Using Tweets for Understanding Public Opinion During U.S. Primaries and Predi...Monica Powell
Abstract
Using social media for political analysis, especially during elections, has become popular in the past few years where many researchers and media now use social media to understand the public opinion and current trends. In this paper, we investigate methods for using Twitter to analyze public opinion and to predict U.S. Presidential Primary Election results. We analyzed over 13 million tweets from February 2016 to April 2016 during the primary elections, and we looked at tweets that mentioned either Hillary Clin- ton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. First, we use the methods of sentiment analysis, geospatial analysis, net- work analysis, and visualizations tools to examine public opinion on twitter. We then use the twitter data and analysis results to propose a prediction model for predicting primary election results. Our results highlight the feasibility of using social media to look at public opinion and predict election results.
Using Tweets for Understanding Public Opinion During U.S. Primaries and Predi...Monica Powell
Abstract
Using social media for political analysis, especially during elections, has become popular in the past few years where many researchers and media now use social media to understand the public opinion and current trends. In this paper, we investigate methods for using Twitter to analyze public opinion and to predict U.S. Presidential Primary Election results. We analyzed over 13 million tweets from February 2016 to April 2016 during the primary elections, and we looked at tweets that mentioned either Hillary Clin- ton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. First, we use the methods of sentiment analysis, geospatial analysis, net- work analysis, and visualizations tools to examine public opinion on twitter. We then use the twitter data and analysis results to propose a prediction model for predicting primary election results. Our results highlight the feasibility of using social media to look at public opinion and predict election results.
POSITIONING OF THE NEW MEANS OF COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION: EMPIRICAL STUD...IAEME Publication
The social networks occupy a major place in the new technologies of information and communication. Beyond their weight ceaselessly increasing in the society, they became strategic supports as well for the individuals as for the organizations. With the social networks, a real revolution upsets in a radical way the ecosystem of the media and of the communication in our societies. Internet and the social media have individualized and democratized the access to real time diffusable contents in the global scale. Today, the consumers of information are also producers of information and can enter in competition with the traditional editors and broadcasting stations, the brands, the public authorities.
How does fakenews spread understanding pathways of disinformation spread thro...Araz Taeihagh
What are the pathways for spreading disinformation on social media platforms? This article addresses this question by collecting, categorising, and situating an extensive body of research on how application programming interfaces (APIs) provided by social media platforms facilitate the spread of disinformation. We first examine the landscape of official social media APIs, then perform quantitative research on the open-source code repositories GitHub and GitLab to understand the usage patterns of these APIs. By inspecting the code repositories, we classify developers' usage of the APIs as official and unofficial, and further develop a four-stage framework characterising pathways for spreading disinformation on social media platforms. We further highlight how the stages in the framework were activated during the 2016 US Presidential Elections, before providing policy recommendations for issues relating to access to APIs, algorithmic content, advertisements, and suggest rapid response to coordinate campaigns, development of collaborative, and participatory approaches as well as government stewardship in the regulation of social media platforms.
Journalists today are faced with an overwhelming abundance of data – from large collections of leaked documents, to public databases about lobbying or government spending, to ‘big data’ from social networks such as Twitter and Facebook. To stay relevant to society journalists are learning to process this data and separate signal from noise in order to provide valuable insights to their readers. This talk will address questions like: What is the potential of data journalism? Why is it relevant to society? And how can you get started?
paper to be presented at Netdem Conference, Cluj-Napoca, 25-27 June 2010, netdem.info
The new media have changed the political scene dramatically. Thus, in the case of certain states such as the USA, Iran or Moldova, microblogging - especially through the platform Twitter - proved an efficient communication tool. But what was the case of Romania, considering that, at the end of 2009, presidential elections were held here?
The aim of our paper is to share an analysis carried out by the authors which explores whether communication in 140 characters has had an/any influence on the Romanian presidential elections. The paper was facilitated by the online project Elections in 140 characters developed on the microblogging platform Cirip.eu, by creating at the start of the campaign a group dedicated to the presidential elections. Hence, on 22 October 2009, the group Prezidentiale (http://cirip.ro/grup/prezidentiale) became active (and it was open until the end of the elections, in mid December). Messages on this topic were sent in this group, and were also imported both from Twitter and from blogs, all of them reflecting the interaction/debate on the elections, between Romanian Internet users.
However, the authors believe that if microblogging is used effectively it has the potential to do more than facilitate interaction between users (or users and candidates). More precisely, we consider it can influence electoral campaigns in a new and innovative way.
