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©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
PETER J. STEWART
OCTOBER 10, 2017
SECURE, SUSTAINABLE
WOOD FIBER FROM THE
US TO GLOBAL MARKETS
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
FOREST2MARKET
INTRODUCTION
Forest2Market’s Mission
2
Empower participants in the global forest, wood products, paper products,
biochemical and bioenergy industries to make exponentially better decisions
through the strategic application of industry expertise and unique datasets.
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
A HISTORY OF
POSITIVE CHANGE
3
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
FOREST2MARKET
MARKET COVERAGE
4
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
FOREST2MARKET
MARKET COVERAGE
5
US PNW & BC
EASTERN US
& CANADA
US SOUTH
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
BETTER BUSINESS
MODEL
6
The only way to achieve a true measure and
understanding of the market is to collect transactional
data.
The foundation of all Forest2Market products and
services is our unique, current and proprietary database
of wood raw material transactions and the underlying
extensive data collection infrastructure that enables us to
collect millions of market transactions every year.
Forest2Market is a neutral third-party, independent in ownership and structure. While actively
involved in the industries we serve, we do not buy or sell timberland, timber, lumber or biomass.
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
OUR PROMISE
7
QUALITY
• Results cannot be manipulated.
• Data is rigorously validated.
CONFIDENTIALITY
• Customer data is always secure.
• Data is collected, and results are disseminated, anonymously.
ACCURACY
• Result are volume weighted.
• Every transaction is counted.
COMPLIANCE
• All products are compliant with US and EU laws.
• We are a neutral and independent source of market information.
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
AGENDA
8
OVERVIEW OF US FORESTS
• Inventory changes
• Forest Certifications
DEMAND GROWS TREES
• More demand more trees
• Inputs necessary
GLOBAL FIBER COMPETITIVENESS
• Low cost fiber at what risk?
ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
• Is timberland ownership profitable and therefore sustainable?
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
INVENTORIES ARE
INCREASING ACROSS
THE UNITED STATES
9
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CubicFeet(billions)
Annual Timberland Inventory by Region
South: +1.3% annually
PNW: +0.7% annually
North: +0.4% annually
Total: +1.0% annually
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
10
OVERVIEW OF US FORESTS
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
REMOVALS ARE
SMALL COMPARED TO
TOTAL INVENTORY
11
Percentages are removals
divided by inventory
Growth has outpaced
removals by 40% on average
since 2008 (GRR=1.40)
2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CubicFeet(billions)
Removals Relative to Inventory – United States
Removals
Inventory
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
PELLETS ARE A SMALL
PART OF THE MARKET
12
-
50
100
150
200
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
Tonnes(Millions)
Total Pulp Total Paper Pellets
Image: NAFO.
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
US FORESTS ARE
CERTIFIED TO PEFC &
FSC STANDARDS
13
PEFC (SFI) has wider acceptance FSC more limited
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
WIDESPREAD ADOPTION
OF SUSTAINABILITY
CERTIFICATIONS
14
Widespread adoption but a fraction of the total timberland acres –
70% forest in private ownership – supply chain implications and the
importance of other certification systems
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
WIDESPREAD ADOPTION
OF SUSTAINABILITY
CERTIFICATIONS
15
Metric Acres (millions)
Timberland 506.1
Total PEFC 80.7
-SFI 61.2
-ATFS 19.6
Total FSC 35.8
Both PEFC & FSC 20.7
Total Certified 95.8
% Certified 19%
95 million acres
certified out of 506
million or about
19%
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
16
DEMAND GROWS TRESSDEMAND GROWS TREES
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
DEMAND DRIVES
PRODUCTIVITY
1. As demand for forest products has increased,
timberlands in the US South have become
increasingly productive.
2. Increased demand for wood has not depleted forests.
3. Landowners responded to greater demand by
investing in the future growth of their forests.
4. The evidence is clear: Increases in removals are associated
with more timberland acres, better growth and larger
inventories.
