Presentation gives and overview of risk modelling methods adopted at Aalto University in order to assess the risk of oil tankers traffic. The topic was discussed and presented during 11th Workshop of the Co-operation between the Nordic Maritime Universities and DNV, which was held at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Stockholm on 28-29 January.
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
2024 State of Marketing Report – by HubspotMarius Sescu
https://www.hubspot.com/state-of-marketing
· Scaling relationships and proving ROI
· Social media is the place for search, sales, and service
· Authentic influencer partnerships fuel brand growth
· The strongest connections happen via call, click, chat, and camera.
· Time saved with AI leads to more creative work
· Seeking: A single source of truth
· TLDR; Get on social, try AI, and align your systems.
· More human marketing, powered by robots
ChatGPT is a revolutionary addition to the world since its introduction in 2022. A big shift in the sector of information gathering and processing happened because of this chatbot. What is the story of ChatGPT? How is the bot responding to prompts and generating contents? Swipe through these slides prepared by Expeed Software, a web development company regarding the development and technical intricacies of ChatGPT!
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsPixeldarts
The realm of product design is a constantly changing environment where technology and style intersect. Every year introduces fresh challenges and exciting trends that mold the future of this captivating art form. In this piece, we delve into the significant trends set to influence the look and functionality of product design in the year 2024.
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthThinkNow
Mental health has been in the news quite a bit lately. Dozens of U.S. states are currently suing Meta for contributing to the youth mental health crisis by inserting addictive features into their products, while the U.S. Surgeon General is touring the nation to bring awareness to the growing epidemic of loneliness and isolation. The country has endured periods of low national morale, such as in the 1970s when high inflation and the energy crisis worsened public sentiment following the Vietnam War. The current mood, however, feels different. Gallup recently reported that national mental health is at an all-time low, with few bright spots to lift spirits.
To better understand how Americans are feeling and their attitudes towards mental health in general, ThinkNow conducted a nationally representative quantitative survey of 1,500 respondents and found some interesting differences among ethnic, age and gender groups.
Technology
For example, 52% agree that technology and social media have a negative impact on mental health, but when broken out by race, 61% of Whites felt technology had a negative effect, and only 48% of Hispanics thought it did.
While technology has helped us keep in touch with friends and family in faraway places, it appears to have degraded our ability to connect in person. Staying connected online is a double-edged sword since the same news feed that brings us pictures of the grandkids and fluffy kittens also feeds us news about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, the dysfunction in Washington, the latest mass shooting and the climate crisis.
Hispanics may have a built-in defense against the isolation technology breeds, owing to their large, multigenerational households, strong social support systems, and tendency to use social media to stay connected with relatives abroad.
Age and Gender
When asked how individuals rate their mental health, men rate it higher than women by 11 percentage points, and Baby Boomers rank it highest at 83%, saying it’s good or excellent vs. 57% of Gen Z saying the same.
Gen Z spends the most amount of time on social media, so the notion that social media negatively affects mental health appears to be correlated. Unfortunately, Gen Z is also the generation that’s least comfortable discussing mental health concerns with healthcare professionals. Only 40% of them state they’re comfortable discussing their issues with a professional compared to 60% of Millennials and 65% of Boomers.
Race Affects Attitudes
As seen in previous research conducted by ThinkNow, Asian Americans lag other groups when it comes to awareness of mental health issues. Twenty-four percent of Asian Americans believe that having a mental health issue is a sign of weakness compared to the 16% average for all groups. Asians are also considerably less likely to be aware of mental health services in their communities (42% vs. 55%) and most likely to seek out information on social media (51% vs. 35%).
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfmarketingartwork
This article is all about what AI trends will emerge in the field of creative operations in 2024. All the marketers and brand builders should be aware of these trends for their further use and save themselves some time!
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
During this webinar, Anand Bagmar demonstrates how AI tools such as ChatGPT can be applied to various stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) using an eCommerce application case study. Find the on-demand recording and more info at https://applitools.info/b59
Key takeaways:
• Learn how to use ChatGPT to add AI power to your testing and test automation
• Understand the limitations of the technology and where human expertise is crucial
• Gain insight into different AI-based tools
• Adopt AI-based tools to stay relevant and optimize work for developers and testers
* ChatGPT and OpenAI belong to OpenAI, L.L.C.