Chung-Jui LAI - Polarization of Political Opinion by News MediaREVULN
In 2016 US election, social media played a vital role in shaping public opinions as expressed by the news media that have created the phenomenon of polarization in the United States. Because social media gave people the ability to follow, share, post, comment below everything, the phenomenon of political opinions being spread easily and quickly on social media by the news agencies is bringing out a significantly polarized populace.
Consequently, it’s very important to understand the language differences on Twitter and figure out how propaganda spread by different political parties that influence or perhaps mislead public opinion. This talk will introduce the relationship among the social media, public opinion, and news media, then suggests the method to collect the tweets from Twitter and conduct sentimental and logistic regression analysis on them. Furthermore, this talk points out the special aspect on the relationship between the polarization and the topic of this conference (fake news, disinformation and propaganda).
Main points:
- situation in Taiwan
- research on fake news
- methods for fighting fake news
Anatoliy Gruzd and Philip Mai
Workshop presented at the TTRA Annual International Conference in Quebec City (June 20, 2017)
https://2017ttraannualinternationalconfe.sched.com/event/9yCg/social-listening-how-to-do-it-and-how-to-use-it-veille-sociale-comment-faire-et-comment-lutiliser?iframe=no&w=100%&sidebar=no&bg=no
The growth of social media and the rapid adoption of internet-enabled mobile devices have changed the way Americans engage in the political process.
For Social Media Week 2013 in Washington, D.C., Pew Internet Researcher Aaron Smith presented the latest data from Pew Research Center national surveys to engage the politically savvy and tech-obsessed peole in DC who have noticed this shift in political life, taking a look at the raw data behind the new political process, and how it relates to our political infrastructure.
Doing Social and Political Research in a Digital Age: An Introduction to Digi...Liliana Bounegru
Lecture given at the National Center of Competence in Research: Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century, 5 November 2015, Zürich University, Zürich, Switzerland
Digital Trace Data for Demographic ResearchIngmar Weber
Lecture given as part of the BIGSSS 2019 summer school on migration (https://bigsss-css.jacobs-university.de/migration2019/migration/). See https://ingmarweber.de/publications/ for related publications. Mostly joint work with Emilio Zagheni.
Data on Polarization, Peace, and PropagandaIngmar Weber
Slide deck used during a presentation at STI Forum side event on "Innovating for Peace", hosted by the UN missions of Turkey and Qatar, as well as UN DPPA. More about the STI Forum at https://www.un.org/ecosoc/en/events/2021/multi-stakeholder-forum-science-technology-and-innovation-sustainable-development-goals. The presentation features work by QCRI scientists, including Muhammad Imran and Preslav Nakov, and many others. See the last slide for references.
Social Networking And Hiv Aids Communications 01pete cranston
Presentation at the IAMCR conference on Social Networking and AIDS Communications by Pete Cranston. Commissioned by Communications and Social Change Consortium (www.cfsc.org) for AIDS2031 (www.aids2031.org)
POSITIONING OF THE NEW MEANS OF COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION: EMPIRICAL STUD...IAEME Publication
The social networks occupy a major place in the new technologies of information and communication. Beyond their weight ceaselessly increasing in the society, they became strategic supports as well for the individuals as for the organizations. With the social networks, a real revolution upsets in a radical way the ecosystem of the media and of the communication in our societies. Internet and the social media have individualized and democratized the access to real time diffusable contents in the global scale. Today, the consumers of information are also producers of information and can enter in competition with the traditional editors and broadcasting stations, the brands, the public authorities.
How does fakenews spread understanding pathways of disinformation spread thro...Araz Taeihagh
What are the pathways for spreading disinformation on social media platforms? This article addresses this question by collecting, categorising, and situating an extensive body of research on how application programming interfaces (APIs) provided by social media platforms facilitate the spread of disinformation. We first examine the landscape of official social media APIs, then perform quantitative research on the open-source code repositories GitHub and GitLab to understand the usage patterns of these APIs. By inspecting the code repositories, we classify developers' usage of the APIs as official and unofficial, and further develop a four-stage framework characterising pathways for spreading disinformation on social media platforms. We further highlight how the stages in the framework were activated during the 2016 US Presidential Elections, before providing policy recommendations for issues relating to access to APIs, algorithmic content, advertisements, and suggest rapid response to coordinate campaigns, development of collaborative, and participatory approaches as well as government stewardship in the regulation of social media platforms.
