negotiated, limited Regime change and reform, influencing the complete recreation of authorities the state Gradual change Revolutionary change Talks and seeking Open conflict, public compromise protests, maximizing pressure Moderates Radicals
- 3. Both negotiations and open conflict require a strong movement Neither strategy can be effective in the short run Window of opportunity for negotiations closed by March 2012
- 4. Split in the ruling elites, most importantly the police force and the army, is a necessary precondition for a peaceful political change Confrontation is not only emotional, but also rational Serbian and Ukrainian experience: “victims of the regime” No coherent approach to regime defectors Defectors should be judged on a case-by-case basis
- 5. Russian protest movement is remarkably non- violent Internal crisis activates violent elements of the movement Public opinion is ambivalent about political violence (see Primorye Guerillas) May 6: succumbing to a provocation harmed the movement, opened way to government crackdown
- 6. Movement was chaotic and spontaneous from the beginning Void was filled by self-appointed Organizing Committee and other similar structures Lack of legitimate leadership undermined attempts of negotiations and impeded coordination Election of Coordinating Council in October 2012 opened new page CC still has a long way to go to prove its effectiveness
- 7. Concise message vs. broad public appeal Bringing in economic and social welfare issues may be risky Scope of demands: from bicycle lanes to “Russia without Putin” Too humble demands may be as damaging as too radical It may be easier to radicalize masses than to de- marginalize a radical movement
- 8. Apathy and pessimism are major obstacles to public participation Identifying, publicizing, and celebrating even small achievements can raise morale and people’s interest in activism Preventing ungrounded euphoria and elevated expectations just as important as fighting pessimism
- 9. Moscow has been the ground zero of protests 78% of CC members are from Moscow Moscow has 12% of voters, 22% of GDP, most federal institutions If Russia voted like Moscow in 2012, there would be 2 nd round “Sorties” to Astrakhan, Gagarin, etc. had mixed results Long-term capacity building and support is required for sustainable development of civil society in “the regions”