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
This session highlights best practices and lessons learned for U.S. Bike Route System designation, as well as how and why these routes should be integrated into bicycle planning at the local and regional level.
Presenters:
Presenter: Kevin Luecke Toole Design Group
Co-Presenter: Virginia Sullivan Adventure Cycling Association
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...DevGAMM Conference
Has your project been caught in a storm of deadlines, clashing requirements, and the need to change course halfway through? If yes, then check out how the administration team navigated through all of this, relocating 160 people from 3 countries and opening 2 offices during the most turbulent time in the last 20 years. Belka Games’ Chief Administrative Officer, Katerina Rudko, will share universal approaches and life hacks that can help your project survive unstable periods when there seem to be too many tasks and a lack of time and people.
A report by thenetworkone and Kurio.
The contributing experts and agencies are (in an alphabetical order): Sylwia Rytel, Social Media Supervisor, 180heartbeats + JUNG v MATT (PL), Sharlene Jenner, Vice President - Director of Engagement Strategy, Abelson Taylor (USA), Alex Casanovas, Digital Director, Atrevia (ES), Dora Beilin, Senior Social Strategist, Barrett Hoffher (USA), Min Seo, Campaign Director, Brand New Agency (KR), Deshé M. Gully, Associate Strategist, Day One Agency (USA), Francesca Trevisan, Strategist, Different (IT), Trevor Crossman, CX and Digital Transformation Director; Olivia Hussey, Strategic Planner; Simi Srinarula, Social Media Manager, The Hallway (AUS), James Hebbert, Managing Director, Hylink (CN / UK), Mundy Álvarez, Planning Director; Pedro Rojas, Social Media Manager; Pancho González, CCO, Inbrax (CH), Oana Oprea, Head of Digital Planning, Jam Session Agency (RO), Amy Bottrill, Social Account Director, Launch (UK), Gaby Arriaga, Founder, Leonardo1452 (MX), Shantesh S Row, Creative Director, Liwa (UAE), Rajesh Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer; Dhruv Gaur, Digital Planning Lead; Leonie Mergulhao, Account Supervisor - Social Media & PR, Medulla (IN), Aurelija Plioplytė, Head of Digital & Social, Not Perfect (LI), Daiana Khaidargaliyeva, Account Manager, Osaka Labs (UK / USA), Stefanie Söhnchen, Vice President Digital, PIABO Communications (DE), Elisabeth Winiartati, Managing Consultant, Head of Global Integrated Communications; Lydia Aprina, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Nita Prabowo, Account Manager, Integrated Marketing and Communications; Okhi, Web Developer, PNTR Group (ID), Kei Obusan, Insights Director; Daffi Ranandi, Insights Manager, Radarr (SG), Gautam Reghunath, Co-founder & CEO, Talented (IN), Donagh Humphreys, Head of Social and Digital Innovation, THINKHOUSE (IRE), Sarah Yim, Strategy Director, Zulu Alpha Kilo (CA).
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Search Engine Journal
The search marketing landscape is evolving rapidly with new technologies, and professionals, like you, rely on innovative paid search strategies to meet changing demands.
It’s important that you’re ready to implement new strategies in 2024.
Check this out and learn the top trends in paid search advertising that are expected to gain traction, so you can drive higher ROI more efficiently in 2024.
You’ll learn:
- The latest trends in AI and automation, and what this means for an evolving paid search ecosystem.
- New developments in privacy and data regulation.
- Emerging ad formats that are expected to make an impact next year.
Watch Sreekant Lanka from iQuanti and Irina Klein from OneMain Financial as they dive into the future of paid search and explore the trends, strategies, and technologies that will shape the search marketing landscape.
If you’re looking to assess your paid search strategy and design an industry-aligned plan for 2024, then this webinar is for you.