17
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
DEMAND FOR FOREST
PRODUCTS HAS
INCREASED STEADILY
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120 1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
Removals(BCF)
ProductionIndex(2000=100)
US Forest Products Production
vs. US South Timberland Removals
Sawnwood Plywood / Particle Board Pulp Paper Total Removals
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
BUT FORESTS HAVE
GROWN
19
0
200
0
125
250
375
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
2013
Acres(millions)
Inventory(BCF) Annual Timberland Acres and Inventory
New Inventory (Cumulative Surplus Growth) Baseline (1953) Inventory Timberland Acres
Acres +3%
Total Inventory +108%
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
DEMAND
ENCOURAGED
PRODUCTIVITY
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
2013
Growth(CF/Acre)
Annual Timberland Growth per Acre
by Ownership Group
Private Public Total
0
2
4
6
8
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
CF/AcreatHarvest(1000s)
Seedling Establishment Decade
Contribution of Management Practices to Pine
Plantation Productivity
Natural Stand Planting Site Preparation
Fertilization Weed Control Tree Improvement
Clonal and Biotech
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
RELATIONSHIPS ARE
STATISTICALLY
SIGNIFICANT
21
R² = 0.9026-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
PrivateSoftwoodInventory
(BillionCF)
Private Softwood Removals
(Billion CF)
Private Softwood Removals vs. Inventory, 1968-2015
Pearson Correlations (p-values)
Softwood Removals
Softwood Acres
0.93056
(p<.0001)
Softwood Inventory
0.95007
(p<.0001)
Softwood Growth
0.91452
(p<.0001)
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
PELLETS ARE A SMALL
PART OF THE MARKET
22
-
50
100
150
200
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
Tonnes(Millions)
Total Pulp Total Paper Pellets
Image: NAFO.
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
23
GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
GLOBAL CONIFER
PRICES
Brazil and US
South are lowest
cost fiber areas
24
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
GLOBAL HARDWOOD
& EUCALYPTUS
PRICES
Brazil and US
South lowest cost
(ex-fx)
25
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
GLOBAL SOFTWOOD
SAWTIMBER PRICING
US South is
competitive –
looks more like
developing
economies without
the risk
26
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
27
TIMBER PROFITS ENSURE
SUSTAINABILITY
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
COSTS OF PLANTING
AND RETURNS OVER
TIME
28
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
1997 2017 %IRR
$/Acre
Expenses Revenues IRR
32 Year Rotation 25 Year Rotation
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YTD2017
USDpergreenshortton
Forest2Market US South Pine Stumpage Prices
Pine Sawtimber (14" DBH) Pine Pulpwood
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
CONCLUSIONS
29
OVERVIEW OF US FORESTS
• Inventory growing
• Certifications adequate but limiting if too restrictive
DEMAND GROWS TREES
• More demand the better
• Market response is positive to increased fiber demand
GLOBAL FIBER COMPETITIVENESS
• Low cost and low risk
ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
• Timberland ownership continues to be profitable
©2017 Forest2Market, Inc.
CONTACT
30
Peter J. Stewart
President/CEO
+1.980.233.4010
pete.stewart@forest2market.com
Forest2Market
15720 Brixham Hill Ave Suite 550
Charlotte, NC 28277
USA

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Secure, Sustainable Wood Fiber from the US to Global Markets

  • 1. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. PETER J. STEWART OCTOBER 10, 2017 SECURE, SUSTAINABLE WOOD FIBER FROM THE US TO GLOBAL MARKETS
  • 2. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. FOREST2MARKET INTRODUCTION Forest2Market’s Mission 2 Empower participants in the global forest, wood products, paper products, biochemical and bioenergy industries to make exponentially better decisions through the strategic application of industry expertise and unique datasets.
  • 3. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. A HISTORY OF POSITIVE CHANGE 3
  • 5. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. FOREST2MARKET MARKET COVERAGE 5 US PNW & BC EASTERN US & CANADA US SOUTH
  • 6. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. BETTER BUSINESS MODEL 6 The only way to achieve a true measure and understanding of the market is to collect transactional data. The foundation of all Forest2Market products and services is our unique, current and proprietary database of wood raw material transactions and the underlying extensive data collection infrastructure that enables us to collect millions of market transactions every year. Forest2Market is a neutral third-party, independent in ownership and structure. While actively involved in the industries we serve, we do not buy or sell timberland, timber, lumber or biomass.
  • 7. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. OUR PROMISE 7 QUALITY • Results cannot be manipulated. • Data is rigorously validated. CONFIDENTIALITY • Customer data is always secure. • Data is collected, and results are disseminated, anonymously. ACCURACY • Result are volume weighted. • Every transaction is counted. COMPLIANCE • All products are compliant with US and EU laws. • We are a neutral and independent source of market information.
  • 8. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. AGENDA 8 OVERVIEW OF US FORESTS • Inventory changes • Forest Certifications DEMAND GROWS TREES • More demand more trees • Inputs necessary GLOBAL FIBER COMPETITIVENESS • Low cost fiber at what risk? ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY • Is timberland ownership profitable and therefore sustainable?
  • 9. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. INVENTORIES ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES 9 0 100 200 300 400 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CubicFeet(billions) Annual Timberland Inventory by Region South: +1.3% annually PNW: +0.7% annually North: +0.4% annually Total: +1.0% annually
  • 11. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. REMOVALS ARE SMALL COMPARED TO TOTAL INVENTORY 11 Percentages are removals divided by inventory Growth has outpaced removals by 40% on average since 2008 (GRR=1.40) 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 0 100 200 300 400 500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CubicFeet(billions) Removals Relative to Inventory – United States Removals Inventory
  • 12. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. PELLETS ARE A SMALL PART OF THE MARKET 12 - 50 100 150 200 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Tonnes(Millions) Total Pulp Total Paper Pellets Image: NAFO.
