3 Scar Suomi - Foresight

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This document discusses the potential for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to support the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). It examines the current performance of the CAP and outlines several trends that will shape the future, including population growth, aging populations, climate change, biodiversity loss, urbanization, and migration. The document advocates for an ecological transition in agricultural policy and notes several emerging technologies like 3D food printing and plastic-eating microbes that could impact agriculture by 2050.

Government & Nonprofit

1
SCAR foresight
Adjunct Professor Dr. Johanna Kohl
Foresight Development Manager
in Bioeconomy and Circular Economy

Sustainable development goals is a puzzle
Kohl Johanna (2018) https://www.luke.fi/en/blog/sustainable-development-
goals-sdg-are-more-than-just-nicely-coloured-icons-a-puzzle/

CAP and SDGs
The potential relevance, and current performance of the Common Agricultural
Policy (CAP) toward supporting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
http://science.sciencemag.org/ on August 7, 2019

Transformation
Niche
Transition
Regime
Reproduction
Landscape
Outsiders
develop new
innovations
Change pressure from
the landscape
Pressure from
external actors
No external pressure
Superficial
adaptations in
practices
Entrenched actors
redirect innovation
activities
Understanding systemic changes is essential
Proteiinia
ilmasta
Uusi
CAP
Väestön
kasvu

7
Population growth
Data Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social
Affairs

8
Ageing
Ratio of working age people vs elderly in
2017. Source of data: UN/DESA/PD, 2017

10
Urbanisation
Urban percentage of overall population by region, 1950–2050. Source: Global Panel on
Agriculture and Food Systems for Nutrition, 2016)

11
Climate change
Cumulative emissions of CO2. Source: IPCC, 2018.

13
Trendit kertovat tulevaisuudesta – halusimme tai emme
1750 – 2010 sosioekonomiset mittarit ja muutos
Source: Steffen W et al. 2015. Planetary boundaries: Guiding
human development on a changing planet. Science 347

Motto
‘Protecting our planet and our shared environment is our generation’s
defining task. It is an urgent moral, human and political obligation ….
Those who act first and fastest will be the ones who grasp the
opportunities from the ecological transition.’
Ursula von der Leyen, President, European Commissioni
19.11.201914

Ruuan 3D
printtaus
https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/resear
ch_and_innovation/knowledge_publications_t
ools_and_data/documents/ec_rtd_radical-
innovation_poster_052019.pdf
Muovia
syövät
mikrogit
Geenieditointi
Nämä jo
nyt –
2050?

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