Journalists today are faced with an overwhelming abundance of data – from large collections of leaked documents, to public databases about lobbying or government spending, to ‘big data’ from social networks such as Twitter and Facebook. To stay relevant to society journalists are learning to process this data and separate signal from noise in order to provide valuable insights to their readers. This talk will address questions like: What is the potential of data journalism? Why is it relevant to society? And how can you get started?
paper to be presented at Netdem Conference, Cluj-Napoca, 25-27 June 2010, netdem.info
The new media have changed the political scene dramatically. Thus, in the case of certain states such as the USA, Iran or Moldova, microblogging - especially through the platform Twitter - proved an efficient communication tool. But what was the case of Romania, considering that, at the end of 2009, presidential elections were held here?
The aim of our paper is to share an analysis carried out by the authors which explores whether communication in 140 characters has had an/any influence on the Romanian presidential elections. The paper was facilitated by the online project Elections in 140 characters developed on the microblogging platform Cirip.eu, by creating at the start of the campaign a group dedicated to the presidential elections. Hence, on 22 October 2009, the group Prezidentiale (http://cirip.ro/grup/prezidentiale) became active (and it was open until the end of the elections, in mid December). Messages on this topic were sent in this group, and were also imported both from Twitter and from blogs, all of them reflecting the interaction/debate on the elections, between Romanian Internet users.
However, the authors believe that if microblogging is used effectively it has the potential to do more than facilitate interaction between users (or users and candidates). More precisely, we consider it can influence electoral campaigns in a new and innovative way.
Chung-Jui LAI - Polarization of Political Opinion by News MediaREVULN
In 2016 US election, social media played a vital role in shaping public opinions as expressed by the news media that have created the phenomenon of polarization in the United States. Because social media gave people the ability to follow, share, post, comment below everything, the phenomenon of political opinions being spread easily and quickly on social media by the news agencies is bringing out a significantly polarized populace.
Consequently, it’s very important to understand the language differences on Twitter and figure out how propaganda spread by different political parties that influence or perhaps mislead public opinion. This talk will introduce the relationship among the social media, public opinion, and news media, then suggests the method to collect the tweets from Twitter and conduct sentimental and logistic regression analysis on them. Furthermore, this talk points out the special aspect on the relationship between the polarization and the topic of this conference (fake news, disinformation and propaganda).
Main points:
- situation in Taiwan
- research on fake news
- methods for fighting fake news
Anatoliy Gruzd and Philip Mai
Workshop presented at the TTRA Annual International Conference in Quebec City (June 20, 2017)
https://2017ttraannualinternationalconfe.sched.com/event/9yCg/social-listening-how-to-do-it-and-how-to-use-it-veille-sociale-comment-faire-et-comment-lutiliser?iframe=no&w=100%&sidebar=no&bg=no
The growth of social media and the rapid adoption of internet-enabled mobile devices have changed the way Americans engage in the political process.
For Social Media Week 2013 in Washington, D.C., Pew Internet Researcher Aaron Smith presented the latest data from Pew Research Center national surveys to engage the politically savvy and tech-obsessed peole in DC who have noticed this shift in political life, taking a look at the raw data behind the new political process, and how it relates to our political infrastructure.
Doing Social and Political Research in a Digital Age: An Introduction to Digi...Liliana Bounegru
Lecture given at the National Center of Competence in Research: Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century, 5 November 2015, Zürich University, Zürich, Switzerland
Digital Trace Data for Demographic ResearchIngmar Weber
Lecture given as part of the BIGSSS 2019 summer school on migration (https://bigsss-css.jacobs-university.de/migration2019/migration/). See https://ingmarweber.de/publications/ for related publications. Mostly joint work with Emilio Zagheni.
Data on Polarization, Peace, and PropagandaIngmar Weber
Slide deck used during a presentation at STI Forum side event on "Innovating for Peace", hosted by the UN missions of Turkey and Qatar, as well as UN DPPA. More about the STI Forum at https://www.un.org/ecosoc/en/events/2021/multi-stakeholder-forum-science-technology-and-innovation-sustainable-development-goals. The presentation features work by QCRI scientists, including Muhammad Imran and Preslav Nakov, and many others. See the last slide for references.
Social Networking And Hiv Aids Communications 01pete cranston
Presentation at the IAMCR conference on Social Networking and AIDS Communications by Pete Cranston. Commissioned by Communications and Social Change Consortium (www.cfsc.org) for AIDS2031 (www.aids2031.org)
GlobalWebIndex Social presenta su último reporte del año (2014) en materia de Social Media. Datos de crecimiento de redes, uso, recurrencia y audiencias por país.
Social networking sites (SNSs) such as Facebook, Twitter and Google+ have attracted millions of users, many of whom have integrated those sites into their daily practices. As of this writing, there are hundreds of SNSs, with various technological affordances, supporting a wide range of interests and practices
3 factors driving the $50 billion youth mobile messenger market.