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summarySpeakerHub
From their humble beginnings in 1984, TED has grown into the world’s most powerful amplifier for speakers and thought-leaders to share their ideas. They have over 2,400 filmed talks (not including the 30,000+ TEDx videos) freely available online, and have hosted over 17,500 events around the world.
With over one billion views in a year, it’s no wonder that so many speakers are looking to TED for ideas on how to share their message more effectively.
The article “5 Public-Speaking Tips TED Gives Its Speakers”, by Carmine Gallo for Forbes, gives speakers five practical ways to connect with their audience, and effectively share their ideas on stage.
Whether you are gearing up to get on a TED stage yourself, or just want to master the skills that so many of their speakers possess, these tips and quotes from Chris Anderson, the TED Talks Curator, will encourage you to make the most impactful impression on your audience.
See the full article and more summaries like this on SpeakerHub here: https://speakerhub.com/blog/5-presentation-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers
See the original article on Forbes here:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/welcome/?toURL=http://www.forbes.com/sites/carminegallo/2016/05/06/5-public-speaking-tips-ted-gives-its-speakers/&refURL=&referrer=#5c07a8221d9b
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd Clark Boyd
Everyone is in agreement that ChatGPT (and other generative AI tools) will shape the future of work. Yet there is little consensus on exactly how, when, and to what extent this technology will change our world.
Businesses that extract maximum value from ChatGPT will use it as a collaborative tool for everything from brainstorming to technical maintenance.
For individuals, now is the time to pinpoint the skills the future professional will need to thrive in the AI age.
Check out this presentation to understand what ChatGPT is, how it will shape the future of work, and how you can prepare to take advantage.
A brief introduction to DataScience with explaining of the concepts, algorithms, machine learning, supervised and unsupervised learning, clustering, statistics, data preprocessing, real-world applications etc.
It's part of a Data Science Corner Campaign where I will be discussing the fundamentals of DataScience, AIML, Statistics etc.
Time Management & Productivity - Best PracticesVit Horky
Here's my presentation on by proven best practices how to manage your work time effectively and how to improve your productivity. It includes practical tips and how to use tools such as Slack, Google Apps, Hubspot, Google Calendar, Gmail and others.
The six step guide to practical project managementMindGenius
The six step guide to practical project management
If you think managing projects is too difficult, think again.
We’ve stripped back project management processes to the
basics – to make it quicker and easier, without sacrificing
the vital ingredients for success.
“If you’re looking for some real-world guidance, then The Six Step Guide to Practical Project Management will help.”
Dr Andrew Makar, Tactical Project Management
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Applitools
During this webinar, Anand Bagmar demonstrates how AI tools such as ChatGPT can be applied to various stages of the software development life cycle (SDLC) using an eCommerce application case study. Find the on-demand recording and more info at https://applitools.info/b59
Key takeaways:
• Learn how to use ChatGPT to add AI power to your testing and test automation
• Understand the limitations of the technology and where human expertise is crucial
• Gain insight into different AI-based tools
• Adopt AI-based tools to stay relevant and optimize work for developers and testers
* ChatGPT and OpenAI belong to OpenAI, L.L.C.
More than Just Lines on a Map: Best Practices for U.S Bike Routes
This session highlights best practices and lessons learned for U.S. Bike Route System designation, as well as how and why these routes should be integrated into bicycle planning at the local and regional level.
Presenters:
Presenter: Kevin Luecke Toole Design Group
Co-Presenter: Virginia Sullivan Adventure Cycling Association
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...DevGAMM Conference
Has your project been caught in a storm of deadlines, clashing requirements, and the need to change course halfway through? If yes, then check out how the administration team navigated through all of this, relocating 160 people from 3 countries and opening 2 offices during the most turbulent time in the last 20 years. Belka Games’ Chief Administrative Officer, Katerina Rudko, will share universal approaches and life hacks that can help your project survive unstable periods when there seem to be too many tasks and a lack of time and people.
Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Selected Problems Of Marine Traffic Risk Modelling
1. Selected problems of
maritime traffic risk modelling
Pentti Kujala, Professor
Jakub Montewka, Ph.D., Chief Mate
Aalto University, Finland
Przemysław Krata, Ph.D.