  • 13. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. US FORESTS ARE CERTIFIED TO PEFC & FSC STANDARDS 13 PEFC (SFI) has wider acceptance FSC more limited
  • 14. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. WIDESPREAD ADOPTION OF SUSTAINABILITY CERTIFICATIONS 14 Widespread adoption but a fraction of the total timberland acres – 70% forest in private ownership – supply chain implications and the importance of other certification systems
  • 15. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. WIDESPREAD ADOPTION OF SUSTAINABILITY CERTIFICATIONS 15 Metric Acres (millions) Timberland 506.1 Total PEFC 80.7 -SFI 61.2 -ATFS 19.6 Total FSC 35.8 Both PEFC & FSC 20.7 Total Certified 95.8 % Certified 19% 95 million acres certified out of 506 million or about 19%
  • 16. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. 16 DEMAND GROWS TRESSDEMAND GROWS TREES
  • 17. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. DEMAND DRIVES PRODUCTIVITY 1. As demand for forest products has increased, timberlands in the US South have become increasingly productive. 2. Increased demand for wood has not depleted forests. 3. Landowners responded to greater demand by investing in the future growth of their forests. 4. The evidence is clear: Increases in removals are associated with more timberland acres, better growth and larger inventories. 17
  • 18. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. DEMAND FOR FOREST PRODUCTS HAS INCREASED STEADILY 18 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 Removals(BCF) ProductionIndex(2000=100) US Forest Products Production vs. US South Timberland Removals Sawnwood Plywood / Particle Board Pulp Paper Total Removals
  • 19. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. BUT FORESTS HAVE GROWN 19 0 200 0 125 250 375 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 Acres(millions) Inventory(BCF) Annual Timberland Acres and Inventory New Inventory (Cumulative Surplus Growth) Baseline (1953) Inventory Timberland Acres Acres +3% Total Inventory +108%
  • 20. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. DEMAND ENCOURAGED PRODUCTIVITY 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013 Growth(CF/Acre) Annual Timberland Growth per Acre by Ownership Group Private Public Total 0 2 4 6 8 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 CF/AcreatHarvest(1000s) Seedling Establishment Decade Contribution of Management Practices to Pine Plantation Productivity Natural Stand Planting Site Preparation Fertilization Weed Control Tree Improvement Clonal and Biotech
  • 21. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. RELATIONSHIPS ARE STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT 21 R² = 0.9026- 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 PrivateSoftwoodInventory (BillionCF) Private Softwood Removals (Billion CF) Private Softwood Removals vs. Inventory, 1968-2015 Pearson Correlations (p-values) Softwood Removals Softwood Acres 0.93056 (p<.0001) Softwood Inventory 0.95007 (p<.0001) Softwood Growth 0.91452 (p<.0001)
  • 22. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. PELLETS ARE A SMALL PART OF THE MARKET 22 - 50 100 150 200 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Tonnes(Millions) Total Pulp Total Paper Pellets Image: NAFO.
  • 24. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. GLOBAL CONIFER PRICES Brazil and US South are lowest cost fiber areas 24
  • 25. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. GLOBAL HARDWOOD & EUCALYPTUS PRICES Brazil and US South lowest cost (ex-fx) 25
  • 26. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. GLOBAL SOFTWOOD SAWTIMBER PRICING US South is competitive – looks more like developing economies without the risk 26
  • 27. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. 27 TIMBER PROFITS ENSURE SUSTAINABILITY
  • 28. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. COSTS OF PLANTING AND RETURNS OVER TIME 28 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 1997 2017 %IRR $/Acre Expenses Revenues IRR 32 Year Rotation 25 Year Rotation $- $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 $50 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD2017 USDpergreenshortton Forest2Market US South Pine Stumpage Prices Pine Sawtimber (14" DBH) Pine Pulpwood
  • 29. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. CONCLUSIONS 29 OVERVIEW OF US FORESTS • Inventory growing • Certifications adequate but limiting if too restrictive DEMAND GROWS TREES • More demand the better • Market response is positive to increased fiber demand GLOBAL FIBER COMPETITIVENESS • Low cost and low risk ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY • Timberland ownership continues to be profitable
  • 30. ©2017 Forest2Market, Inc. CONTACT 30 Peter J. Stewart President/CEO +1.980.233.4010 pete.stewart@forest2market.com Forest2Market 15720 Brixham Hill Ave Suite 550 Charlotte, NC 28277 USA