Snapchat, Kik, Line, Whatsapp, Facebook messenger, WeChat, YikYak... these mobile messenger apps are now replacing "traditional" social media, and fast becoming the de-facto mobile experience for Gen Y Millennials and Gen Z.
What's driving the growth? How important is privacy in the appeal of mobile messenger apps? How are youth using mobile messenger apps within their social networks?
This is report for a study about social media behaviour by Canadian advertising agency People from Cossette.
The goal of the research is to transcend trends and hype, avoid the brands and buzz of the moment, and focus on behaviour.
The research covered Canada, the US and the UK.
Understanding Emerging Social Media Platforms in Qatar (Full report, Spring 2...Damian Radcliffe
This report demonstrates the central role social media plays in the lives of many Internet users in Qatar. It explores not only which social media platforms people use, but also how and why they use them. The platforms examined in this investigative exercise are a mix of older and more established platforms like Facebook and Twitter as well as new emerging applications such as Instagram, Snapchat, WhatsApp and Path.
Originally published at: http://www.motc.gov.qa/sites/default/files/understanding_emerging_social_media_platforms_in_qatar.pdf
Following Uncle Sam: National Social Media MarketingLiam Dowd
Best practice report on the uptake
and integration of social media
Conclusions drawn from over 300 surveyed
USM community members – comparing Europe
to that of their North America counterparts.
23 page briefing on social media uptake both sides of the pondharry-rollason
A a new briefing we have just put together here at USM that delves in and compares the level of social media integration for big brands both sides of the Atlantic. It features insights, answers and conclusions drawn from over 300 surveyed USM community members.
Social Media and Mobile Internet Use Among Teens And Young AdultsJulius Trujillo
These surveys of teens and adults reveal a decline in blogging among teens and young adults and a modest rise among adults 30 and older. Although 12-17 teens do not use Twitter in large numbers, high school-aged girls show the greatest enthusiasm for the application.
Find out how today’s teens and twentysomethings are reshaping the USA at: www.pewresearch.org/millennial
Similar to TR-Social Network Users by YUSUF ZIYA ziya@selasturkiye.com SELAS OMNIBUS INTRO & SAMPLES (20)
Social Media and Mobile Internet Use Among Teens And Young Adults
TR-Social Network Users by YUSUF ZIYA ziya@selasturkiye.com SELAS OMNIBUS INTRO & SAMPLES
1. TR -SOCIAL NETWORK USERS OMNIBUS AGES of SOCIAL NETWORK USERS–SAMPLE STUDYby RP XING Friend Feed
2. TURKEY-SOCIAL NETWORK USERS – OMNIBUS STUDY SOCIAL NETWORK USERS OMNIBUS in MAY 2010 TURKEY-SOCIAL NETWORK USERS – OMNIBUS STUDY What is an Omnibus Study? An omnibus survey is a quantitative survey - in other words it is concerned with interviewing a large and representative sample of people, with a view to extrapolating the results to represent the whole population. It allows clients to share the costs of research by pooling questions. All the questions for a given wave are then put to a representative sample, as part of a single questionnaire. Each individual client's questions are of course confidential, and results are processed in such a way as to ensure that each party only sees their own data. An omnibus survey is conducted to a set timetable, and takes place regularly throughout the year - typically on a weekly or monthly basis. And like many other large-scale market research surveys, the fieldwork is often conducted either face-to-face in a respondent's home, or on the telephone. The advantages to the research client include cost savings (because the sampling and screening costs are shared across multiple clients) and timeliness (because omnibus samples are large and interviewing is ongoing). ( * ) It is a cost-effective means of researching several subjects at the same time WE WILL START (FIRST)
3. TURKEY-SOCIAL NETWORK USERS – OMNIBUS STUDY SOCIAL NETWORK USERS OMNIBUS in MAY 2010 Title: SELAS TURKIYE –TURKEY SOCIAL NETWORK USERS Omnibus Survey, Internet Access Module, May 2010 Subject Categories: Information technology - Media, communication and language SELAS TURKIYE –TURKEY SOCIAL NETWORK USERS Omnibus Survey - Major studies Social attitudes and behaviour - Society and culture Depositor(s): TUIK The Omnibus is used for a number of purposes, for example: · to provide quick answers to questions of immediate interest · to provide information on topics that do not require a full survey · to develop and pilot questions for other surveys · to sift for subgroups that can be followed up in another survey Coverage: Dates of Fieldwork: 6 May-31 May2010 Country: TURKEY Spatial Units: Standard Regions Observation Units: Individuals; Families/households UNIVERSE SAMPLED Location of Units of Observation: National Population: Adults, aged 15 or over, living in private households in TURKEY