Maritime University of Gdynia, Poland
Stockholm, 28-29 January 2010
2. Agenda
Risk modelling - outline
Probability of an accident
Consequences
A case study
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
3. Risk modelling outline
P C R
P – accident‟s probability
C – accident‟s consequences
R – risk
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
4. Risk modelling outline
Accident Accident
RISK
probability consequences
• Ship-ship • Oil spill from tanker • Monetary terms
collision • Bunker spill from • Human loss
• Ship – fixed vessel • Environmental loss
object collision • Structural damage
• Grounding • Capsizing of vessel
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
5. Accident‟s probability assessment
Ship-ship collision Ship-fixed object Grounding models
models collision models
Fujii, Macduff, Fujii, Macduff,
1974 Gluver&Olsen „98 1974
Kite – Powell,
Pedersen, 1995 U. Kunz, 1998 1999
MDTC based
M. Knott, 1998 Fowler, 2000
model, 2010
Z. Prucz, 1998 Quy, 2007
Gravity model,
2010
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
6. Collision probability assessment – MDTC based model
Figure
The relationships between
MDTC, safe passing
distance, and collision
Figure
Representation of vessels
as discs and definition of
collision situation.
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
7. Collision probability assessment – MDTC based model
MDTC (LOA)
Tanker_Tanker
5 Tankers_cd
Tanker_Pass
Tanker_Pass_cd
4 Pass_Cont
Pass_Cont_cd
Cont_diff
3 Cont_diff_cd
MDTC (LOA)
RoRo_RoRo 6
RoRo_cd
2 Cont_Cont
Cont_cd 5
Tankers_diff
1
Tankers_diff_cd 4
Pass_Pass
0 Pass_Pass_cd
3
10 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 170
Angle of intersection (deg) 2
Figure 1
Values of MDTC obtained for all meeting scenarios,
with corresponding values of collision diameters. 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Angle of intersection (deg)
1_port_2_stb Both_to_port CD
Figure
MDTC and CD’s values computed at 95%
confidence level by use of Monte Carlo simulations.
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
9. Grounding probability assessment – gravity model
The field of characteristics of ships location:
S S (T( j ,i ) , R, d ( R,e,m) )
T - maximum draught of a ship,
R - turning circle radius,
d - coefficient of the effective distance of obstruction detecting
e - coefficient describing a technical equipment of a ship,
m - coefficient of ship‟s manoeuvrability,
j, i - denotes coordinates of ship.
The field of characteristics of the obstructions:
P P( H ( j ',i ') , b( j ',i ') , s( j ',i ') , c( j ',i ') )
H - water depth,
s - coefficient of soundings accuracy,
b - coefficient of ship‟s hull destruction when contacted with the seabed,
c - coefficient of soundings position accuracy.
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
10. Grounding probability assessment – gravity model
The grounding threat intensity at any arbitrarily chosen point of the space
containing any number of sources of a threat (eg.: shallows) can be obtained as
a vector sum of grounding threat intensities coming from every single obstruction
according to the formula:
np
E ( j, i) Ek
k 1
Ē(j,i) - is a grounding threat intensity field in the point (j, i),
Ē k - is a grounding threat intensity vector generated by k-numbered obstruction,
np - is a number of obstructions located in considered area.
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
11. Grounding probability assessment – gravity model
A spatial distribution of values of the grounding threat intensity vectors.
A shape of a safety contour (blue) depends on the assumption regarding the acceptable value of
the grounding threat intensity vectors in the closest point of shallow approach.
The critical value adjustment was performed on the basis of a minimum under keel clearance
(UKC) requirement.
Blue means safety Centre of fairway
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
12. Accident‟s consequences assessment
Quantity of oil spill Cost of oil spill Structural damage Ship capsizing
IMO methodology
Munif et al.
MEPC 117(52) 2004 Etkin, 2000 Pedersen, 1994
2005
MEPC 110(49) 2003
Skjong et al. 2005 Bulian et al.
