S-curve
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- 2. Why S-Curve isimportant Important for technology organization How supply demand and profit works How investment will work against the return How new market can be created S-curve is a tool that can be used to evaluate the technology opportunity for business Explains how technology evolves and displace Support investment decision related to technology stream but may be different application opportunity After every new S-curve, function supporting the technology remain same, however the use of technology brings different business opportunity
- 3. Defining system Most commonway to define a system is Engine Transmission Actuator Work Control Power • Function of the system remain same • Technology brings change in every block of the system, results in improving systems functionality • Use of deferent technology shifts the market and end customer segment
- 4. Pattern of evolution Berth of idea Evolution toward increase ideality Non- uniform development of system element – result in contradiction Evolution toward increased dynamism and controllability Increase complexity then simplification through integration Evolution with matching and mismatching elements Transition from macro system to micro system and increase use of field for better performance and control Evolution toward decreased human involvement
- 5. S-Curve : ProductEvolution New system establish its volume and market potential. Early adaptors drive market MUF performance if the system grows rapidly. Establish value gain to early adaptor Improved performance and becoming better and better than the old system. Join large follower group. New system is trying to enter several market segment, merge with new technology. Better control, more variants, close loop system get added. Profit made by new system increase sustainability with improvement of its main performance, generate new resources, support new ideas related to new systems People explore more application of the new system, it enter more different areas, system become integral part of original super system. Increase operational efficiency of user New system starts with a promising idea and uses, many parts come from old system Providing some new function through its main system, performance is worst than old system The new system have to resolve the problems in order to work properly and work better than older one. Few new components get added System become very popular, this system starts consuming resources, new super-system get developed to support main (new) system. Automation starts MUF performance of the system is reaching its limit, technology become available to everyone , exchange of technology starts, introduction of new from, system size reduce for new market, target new customer, system start becoming intelligent Adding more additional function to the system to increase the value to customer, supporting technology incursion, enhance value, comfort, usability and safety etc. New system become old, overuse brings limitation / regulation made by human, new ideas to overcame limitations – consumes more internal recourses ( R&D, cost-out etc) which reduce profitability Increase ideality, reduce WEST ( Wight, Energy, Sources and Time) eliminate HE (harmful effect). Automation limit reach Start decline stage New generation has better MUF than the old one System based on new principle should be considered The old system start getting replaced / eliminated with new one, establish use in special areas and move to utility usage Main function of the system changed. S-curve switched over to new system Performance People investment and support the improvement in the new system MUF Time Template for mapping product / technology evolution
- 6. S-Curve : Drivingbusiness strategy Performance ofsystem Numberof invention Levelofinvention What is a scope for development of the system How the market trended will be moving Who are the user of system Acquisition of technology Development of human resource Investment in R&D against ROI IP strategy Effort in R&D and IP spending
- 7. S-Curve : Drivingbusiness strategy ProfitHarmfulfactor Investment maturity period and expected returns Company acquisition / merger Government policy for support & infrastructure investment Environmental / health related issues and norms
- 8. Questions to beasked What the S-curve of your product tells ? Which stage is the product in ? How to estimate it ? Dose the performance of the product reach its limit ? Why dose such limit exist ? How to increase this limit ? When should the next S-curve be considered ? Is change in MUF of change in work form ? Dose your product get affected due to change in work form ? Dose product with present principles can be places in probable S- curve for new work form ?
- 9. S-Curve : TechnologyEvolution System is a product What means Technology – Different Power source Type of engine i.e. method used to convert power into usable form Transmission is a mechanism to move power till the workplace Mechanism to perform the work is Actuator Control is to improve effectiveness of the overall system to do work
- 10. S-Curve : TechnologyEvolution Select the product and define Main Useful Function (MUF) List down the changes in product, economic condition, social behavior, opportunity etc. as per template given Describe : S-curve for product evolution Consider every element in the system / product Define ideality of system and formulate WEST & HE List down, how product is affecting due to change in every element Keep improving ideality as system matures Map the change and effect on product with Product evolution S-curve Describe : S-curve for technology evolution