4. TURKEY-SOCIAL NETWORK USERS – OMNIBUS STUDY SOCIAL NETWORK USERS OMNIBUS in MAY 2010 METHODOLOGY Time Dimensions: Repeated cross-sectional study four cycles per year. Sampling Procedures: Multi-stage stratified random sample Number of Units: 1,200 (obtained) – MAY 2010 Method of Data Collection: Face-to-face interview Weighting: Weighting used. See documentation for details. Language(s) of Written Materials: Study Description: TURKISH (OP. ENGLISH) Study Documentation: TURKISH (OP. ENGLISH) For FURTHER DETAILS ….BUDGET, TIME PLAN, etc. PLEASE CONTACT YUSUF ZIYA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR of SELAS TURKIYE [email_address] Tel: +90 (216) 517 12 89 (Pbx) www.selasturkiye.com www.selas.biz www.anketdoldur.com www.anketonline.net
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7. Here below you can examine the age distribution for each of the 19 social network sites RP included in this study. The list has been sorted by the average user age per site (see further down for that), AGE DISTRIBUTION PER SITE That was the age distribution when looking at these Some observations on age distribution: Bebo appeals to a much younger audience than the other sites with 44% of its users being aged 17 or less. For MySpace, this number is also large; 33%. Classmates.com has the largest share of users being aged 65 or more, 8% , and 78% are 35 or older. 64% of Twitter’s users are aged 35 or older. 61% of Facebooks’s users are aged 35 or older. with the “youngest” site showing at the top and the “oldest” at the bottom. RP-STUDY a SAMPLE STUDY-SOCIAL NETWORK USERS a SAMPLE STUDY SAMPLE STUDY by RP
8. DOMINANT AGE GROUPS Most of the social networks we included are dominated by the age group 35-44 , which was apparent in the first chart in this article. This group has become the most “social” age group out there. This is the generation of people who were in their 20s as the Web took off in the mid ‘90s. If we look at which age groups are the largest for each site, RP get the following distribution: 0 – 17: Tops 4 out of 19 sites (21%) 18 – 24: Tops no site 25 – 34: Tops 1 out of 19 sites (5%) 35 – 44: Tops 11 out of 19 sites (58%) 45 – 54: Tops 3 out of 19 sites (16%) 55 – 64: Tops no site 65 or older: Tops no site It’s a bit surprising that not one single site had the age group 18–24 as its largest, but that can be explained by this interval being a bit smaller than the other ones (it spans seven years, not 10 as most of the others). That the two oldest age groups don’t top any of the sites probably doesn’t surprise anyone, though. RP-STUDY a SAMPLE STUDY-SOCIAL NETWORK USERS a SAMPLE STUDY SAMPLE STUDY by RP
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10. ON THE SOCIAL WEB - AGE IS A FACTOR Although RP can’t say how this will change over time, at the moment the older generations are for one reason or another (tech savvy, interest, etc.) not using social networking sites to a large extent. This probably reflects general internet usage, but we suspect the difference is enhanced when it comes to the social media sphere where site usage tends to be more frequent and time-consuming than usual. It is also noteworthy that social media isn’t dominated by the youngest, often most tech-savvy generations, but rather by what has to be referred to as middle-aged people (although at the younger end of that spectrum). RP-STUDY a SAMPLE STUDY-SOCIAL NETWORK USERS a SAMPLE STUDY SAMPLE STUDY by RP
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15. I don’t know the distribution of ages in the general population of all living people among these age brackets. But it’s something one could look up at http://www.census.gov in a half hour. I raise this because I don’t care how the usage is spread among age groups. What I care about is what percentage of 18 year olds can be found on Facebook, and what percentage of 50 year olds, etc. There are a kajillion other relevant issues, like who uses Facebook for family only versus who uses it to join groups or cruise fan pages. The time online each day is very relevant. But all along, when I’ve heard that my age group (50) is growing the fastest on Facebook, my only question has been, ok, what percentage of my high school class is on Facebook today, versus a year ago, and versus a year from now? My anecdotal experience is that critical mass was reached a while back and soon everybody who participates in economic, intellectual, and civic life (i.e. everybody except the world’s Unabombers and weird cult members) needs to be there. Pretty interesting study. Average age of 37 is quiet high. As this study is fr US where demographic curve may be higher around 35 range, it would be true. For developing countries like India where the population is relatively younger the average age would be quiet less. What I think is the average age of population can be a good reflection . And btw, I think this social networking can also be used in UN indexes of Development what say? And so on…. RP-STUDY COMMENTS about RP STUDY a SAMPLE STUDY a SAMPLE STUDY-SOCIAL NETWORK USERS SAMPLE STUDY by RP