Smailys & Česnauskis, Brown, 2002
2009
2006 in SAFEDOR
project
In house build model Zhang, Hinz, 2010
based on the two
above mentioned,
2009 Yasuhira, 2009
In house build
model, based on
Zhang‟s approach
and AIS data2010
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
13. Accident‟s consequences assessment
Size of an oil outflow due to collision and grounding considering there is a spill as
a function of cargo deadweight as calculated by IMO probabilistic methodology for
double hull tankers only.
Collision
Grounding
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
14. Accident‟s consequences assessment
Accident‟al oil outflow model for double hull tankers in the Gulf of Finland
Number of ships
Monthly tanker traffic profiles
Length (m)
350
600
300
500
250
400 200
300 150
200 100
100 50
0 0
Gas Crude oil Oil products Chemical mode max min
Tanker Gas Crude oil Oil products Chemical
Winter Summer
DWT (tons)
Tanker's DWT as a function of her length
180000
160000
140000
120000 y = 0,0015x3,3008
2
R = 0,9577
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290
Length (m)
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
15. Accident‟s consequences assessment
Accident‟al oil outflow model for double hull tankers in the Gulf of Finland
X > 21125
Pareto2(9009.10; 1.90) Shift=+3.04 X > 34485 Pareto2(49459; 8.4) Shift=-3.16
5.0%
5.0%
Probability
2,0E-04
Probability
1,5E-04
1,5E-04
1,0E-04
1,0E-04
5,0E-05
5,0E-05
0,0E+00 0,0E+00
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Spill size [t] Spill size [t]
The probability of an oil spill from the tankers operating in the Gulf of Finland in case of collision,
estimated by Pareto2 distributions for summer (to left) and winter traffic (to right).
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
16. A case study
Block diagram of risk assessment process applied in the study.
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
17. A case study
1. Helsinki-Tallinn crossing for summer and winter traffic.
2. Approach to oil terminal in Sköldvik
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
18. A case study
Cumulative density functions of risk due to tankers collisions in the Helsinki-
Tallinn crossing for summer and winter traffic.
X <0.43
Lognorm(123682; 246804) Shift=-1123.4 X > 444368
95% 5.0%
Probability
1
Probability
1
Mean = 122559
0,8 Summer 0,8
Mean=0.19
0,6 0,6
Winter
0,4 Mean=0.14 0,4
0,2 0,2
0 0
0 0,25 0,5 0,75 1 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
RISK [USD*Million] RISK [USD*Millions]
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
19. A case study
The safety contours of the analyzed fairway to Sköldvik (red and green curves)
and the fairway centre line (black straight line).
60,15
Latitude [deg N]
60,14
Histograms of tankers' lateral distribution on fairway
60,13 leading to Sköldvig
Probability
0,0020
60,12
0,0015
60,11
0,0010
60,1
60,09 0,0005
60,08 0,0000
-750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250
60,07 Distance from waterway center [m]
S_bound N_bound
60,06
25,5 25,52 25,54 25,56 25,58 25,6 25,62
Longitude [deg E]
Two histograms of tankers‟ lateral distribution on the fairway to
Sköldvig, red line represents north bound traffic whereas black
line is south bound traffic
The safety contours
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
20. A case study
Probability and cumulative density functions of variable “risk” in case of grounding in
the Sköldvik harbour approach, summer traffic.
Lognorm(123682; 246804) Shift=-1123.4 X > 444368 Lognorm(123682; 246804) Shift=-1123.4 X > 444368
5,0% 5.0%
Probability
Probability
1,2E-05 1
Mean = 122559
1,0E-05
Mean = 122559 0,8
8,0E-06
0,6
6,0E-06
0,4
4,0E-06
2,0E-06 0,2
0,0E+00 0
0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
RISK [USD*Millions] RISK [USD*Millions]
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
21. Thank you for your attention
Selected problems of maritime traffic risk modelling
22. Selected problems of
maritime traffic risk modelling
Pentti Kujala, Professor
Jakub Montewka, Ph.D., Chief Mate
Aalto University, Finland
Przemysław Krata, Ph.D.
Maritime University of Gdynia, Poland
Stockholm, 28-29 January 2010